Chris Hope, BA (Univ. of Oxford), MA, PhD (Univ. of Cambridge), is Reader in Policy Modelling, Fellow of Clare Hall, Cambridge Judge Business School, [89 Nobel Laureate] University of Cambridge. In his own words; “Dr Hope was the specialist advisor to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs Inquiry into aspects of the economics of climate change, and an advisor on the PAGE model to the Stern review on the Economics of Climate Change. He has published extensively in books and peer-reviewed journals. He has recently completed PAGE09, the latest version of the PAGE integrated assessment model… Dr Hope previously lectured at the Department of Fuel and Energy, University of Leeds, from 1983-1986… Dr Hope previously lectured at the Department of Fuel and Energy, University of Leeds, from 1983-1986… A lead author and review editor for the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded a half share of the Nobel Peace Prize, 2007, Faculty Lifetime Achievement Award from the European Academy of Business in Society and the Aspen Institute, 2007… Research interests numerical information in public policy; policy analysis of the greenhouse effect; the integrated assessment modelling of climate change” (see: http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/research/faculty/hopec.html ).
Dr Chris Hope and colleagues on the threat of 50Gt methane from East Siberian Arctic Shelf: (2013): “Economic time bomb. As the amount of Arctic sea ice declines at an unprecedented rate, the thawing of offshore permafrost releases methane. A 50-gigatonne (Gt) reservoir of methane, stored in the form of hydrates, exists on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. It is likely to be emitted as the seabed warms, either steadily over 50 years or suddenly. Higher methane concentrations in the atmosphere will accelerate global warming and hasten local changes in the Arctic, speeding up sea-ice retreat, reducing the reflection of solar energy and accelerating the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The ramifications will be felt far from the poles… To quantify the effects of Arctic methane release on the global economy, we used PAGE09. This integrated assessment model calculates the impacts of climate change and the costs of mitigation and adaptation measures… The methane pulse will bring forward by 15–35 years the average date at which the global mean temperature rise exceeds 2°C above pre-industrial levels — to 2035 for the business-as-usual scenario and to 2040 for the low-emissions case (see 'Arctic methane'). This will lead to an extra $60 trillion (net present value) of mean climate-change impacts for the scenario with no mitigation, or 15% of the mean total predicted cost of climate-change impacts (about $400 trillion)." [1].
[Editor’s note: The Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CH4 on a 20 year time frame and with aerosol impacts considered is 105 times that of CO2 [2, 3]. The German WBGU (2009) and the Australian Climate Commission (2013) have estimated that no more than 600 billion tonnes of CO2 can be emitted between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050 if the world is to have a 75% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise [4, 5]. The 50 Gt (billion tonnes) CH4 in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. is thus equivalent to 50 billion tonnes CH4 x 105 tonnes CO2-equivalent/tonne CH4 = 5,250 tonnes CO2-e or about NINE(9) times more than the world’s terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution budget. We are doomed unless we can stop this Arcic CH4 release.
[1]. Gail Whiteman, Chris Hope and Peter Wadhams, “Vast costs of Arctic change”, Nature, 499, 25 July 2013: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v499/n7459/pdf/499401a.pdf and http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v499/n7459/full/499401a.html .
[2]. Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch , Gavin A. Schmidt , Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions”, Science, 30 October 2009:
Vol. 326 no. 5953 pp. 716-718: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716 .
[3]. Shindell et al (2009), Fig.2: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.figures-only .
[4]. WBGU, “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach”: http://www.ecoequity.org/2009/10/solving-the-climate-dilemma-the-budget-approach/ .
[5]. Australian Climate Commission, “The critical decade 2013: a summary of climate change science, risks and responses”, 2013, p7: http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/The-Critical-Decade-2013-Summary_lowres.pdf .