The Geoeconomics of Contract Enforcement (with Elena Paltseva and Marta Troya-Martinez)
Abstract. Historically, contract enforcement between multinationals and host governments relied on military power. In the late 1960s, Western Great Powers (WGP) - U.S., U.K., France - sharply reduced military interventions, increasing expropriation risk in weak-institution countries. We study the effect of this unanticipated global shift using microdata from the petroleum industry. Firms headquartered in WGP responded by delaying (“backloading”) production by 2-4 years, converging to the delays already exhibited by other multinationals. Backloading resulted in annual revenue losses of $1 billion per country, largely offset by higher government rent-shares. These patterns are consistent with the formation of self-enforcing agreements.
Media: VoxEU.org, FREE Network
Learning with Economists in Petro-Rich Economies: Climate Change Policies in Russia (with Anton Suvorov)
Abstract. We study how to communicate climate policy in fossil-fuel-dependent economies. For international comparability,we build on the survey of Dechezlepr.tre et al. (2025) inRussia, adapting it to the local context and adding novel elements: (i) treatments referencing the national Climate Doctrine (presidential decree) and (ii) measures of trust in scientists from different fields. Russians’ climate beliefs and knowledge broadly mirror those in other countries, though skepticism is higher in fossil-fuel-rich regions. Physics-based videos raise factual understanding, while economically framed messages reduce policy support, consistent with cost salience and low trust in economists. Political authority cues, by contrast, raise support.
Working Paper December 2025, [ssrn]
Fuelling Development (with Hosny Zoabi)
Abstract. This paper examines the 1900 California oil boom to reframe the debate on productive versus unproductive wealth. Contrary to the "resource curse" narrative, we demonstrate that the discovery triggered a unique structural transformation, fostering a horizontally diversified, industrial economy. We highlight financial deepening as a central channel: oil rents, entering banks as deposits, increased credit supply and lowered interest rates. The cheaper capital simultaneously financed the rise of manufacturing and the mechanization of agriculture. California’s unique success, transforming resource wealth into broad-based development, illustrates that oil can be a blessing. It thus serves as a policy-relevant historical blueprint for leveraging resource wealth to build a resilient, diversified economy.
Fuelling Autocracies (with Jonas Hveding Hamang and Torfinn Harding and J. Juel Andersen)
Rules vs. Courts in Procurement (with Marta Troya-Martinez and Dzhamilya (Jamila) Nigmatulina)
The Limits of Compensation: Adjustments to Industrial Collapse (with Stephen Kastoryano and Carl Singleton and Paul Telemo)
8. Enemies of the People Working Paper (last version)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2025 17 (1) 310-342 (with Pierre-Louis Vézina)
Media: The Economist, A Correction Podcast, ABC Radio Australia, VoxEU.org, FREE Network, Novaya Gazeta, Presentation at AEA 2021, Presentation at Economics of Migration Seminar (in English), Presentation at Memorial (in Russian)
7. Job displacement costs of phasing out coal Working Paper (last version)
Journal of Public Economics (short communication), 236, 2024, 105167 (with Michael Simmons, Fernando Aragon and Juan Pablo Rud)
Media: FREE Network
6. Handbook Chapter: FDI and wage inequality (with Marcio Cruz, Gaurav Nayyar, and Pierre-Louis Vézina)
Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics (2023), edited by Klaus F. Zimmermann.
5. Resource discoveries, FDI bonanzas and local multipliers: An illustration from Mozambique Working Paper (last version)
Review of Economics and Statistics 104 (5), 2022, pp. 1046–1058 (with Pierre-Louis Vézina)
Media: VoxDev, The Conversation, IGC blog, IGC Working Paper, RES Media Briefing, Voaportugese-Mozambique, WB-Report, Global Development Blog, FREE Network
4. Handbook Chapter: Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices: Evidence from Kazakhstan (with Victoire Girard and Alma Kudebayeva)
Handbook on the Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources (2021), edited by Stella Tsani and Indra Overland.
Media: FREE Network
3. Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation Working Paper (last version)
The Economic Journal 130, 2020, pp. 1715-1728 (with Torfinn Harding and Radek Stefanski)
Media: VoxEU.org
2. Resource shocks, employment, and gender: evidence from the collapse of the UK coal industry Working Paper (last version)
Labour Economics 52, 2018, pp. 54-67 (with Fernando Aragon and Juan Pablo Rud)
The Relationship Between Oil Price and Costs in the Oil Industry Working Paper (last version)
The Energy Journal 36, 2015, pp. 237-254 (with Alexander Naumov) Special Issue: Papers in Honor of M.A. Adelman