Forecasting, Scenarios, Trends
Open Access e-Books
(See also: Sustainability...; Change...; Geopolitics)
Future Intelligence
: The World in 2050 - Enabling Governments, Innovators, and Businesses to Create a Better Future
Publisher: Springer Cham
Year of publication: 2023
FREE DOWNLOAD: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-36382-5
The first quarter of the 21st century introduced the world to rapid uncertainty, be it the social-political and financial crises, or pandemics, or the shaking up of well-established democracies with an increasing rise in populism. At the same time, the technological promise has taken off with automation, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnologies increasingly becoming an economic reality. This open-access book brings together experts of specific domains, through the windows of their experience, and in a crowdsourced fashion, to analyze these world developments to develop an overall view, a compelling case of what we should be prepared for, as we march towards 2050.
Topics covered include the future of leadership, the future of solving global challenges, and designing a way of life in harmony with nature. Other topics include disruptive entrepreneurship, the relevance of geographical borders, game-changing future innovations, education, and networked learning, interplanetary travel, and communication. The book also places an importance on the role of empathy, mindfulness, presence, and sharing becoming the anchors for future decision-making by 2050. Of general interest to anyone eager to understand the future of the world, this book is particularly useful for planners, policymakers, strategists and entrepreneurs.
Contents page:
Front Matter
Introduction to the World 50.0 Movement
Future of Leadership
Future of Governments, Politics and Democracy
Future of Geopolitics
Future of Healthcare
Future of Energy
Future of Climate Change
Future of Transportation
Future of Communication and Interaction
Future of Sex and Gender
Future of Consumption
Future of Food
Future of Families
Future of Homes
Future of Work and Business
Future of Learning and Education
Future of Religion
Future of Entertainment
Resetting the Future: World 50.0
Back Matter
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The Future of Africa
: Challenges and Opportunities
Publisher: Springer
Year of publication: 2021
FREE DOWNLOAD: https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/48231
This open access textbook by Jakkie Cilliers offers a critical introduction to human and economic development prospects in Africa revolving around three questions: where is Africa today, what explains the current state, and, given historical trends and what we know about the world, where do we think the continent will be in 2040? And, a final question: what can we do to create a better tomorrow? It models ambitious progress in health, demographics, agriculture, education, industrialization, technological leapfrogging, increased trade, greater stability, better governance and external support. The book reviews the future of work/jobs, poverty and the impact of climate change. A combined Closing the Gap scenario presents a forecast of what could be possible by 2040. Each chapter suggests which policies might accelerate prospects for each sector. Written in an accessible style, and supported by a range of pedagogical features, this textbook introduces undergraduate and graduate students to the contemporary human and economic development prospects in Africa.
To summarize, the book:
+ Analyzes human and economic development prospects in Africa
+ Aims to examine where African human and economic development will be in 2040
+ Reviews development trends and suggest policies which might accelerate the development process
CONTENTS PAGE:
Front Matter
The Growing Gap
Africa’s Current Path
Health
Getting to Africa’s Demographic Dividend
Wanted: A Revolution in Agriculture
Boosting Education
Poverty, Inequality and Growth
Changing Productive Structures
The Future of Work in Africa
Technological Innovation and the Power of Leapfrogging
Trade and Growth
Prospects for Greater Peace
Good Governance, Democracy and Development
Aid, Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment
Climate Change
Closing the Gap
Back Matter
[Book Author: Jakkie Cilliers]
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Futures Past
: Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century
Publisher: Peter Lang
Year of publication: 2020
FREE DOWNLOAD: https://www.peterlang.com/document/1068889
Few areas in economics are as controversial as economic forecasting. While the field has sparked great hopes for the prediction of economic trends and events throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, economic forecasts have often proved inaccurate or unreliable, thus provoking severe criticism in times of unpredicted crisis. Despite these failures, economic forecasting has not lost its importance. Futures Past considers the history and present state of economic forecasting, giving a fascinating account of the changing practices involved, their origins, records, and their implications. By bringing together economists, historians, and sociologists, this volume offers fresh perspectives on the place of forecasting in modern industrial societies, thereby making a broader claim for greater interdisciplinary cooperation in the history of economics.
Contents page:
List of Authors
Introduction
Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting
Measuring and Managing Expectations: Consumer Confidence as an Economic Indicator, 1920s–1970s
The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and the Public Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland, 1964–1975
The Janus Face of Inflation Targeting: How Governing Market Expectations of the Future Imprisons Monetary Policy in a Normalized Present
Social Interaction, Emotion, and Economic Forecasting
The Dynamics of Expectations: A Sequential Perspective on Macroeconomic Forecasting
Never Change a Losing Horse?: On Adaptations in German Forecasting after the Great Financial Crisis
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Making Sense of the Future
Publisher: Routledge
Year of publication: 2022
FREE DOWNLOAD: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003186854
This book integrates the latest thinking in Future Studies with the author’s expertise in world history, economics, interdisciplinary studies, knowledge organization, and political activism.
The book takes a systems approach that recognizes the complexity of our world. It begins by suggesting a set of goals for human societies and identifying innovative strategies for achieving these goals that could gain broad support. Each chapter begins with a “How to” section that discusses how we can identify goals, strategies, trends, surprises, or implementation strategies and concludes with an integrative analysis that draws connections across the preceding discussions.
Taking a cross-disciplinary approach, Szostak explores key trends and how these interact so that he can develop strategies to guide trends towards desirable futures. He discusses the ways in which we can best prepare for surprises such as epidemics and natural disasters, enabling us to react to them in beneficial ways.
Supported by a list of guiding questions and suggestions for class projects, this is an accessible textbook for students of Future Studies and Future Studies courses.
Contents page:
1. Introduction
2. Setting Societal Goals
3. Plotting Strategies to Achieve Societal Goals
4. Predicting Plausible Futures
5. Coping with Surprises
6. Achieving Desirable Futures
7. Concluding Remarks
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The New Common
: How the COVID-19 Pandemic is Transforming Society
Publisher: Springer Cham
Year of publication: 2021
FREE DOWNLOAD: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65355-2
This open access book presents the scientific views of some fifty experts on how they believe the COVID-19 pandemic is currently affecting society, and how it will continue to do so in the years to come. Using the concept of a “common” (in the sense of common values, common places, common goods, and common sense), they elaborate on the transition from an Old Common to a New Common.
In carefully crafted chapters, the authors address expected shifts in major fields like health, education, finance, business, work, and citizenship, applying concepts from law, psychology, economics, sociology, religious studies, and computer science to do so. Many of the authors anticipate an acceleration of the digital transformation in the forthcoming years, but at the same time, they argue that a successful shift to a new common can only be achieved by re-evaluating life on our planet, strengthening resilience at an individual level, and assuming more responsibility at a societal level.
Contents page:
The Dawn of a New Common
Covid-Spiracy: Old Wine in New Barrels?
Do Not Pass Up the Opportunity!
Internet Access as an Essential Social Good
In-Work Poverty in Times of COVID-19
Being a Collective Jeremiah: The Academic Responsibility to Clarify How Not All Is Well
COVID-19 and the Secular Theodicy: On Social Distancing, the Death of God and the Book of Job
Online Proctoring Put to the Test
Experiences of People with an Intellectual Disability, Their Relatives, and Support Staff with COVID-19: The Value of Vital Supportive Relationships
Labor Supply and Well-Being During the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Crisis in the Netherlands: Lessons from Microdata
The Economy, Nature, and the Meaning of Life After the Coronavirus Crisis
Litigating the Crisis: Towards a Rebalancing of the Rights of Investors Versus Public Interest?
Plus Ça Change…? How the COVID-19 Crisis May Lead to a Revaluation of the Local
Perspectives on the Common: The Input of Literature
Shaping the Post-COVID-19 Agenda: A Call for Responsible Leadership
The Sciences During the New Common: A Missed Opportunity?
Growing Up in Times of COVID-19: When a Window of Opportunity is Temporarily Closed
To Solve the Coronavirus Crisis: Click Here
The Comeback of the Old Theological Narratives During the Coronavirus Crisis: A Critical Reflection
Rethinking Education in a Crisis: How New Is a New Common Really?
Involve Residents to Ensure Person-Centered Nursing Home Care During Crises Like the COVID-19 Outbreak
Crisis Information Management: From Technological Potential to Societal Impact
Efficient Scientific Self-Correction in Times of Crisis
Fortified Nudges? Protecting the Vulnerable in a Post-COVID Society
Can AI Help to Avert the Environmental Great Filter?
Values and Principles as Cornerstones of a Renewed Normal
A New Democratic Norm(al)? Political Legitimacy Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic
Balancing Public Health and Economic Interests Whilst Creating New Opportunities for Labor Migrants
Is COVID-19 a Crime? A Criminological Perspective
There Is an App for That: Technological Solutionism as COVID-19 Policy in the Global North
Fast Forward Science: Risks and Benefits in the Rapid Science of COVID-19
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Sustainability, Human Well-Being, and the Future of Education
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan Cham
Year of publication: 2018
FREE DOWNLOAD: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-78580-6
This open access book explores the key dimensions of a future education system designed to enable individuals, schools, and communities to achieve the twin twenty-first century challenges of sustainability and human well-being. For much of the twentieth century, Western education systems prepared students to enter the workforce, contribute to society and succeed in relatively predictable contexts. Today, people are at the controls of the planet—making decisions that are dramatically reshaping social, economic, and environmental systems at a global scale. What is education’s purpose in this new reality? What and how must we learn now? The volatility and uncertainty caused by digitalization, globalization, and climate change weave a common backdrop through each chapter.
This important book:
Anticipates radical change in society (such as a future without work) and asks what role education, and more importantly learning, should play in that future.
Originates from a long term strategic focus at the Finnish Innovation Fund (Sitra) on developing and working toward a new societal model organized around sustainable well-being.
Includes recommendations for how practitioners, school and system leaders, and communities can carry the work forward.
Contents page:
Learning at the Edge of History
Toward Robust Foundations for Sustainable Well-Being Societies: Learning to Change by Changing How We Learn
Sustainable Wellbeing Society—A Challenge for a Public Sector Institution
Schools as Equitable Communities of Inquiry
Transforming Our Worldview Towards a Sustainable Future
Towards Solving the Impossible Problems
Unlocking the Future of Learning by Redesigning Educator Learning
Four-Dimensional Education for Sustainable Societies
Creativity, the Arts, and the Future of Work
A New Narrative for the Future: Learning, Social Cohesion and Redefining “Us”
Climate Change Education: A New Approach for a World of Wicked Problems
Case Study: Kaospilots—From Passive Listeners to Global Change Agents
Case Study: The Finnish National Curriculum 2016—A Co-created National Education Policy
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Transforming the Future
: Anticipation in the 21st Century
Publisher: Routledge
Year of publication: 2018
FREE DOWNLOAD: https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781351047999
People are using the future to search for better ways to achieve sustainability, inclusiveness, prosperity, well-being and peace. In addition, the way the future is understood and used is changing in almost all domains, from social science to daily life. This book presents the results of significant research undertaken by UNESCO with a number of partners to detect and define the theory and practice of anticipation around the world today. It uses the concept of 'Futures Literacy' as a tool to define the understanding of anticipatory systems and processes - also known as the Discipline of Anticipation. This innovative title explores: " new topics such as Futures Literacy and the Discipline of Anticipation; " the evidence collected from over 30 Futures Literacy Laboratories and presented in 14 full case studies; " the need and opportunity for significant innovation in human decision-making systems. This book will be of great interest to scholars, researchers, policy-makers and students, as well as activists working on sustainability issues and innovation, future studies and anticipation studies.
From the Introduction (by Audrey Azoulay):
"As the French philosopher and sociologist Edgar Morin pointed out, much pain, even conflict, arises from the contradictions we all experience between living in a complex, dynamic and creative world and the rigid, sometimes deterministic, frameworks we use to understand this reality and its evolution, as well as the choices it offers.
This is why being ‘future literate’ is so important. This is about understanding the nature of the future and the role it plays in what we see and do. Evidence shows that people can change how and why they think about the future. Developing this capacity to imagine can be a powerful tool for catalysing change today. Becoming more skilled at designing the systems and processes used to imagine tomorrow is an essential part of empowering women and men with the ‘capacity to be free’, as developed by Martha Nussbaum and Amartya Sen, to craft new approaches to more inclusive and sustainable development.
Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century exemplifies UNESCO as the laboratory of ideas for the United Nations, raising new questions today by changing our understanding of tomorrow. There can be no assurances that the choices we make today will create a better tomorrow – but we can become better able to harness our imagination to grasp the potential of the present and craft ways to act that are consistent with our values. This book opens a new field for innovation in exploring how humanity can live better with the uncertainty and creativity of a complex evolving universe for the benefit of all."
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