RESEARCH
Please Note: Some links to already published material are to slightly older versions from the NBER working paper series. Please contact me if you do not have access to this series and would like a copy for personal use, or you would like a copy of the final version of something you see below.
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Painting: The Guangzhou Factories, circa 1785, William Daniell, Hong Kong Museum of History
WHAT'S NEW?
Tariffs and US Manufacturing Productivity, 1870 - 1900 (with Alex Klein) coming soon
de Lesseps' Legacy: The Suez Canal and Economic Growth (with David Jacks) coming soon
US Trade Performance, 1866-1914: A View from New Granular Data (with Chenzi Xu) coming soon
International Banks: Re-Agents of the First Globalization? (with Chenzi Xu and Wilfried Kisling) coming soon
Original Sin and The Great Depression (Journal of International Economics - with Michael Bordo) (open access!)
The French (Trade) Revolution of 1860: Intra-Industry Trade and Smooth Adjustment (Journal of Economic History - with Stephane Becuwe and Bertrand Blancheton)
A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics (Economics and Biology with Peter Z. Lin)
Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19 (with Peter Z. Lin)
Austerity and the Rise of the Nazis (Journal of Economic History with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Martin McKee, and David Stuckler) Press coverage from Rolling Stone, Newsweek, Vox, and Spiegel Online (the most downloaded and viewed article at the Journal of Economic History website since publication)
THE GREAT DEPRESSION
Original Sin and The Great Depression (with Michael Bordo)
Trade, Exchange Rate Regimes and Output Co-Movement: Evidence from the Great Depression with Gabriel Mathy (2011) Journal of Monetary Economics.58 (4) pp. 362-372.
International Aspects of the Great Depression and the Crisis of 2007: Similarities, Differences, and Lessons with Richard S. Grossman (2010) Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Vol. 26 (3) pp. 318-388.
Surplus Reversals in Large Nations: The Cases of France and Great Britain in the Interwar Period for a Vox EU ebook on Rebalancing the Global economy: A Primer for Policymaking
Banking crises and mortality during the Great Depression: evidence from US urban populations, 1929-1937 with David Stuckler, Price V. Fishback, Sanjay Basu and Martin McKee. Journal of Epidemiological and Community Health 2011.
PUBLIC HEALTH & THE ECONOMY
A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics (with Peter Z. Lin)
Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19 (with Peter Z. Lin)
Austerity and the Rise of the Nazis (forthcoming Journal of Economic History with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Martin McKee, and David Stuckler) Press coverage: Newsweek and Vox.
Does investment in the health sector promote or inhibit economic growth? (with Aaron Reeves, Sanjay Basu, Martin McKee, and David Stuckler)
Banking crises and mortality during the Great Depression: evidence from US urban populations, 1929-1937 with David Stuckler, Price V. Fishback, Sanjay Basu and Martin McKee. Journal of Epidemiological and Community Health 2011.
Can a bank crisis break your heart? with David Stuckler, and Lawrence King Globalization and Health. We show that banking crises are related to increases in death rates from heart disease.
Press coverage from the Financial Times, BBC, Daily Telegraph, The Guardian, FT Alphaville, Maclean's, AFP and other blogs. David Stuckler also appeared on CNBC Europe Tonight
Critical review of the literature and this paper by Tapia Granados
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Market potential and economic development with non-homotheticity (2019) (with Dan Liu) Journal of Development Economics
Upstart Industrialization and Exports, Japan 1880-1910 (2018) (with John P. Tang) Journal of Economic History
Stages of Diversification: France, 1836-1938 (2018) (with Stephane Becuwe and Bertrand Blancheton) European Review of Economic History
Growth from Globalization? A View from the Very Long-Run (working version of a chapter for the Handbook of Economic Growth vol. 2.)
Market Potential and Economic Performance in the Early 20th Century (2015) (with Dan Liu) Journal of International Economics
The Role of Trade Costs in the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009 For a Vox EU ebook on the Great Trade Collapse (November 2009)
Trade Booms, Trade Busts and Trade Costs (2011) (with David Jacks and Dennis Novy) Journal of International Economics.
An extension of this paper to the Trade Bust of 2008-09 titled What's Driving the Trade Collapse? can be found at Vox EU
The WTO has a primer on trade policy analysis which shows how this trade-cost measure can be useful.
Trade Costs, 1870-2000 (2008) (with David Jacks and Dennis Novy) American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings
There is a short summary on Vox EU and our work was also mentioned in the Financial Times.
Trade Costs in the First Wave of Globalization (2010), (with David Jacks and Dennis Novy) Explorations in Economic History
Exchange Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era, 1870-1913 (2002) with J. Ernesto López Córdova. American Economic Review
The American Wool Industry in 1909: How Protective Was the Protection? (in progress)
FINANCIAL CRISES IN HISTORY
Fiscal and Financial Crises (with Michael Bordo) (2017) Handbook of Economic Growth
Growing Up to Stability? Financial Globalization, Financial Development and Financial Crises (with Michael Bordo) (2017)
Capital Flows, Credit Booms, and Financial Crises in the Classical Gold Standard Era (2013) Revista de la Economía y de la Empresa.
Does Inequality Lead to a Financial Crisis? (with Michael Bordo) (2012) Journal of International Money and Finance
Press and blog coverage from the The Economist, The Atlantic, Delong, Economists View, Marginal Revolution. A highly relevant post by Rajan, and one by Kermal Dervis.
Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View (with Michael D. Bordo and David Stuckler) Journal of International Money and Finance
Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913 1913 (2010) (with Michael Bordo and Alberto Cavallo) (2010) Journal of Development Economics.
Can a bank crisis break your heart? (2008) with David Stuckler, and Lawrence King Globalization and Health.
Press coverage from the Financial Times, BBC, Daily Telegraph, The Guardian, FT Alphaville, Maclean's, AFP and other blogs. David Stuckler also appeared on CNBC Europe Tonight
Critical review of the literature and this paper by Tapia Granados
Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt (Michael D. Bordo) (2007) in Sebastian Edwards, Gerardo Esquivel, and Graciela Márquez eds. The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises pp. 139-194. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Financial Crises and Foreign Currency Debt: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997 (Michael Bordo) (2006) Journal of Banking and Finance.
EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
The Limits of Bimetallism (2015) in Federal Reserve Policy Seen Through the Lens of Economic History: Essays to Commemorate the Federal Reserve System’s Centennial. pp.194-216. editor Owen Humpage. Cambridge University Press.
Why do Countries Peg the Way they Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice with Nienke Oomes (2009) Journal of International Money and Finance 28 (3) pp. 522-547.
A New World Order: Explaining the International Diffusion of the Gold Standard, 1870-1913 (2005) Journal of International Economics vol. 66 pp. 385-406.
Systemic Changes in the International Monetary System and the Need for Coordination, Cooperation and Enforcement A short paper prepared for the book 'A Twenty-First Century International Monetary System’ published by Chatham House and the UK's ESRC World Economy and Finance Programme.
Competing International Currencies? The Dollar and the Euro in Long Run Perspective. A presentation given in Braga, Portugal (University of Minho) at a conference marking 10 years of the Euro
The Evolution of the International Monetary System: A Long-Run Perspective on Exchange Rate Regime Choice (forthcoming- probably never) Advancing East Asian Economic Integration editor. Timo Henckel
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS/DEBT
Original Sin and The Great Depression (Journal of International Economics - with Michael Bordo) (open access!)
The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement (2019) (with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Martin McKee, and David Stuckler) European Review of Economic History
Surplus Reversals in Large Nations: The Cases of France and Great Britain in the Interwar Period for a Vox EU ebook on Rebalancing the Global economy: A Primer for Policymaking
Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913 (2010) (with Michael Bordo and Alberto Cavallo) Journal of Development Economics.
Foreign Capital, Financial Crises and Incomes in the First Era of Globalization (2011) (with Michael Bordo) European Review of Economic History
Economic Growth and Foreign Currency Debt A Long-Run Comparative Perspective (2010) (with Michael D. Bordo and David Stuckler) Journal of International Money and Finance
Identifying the Effects of an Exchange Rate Depreciation on Country Risk: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (2009) (with Michael D. Bordo and Marc Weidenmier) Journal of International Money and Finance
International Risk Sharing Across the Twentieth Century (with David Jacks)
Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective with Alan M. Taylor (2008) conference volume from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference on Global Imbalances held in Chatham, Mass. June 2006. (also NBER working paper 12580, CEPR discussion paper 5917)
How ‘Original Sin’ Was Overcome: The Evolution of External Debt Denominated in Domestic Currencies in the United States and the British Dominions 1800-2000” (2005) with Michael Bordo and Angela Redish in Other People’s Money: Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging Market Economies. Barry Eichengreen and Ricardo Hausmann eds. pp. 122-153. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
POLITICAL ECONOMY
Austerity and the Rise of the Nazis (with Gregori Galofré-Vilà, Martin McKee, and David Stuckler)
The Impact of International Trade on Democracy: A Long Run Perspective, 1870-2000 (2008) (with J. Ernesto López Córdova) World Politics (Lead article).
A brief blog post summarizing our arguments: Trade Matters for Democracy: A Reminder for G-20 Leaders A post for VOX EU.
On the Looting of Nations (2011) (with Erwin Bulte, Mare Sarr, and Tim Swanson) Public Choice.
A short summary appeared on Vox EU 27 September, 2008
Riding the Wave of Trade: The Rise of Labor Regulation in the Golden Age of Globalization (2010) (with Michael Huberman) Journal of Economic History (Winner of the Arthur H. Cole prize for the best article in the previous year in the Journal of Economic History.)
GROUP DECISION MAKING
Voting Rules and the Success of Connected Lending in Nineteenth Century New England Banks (2005) Explorations in Economic History. vol. 42(4) pp. 509-528.
BOOK REVIEWS ETC.
Review of Jeff Williamson "Trade and Poverty: When the Third World Fell Behind"
Review of Power and Plenty by Ronald Findlay and Kevin H. O'Rourke (forthcoming) Journal of Economic History
Review of Jeffry Frieden Global Capitalism: Its Fall and Rise in the Twentieth Century (2007) Journal of International Economics vol. 71 (2) pp. 523-525.
Review of Feldstein, Martin (ed.) Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies. (2005) Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management vol 13 (1) pp. 35-36
“Prices and Inflation” (2005) History of World Trade since 1450. John J. McCusker editor. Macmillan Reference.
“The Gold Standard” (2003) Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History. Joel Mokyr ed. OUP.
Review of James, Harold, ed. in collaboration with Elisabeth Müller-Luckner, The Interwar Depression in an International Context and Parker, Randall E. Reflections on the Great Depression. International History Review September 2003.
Review for eh.net of Battles for the Standard: Bimetallism and the Spread of the Gold Standard in the Nineteenth Century, by Ted Wilson.