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Post date: Oct 08, 2009 11:24:26 AM
History matching of the Google Flu trends estimate vs. Norwegian data by European Influenza Surveillance Network
Influenza estimate
The level of "flu" this graph measures is calculated based on very fine-tuned weights on the search queries done in this periods. E.g., a query for "runny nose" or "fever" might pull up this number. These weights are then tuned by matching historical search query data against data collected by CDC (central disease agency) or by European Influenza Surveillance Network(EISN) as in Norway's case. So if an increased number of searches on flu related terms brings up this number, I am pretty sure that people, not only sick but also worried will search to be on the safe side. This summer we saw an enormous media coverage of the Swine Flu H1N1/09 virus and it is very likely that this will affect the search mass. I am at least looking forward to see how their search trends hold up to the new data they get from EISN.
Finally google.org's flu trends have arrived in Norway as well. If you don't know google's flu trends be sure to check up their video at http://www.google.org/flutrends/about/how.html .Right now we are on a moderate level, but what suprises me is the very high peak this summer. As you can see, the historical data does not show anything like it before. Such a clearly defined peak is almost nowhere to be found in other countries. So what does this mean? Where we really that sick this summer? Or perhaps only scared?
Google Flu Trends estimate Norway data
Ohh, and one more thing, I'm going to the states tomorrow and it is good to see that in New Jersey, where I am going, the flu level is the same as in Norway, i.e., Moderate. Almost glad i'm not going to Texas, where the status is Intense.
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