Introduction
The historical development of mobile communications
Worldwide digitalization has been enabled by the successive mobile communications generations over the past three decades. Each generation has introduced new use cases and technical capabilities, while optimizing the use cases of the previous generation. Overall, technology can be seen to serve an enabling role in mobile communications. In this historical development, the commercialization cycle of mobile communications has followed three steps:- definition,
- standardization and implementation, and
- deployment and use.
StandardizationThe worldwide success of mobile communications from the first generation onward can be seen to be largely founded on the initially proprietary technologies that have subsequently been transferred into a series of standards. Each new technology generation has required a decade of billions of euros investment in research and development to formalize technological innovations into standards and further into hardware and software products and services. Technology standardization has helped to generate foundational innovation platforms upon which emerging technology vendors have developed their products and services. From 1G onward, a similar standard release process has been followed providing standard blueprints for stakeholders to contribute and develop products and network solutions. The stakeholder community for the development has been well defined and stable consisting of a limited number of technology vendors, mobile network operators, system integrators, as well as academia and regulators.With 5G, the technology ecosystem has been expanded particularly toward enterprises and industries introducing an unprecedented number of use cases and related novel stakeholder groups. Moreover, it should be acknowledged that 5G standardization deviates from previous gener-ations having a coordinated single worldwide major approach to the IMT-2020 requirements. 3G (IMT-2000) was defined by three alter-native paths (3GPP UMTS, 3GPP2 CDMA2000 and IEEE mobile WIMAX) and 4G (IMT-Advanced) with 3GPP LTE and IEEE mobile WIMAX alternatives that initially did not have an obvious single winner. Furthermore, 5G service-based architecture with open interfaces, the convergence of communication, information technology and data (ICDT), and user developer centricity will challenge the establish 3GPP grounded IMT process. Recent geopolitical and societal changes—espe-cially related to discussions on data colonialization, user rights, and the use of artificial intelligence, and the digitalization of society and critical infrastructures—have given rise to discussions on the role of nations in standardization. The ongoing technology battle has specif-ically concerned the leadership in 5G regarding semiconductors, and concerns over sovereignty regarding AI and digital technologies have become an issue. As a recent example, the US “Clean network initiative” in 2020 addressed the long-term threat to data privacy, security, human rights, and principled collaboration to free the world from authoritarian malign actors. These developments raise the question of the possible fragmentation of the 6G standardization.Role of patents and licensingFor a half-century, all major mobile communications technology providers have relied on patent licensing as their main value capture mechanism. The European telecommunications standards institute (ETSI) has orchestrated the development and governance of standards, controlling the technology contributors to make licenses available on a fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (FRAND) basis for a wide variety of implementers globally. The unique combination of technology co-development and widespread global adoption have been enabled by a nonexclusive licensing model. In addition to standard essential patent (SEP) royalties which have created a continuous incentive for standard contributions, technology vendors have leveraged complementarities via adjacent intellectual property. The collaborative approach has empowered a downstream innovation and a mobile technology and application ecosystem. The standards-compliant ecosystem comprises dedicated technology/chipset firms, infrastructure equipment providers, mobile network operators, device manufacturers, operating system software providers, application devel-opers, and content providers. Many specialized technology firms and vertically integrated companies in the mobile communications industry increasingly engage with two or more roles. Contrary to the single company-owned web-scale winner-takes-all digital platforms, harmo-nized common standards in mobile communications have helped define platforms with many stacked software layers.Regulatory developmentsThe mobile communications sector is tightly regulated. Regulation takes place at national, regional, and international levels via different methods and focus areas. One fundamental area is spectrum regulation, because the radio spectrum is the most critical natural resource needed for all wireless communications. Mobile communication networks need spectrum to operate on and so do all other wireless communication systems such as satellites and terrestrial broadcasting, among others. However, if they use the same spectrum resources, there can be harmful interference that leads to significant service degradations. As a result, different wireless systems have traditionally sought their own exclusive use of the radio spectrum, which has been the foundation for mobile communications.At the global level, the ITU-R sets requirements for systems to become part of the IMT family, that currently comprises 3G, 4G and 5G systems. At the regional level, coordination takes place between countries in specific regional organizations. In Europe, countries belonging to the European Union follow the European electronic communications code (EECC) directive, which defines the rules for electronic communication networks and services, and the spectrum used for mobile communi-cations is harmonized. Many regulatory topics are a national matter including the actual spectrum awards determining who can deploy mobile communications networks and how. National level regulations consider international and regional approaches and define regulations that are considered appropriate in the country in question.Spectrum regulationSpectrum regulation in particular plays a fundamental role in defining how, where, and when the developed technology is used and for what purpose (Matinmikko et al., 2014). Spectrum decisions made at the international, regional, and national levels significantly impact the resulting markets and the mobile communication sector is no excep-tion. For mobile communications, every new technology generation has secured access to new spectrum, which has been internationally harmo-nized, leading to economies of scale by using the same equipment in larger markets.Market regulations aim to achieve competitive markets where more than one MNO serves the end user customers in a country. Markets are directly impacted by spectrum regulatory decisions, especially via the rules in awarding of licenses. These national spectrum awarding deci-sions, which typically use spectrum auctions for mobile communications, significantly influence how many MNOs can operate in a country and how competitive the market is. Additionally, access regulation with rights and obligations concerning interconnection has a major influence on the markets.Regulatory developments at the ITU-R regarding IMT-2000, IMT-Advanced and IMT-2020 systems have defined the development paths for 3G, 4G and 5G systems. The phases of regulatory development proceed from identifying technology trends and traffic characteristics to defining a joint vision, followed by detailed requirements definition, against which technology proposals are then evaluated. Finally, tech-nology proposals that fulfill the requirements defined by the ITU-R become members of the IMT family and gain access to spectrum bands that are allocated to the mobile service and identified for IMT systems. The spectrum identification process goes in parallel with the IMT system process ranging from identifying spectrum needs based on market studies to studying candidate bands and their feasibility toward spectrum allocation decisions that are made at the World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRCs) of the ITU-R.Regarding 6G, the process for IMT toward 2030 and beyond, which corresponds to 6G, is underway at the ITU-R. The technology trends have been identified and the report on future technology trends was published in 2022 (ITU-R, 2022). Work on the framework recom-mendation is ongoing and is expected to be completed in June 2023, presenting new usage scenarios for 6G. After WRC-23, which could develop an agenda item for the 6G spectrum for the following WRC in 2027 (WRC-27), the actual requirements definition phase will start in 2024. The requirements and needed evaluation criteria and processes will be finalized by the end of 2026. Technology proposals on 6G are expected in 2027–2028 with decisions taking place in 2029.Regarding 6G, standardization phase 1 will likely start from 2025, leading to the first 6G specification in 3GPP Release 21 by 2028 and followed by commercial deployments around 2030. Meanwhile 5G will be enhanced by 5G-Advanced, which will be key focus for 3GPP in Release 18 and19 onward and will power commercial public and private networks starting in 2025. 5G-Advanced will provide new 5G features and boost 5G capabilities in four dimensions: experience, extension, expansion, and operational excellence.Evolution of the business of mobile communicationsThe mobile communications industry has for long been referred to as an ecosystem. In the current 4G-dominated world that is transitioning toward 5G dominance, the ecosystem comprises hardware providers, software providers, mobile equipment and infras-tructure providers, content and application providers, network operators, content providers, OTT (over-the-top) Internet players, service providers such as MNOs (mobile network operators) and MVNOs (mobile virtual network operators), network infrastructure constructors, facility owners, regulatory bodies, and end users. However, the way the ecosystem has been seen has changed over the history of mobile communication generations.From value chain to business ecosystemThus, the value chain in the mobile communication sector has evolved over the technology generations. The 2G era included state-owned MNOs and the market was opened to competition from new private MNOs. The value chain in 2G typically consisted of network infras-tructure vendors, MNOs, device vendors, end users, and the regulator. 3G introduced mobile broadband, which made new services and applications available over the networks. Otherwise, the value chain remained as it was in 2G, but competition increased in several markets with new market entry, leading to market consolida-tion later. 4G brought mobile broadband on a large scale and MNO networks became bit pipes for OTT services. In the 4G era, the role of OTT services increased and the number of MNOs per country decreased as a result of acquisitions by the MNOs.The 5G era has introduced local networks deployed by different stakeholders, which has opened the market for new local entry. This development is still ongoing and varies a great deal between countries. Local 5G networks have created local vertical specific ecosystems around their deployment areas where the stakeholders and their roles vary. Examples of this include the port and factory ecosystems.From engineering platform to service modularity and ecosystemThe definition of 5G opened the opportunity to change from connec-tivity-centric business models toward various connectivity with bundled content (data-based), context (location-based or service-specific), and commerce (platform) business models and offering the whole network as a service (NaaS). In parallel to this development, a disruption in the deployment models of mobile communication networks took place in the 5G era disrupting the ecosystem by enabling new entrants, such as utilities, ports, and manufacturing plants, to run their own local private 5G networks . Additionally, other technologies such as cloud computing, AI, and Web3 have started to converge with or complement 5G introducing cloud computing the fifth C into the 4C business model characterization framework.In the 5C framework, the connection layer includes physical and virtualized communication network infrastructures for the ecosystemic value propo-sition of exchanging information. The newly introduced cloud computing infrastructure is an essential enabler for a variety of data and intelligence-based services. The third content layer aims to collect, select, compile, distribute, and present data in the ecosystem in a value-adding, conve-nient, and user-friendly way. In the context layer, the aim is to provide a structure, increase transparency, and reduce complexity by providing a platform for stakeholders’ communication and transaction. Finally, the commerce layer focuses on negotiation, initiation, payment, and service and product deliveries in the ecosystem, enabling low transaction costs and providing a cost-effective marketplace for matching and bridging supply and demand.
A brief history of the evolution of mobile standards
Every new network generation deserves around 10 years of research. The first generation of digital cellular network (2G) was commercially launched in 1991, followed by 3G in 2001, 4G in 2009, and 5G in 2019. Thus, now is the time to shape 6G, with a target launch in 2028–2030. Research on 6G effectively started around the globe in 2020, standardization in 2025.
1G where it all began. The first generation of mobile networks – or 1G as they were retroactively dubbed when the next generation was introduced – was launched by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) in Tokyo in 1979. By 1984, NTT had rolled out 1G to cover the whole of Japan. In 1983, the US approved the first 1G operations and the Motorola’s DynaTAC became one of the first ‘mobile’ phones to see widespread use stateside. Other countries such as Canada and the UK rolled out their own 1G networks a few years later. However, 1G technology suffered from a number of drawbacks. Coverage was poor and sound quality was low. There was no roaming support between various operators and, as different systems operated on different frequency ranges, there was no compatibility between systems. Worse of all, calls weren’t encrypted, so anyone with a radio scanner could drop in on a call. Despite these shortcomings and a hefty $3,995 price tag ($9,660 in today’s money), the DynaTAC still managed to rack up an astonishing 20 million global subscribers by 1990. There was no turning back; the success of 1G paved the way for the second generation, appropriately called 2G.
2G cultural revolution. The second generation of mobile networks, or 2G, was launched under the GSM standard in Finland in 1991. For the first time, calls could be encrypted and digital voice calls were significantly clearer with less static and background crackling. But 2G was about much more than telecommunications; it helped lay the groundwork for nothing short of a cultural revolution. For the first time, people could send text messages (SMS), picture messages, and multimedia messages (MMS) on their phones. The analog past of 1G gave way to the digital future presented by 2G. This led to mass-adoption by consumers and businesses alike on a scale never before seen. Although 2G’s transfer speeds were initially only around 9.6 kbit/s, operators rushed to invest in new infrastructure such as mobile cell towers. By the end of the era, speeds of 40 kbit/s were achievable and EDGE connections offered speeds of up to 500 kbit/s. Despite relatively sluggish speeds, 2G revolutionized the business landscape and changed the world forever.
3G packet-switching revolution. 3G was launched by NTT DoCoMo in 2001 and aimed to standardize the network protocol used by vendors. This meant that users could access data from any location in the world as the ‘data packets’ that drive web connectivity were standardized. This made international roaming services a real possibility for the first time. 3G’s increased data transfer capabilities (4 times faster than 2G) also led to the rise of new services such as video conferencing, video streaming and voice over IP (such as Skype). In 2002, the Blackberry was launched, and many of its powerful features were made possible by 3G connectivity. The twilight era of 3G saw the launch of the iPhone in 2007, meaning that its network capability was about to be stretched like never before. The real game-changer came with the advent of 3G, which took mobile networks and data use to a new level. Speeds jumped to 2 Mbps, and the 3G network expanded with towers capable of servicing 60 to 100 people at a time with no degradation in service. These first three levels of connectivity required new hardware every time an advance was made. By the time 3G came along, the smartphone was hitting its stride. Connectivity meant that applications designed to run on the internet were being developed right and left, and phones became mini-computers that could be carried anywhere.
4G streaming era. 4G was first deployed in Stockholm, Sweden and Oslo, Norway in 2009 as the Long Term Evolution (LTE) 4G standard. It was subsequently introduced throughout the world and made high-quality video streaming a reality for millions of consumers. 4G offers fast mobile web access (up to 1 gigabit per second for stationary users) which facilitates gaming services, HD videos and HQ video conferencing. The catch was that while transitioning from 2G to 3G was as simple as switching SIM cards, mobile devices needed to be specifically designed to support 4G. This helped device manufacturers scale their profits dramatically by introducing new 4G-ready handsets and was one factor behind Apple’s rise to become the world’s first trillion dollar company. While 4G is the current standard around the globe, some regions are plagued by network patchiness and have low 4G LTE penetration. According to Ogury, a mobile data platform, UK residents can only access 4G networks 53 percent of the time, for example.The 4G generation prompted production of the first phones with backwards compatibility. Consumers wanted the latest tech, but 4G was taking time to roll out. Towers could service 300 to 400 people as engineers figured out how to maximize data packaging for transmission along available bandwidth. 4G allowed speeds of 3 to 5 Mbps, bringing cellphones into line with the highest speeds then available using DSL on home computers.
5G Internet of Things era. During an interview with Tech Republic, Kevin Ashton described how he coined the term the Internet of Things (IoT) – during a PowerPoint presentation he gave in the 1990s to convince Procter & Gamble to start using RFID tag technology. The phrase caught on and IoT was soon touted as the next big digital revolution that would see billions of connected devices seamlessly share data across the globe. According to Ashton, a mobile phone isn’t a phone, it’s the IoT in your pocket; a number of network-connected sensors that help you accomplish everything from navigation to photography to communication and more. The IoT will see data move out of server centers and into what are known as ‘edge devices’ such as Wi-Fi-enabled appliances like fridges, washing machines, and cars. By the early 2000s, developers knew that 3G and even 4G networks wouldn’t be able to support such a network. As 4G’s latency of between 40ms and 60ms is too slow for real-time responses, a number of researchers started developing the next generation of mobile networks. In 2008, NASA helped launch the Machine-to-Machine Intelligence (M2Mi) Corp to develop IoT and M2M technology, as well as the 5G technology needed to support it. In the same year, South Korea developed a 5G R&D program, while New York University founded the 5G-focused NYU WIRELESS in 2012. The superior connectivity offered by 5G promised to transform everything from banking to healthcare. 5G offers the possibility of innovations such as remote surgeries, telemedicine and even remote vital sign monitoring that could save lives. Three South Korean carriers – KT, LG Uplus and SK Telecom – rolled out live commercial 5G services last December and promise a simultaneous March 2019 launch of 5G across the country.5G delivered another massive, exponential spike in speed and connectivity. It provides higher download speeds that blow previous generations out of the water (up to 20,480 Mbps), higher capacity (the capability to support hundreds of users at a time, and higher data rates to support video playback or conferencing. All this and thousands of devices in the Internet of Things (IoT) as well.
6G IMT-2030. Building on the comprehensive upgrade of network equipment expected for 5G, IMT-2030 will be a hybrid network consisting of disparate networks including fixed, mobile cellular, high-altitude platforms, satellites and others yet to be defined. IMT-2030 is designed to provide a revolutionary new user experience with connection speeds in the Terabits/s range per user.Unlike 2G in 1991 or 4G in 2009, IMT-2030 will not replace existing infrastructure but serve as an upgrade rather than a new generation of mobile technology.
There are several technological fields that rollout progressive changes globally. Two of them represent the strategic commitment of individual large states. These are 5G technologies and artificial intelligence. The 5G/6G technologies mark the beginning of a new era of high-speed networks, hyper-connectivity, a wide spectrum of new services. It will emphatically affect people, ventures, society, and the economy, changing how we live and work.
- 3G’s story was about data
- 4G’s was about speed
- 5G’s is about latency
- 6G's will be networks of networks
Every new network generation deserves around 10 years of research. The first generation of digital cellular network (2G) was commercially launched in 1991, followed by 3G in 2001, 4G in 2009, and 5G in 2019. Thus, now is the time to shape 6G, with a target launch in 2028–2030. Research on 6G effectively started around the globe in 2020, standardization in 2025.
1G where it all began. The first generation of mobile networks – or 1G as they were retroactively dubbed when the next generation was introduced – was launched by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) in Tokyo in 1979. By 1984, NTT had rolled out 1G to cover the whole of Japan. In 1983, the US approved the first 1G operations and the Motorola’s DynaTAC became one of the first ‘mobile’ phones to see widespread use stateside. Other countries such as Canada and the UK rolled out their own 1G networks a few years later. However, 1G technology suffered from a number of drawbacks. Coverage was poor and sound quality was low. There was no roaming support between various operators and, as different systems operated on different frequency ranges, there was no compatibility between systems. Worse of all, calls weren’t encrypted, so anyone with a radio scanner could drop in on a call. Despite these shortcomings and a hefty $3,995 price tag ($9,660 in today’s money), the DynaTAC still managed to rack up an astonishing 20 million global subscribers by 1990. There was no turning back; the success of 1G paved the way for the second generation, appropriately called 2G.
2G cultural revolution. The second generation of mobile networks, or 2G, was launched under the GSM standard in Finland in 1991. For the first time, calls could be encrypted and digital voice calls were significantly clearer with less static and background crackling. But 2G was about much more than telecommunications; it helped lay the groundwork for nothing short of a cultural revolution. For the first time, people could send text messages (SMS), picture messages, and multimedia messages (MMS) on their phones. The analog past of 1G gave way to the digital future presented by 2G. This led to mass-adoption by consumers and businesses alike on a scale never before seen. Although 2G’s transfer speeds were initially only around 9.6 kbit/s, operators rushed to invest in new infrastructure such as mobile cell towers. By the end of the era, speeds of 40 kbit/s were achievable and EDGE connections offered speeds of up to 500 kbit/s. Despite relatively sluggish speeds, 2G revolutionized the business landscape and changed the world forever.
3G packet-switching revolution. 3G was launched by NTT DoCoMo in 2001 and aimed to standardize the network protocol used by vendors. This meant that users could access data from any location in the world as the ‘data packets’ that drive web connectivity were standardized. This made international roaming services a real possibility for the first time. 3G’s increased data transfer capabilities (4 times faster than 2G) also led to the rise of new services such as video conferencing, video streaming and voice over IP (such as Skype). In 2002, the Blackberry was launched, and many of its powerful features were made possible by 3G connectivity. The twilight era of 3G saw the launch of the iPhone in 2007, meaning that its network capability was about to be stretched like never before. The real game-changer came with the advent of 3G, which took mobile networks and data use to a new level. Speeds jumped to 2 Mbps, and the 3G network expanded with towers capable of servicing 60 to 100 people at a time with no degradation in service. These first three levels of connectivity required new hardware every time an advance was made. By the time 3G came along, the smartphone was hitting its stride. Connectivity meant that applications designed to run on the internet were being developed right and left, and phones became mini-computers that could be carried anywhere.
4G streaming era. 4G was first deployed in Stockholm, Sweden and Oslo, Norway in 2009 as the Long Term Evolution (LTE) 4G standard. It was subsequently introduced throughout the world and made high-quality video streaming a reality for millions of consumers. 4G offers fast mobile web access (up to 1 gigabit per second for stationary users) which facilitates gaming services, HD videos and HQ video conferencing. The catch was that while transitioning from 2G to 3G was as simple as switching SIM cards, mobile devices needed to be specifically designed to support 4G. This helped device manufacturers scale their profits dramatically by introducing new 4G-ready handsets and was one factor behind Apple’s rise to become the world’s first trillion dollar company. While 4G is the current standard around the globe, some regions are plagued by network patchiness and have low 4G LTE penetration. According to Ogury, a mobile data platform, UK residents can only access 4G networks 53 percent of the time, for example.The 4G generation prompted production of the first phones with backwards compatibility. Consumers wanted the latest tech, but 4G was taking time to roll out. Towers could service 300 to 400 people as engineers figured out how to maximize data packaging for transmission along available bandwidth. 4G allowed speeds of 3 to 5 Mbps, bringing cellphones into line with the highest speeds then available using DSL on home computers.
5G Internet of Things era. During an interview with Tech Republic, Kevin Ashton described how he coined the term the Internet of Things (IoT) – during a PowerPoint presentation he gave in the 1990s to convince Procter & Gamble to start using RFID tag technology. The phrase caught on and IoT was soon touted as the next big digital revolution that would see billions of connected devices seamlessly share data across the globe. According to Ashton, a mobile phone isn’t a phone, it’s the IoT in your pocket; a number of network-connected sensors that help you accomplish everything from navigation to photography to communication and more. The IoT will see data move out of server centers and into what are known as ‘edge devices’ such as Wi-Fi-enabled appliances like fridges, washing machines, and cars. By the early 2000s, developers knew that 3G and even 4G networks wouldn’t be able to support such a network. As 4G’s latency of between 40ms and 60ms is too slow for real-time responses, a number of researchers started developing the next generation of mobile networks. In 2008, NASA helped launch the Machine-to-Machine Intelligence (M2Mi) Corp to develop IoT and M2M technology, as well as the 5G technology needed to support it. In the same year, South Korea developed a 5G R&D program, while New York University founded the 5G-focused NYU WIRELESS in 2012. The superior connectivity offered by 5G promised to transform everything from banking to healthcare. 5G offers the possibility of innovations such as remote surgeries, telemedicine and even remote vital sign monitoring that could save lives. Three South Korean carriers – KT, LG Uplus and SK Telecom – rolled out live commercial 5G services last December and promise a simultaneous March 2019 launch of 5G across the country.5G delivered another massive, exponential spike in speed and connectivity. It provides higher download speeds that blow previous generations out of the water (up to 20,480 Mbps), higher capacity (the capability to support hundreds of users at a time, and higher data rates to support video playback or conferencing. All this and thousands of devices in the Internet of Things (IoT) as well.
6G IMT-2030. Building on the comprehensive upgrade of network equipment expected for 5G, IMT-2030 will be a hybrid network consisting of disparate networks including fixed, mobile cellular, high-altitude platforms, satellites and others yet to be defined. IMT-2030 is designed to provide a revolutionary new user experience with connection speeds in the Terabits/s range per user.Unlike 2G in 1991 or 4G in 2009, IMT-2030 will not replace existing infrastructure but serve as an upgrade rather than a new generation of mobile technology.
There are several technological fields that rollout progressive changes globally. Two of them represent the strategic commitment of individual large states. These are 5G technologies and artificial intelligence. The 5G/6G technologies mark the beginning of a new era of high-speed networks, hyper-connectivity, a wide spectrum of new services. It will emphatically affect people, ventures, society, and the economy, changing how we live and work.
Release15The work on new radio (NR) and the 5G system (5GS) jointly addressed the urgent subset of needs for early commercial deployments.Release16Met all identified 5G use cases, to allow a full 3GPP IMT 2020 submission to ITU RRelease 17Enhances the earlier 5G work, meeting more 'vertical' industry needs, specifying NR operation in unlicensed bands, NR MIMO, V2 everything.Release 18:The current focus of the groups, scheduled for completion during 2024. Rel 18 will see a balanced evolution in terms of:
5G Advanced is a mid generational marker (covers Rel 18, 19, 20)
Release 19From 2024 6G mobile systems come later. 6G time to market expected to be 2030.
- mobile broadband evolution versus further vertical domain expansion
- immediate versus longer term market needs
- device evolution versus network evolution.
5G Advanced is a mid generational marker (covers Rel 18, 19, 20)
Release 19From 2024 6G mobile systems come later. 6G time to market expected to be 2030.
