Chaos Theory 4-25-09

Post date: Apr 25, 2009 3:52:52 PM

Remember Jeff Goldblum's character ranting about chaos theory in "Jurassic Park?" That's when it sprang into the public consciousness and then quickly faded. According to Wikipedia:

In mathematics, chaos theory describes the behavior of certain dynamical systems – that is, systems whose states evolve with time – that may exhibit dynamics that are highly sensitive to initial conditions (popularly referred to as the butterfly effect). As a result of this sensitivity, which manifests itself as an exponential growth of perturbations in the initial conditions, the behavior of chaotic systems appears to be random. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future dynamics are fully defined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos.

Uh right. IMHO puts it more succinctly:

The name "chaos theory" comes from the fact that the systems that the theory describes are apparently disordered, but chaos theory is really about finding the underlying order in apparently random data.

I think they were talking about doing agility with an adolescent male Golden Retriever. My search for the "underlying order" amid the chaos is ongoing.

I'm not really sure what's happening anymore--it's a kaleidoscopic mix of good and bad. At our last 3 trials (AKC agility in Dixon, Rally in Vallejo, USDAA agility in Dixon) we had bad sniffing episodes. I walked Trevor off the Rally course in Vallejo (only Exc B dog to NQ), and off 2 out of 4 courses at the USDAA trial. I didn't feel like it was having any effect whatsoever. But then at the Malinois trial we just finished (Thurs/Fri) he double-Qed the first day and Qed in JWW the second day. On the other hand, it was WAG--meticulously maintained agility location that isn't saturated with fairground smells. He still tried to sneak in a few sniffs, and it slowed him down. He was heads down in the weaves a few times. But overall I felt like he was trying. I felt like we were gaining a little ground. Or were we?

On one side of the continuum we have the arrogant "sniff-and-ignore-Mom" behavior. On the other side of the continuum, we have the obstacle phobias and excessive concern about "weird judge person in my space." It's a challenging combination. Speaking of which, I thought we had put the last of our obstacle phobias behind us. No such luck. Yesterday I decided to stick around for FAST course since it looked doable, and we just need one more leg for our XF. The send bonus was tunnel-jump-chute. It was the same chute that Trevor had done with no problems on the Std courses. But when he got to the chute on the "send," he stuck his head in and then popped back out. I stepped across the line to help him. He STILL would not go in. Yes, it was windy, but it had been windy for the whole trial. I wanted to scream in frustration. When will I learn? This is about the zillionth time I've rekindled an obstacle phobia by trying to get him to do the obstacle in a distance challenge. Now once again, we're back to square one. I wasn't planning to go to the USDAA SMART trial tomorrow, but now I probably will, just to try to get Trevor in a few chutes before the Rottweiler AKC trial on Monday.

Patterns

Sometimes I wonder if the patterns I see are a product of my own fevered imagination. Maybe it really is all chaotic and random. But here are the patterns I see at the moment:

Dixon is a very sniffy place. It is the capital of interesting dog smells. Just ask Touki. It's also the agility "extreme weather" capital.
People have asked me if Trevor is better on the first day of a trial--i.e., does he mentally hit the wall and burn out by the second day? No, in reviewing my spreadsheet, he actually has a slightly better track record on the second day.
Trevor is still very distracted by people inside and outside the ring.
He is most likely to sniff in the first third of the course, beginning with the start line. If the weaves are close to the beginning of the course, the sniff risk is a lot higher. I'm exploring the possibility that "weaves to nowhere" (i.e., no obvious next obstacle) encourage more sniffing too. I was surprised on Std yesterday when he did the weaves without looking at the judge even though she was hovering right next to us.
Bad experiences on Gamblers, Jackpot (CPE Gamblers), and FAST have been a major factor in Trevor's obstacle phobias--not in starting them, but in sparking a new round of refusals. It's very tempting to do stupid things on these types of courses, and we seem to pay the price every time.
I've been experimenting, and the best system seems to be to get to trial sites early and walk Trevor around the rings so that he can see everything. But then it seems to go better if I get him out right before his run. If he has a lot of time to sniff and look around before his run, it seems to make things worse once we get in the ring.
I've been experimenting with leadouts too. Since he started breaking his start line stays, I'm doing short leadouts and trying to release him as quickly as possible--no more meandering out to my position and futzing around. I want to make him successful and keep the connection and motivation up. New system seems to be working better. He didn't break at the Malinois trial, and his head only went down to sniff once at the start line.
In general, I think I need to pick up the pace and keep him moving. Even in his 2o/2o, he will try to take the opportunity to sniff and look around.
I'm not sure what he's primarily sniffing for. Rodents? Food? Females? All of the above? I don't think it's stress sniffing--it's very purposeful.

Decisions

Trevor has an appointment to get neutered on May 11. This was not an easy decision for me. Despite the common perception that neutering is all upside, I do think there are health risks (ref-1, ref-2). But it's not clear to what extent these risks are tied to early s/n vs. neutering, period. On the other hand, the proponents of keeping male dogs intact don't talk about the downside. Rowan was unbearable before he got neutered (we waited until he was 2 because of his elbow dysplasia--wanted to let him fill out). As an intact male, Rowan would have been consigned to spending most of his life on leash. He was unpredictable and wildly over-stimulated in public. He wasn't aggressive himself, but his behavior was so obnoxious that it inspired aggression in others. In public he had zero focus on me or even his ball. He was always scanning the horizon, looking for a person or dog to run after. Suffice it to say that Rowan is the poster boy for the benefits of neutering. Anyway, it was no small task wading through the data and trying to figure out when or even if to neuter Trevor. But he had been targeted multiple times at agility trials (bitten twice, charged twice), he seemed to be getting increasingly female-obsessed, and I didn't want him to end up like other intact males I know, who are incapable of focusing on work. Of course there are exceptions (Trevor's dad Ted), but they're exactly that--exceptions. Finally, managing any intact male is a big responsibility. Managing an intact male who has PRA is a whole other level of magnitude. So May 11 is the day. I hope it helps Trevor to sniff less and focus more. But even if it doesn't, I am at peace with the decision.
No more Rally trials for now. Rally has become an invitation to ignore Mom and sniff. I think it's just reinforcing that behavior. So until Trevor has a chance to grow up some more, we're going to put Rally on hold. Instead, I'm considering taking him to a local outdoor obedience class. He'll be on grass surrounded by other dogs. I think that's what we need to directly work on the sniffing issue.
Stop doing dumb things on FAST/Gamblers/Jackpot. Never attempt a distance challenge that includes a teeter or a chute, lest we enter a new round of refusals. Never make up a course that has a bad flow or that violates our handling system. Finish our XF and stop entering FAST, unless (goD forbid) AKC makes it a real requirement, or (ideally) enforces a more reasonable standard for FAST course design.