TITLE:
Forecasting Without Theory: The Case of Pakistan's Exports of Rice and Cotton
JOURNAL:
Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics
DATE OF PUBLICATION:
1983
ABSTRACT:
The Paper analyses the behaviour of Pakistan’s commodity exports over time and makes medium term projections about the quantity and value of basmati, other rice and raw cotton. Our results, based upon careful statistical analysis and detailed study of the individual commodities reveal an impressive trend in the growth of these exports. It is projected that during the next five years the quantities exported of basmati, ‘other’ rice and raw cotton will grow at an annual rate of 11 percent, 9 percent and 4 percent respectively. Our forecasts are relatively more optimistic than some alternative projections made so far.
REFERENCE:
Zaman, Asad and Abdul-Hafeez Sheikh, “Forecasting Without Theory: The Case of Pakistan's Exports of Rice and Cotton.” Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 1, No.2, pp. 65-83, 1983.