Growth

Economic Welfare of the people of a country depends on their income with which they purchase Private goods to consume, the provision of Public Goods and Services (which only governments can provide) and the Welfare Transfers they receive (net of taxes). Economic growth is critical to all three. Economic growth directly increases peoples income in a competitive market economy. It also increases the revenue receipts of the government, which allows it to provide more and/or better quality (depending on governance) of Public Goods and Services (roads, sewage-water-sanitation, vegitation & parks, public & basic health, public & basic education, personal safety & security, effective legal & judicial service).

India's Economic Growth has accelerated in two phases, following two sets of reforms: First in the 1980s and then in the 1990s. Sustaining growth in the 2000s required continuing policy reforms. Sustaining growth in the future will however requires both economic policy and Institutional reform. These are explored in a number of my papers.

    1. "Growth Implications of Pandemic: Indian Economy," EGROW Working Paper No. 3, Foundation For Economic Growth and Welfare, April, 2020. EGROW WP No 03 2020 b.docx .
    2. "Growth Recession: J Curve of Institutional Reform, Working Paper No.1/2020, Foundation for Economic Growth and Welfare, February 2020, GrRecession_Jcurve_WP2020Feb.docx , March 2020
    3. GrRecession_Jcurve_WP2020March.docx. .
    4. Growth Slowdown, Reforms and Recovery,, https://egrowfoundation.org/research/growth-slowdown-reforms-and-recovery/ .
    5. "Policy Reforms to Reverse slowdown and Accelerate GDP growth," https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=767588630765354778#editor/target=post;postID=427281447325681494;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=0;src=postname .
    6. "Indian Economy 2025-26: Reforms For Target $ 5 Tr", Presentation made in NITI Ayog on July 20, 2019. Target$5tr2025-6.pptx .
    7. "GDP growth 2011-12 to 2018-19," Working Paper No 1/2019, June 2019,GDP2012-19b.docx . (Revised version with expanded concluding section); "Policy Reform for reviving fast growth" https://egrowfoundation.org/research/policy-reforms-for-reversing-slowdown-and-accelerating-gdp-growth/ .
    8. "Investment: Corporate India and Indian Households," Working Paper No. 1/2018, June 2018.
      1. InvestmentFables2017.doc
    9. "Deceleration, De-Monetization and GST: Growth Prospects and Policy Solutions," Working Paper No 2/2017, September 2017. GrowthDeceleration2017sep.docx .
    10. "China's Growth Slowdown and Effect on India," Working paper No 1/2017, February, 2017. ChinaIndia17febWp.docx .
  1. National Reform Agenda: Year One of Modi Government, Policy Paper No. WsPP 5/2015, June 2015, New Delhi. ModiGovt1yr15june.docx .
  2. Indian Growth Puzzle, Policy Paper No. WsPP 3/2015, New Delhi, April 2015. GrowthPuzzle15apr20.docx
    1. China-India GDP growth projections:Summary extracts from 2004 to 2014 (with references to originals). IndiaChinaGrProjs04to14.docx .
    2. "Reform Agenda for Growth and Welfare," Policy Paper No. 1/2014, New Delhi, January 2014. NationalAgenda2020c.docx .
    3. "Indian Growth in Global Perspective," MSE-Sage lecture, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, November 28, 2013. IndiaGlobalPerspective13Nov28.pptx.
    4. "Growth Cannot be Taken for Granted: Need for Urgent Reform," Interview by Prof Charan Singh of IIMB for the IIMB Management Review, November 2013. IIMB144.pdf .
    5. "Fall and Rise of India",Working paper No. WsWp 1/2013, October 2013. IndiaEcHistory13Nov01.docx
  3. “India A Potential High Growth Economy (HGE)?” The Review of Market Integration, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2012, pp 159-195. http://rmi.sagepub.com/content/4/2.toc.
  4. “Accelerating And Sustaining Growth: Economic and Political Lessons,” IMF Working Paper No. WP/12/185, July 2012 [ http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/wp1_sp.aspx?s_year=2012&e_year=2012&brtype=default].
  5. "Sustaining Fast Growth in India : Economic and Political Lessons", Working paper No.WsWp 3/2012, June, 2012 [WsWp 3/2012 HGEIndia1012june30.pdf ]
  6. "Equity, Growth and Policy Change" presentation at the seminar on 'Emerging Challenges: Will India continue the growth momentum?" by PHD Chamber of Commerce & Industry, New Delhi on November 17, 2011. CrisesGrowth11nov17.pptx
  7. “Shaping the Indian miracle: Acceleration towards high growth,”(with Rajeev Malhotra) chapter 3 in Luiz de Melo(ed) Growth and Sustainability in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa, OECD, 2010.
  8. “The J curve of Productivity and Growth: Indian Manufacturing Post-Liberalization,” IMF Working Paper, No WP/11/263. July, 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25029.0.(with Danish Hashim)
  9. “Impact of Major Liberalisation on Indian Manufacturing: The J Curve Hypothesis,” Indian Economic Review, Volume 46, Issue Number 1, 2011 (with Danish Hashim and Ajay Kumar).
  10. “Global Crisis: Impact on Growth Strategies”, Co-lead Presentation at the, Development Debate on Export Competitiveness, Korea Development Institute-World Bank Institute, Seoul Korea, March 10, 2010. http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/WBIvideos/avirmani/avirmani.html .
  11. "Policy Reform : the Agenda of the New Government," July 2009. PolicyReformListing09june9.pdf
    1. “Factor Employment, Sources and Sustainability of Output Growth: Analysis of Indian Manufacturing,” Working paper No. 3/2009-DEA, Ministry of Finance, April 2009. http://finmin.nic.in/WorkingPaper/index.html. (with Danish Hashim)
  12. Growth and Poverty: Policy Implications for Lagging States, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.XLIII, No. 2, January 12-18, 2008.
  13. “The Sudoku of Growth, Poverty and Malnutrition: Lessons For Lagging States,” Working Paper No. 2/2007-PC, Planning Commission, July 2007. http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/index.php?repts=wrkpap.
  14. “Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy,” NBER Working paper No. 12901, February 2007. http://www.nber.org/papers/w12901;(with Barry Bosworth and Susan M. Collins).
  15. India’s Economic Growth History: Fluctuations. Trends, Break Points and Phases, Indian Economic Review, Vol. XXXXI, No. 1, January-June 2006, pp 81-103. (http://www.ierdse.org/ ).
  16. “The Dynamics of Competition: Phasing of Domestic and External Liberalisation in India,” Working Paper No. 4/2006-PC, Planning Commission, April 2006. http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/index.php?repts=wrkpap.
  17. “Sustaining Employment and Equitable Growth: Policies For Structural Transformation Of The Indian Economy,” Working Paper No. 3/2006-PC, Planning Commission, March 2006. http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/index.php?repts=wrkpap.
  18. “Lessons Of Government Failure: Public Goods Provision And Quality of Public Investment,” Working Paper No. 2/2006-PC, Planning Commission, February 2006. http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/index.php?repts=wrkpap.
  19. "Policy Regimes, Growth and Poverty in India: Lessons of Government Failure and Entrepreneurial Success!, Working Paper No. 170, ICRIER, October 2005. http://icrier.org/pdf/WP170GrPov11.pdf, http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers .
  20. Institutions, Governance and Policy Reform: A Framework for Analysis, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XL Nos. 22 & 23, May 28-June 03/June 04-June 10, 2005, pp. 2341-2350
  21. China’s Socialist Market Economy: Lessons Of Success, Working Paper No. 178, ICRIER, December 2005. http://icrier.org/pdf/Wp178China.pdf, http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers .
  22. "Sources of India’s Economic Growth: Trends in Total Factor Productivity," Working Paper No. 131, ICRIER, May 2004. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp131.pdf , http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers .
  23. "Competitive Access to Telecom: Spectrum Policy and M&A," Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XXXIX No. 7, February 14-20, 2004.
  24. "India’s Economic Growth: From Socialist Rate of Growth to Bharatiya Rate of Growth," Working Paper No. 122, ICRIER, February 2004. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp122.pdf , http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers .
  25. A New Development Paradigm: Employment, Entitlement and Empowerment’, Global Business Review, International Management Institute, SAGE Publications, Vol. 3, No. 2, July-December, 2002, pp. 222-45.
  26. A New Development Paradigm: Employment, Entitlement and Empowerment, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XXXVII No. 22, June 1-7, 2002, pp. 2145-2154.
    1. “Excess Food Stocks, PDS and Procurement Policy,” Planning Commission Working Paper No. 5/2002PC, December 2001. http://www.planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/wp_pds.pdf. (with P. V. Rajeev)
  27. A Communication Policy for the 21st Century, Economic and Political Weekly, Volume XXXV, No. 23, June 3-9, 2000, pp. 1907-1910.[ii]
  28. "Star Performers of the 20th (21st) Century: Asian Tigers, Dragons or Elephants," Occasional Paper, Chintan, September 1999, www.icrier.org/avpapers.html.[i]
  29. "Potential Growth Stars of the 21st Century: India, China and The Asian Century," Occasional Paper, Chintan, October 1999, www.icrier.org/avpapers.html.[ii]
  30. Size and Role of Government: Quality vs. Quantity of Intervention, Indian Economic Journal, Vol. 37, No. 4, April-June 1990.[iv]
  31. Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behaviour in Developing Countries, The World Bank Economic Review, Volume 3, No. 3, 1989, pp. 179-193 (with L. K. Raut).

More Policy papers at www.chintanlive.org