India Great Power?

The Author has developed an Index of National Power (VIP) based on economic theory and empiricism of growth, which is relatively simple to estimate. This index allows us to measure historical power of different countries going back to 0, as well as to project the power of different countries into the future. This allowed the author to show in 2004 that China's rise would be much more rapid than any analyst had projected till then (including the National Intelligence Council of the USA) and that the World would become bi polar around 2025. It also allowed author to show (in 2005) that India would become a "Great power" by 2035 and the World would become Tri polar by 2045. Despite India's Economic slowdown in 2012-2013, more recent papers confirm these forecasts and suggest that given appropriate policies India could become a "potential Great Power" by 2030 and a "potential Super Power" by 2040. The following papers and books (by Arvind Virmani), define these concepts precisely and provide more details about the forecasts for India, China, USA (the three poles) and the other countries talked about as potential powers:

1. 1. "Bi-Polar World Order: 2020-2035", Presentation prepared at EGROW Foundation, December 11, 2018. BipolarWrldOrdr2018.pptx .

   2. India's National Security Doctrine: An Approach, June 24, 2016. NatSecStrategy16jun24.docx

   3. "Fall and Rise of India", Working paper No. WsWp 1/2013, October 2013. IndiaEcHistory13Nov01.docx

   4. Economic Power as the Foundation of Global Power : The Evolution of Global Power Potential", Working paper No.WsWp 2/2012, May 2012 [WsWp 2/2012 BalanceOfPower12may.pdf ].

   5. "Global & Asian Balance of Power : Building Institutions for Peace", 4th International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS), Singapore, October 19, 2011. TripolarWrld11SepIRAHSS.pptx

   6. "A Tripolar World: India, China and the USA in the 21^st Century," A talk given at The Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, Washington DC, February 9, 2011. http://carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetail&id=3153 .

   7. From Uni-polar To Tri-polar World: The Multi-polar Transition Paradox, Academic Foundation, Delhi, 2009. Chapter can be downloaded from drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B3Pn0JHQz0H0cU41LTVnNHdtMjQ?resourcekey=0-Fs877AMo2AFxb3rlXY-pVQ&usp=sharing .

   8. “The Economic Foundations of National Power: From Multi polar to Tri-Polar World?” in V. R. Raghavan (Editor), Economic Growth & National Security, Centre for Security Analysis, Chennai, 2008.

   9. “Future Economic Contours of the Asia-Pacific and South Asian Region and Thier Impact on Global Security Architecture,” USI National Security Lecture, 2006, in National Security, Global Strategic Architecture and Information Security, National Security Series, 2006, KW Publishers Pvt Ltd, New Delhi, 2007.

   10. “Global Power From The 18^th To 21^st Century: Power Potential (VIP²), Strategic Assets & Actual Power (VIP),” in Economic Diplomacy, Editor I. P. Khosla, Konarak Publishers, 2006.

   11. "Evolution of World economy and Global Power: From Unipolar to Tripolar World," in Economic Diplomacy, Editor I. P. Khosla, Konarak Publishers, 2006.

   12. Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to Global Power: Growth Process, Vol. I (Policy Reform, Vol. II), Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2006.

   13. "Global Power From The 18^th To 21^st Century: Power Potential (VIP²), Strategic Assets & Actual Power (VIP)," Working Paper No. 175, ICRIER, November 2005.http://icrier.org/pdf/WP175VIPP8.pdf, http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers .

   14. "A Tripolar Century: USA, China and India," Working Paper No. 160, ICRIER, March, 2005. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp160.pdf , http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers .

   15. "Economic Performance, Power Potential and Global Governance: Towards a New International Order," Working Paper No. 150, ICRIER, December 2004. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp150.pdf, http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers.

   16. "Potential Growth Stars of the 21^st Century: India, China and The Asian Century," Occasional Paper, Chintan, October 1999, www.icrier.org/avpapers.html.[ii]