Climate Change

Introduction

Climate change is with us. A decade ago, it was conjecture. Now the future is unfolding before our eyes. The direct impacts of climate change can be observed with rising temperatures, melting of glaciers, variation in precipitation levels, sea-level rise, fatal heat waves, increased unexpected droughts, cyclone and sudden snowstorms. These, in turn, have an impact on natural ecological systems, agriculture, human health, soil erosion, water resource use, power generation, tourism, industry, and infrastructure.

Climate change is human induced

A major factor contributor to the build up of greenhouse gases is fuel consumption. Of this, power stations, industrial processes and transportation comprise over half the emissions. Agriculture, land use, and biomass burning and residential and commercial sources are much smaller contributors, accounting collectively to about a third of all such emissions. It is now officially accepted that human activities are major reason for global warming as opposes to some earlier arguments that the warming was a part of natural process and due to non-human causes like solar activity, volcanic emissions and so on. “Clearly we are endangering all species on earth; we are endangering the future of the human race” states Dr R K Pachauri, IPCC Chairman.[1]

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth and the oceans in the recent times and likelihood of continued increase in temperature in future. Gases like carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, HFCs and PFCs as well as water vapor – called greenhouse gases – collect in the atmosphere like a blanket and trapping the Sun’s heat that is radiated off the Earth’s surface.

Over the past 50 years, the average global temperature is said to have increased fastest rate recorded in the history. Temperature are likely to rise by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius (a wider range than in the 2001 report) by the year 2100, with the probable 2 to 4.5 degree range if carbon dioxide doubles by pre-industrial levels, the IPCC 4th Assessment report states. Eleven of the last 12 years are among the 12 warmest years.[2] A rise in global temperature is expected to cause changes like sea level rise, melting of glaciers, coral bleaching, more frequent incidents of extreme weather events like floods, heat waves, droughts, hurricanes and so on, though it does not mean that all extreme events are result of global warming.

Climate change – Some Recent Projections

Melting of Glaciers

According to the draft Forth Assessment Report of International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), if the current warming rates are maintained, Himalayan glaciers could shrink from the present 500,000 sq km to 100,000 sq km by 2030.[3] Till 2030, there will be a sharp rise in water levels of glacier-fed rivers.

A 0.50 C rise in temperature will reduce wheat yield by 450 kg/hectare in India. [6] Climate Change will make monsoons unpredictable. As a result, rain-fed wheat cultivation in South Asia will suffer in a big way. Total cereal production will go down. Crop yield per hectare will hit badly, causing food insecurity and loss of livelihood.[7]

Sea Level Rise

Sea-level gain by the end of the century may range from 18 to 59 cm, an additional 10-20 cm are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice-sheets continues. Global average sea levels have arisen at 3.1 mm per year over 1993-2003.[8] We have already lost 31 sq km of the Sagar Islands in the Sundarbans, a world heritage site, as well as four small islands, rendering 6,000 families homeless. If the trend is not checked, another 15% of the area’s hospitable land will be under sea by 2020, displacing 30,000 families. .[9]

Actually by 2020, the disaster area will not be limited to far-flung, low-lying areas like Sundarbans, it will be much closer to us say, in Mumbai, or Panaji, Kochi, Chennai, Vizag, Puri , Kolkata – in fact, all along India’s 7,600-km coastline where 20% of the country’s population lives.[10]

A one-meter sea level rise would lead to submergence of 576,400 hectare (ha) of land of India. This would displace more than 7.1 million people says an Asian Development Bank study.[11]

Impact on Biodiversity

Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangroves forest, and Himalayan glaciers are eleven of the world’s greatest natural wonders that face destruction if the climate continues to warm at the current rate. Other wonders of nature at risk are the Amazoniam rain forests, Australia’s Great Barrier Reed, says World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) in its latest report titled ‘Saving the World’s Natural Wonders from Climate Change’.[13]

“Climate change is clearly a threat to corals and the tiny plants that live in the tissues, but the issues go far beyond coral. Corals build a structure in which thousand of species live,” Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a coral-bleaching researcher said. Coral bleaching due to rising temperatures has struck many reefs around the world, hitting Indian Ocean, parts of Caribbean and Australia. Australia’s Great Barrier Reef’s will be functionally extinct by 2050, warns the 4th Assessment draft report by the IPCC.[14]

On Oceans

Climate change has weakened the Antarctic Ocean’s ability to absorb the globe’s excess carbon dioxide, a factor that could accelerate global warming, international scientists have found.[15]A study published in the journal Science revealed that since 1981, the Southern Ocean has been taking up less carbon dioxide – five to 30% less per decade – than researchers had predicted previously. The reason for slowdown is more winds over the Southern Ocean since 1958, caused by human produced greenhouse gases and ozone depletion. The winds have led to a release of stored carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This prevented further absorption of greenhouse gases in the ocean’s carbon sink: - a natural carbon reservoir, according to the study.

UNFCCC – United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change opened for signature in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit and entered into force on 21 March 1994 after ratification by 50 states. It provides the overall policy framework for addressing the climate change issue. The Convention aims at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system." It states that "such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."

Countries ratifying the treaty are called "Parties to the Convention" in diplomatic jargon and they agree to develop national programmes to slow climate change. The Convention recognizes that it is a "framework" document something is required to be amended or augmented over time so that efforts to deal with global warming and climate change can be focused and made more effective. The first addition to the treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, was adopted in 1997.

The Convention placed the heaviest burden for fighting climate change on industrialized nations, since they are the source of most past and current greenhouse gas emissions.

Industrialized nations agreed under the Convention to support climate-change activities in developing countries by providing financial support above and beyond any financial assistance they already provide to these countries. A system of grants and loans has been set up through the Convention and is managed by the Global Environment Facility. Industrialized countries also agreed to share technology with less-advanced nations.

Kyoto Protocol

The text of the Kyoto Protocol was adopted unanimously in the third meeting of the Conference of Parties (CoP) in Kyoto, Japan in the year 1997 and it entered into force on 16 February 2005.

The objectives of the Kyoto Protocol were:

To achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adopt naturally to climate change;

To ensure that food production is not threatened; and

To enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Joint Implementations

This refers to the reduction in the emission level by different States jointly. This is possible only between Annexe B countries. The State utilize the emission reduction units in the other Annexe B country to reach their reduction target within the specified time. The parties involved in the activity need have to enter into an arrangement for the same. The State parties have the freedom to involve private firms in the reduction of the emission of gases (emission reduction projects) and provide them with some incentives in the form of transfer of efficient technology for having permitted the other Party to the arrangement use their emission reduction units.

Emissions Trading

Under this, each State has affixed quota of emission levels while some of them are able to use less than the fixed quota, the others find it difficult to reduce their emission levels so as to be within the limits. In such a situation a provision for trade of is worked out within the State, which does not use up the quota fixed for it sells of the unused quota to the other State that is in need of the same. With the result it is claimed that while one gets an incentive for remaining below the limits prescribed the other one, pay the price for the excess emission and help the law of averages to operate. In this regard the emission is equated with a property; it is both a transferable and tradable. This mechanism helps in the maintenance of a standard level of GHG without the world. This is tactic that has been adopted to indirectly force the States work for the reduction of their emissions, i.e., the industries and other establishment strive hard to reach the targets so that they can sell their surplus or trade with them, and on the other side again the States strive to reach the targets because they fear buying the surplus from the States.

The Clean Development Mechanism

There is a prominent similarity between the Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The Joint Implementation is between the Annexe B countries but whereas CDM is again is the joint implementation but between the developed and the developing countries. The developed and developing countries come up with the collaborative projects to reduce emissions or seize carbon emission in developing countries. The CDM also help the developing countries resulting in ‘certified emission reductions’ from CDM projects. The developed countries invest in the developing countries on such projects as the abatement procedures are less costly in developing countries. By doing so the developed countries earn credits and can then apply the same against their own GHG emissions of sell them in the open market. And on the other side helps the developed countries comply with their emission reduction commitments under the Protocol. This mechanism seeks to achieve the emission reduction by States in a cooperative manner. The main intention of having such a mechanism is to help those countries that are not included in Annexe I to achieve sustainable development and to achieve the objectives of the Framework Convention

Conclusion

In the last few decades or so climate change has become one of the most important and sensitive environmental issues facing the world. The state of environment is worsening year by year. Although a lot of effort is taken at the international level to cut down on the emission levels but inspite of these efforts, it seems difficult to say that by 2012, the world would be safe from the greenhouse effect. It’s become imperative to control the emission levels. We need develop but in a sustainable manner.

Bibliography

Books:

1. Erach Bharucha, Textbook of Environmental Studies for Undergraduate Courses, University Grants Commission, University Press (India) Private Limited, 2005

2. Phillippe Sands, Principles of International Environmental Law, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press, 2004.

3. Phillippe Sands & Paolo Galizzi, Documents in International Environmental Law, Second Edition, Cambridge University Press, 2004

4. Praramjit S Jaswal & Nishtha Jaswal, Environmental Law – Environment Protection, Sustainable Development and the Law, Pioneer Publications, 2006

Websites:

1. http://www.ipcc.ch/, last accessed on 2 April 2007

2. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/, last accessed on 2 April 2007

Newspapers:

1. Global Warming is man-made, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 3 February 2007

2. Global Warming is man-made, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 3 February 2007

3. ‘Forget Himalayan glaciers’ UN Climate Report: Millions More Could Go Hungry in Asia, Africa, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 2 April 2007, pg 48

4. Melting glaciers could lead to a flood of troubles, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 6 May 2007

5. Small Himalayan glaciers may disappear entirely, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 7 April 2007

6. 0.50⁰ C rise in temperature will reduce wheat yield by 450 kg/hectare, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 11 April 2007

7. Climate change could hit cereal production, The Hindustan Times, New Delhi Edition, 11 April 2007, Pg. 8

8. Global Warming is man-made, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 3 February 2007

9. It’s time to act, the sea is already on us, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 8 May 2007

10. It’s time to act, the sea is already on us, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 8 May 2007

11. Future is heating up, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 3 May 2007

12. Asians will be worst affected by warming, The Times of India, Delhi Edition, 8 May 2007, Pg. 13

13. Warming is a threat to Natural wonders: WWF, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 6 April 2007

14. Cash for contesting climate study, The Times of India, New Delhi Edition, 3 February 2007, pg 24

15. New climate change threat emerges from the Antarctica, The Times of India, Delhi Edition, 18 May 2007, Pg 23