I. Spain v. Portugal
Period – The late 15th century
Ruling Power – Portugal
Rising Power – Spain
Domain – Colonial Rivalry & Trade Dominance
Outcome – No War
"As early as 1571, Spanish power leaped across the Pacific to the Philippines, where it collided with the sea empire which their Iberian neighbors, the Portuguese, had meanwhile flung around Africa and across the southern seas of the Eastern Hemisphere." - William H. McNeill in The Rise of the West, 1963, 574.
"Supremacy at sea gave a vastly enlarged scope to European warlikeness after 1500. But Europe’s maritime superiority was itself the product of a deliberate combination of science and practice, beginning in the commercial cities of Italy and coming to fruition in Portugal through the efforts of Prince Henry the navigator and his successors." 1
The introduction of the compass in the thirteenth century made navigation beyond the sight of land a regular practice in the Mediterranean. Additionally, navigators' charts (portolans) gave Portuguese sea captains the confidence to sail for weeks without sight of land.2 Improvements closely followed Portugal's advancements in science in naval architecture. These innovations enabled the Portuguese to construct larger ships and adjust their sails to accommodate wind and sea conditions.3
No other European nations matched the early successes of Spain and Portugal overseas.4 Tensions over colonial rivalry and trade supremacy between Spain and Portugal date back to 1425, when Prince Henry the Navigator of Portugal sent an expedition to conquer the Canary Islands from Castile (Spain). Further attacks on the islands occurred between 1450 and 1453. On March 6, 1480, after the signing of the Treaty of Alcáçovas, the Canary Islands were assigned to Castile, while West Africa, Guinea, and the ocean islands were designated for Portugal. In 1433, after more than ten years of repeated attempts, the Portuguese, led by Gil Eanes, successfully navigated past Cape Bojador. Following this achievement, progress became rapid.5
On May 4, 1493, at the request of the Spanish rulers concerned about potential claims from Portugal, Pope Alexander VI granted the Catholic monarchs exclusive rights to all lands located to the south and west toward India that a Christian ruler did not already hold as of Christmas Day, 1492. This territory was defined as lying beyond a line drawn one hundred leagues west of the Azores and Cape Verde Islands.6
Columbus's first voyage under Spain's sponsorship occurred from August 3, 1492, to March 15, 1493. He reached the Bahamas during this journey, landing on an island he named San Salvador. He also discovered Cuba and Hispaniola (Santo Domingo).7
Between September 25, 1493, and June 11, 1496, Christopher Columbus embarked on his second voyage with 17 caravels and 1,500 men to establish Spanish dominance in the New World. During this expedition, he discovered Dominica, Puerto Rico, various islands in the Antilles, and Jamaica. He also explored the southern coast of Cuba and circumnavigated Hispaniola, where he founded the settlement of Isabella. Columbus left his brother Bartholomew in charge of this settlement, and in 1496, Bartholomew transferred its location to the southern coast, establishing Santo Domingo.8
On June 7, 1494, Portugal and Spain signed the Treaty of Tordesillas. This treaty established a demarcation line that was moved 270 leagues further west. According to the agreement, Portugal was granted exclusive rights to all lands east of this line, while Spain received exclusive rights to all lands west.9
Only a decade after Vasco da Gama's first voyage to India (1497–1499), the Portuguese fought a decisive battle in 1509 for control of the Arabian Sea near the Indian port of Diu.10
The Portuguese first arrived in Brazil in 1500 and settled the country around 1530. Coastal stations in West and East Africa, established between 1471 and 1507, formed a network of ports that linked the Portuguese empire.11
Between 1501 and 1502, Amerigo Vespucci undertook his second voyage under the service of Portugal. During this journey, he traveled south along the Brazilian coast. Vespucci believed that he had discovered a new world. This belief led the geographer Martin Waldseemüller to propose that this new land be called "America" in 1507. Initially, the name was only applied to South America, and its usage spread gradually until it became widely adopted by the end of the 16th century.12
Between March 9, 1500, and June 23, 1501, Cabral was sent with 13 Portuguese ships to establish trade in the East. After landfall in Brazil, he continued to India, reaching it in September. The fleet loaded with pepper and other spices before returning safely to Lisbon. "From this time on, Portuguese trading fleets went regularly to India, and Lisbon soon became the chief entrepot in Europe for oriental products." 13
The Portuguese quickly capitalized on their success by capturing Goa in 1510 and Malacca in 1511. With Ormuz, which they occupied permanently in 1515, these locations provided them with essential bases to dominate trade across the Indian Ocean. Portuguese ships pursued valuable spices to their furthest source in the Moluccas during 1511-1512, and a Portuguese merchant-explorer, traveling on a Malay vessel, visited Canton as early as 1513-1514.14 By 1557, a permanent Portuguese settlement was established in Macao, located on the South China coast, and trade and missionary activities began in Japan during the 1540s.15
Spain conquered and settled the Americas with a combination of harsh violence and strong religious beliefs. From 1519 to 1521, Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés destroyed the Aztec empire. Between 1531 and 1535, another conquistador, Francisco Pizarro, became the master of the Inca Empire. In the following generation, other less famous but equally determined conquistadores established Spanish settlements along the coasts of Chile and Argentina, ventured into the highlands of Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela, explored Central America, and investigated the Amazon Basin and the southern United States.16
The two Iberian nations did not long enjoy the wealth gained from their expeditions without facing significant challenges. From the start, the Spaniards struggled to protect their shipping from French and Portuguese sea raiders. Additionally, after 1568, English pirates posed a serious threat following the first open conflict between English interlopers and Spanish authorities in the Caribbean. Between 1516 and 1568, the Dutch, another prominent maritime power of the time, were subjects of the same Habsburg monarchs who ruled Spain, allowing them a favored status as intermediaries between Spanish and Northern European ports. As a result, Dutch shipping had little incentive to disrupt Iberian sea power.17
By 1571, Spain had expanded its empire across the Pacific Ocean to the Philippines, where its interests clashed with those of the Portuguese, who had already built a maritime empire in Asia by sailing around Africa.18
In 1580, Philip II of Spain inherited the Portuguese crown from his grandfather,19 leading to a shared monarchy between Spain and Portugal that lasted until 1640.20
Although a conflict emerged over the Portuguese succession, culminating in a Spanish invasion on August 25, 1580, the confrontation remained limited in scope. Spanish forces defeated the Portuguese at the Battle of Alcantara near Lisbon, but the struggle did not escalate into a full-scale war between Spain and Portugal. Instead, it was primarily a dynastic dispute over the Portuguese crown rather than a conventional interstate war. 21
Historical evidence highlights the intense competition between Portugal and Spain as they vied for trade dominance and imperial influence. By the end of the 15th century, Portugal had already established a strong maritime presence across Africa, Asia, and South America, positioning itself as a dominant transcontinental power. While Spain was the first to reach the Americas, Portugal's maritime achievements were arguably broader and more strategically dispersed. In contrast, Spain was still a relative newcomer to overseas expansion - an emerging intercontinental power beginning to assert itself in global maritime affairs. As Spain sought to extend its influence and challenge Portuguese supremacy, it embarked on a rapid naval and colonial development path.
Endnotes
1. William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 1963), 570.
2. Ibid., 570.
3. Ibid., 571.
4. "No other European nations approached the early successes of Spain and Portugal overseas…” - McNeill, Rise of the West, 576.
5. William L. Langer, Pre-Columbian America, in An Encyclopedia of World History, ed. William L. Langer (Cambridge, MA: Riverside Press, 1948), 363.
6. Ibid., 367.
7. Ibid., 366, 367.
8. Ibid., 367.
9. Ibid., 367.
10. McNeill, Rise of the West, 574.
11. Ibid., 576.
12. Langer, Pre-Columbian America, 365.
13. Ibid., 366.
14. McNeill, Rise of the West, 574.
15. Ibid, 575.
16. Ibid, 574.
17. Ibid, 576.
18. Ibid, 574.
19. Langer, Pre-Columbian America, 367.
20. Ibid., 392.
21. Ibid., 392.
II. The Habsburgs v. France
Period – The first half of the 16th century
Ruling Power – France
Rising Power – The Habsburgs
Domain – Imperial succession
Outcome – War
“The Empire was also of profound ideological importance in Europe and indeed beyond Christendom. The emperor outranked all other European Monarchs, at least theoretically. For this reason, some of the most ambitious European potentates – Charles V, Francis I of France, Henry VIII of England – openly campaigned for the title… European states were determined either to secure the imperial title for themselves or to prevent it from falling into hostile hands.” – Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle For Supremacy From 1453 to the Present, 2013, 32.
If the supremacy at sea greatly expanded the scope of European warfare after 1500, as noted by William McNeill, 1 two additional factors soon contributed to the transformation of warfare's intensity and geographical reach in Europe. According to Paul Kennedy, these factors are the Protestant Reformation (a religious movement) and the Habsburg Dynasty (which focused on dynastic expansion).2
The first factor was the onset of the Reformation, sparked by Martin Luther's protest against papal indulgences in 1517. This movement introduced a new powerful dimension to Europe's longstanding dynastic rivalries by adding deep confessional divisions. For socioeconomic reasons, the Protestant Reformation - alongside the Catholic Counter-Reformation's efforts to suppress heresy - exacerbated a divide between southern and northern Europe and between the rising urban middle classes and the traditional feudal elites. While there were notable exceptions to these patterns, the broader result was the fragmentation of "Christendom" and the rise of competing religious doctrines across political borders. It was not until the mid-seventeenth century that a general, though cautious, recognition of Europe's confessional pluralism began to take root as societies recoiled from the prolonged violence and futility of religious warfare.3
The second factor contributing to the more widespread and interconnected pattern of warfare after 1500 was the rise of a powerful dynastic conglomerate: the Habsburgs. Through strategic marriages and inheritances, the Habsburgs amassed a vast network of territories stretching from Gibraltar to Hungary and from Sicily to Amsterdam. This dominion surpassed anything Europe had seen since the time of Charlemagne nearly seven centuries earlier. Initially rooted in Austria, the Habsburg dynasty frequently secured election to the position of Holy Roman Emperor - a title that, while diminished in power since the High Middle Ages, still carried considerable symbolic weight and was coveted by rulers seeking to assert influence in German and wider European affairs.4
In 1519, the Holy Roman Emperor Maximilian I passed away, prompting several powerful European rulers to compete for his position and control over the extensive Holy Roman Empire. Among these contenders were Francis I, the King of France; Henry VIII, the King of England; and Charles I, the King of Spain and Archduke of Austria, who was also a prominent member of the Habsburg dynasty.5 The election of Charles I as Holy Roman Emperor shaped European geopolitics for the next three decades.6
Following his victory in the imperial election of 1519, Charles V (also known as Charles I of Spain) advanced his position as the preeminent ruler of Christian Europe (Christendom). He envisioned a unified Europe under his dominion. He regarded the imperial crown as a divine mandate that legitimized his authority over the Holy Roman Empire and reinforced his broader claims across Europe, including Spain. 7
Francis I of France sought to become Holy Roman Emperor. Like Charles, he believed that holding the imperial crown would grant him the authority to lead all of Christian Europe. Francis argued that securing the title would enable him to block the Habsburgs from dominating Italy and encircling France with their territories. As he stated: "The reason which moves me to gain the empire... is to prevent the said [Habsburg] King from doing so. If he were to succeed, seeing the extent of his kingdoms and lordships... he... would doubtless throw me out of Italy." He also thought becoming emperor would help him lead wars against the Ottomans. 8
"... Charles V's possessions seemed to encircle the French state - and it is hardly an exaggeration to say that the chief aim of the French in Europe over the next two centuries would be to break the influence of the Habsburgs." 9
Between 1521 and 1529, a war broke out between France and Spain, fueled by French support for the Comuneros (rebels in Castile), resistance in Navarre, and France's broader ambitions in Italy. The French captured Pamplona and Fuenterrabia (Fontarabia), gaining initial ground. However, Charles V, backed by the pope, responded swiftly. In 1522, he expelled the French from Milan and successfully seized Florence and Mantua, consolidating Habsburg's dominance in northern Italy.10
In 1524, Spanish forces led by Constable Charles de Bourbon and the Marquis of Pescara invaded Provence and advanced toward Marseilles. The following year, Francis I of France was defeated and captured at the Battle of Pavia on February 24. While in captivity in Madrid, he was compelled to sign the Treaty of Madrid, through which he renounced his claims to Italy and ceded Burgundy to Charles V.11
Upon his release, Francis I violated the terms of the Treaty of Madrid, prompting a renewed outbreak of hostilities. The conflict ultimately ended with the Treaty of Cambrai in 1529. Under this agreement, Charles V formally renounced his claims to Burgundy, while Francis again relinquished his claims to Naples.12
A new conflict phase emerged in 1536, centered on the succession to Milan. This dispute led to a French invasion of Provence and culminated in the inconclusive Treaty of Nice in 1538. Tensions flared again between 1542 and 1544, as war resumed between Francis I and Charles V. This round of fighting took place primarily in the Netherlands and Roussillon, with significant repercussions in Italy.13
The conflict was resolved by the Treaty of Crepy, signed on September 18, 1544. As part of the Agreement, France abandoned its claims to Naples. The treaty also proposed a dynastic marriage: the Duke of Orleans, Francis's son, would marry Charles's daughter - bringing the Netherlands and Franche-Comte as dowry - or Charle's niece, who would bring Milan. However, this marriage arrangement ultimately failed.14
The final phase of the Habsburg-Valois rivalry unfolded between 1551 and 1559, culminating in the Treaty of Cateau-Cambrésis on April 3, 1559.15
The rivalry between Spanish Hapsburgs and France over the imperial crown in the early 16th century can be understood as a conflict between a dominant continental power and an emerging power. Before Spain ascended to the imperial title, France wielded considerable influence in Europe, particularly through its control over prosperous and strategically vital regions in Italy. This dominance positioned France as the foremost European power at the time.
As Paul Kennedy notes, “The first series of major wars focused upon Italy, whose rich and vulnerable city-states had tempted the French monarchs to invade as early as 1494 and, and with equal predictability, had produced various coalitions of rival powers (Spain, the Austrian Habsburgs, even England) to force the French to withdraw.”16 - This observation highlights the extent of France's dominance in Italy during the first half of the 16th century. No single European power could expel France from the peninsula alone; only a broad coalition could pose an effective counterweight. Spain, in particular, saw the imperial crown as a means to harness broader imperial resources and political legitimacy.
According to William McNeill, "From the sixteenth century onward, the most successful and influential states of Europe were located along the Atlantic coast. The first great power of modern Europe was Spain, where Ferdinand of Aragon (1479-1516) availed himself of his marriage with Isabella of Castile to weld the two kingdoms into a new and formidable power. Ferdinand's most effective instrument for reducing the separate kingdoms and estates of his realm to obedience was the Spanish Inquisition."17
McNeill believes Spain's rise to power in the early 16th century was not solely due to its alliance with the Catholic Church. He notes that Spain's strength also rested on American wealth and a capable, professional army. However, these resources proved insufficient to manage the vast responsibilities of ruling a sprawling dynastic empire.18
“For when the young Charles of Hapsburg made good his claim to succeed his grandfather Ferdinand on the Spanish throne (1516), he brought with him the Hapsburg lands of Germany, together with the Burgundian inheritance in the Low Countries, and presently added the claims and aspirations of Holy Roman Emperor (1519) to this array of dignities. Thereafter, Spanish national policy became inextricably entangled with the Pan-European dynastic interests of the Hapsburgs and married itself to the glamorous but moribund imperial ideal." 19
Additionally, McNeill observes that even after Charles V abdicated in 1556 - dividing his empire between his brother Ferdinand (who received the imperial title) and his son Philip II (who retained Spain) - the burdens of the empire remained. Philip II, now free to concentrate on Spanish affairs and supported primarily by the Catholic Church, still struggled to maintain dominance. Spain could not suppress the Dutch Revolt (beginning in 1568) and faced hostility from England. Despite narrowing its focus, Spain remained overextended and ultimately failed to preserve control over its European and colonial holdings.20
To summarize, McNeill interprets that Spain initially emerged as a great power in Europe. However, the imperial crown - which the Spanish monarch believed would enhance the kingdom's strength - ultimately proved to be a burden rather than a benefit. The resulting overextension played a significant role in Spain's gradual decline in power.
Similarly, Paul Kennedy asserts that “Given the imbalance in force between France and the Habsburg territories at this time, it was probably not too difficult for Charles V to keep blocking these French attempts at expansion. The task became the harder, however, because as Holy Roman emperor he had inherited many other foes.” 21
Kennedy also highlights the significant support that the Ottomans provided to France. He notes, “Much the most formidable of these were the Turks, who not only had expanded across the Hungarian plain in the 1520s (and were besieging Vienna in 1529), but also posed a naval threat against Italy and, in conjunction with the Barbary corsairs of North Africa, against the coasts of Spain itself. What also aggravated this situation was the tacit and unholy alliance which existed in these decades between the Ottoman sultan and Francis I against the Habsburgs: in 1542, French and Ottoman fleets actually combined in an assault upon Nice… Charles V’s other great area of difficulty lay in Germany, which had been torn asunder by the Reformation and where Luther’s challenge to the old order was now being supported by a League of Protestant princely states… any enhancement of Habsburg and imperial authority always alarmed Charles V’s rivals, so that the northern German princes, the Turks, Henry II of France (1547-1559), and even the papacy all strove to weaken his position.” 22
Did the imperial crown overextend Spain's responsibilities? Even had Spain fought alone, the burden would have been immense, but France's alliance with the Ottomans only compounded the challenge. Whether due to internal overreach or external opposition, Spain's decline seemed inevitable.
Spain, per se, was already a great power, while France was a dominant continental force. However, after acquiring the imperial crown, Spain rose further within the broader Habsburg system - gaining new resources and inheriting the vulnerabilities of its constituent kingdoms. As Spain pursued ambitions to encircle France in Italy, it found itself in a paradoxical position: both the ruling power and a rising one, depending on the lens of analysis. The Habsburg territories - Spain, Austria, and the Low Countries - rose together as a political monolith but carried the burdens of dynastic overreach. By contrast, France received support from the Ottoman Empire without absorbing its internal vulnerabilities. This asymmetry in alliance versus inheritance left Spain exposed on multiple fronts, while France remained more flexible and externally supported. Therefore, Spain's attempt to project dominance ultimately strained its capacity and contributed to its decline.
As a result, "Leadership of Europe moved north to France, England, and Holland in the seventeenth century.” 23
Endnotes
1. William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), 570.
2. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 32.
3. Ibid., 32.
4. Ibid., 32.
5. Brendan Simms, Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (London: Penguin Books, 2013), 33.
6. Ibid., 27.
7. Ibid., 33.
8. Ibid., 33.
9. Kennedy, Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 33.
10. William L. Langer, France, 1483-1641, in An Encyclopedia of World History, ed. William L. Langer (Cambridge, MA: Riverside Press, 1948), 386.
11. Ibid., 386.
12. William L. Langer, The Iberian Peninsula, in An Encyclopedia of World History, ed. William L. Langer (Cambridge, MA: Riverside Press, 1948), 388.
13. Ibid., 382.
14. Ibid., 388.
15. Ibid., 388.
16. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 36.
17. McNeill, The Rise of the West, 570.
18. Ibid., 580.
19. Ibid., 580.
20. "... Even after Charles V abdicated (1556) and the imperial title passed to his brother in Austria, thus leaving his son Philip II (d. 1598) free to concentrate Spain's strength upon the support of only one of the two universal institutions of the medieval past - the papacy - Spaniards still proved unable to overcome Dutch (from 1568) and English harassments.” - McNeill, The Rise of the West, 580.
21. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 36, 37.
22. Ibid., 36, 37.
23. McNeill, The Rise of the West, 580.
III. England v. the Habsburgs & France
Period – The first half of the 16th century
Ruling Power – The Habsburgs & France
Rising Power – England
Domain – Imperial succession
Outcome – No War
“England, too, was profoundly concerned with the imperial title. In 1519, Henry VIII threw his hat into the ring against Charles and Francis. His candidature reflected a determination to rebuild the English empire in France and to assert herself in Europe more generally…” - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, 2013, p. 33.
The Holy Roman Empire was crucial and strategic for England as well.1 In 1519, King Henry VIII of England vied with Charles of Spain and Francis of France for the title of Holy Roman Emperor. Henry's candidacy was driven by England's desire to rebuild its Empire in France and to assert its influence more broadly in Europe.2
Henry VIII became king of England after his predecessor, Henry VII, in 1509. He was a member of the Holy League and claimed the French crown as well. In 1512, he sent troops to Spain, England's ally, to launch a coordinated invasion of France; however, the mission was unsuccessful. The following year, in 1513, he went to France alongside Emperor Maximilian. During this campaign, they won a bloodless victory at the Battle of the Spurs on August 17.3
On September 9, 1513, in the Battle of Flodden Field, Henry VIII defeated and killed James IV of Scotland, allied with France. In August 1514, England and France signed a peace agreement under which Tournay was ceded to England. However, in 1518, France purchased Tournay back from England for 600,000 crowns.4
After the 1519 elections, Charles I of Spain succeeded his paternal grandfather, Maximilian, as Holy Roman Emperor.5
In 1520, near Calais, Henry VIII met with Francis I of France.6 Over the years, Henry became increasingly concerned about Francis's growing power and sought to limit his influence. 7
In 1534, the English Parliament passed the Act of Supremacy, declaring Henry VIII the Supreme Head of the Church of England. This action formally separated England from the authority of the Pope in Rome, marking the beginning of the English Reformation.8
In 1540, Henry sent diplomats to engage with German princes and Protestant leaders within the Empire.9
Henry VIII was unsuccessful in his attempt to become the Holy Roman Emperor. Had he succeeded, Europe could have changed significantly. The British Empire may have expanded, and European politics might have been more influenced by the English parliamentary system, leading to what could be described as "a more British Europe." 10
Henry VIII died on January 28, 1547.11
Endnotes
1. “The Empire was also of vital strategic importance to England…” – Brendan Simms, Empires, 1453-1648, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present ( United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 34.
2. Ibid., 33.
3. William L. Langer, The Early Modern Period: A. Europe and The Near East, 1500-1648, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: The Riverside Press, 1940), 369.
4. Ibid.
5. “… Charles, the eldest son of Philip and Joan. Born in 1500, he became Duke of Burgundy at the age of fifteen and Charles I of Spain a year later, and then - in 1519 – he succeeded his paternal grandfather Maximilian I…” – Paul Kennedy, The Habsburg Bid for Mastery, 1519-1659, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 33.
6. “1520, June 7. Meeting of Henry VIII and Francis I of France near Calais (Field of the Cloth of Gold)” – Langer, The Early Modern Period, 369.
7. Simms, Empires, 1453-1648, 33.
8. Langer, The Early Modern Period, 370.
9. “… Henry VIII joined the scramble to contain Charles V in the 1540s, he dispatched missions in search of ‘some league or amity with the princes and protentates of Germany…” Simms, Empires, 1453-1648, 30.
10. “Henry’s bid failed, but it is fascinating to speculate what would have happened if the king had won the imperial crown – making him Henry VIII of Germany as well as Henry VIII of England – and if his successors had kept it: history would have been very different. English forms of government might have spread to the continent: Calais enjoyed parliamentary representation, and even Tournai in Flanders, briefly held by Henry, sent a delegation to Westminster. There would have been a very different British Empire, and perhaps also a more British Europe” - Simms Empires, 1453-1648, 34.
11. Langer, The Early Modern Period, 370.
IV. Persia v. the Ottoman Empire
Period – The 16th and mid-17th century
Ruling Power – The Ottoman Empire
Rising Power – The Safavid Persia
Domain – Regional Dominance
Outcome – War
"The Ottoman Empire was, of course, much more than a military machine... For centuries before 1500 the world of Islam had been culturally and technologically ahead of Europe." - Paul Kennedy in The Rise and Fall of The Great Powers, 1988, 10.
"From 1606 until 1639, the Ottomans concentrated upon their war with Persia and correspondingly relaxed their pressure against Christian Europe..." - William H. McNeill in The Rise of The West, 1963, 621.
Paul Kennedy suggests that, from both historical and geographical perspectives, Muslim states formed "the most rapidly expanding forces" in world affairs during the sixteenth century. He adds that not only were the Ottoman Turks advancing westward, but the Safavid dynasty in Persia was also experiencing a resurgence of power, prosperity, and high culture, especially in the reigns of Ismail I (1500-1524) and Abbas I (1587-1629). 1
However, the main challenger for Europe was the Ottoman Empire - "… the greatest Muslim challenge to early modern Europe lay, of course, with the Ottoman Turks... Already by the beginning of the sixteenth century, their domains stretched from the Crimea (where they had overrun Genoese trading posts) and the Aegean (where they were dismantling the Venetian Empire) to the Levant. By 1516, Ottoman forces had seized Damascus, and in the following year they entered Egypt, shattering the Mamluk forces by the use of Turkish cannon." 2
Additionally, Kennedy notes that the Ottoman Empire was much more than a military machine - “A conquering elite (like the Manchus in China), the Ottomans had established a unity of official faith, culture, and language over an area greater than the Roman Empire, and over vast numbers of subject peoples. 3
The Ottoman Empire was already a ruling power in the 16th century with its influence extending across three continents. The Ottomans had conducted naval expeditions that reached as far as India and controlled key regions, including Cyprus, Malta, Tunis, and the entire eastern coast of the Red Sea.4
William Langer, in his description of Charles' expedition to Tunis in 1535, suggests that Tunis "was part of a great duel between Spain and the formidable Turkish power." The term "formidable Turkish power" suggests that the Ottoman Empire was already a powerful force at that time. 5
Paul Kennedy, while discussing the chronology and geographical scope of European warfare, notes that "... Spain found itself repeatedly committed to major new wars against the powerful Ottoman Empire, starting with the 1560 expedition..." 6 He also suggests that “for centuries before 1500 the world of Islam had been culturally and technologically ahead of Europe.” 7
This implies that the Ottoman Empire was already an established ruling power during both the first and second halves of the 16th century, suggesting that its rise began earlier.
The Safavid Persia started rising at the beginning of the 16th century, achieving its zenith of power during the reign of Shah Abbas the Great. According to William McNeill, "throughout the sixteenth century, the Safavi empire remained a profoundly disturbing force in the Moslem world, dedicated to the defense and propagation of Shi'a doctrines at home and abroad. This policy implied a normal state of hostility with the Ottoman empire, punctuated only briefly by periods of peace.” 8
McNeill also explains that "the violent duel between Shi'a and Sunni, which thus divided the heartland of Islam for more than a century, echoed throughout the Moslem world and became an inescapable political issue for every Muslim ruler." 9
One of the earliest conflicts between the Safavid and Ottoman empires took place in 1514, when Selim I defeated Shah Ismail of Persia, who had supported Selim's brother, Ahmed. William Langer highlights that religious differences intensified this struggle, as the Kizilbashes in Anatolia were Shi'ites and fully aligned with the Persians. Selim, a staunch Sunni, reportedly slaughtered 40,000 of his own heretical subjects before moving against the Persians. 10
On August 23, 1514, Selim defeated the Persians at Chaldiran, east of the Euphrates. He captured and looted Tabriz but was forced to retreat due to the Janissaries' objections to further advances. 11
In 1515, the Turks conquered eastern Anatolia and Kurdistan. The following year, in 1516, Selim launched a second campaign against Persia. However, he was diverted by the Mamluk Sultan of Egypt, Kansu al-Gauri, who was allied with Persia and arrived at Aleppo with an army. On August 24, 1516, at the Battle of Marjdabik, north of Aleppo, Selim brutally defeated Kansu. 12
On January 22, 1517, the Turks captured and sacked Cairo. 13
Following the death of Selim, his only son, Suleiman I (also known as Suleiman the Magnificent), reigned from 1520 to 1566. 14
In 1534, a war broke out between the Turks and the Safavids. The Shah of Persia at that time was Shah Thamasp, who had been negotiating with Charles V. The Turks advanced on Tabriz and successfully conquered Baghdad and Mesopotamia. 15
In 1548, the Ottomans launched a second expedition against Persia and recaptured Tabriz. 16
In 1552, the Persians took the offensive and captured Erzurum. Following this, in 1553, Suleiman advanced against the Persians and devastated the western part of the country. A peace agreement was reached in 1555. 17
On September 5, 1566, Suleiman died during the siege of Sziget. Selim II reigned (1566 to 1574). 18
William Langer suggests that the phenomenal decline of the Ottoman Empire began in 1585, "...due to the degeneracy of the sultans, the abandonment of the government to viziers (mostly favorites), the growth of corruption and harem influence, the emergence of governing cliques (Jews, Greeks, etc.) and the inevitable decline of the military organization, especially the Janissary corps, to which Turks were gradually admitted." He adds that "as the empire had advanced to the frontier of strong European states, conquests became more difficult and military grants fewer." 19
In 1590, after a long and aimless war that began in 1577, peace was achieved between the Turks and the Persians. The Turks gained control of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Shirwan, thus extending their borders to the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. 20
Between 1602 and 1618, the Ottomans and Persians engaged in further conflicts. At that time, Persia was ruled by Abbas the Great, who had reorganized its entire forces. 21
According to William McNeill, "from 1606 until 1639, the Ottomans concentrated upon their war with Persia and correspondingly relaxed their pressure against Christian Europe..." 22
In 1603, Abbas retook Tabriz, Erivan, Shirwan, and Kars. Following this, he achieved a significant victory at Lake Urmia and subsequently captured Baghdad, Mosul, and Diarbekr. 23
In 1612, a peace agreement was established between the parties. However, the war resumed in 1616. After two years, a new treaty was signed, under which the Turks abandoned Georgia and Azerbaijan. 24
Murad IV reigned from 1623 to 1640. During his rule, he took Hamadan from Persia in 1630 and also reconquered Erivan and Tabriz. In 1638, he retook Baghdad. He then established a new agreement with the Persians, which stipulated that the Persians would retain control of Erivan, while the Turks would maintain control of Baghdad. 25
By the seventeenth century, however, when the Safavid empire reached its apogee under Shah Abbas the Great (1587-1629), the fanaticism of the Shi'a revolution had faded, at least in court circles; and a lasting peace with the Ottomans was concluded in 1639. 26
After the long-lasting peace established in 1639, the struggle for influence continued between 1725 and 1727. During this period, the Turks reached an agreement with Russia to secure part of Transcaucasia, which ultimately led to war with Persia under Nadir Shah. In 1730, Nadir Shah successfully drove the Turks out of the region. 27
According to William Langer, an inconclusive conflict occurred between the Turks and Persians from 1743 to 1746, indicating a general conclusion to a prolonged rivalry. 28
The Ottoman Empire was a ruling power for nearly a century, spanning three continents and engaging in naval expeditions. At the beginning of the sixteenth century, Safavid Persia began to emerge as a new regional power and quickly became one of the main rivals to the Ottomans.
While the Ottoman Turks wielded transcontinental influence, stretching across the Near East, Europe, North Africa, and parts of Asia, the Safavid Empire's power remained largely regional, focused on Persia, the Caucasus, and surrounding areas.
Endnotes
1. Paul Kennedy, The Rise of the Western World, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London: Unwin Hyman Limited: 1988), 9.
2. Ibid., 9-10.
3. Ibid., 10.
4. William L. Langer, Europe and the Near East: The Ottoman Empire, 1538 A.D.-1571 A.D. in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 423-424.
5. William L. Langer, Europe and The Near East, 1500-1648: The Iberian Peninsula in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press,1940), 388.
6. Paul Kennedy, Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London: Unwin Hyman Limited:1988), 37.
7. Paul Kennedy, The Rise of the Western World, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 10.
8. William H. McNeill, The Changing Balance of the Ecumene 1500-1700 A.D. in The Rise of the West (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), 619-621.
9. Ibid., 621.
10. Langer, The Ottoman Empire, 420.
11. Ibid., 421.
12. Ibid., 422.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Ibid., 424.
20. Ibid.
21. Ibid.
22. McNeill, The Rise of the West, 621.
23. Langer, The Ottoman Empire, 424.
24. Ibid.
25. Ibid.
26. McNeill, The Rise of the West, 619-621.
27. Langer, The Ottoman Empire, 484.
28. Ibid.
V. Sweden v. the Habsburgs
Period – The 17th Century
Ruling Power – The Habsburgs
Rising Power – Sweden
Domain – Control over Germany
Outcome – War
“Sweden, too, became more and more concerned with events in Germany. King Gustavus Adolphus and the Swedish parliament, the Rijkstag, observed the Habsburg Advance there during the early stages of Thirty Years War with growing alarm. If nothing was done, the king warned the Diet in December 1627, the imperialists 'would soon be approaching our borders.' ” - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, 2013, 33.
Sweden underwent two distinct phases of geopolitical behavior in the 16th and 17th centuries.
During the reign of the House of Vasa (1523-1654), Sweden became a dominant power in the Baltic region. According to William Langer, "Sweden became the strongest state in the Baltic." 1
Between 1560 and 1568, under the rule of Eric XIV, Sweden continued its expansion in the Baltic, gaining control of Reval (now Tallinn) and the surrounding territory in 1561. However, toward the end of his reign, Eric XIV descended into madness and was ultimately deposed. His brother, John III, and John's son, Sigismund, continued Sweden's involvement in the Livonian War, which led to Sweden acquiring all of Estonia, including Narva, through the Treaty of Teusina in 1595. 2
In 1599, following a rebellion in Sweden, Charles IX, the youngest son of Gustavus Vasa, ascended to the throne, officially becoming king in 1604. During his reign, from 1604 to 1611, Charles IX intervened in Russia. He died in 1611, and his son, Gustavus II Adolphus, took over, ruling until 1632. 3
Gustavus II Adolphus engaged in a war with Russia, which ended with the Treaty of Stolbovo in 1617. As a result of this treaty, Sweden acquired eastern Carelia and Ingria, which effectively cut Russia off from the Baltic Sea. Following this, Sweden fought a war with Poland from 1621 to 1629, a conflict that William Langer attributed to dynastic competition.4
Gustavus Adolphus initiated domestic reforms aimed at reconciliation. In 1611, a royal charter granted the Council and the Estates a voice in legislative decisions and the power to veto matters of war and peace. He modernized administration and the judicial system, promoted education, commerce, and industry, and welcomed foreign immigration. 5
Sweden, led by King Gustavus Adolphus and its parliament, grew increasingly alarmed by the Habsburgs' growing influence over Germany during the early stages of the Thirty Years' War. Germany was strategically vital to the Habsburgs, primarily due to its abundant manpower and military resources, which could be used by the Habsburgs to achieve their imperial goals.6
Swedish leaders feared that if the Habsburgs were allowed to dominate Germany, they would pose a direct threat to Sweden's national security. To avoid this, in 1630, Sweden chose to act preemptively before the danger reached its borders. With full support from the Riksdag, Gustavus Adolphus launched a military intervention, landing troops at Usedom on the Pomeranian coast to establish a base of operations.7
In 1631, Swedish forces secured a decisive victory at Breitenfeld, which marked a turning point in the conflict. Following this success, Swedish troops advanced deep into southern Germany, even reaching Munich, thereby seriously challenging Habsburg dominance in Central Europe.8
In 1632, King Gustavus Adolphus advanced his military against Habsburg forces, moving through Nuremberg to the Danube, where he confronted the seasoned imperial commander, Johann Tilly, at the Battle of Rain, near the confluence of the Lenz and Danube rivers. Tilly was mortally wounded and later died in Ingolstadt.9
After this victory, Gustavus proceeded to Augsburg and attempted to besiege Maximilian in Ingolstadt. Although his efforts were unsuccessful, he managed to force the surrender of Munich, a significant blow to the Bavarian resistance. In response, Imperial General Wallenstein was recalled to assist Maximilian. 10
Between July and September, Gustavus and Wallenstein established fortified camps near Nuremberg, resulting in a tense eleven-week standoff. When Wallenstein declined to engage in battle, Gustavus took the offensive. Despite suffering heavy losses while attacking Wallenstein's entrenched positions, Swedish forces advanced along the Danube. 11
Wallenstein then shifted his focus northward, launching a campaign in Saxony. In response, Gustavus marched rapidly through Kitzingen and Schweinfurt to join Bernhard of Saxe-Weimar in Arnstadt. From there, the allied Protestant forces pushed toward Naumburg, aiming to intercept Wallenstein before he could regroup. Upon hearing that Wallenstein had dispatched Pappenheim from Leipzig to the Rhine, Gustavus attacked the imperial army with a force of 20,000 Swedes against 18,000 imperials. This culminated in the Battle of Lutzen on November 16, 1632, where Gustavus Adolphus was killed in action. Despite his death, Swedish forces, under the new leadership of Bernhard of Saxe-Weimar, secured a tactical victory, ensuring Sweden's continued influence in the war despite the loss of its king. 12
Sweden's political behavior in the 16th century was characterized by offensive and expansionist actions toward other states, marking the first phase of its rise. Brendan Simms refers to Swedes in this period as rising Swedes.” 13 As for the second phase, the 17th century, Simms states that claims about Sweden having imperial ambitions under Gustavus Adolphus were speculations – "Many speculated that the Swedish king might attempt to seize the imperial crown himself. Elector Johan Georg of Saxony even accused Chancellor Oxenstierna of wanting to become 'absolute master and dictator perpetuum in Germany." 14
At the beginning of the 17th century, Sweden adopted a defensive posture but gradually shifted toward offensive strategies through the implementation of preemptive measures. Although the second phase was defined mainly by defensive strategies, Sweden's trajectory and strategic behavior still reflect the dynamics of a rising power confronting a dominant ruling power - the Habsburgs.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, Europe and The Near East, 1500-1648: Scandinavia,” in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 410.
2. Ibid., 413.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Brendan Simms, Empires, 1453-1648, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books,, 2013), 31.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid.
9. Langer, Europe and The Near East, 1500-1648, 406.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. “The Russians also seized parts of the northern Polish Commonwealth in the early 1560s. At around the same time, the Swedes annexed the northern half of present-day Estonia. Hemmed in on all sides by the Habsburgs, the rising Swedes, Muscovy and the Ottoman Empire, the weaker powers entered into a series of territorial merges to stay competitive in an increasingly predatory neigbourhood.” - Simms, Empires, 1453-1648, 40.
14. Ibid., 31.
VI. England v. The Dutch Republic
Period – The 17th century
Ruling Power – The Dutch Republic
Rising Power – England
Domain – Oversea influence and trade dominance
Outcome – War
"1651, Oct. 9. First Navigation Act passed forbidding the importation of goods into England except in English vessels or in vessels of the country producing the goods. This typical measure of mercantile economy helped the British merchant marine to gain supremacy over the Dutch." – William L. Langer in An Encyclopedia of World History, 1940, 425.
"1668, Jan. 13. The triple alliance between England, Holland, and Sweden... Charles II went behind Parliament and signed with Louis the Treaty of Dover (May, 1670) in secret provisions of which he agreed that... he would support Louis in his wars with Spain and Holland." - William L. Langer in An Encyclopedia of World History, 1940, 427.
In the 17th century, the Dutch Republic emerged as a great power both in Europe and beyond. Despite its small size, limited population, and politically fragmented territories, this nation was formed amidst the turmoil of revolution and maintained its influence for nearly a century.1
According to Paul Kennedy, before becoming a great power, the Dutch Republic faced financial struggles and a decline in population during the late 16th century. He contends - "It would be unwise to exaggerate the wealth and financial stability of the Dutch republic or to suggest that it found it easy to pay for the prolonged conflict, especially in its early stages. In the eastern and southern parts of the United Provinces, the war caused considerable damage, loss of trade, and decline in population. Even the prosperous province of Holland found the tax burdens enormous; in 1579 it had to provide 960,000 florins for the war, in 1599 almost 5.5 million florins. By the early seventeenth century, with the annual costs of the war against Spain rising to 10 million florins, many wondered how much longer the struggle could be maintained without financial strain. Fortunately for the Dutch, Spain's economy - and its corresponding ability to pay the mutiny-prone Army of Flanders - had suffered even more, and at last caused Madrid to agree to the truce of 1609.” 2
Despite the financial struggles caused by the prolonged conflict, the Dutch economy began to grow rapidly in the 1590s. This growth enabled the Dutch government to finance the war. Kennedy explains that one key reason for this prosperity was the interaction between a growing population and an increasingly entrepreneurial spirit. After gaining independence from Habsburg rule, along with a natural increase in population, tens or even hundreds of thousands of refugees from the south and other parts of Europe migrated to the Netherlands. Many of these immigrants were skilled workers, teachers, craftsmen, and capitalists who brought valuable contributions. Kennedy points out that after Spanish troops destroyed Antwerp in 1576, Amsterdam gained significant importance in international trade, and the Dutch took full advantage of every opportunity for commercial advancement. 3
"... the Dutch took every opportunity offered them for commercial advancement. Their domination of the rich herring trade and their reclamation of land from the sea provided additional sources of wealth. Their vast mercantile marine, and in particular their fluyts (simple, robust freighters), earned them the carrying trade of much of Europe by 1600: timber, grain, cloth, salt, herrings were transported by Dutch vessels along every waterway. To the disgust of their English allies, and of many Dutch Calvinist divines, Amsterdam traders would willingly supply such goods to their mortal enemy, Spain, if the profits outweighed the risks. At home, raw materials were imported in vast quantities and then "finished" by the various trades of Amsterdam, Delft, Leyden, and so on. With "sugar refining, melting, distilling, brewing, tobacco cutting, silk throwing, pottery, glass, armament manufacture, printing, paper making" among the chief industries, it was hardly surprising that by 1622 around 56 percent of Holland's population of 670,000 lived in medium-sized towns. Every other region in the world must have seemed economically backward by comparison." 4
Kennedy also highlights two additional components of the Dutch economy that strengthened its military power: overseas expansion and Amsterdam's increasing significance as the hub of international finance. 5
Hostilities between Spain and the Dutch Republic resumed in 1621, which negatively impacted Dutch overseas trade due to the war. 6
According to William Langer, "The first half of the 17th century, during which the Dutch provinces were still at war with Spain to secure their independence, was nevertheless the golden age of the Netherlands, a period of unexampled flowering in art and literature. This was probably due primarily to the unprecedented expansion of Dutch commerce, which resulted from the closing of Lisbon to Dutch trade after the annexation of Portugal to Spain." 7
In 1648, the German War came to an end with the signing of the Treaties of Münster and Osnabrück. This agreement is collectively known as the 'Treaty of Westphalia.' 8 According to Brendan Simms, the Peace of Westphalia transformed the European state system, and Spain finally recognized the independence of the United Provinces (the Dutch Republic), retaining only Flanders and Wallonia, which were parts of the Spanish Netherlands.9
In 1649, England established the Commonwealth, which forcibly incorporated Ireland and Scotland following conquest. The Commonwealth was a republican form of government in which power was held by the army and its leader, Oliver Cromwell. The title of king was abolished, along with the House of Lords.10
On October 9, 1651, England enacted the First Navigation Act, which stipulated that goods could only be imported into England using either English ships or ships from the country of origin's fleet. William Langer notes that "This typical measure of mercantile economy helped the British merchant marine to gain supremacy over the Dutch." 11
As a result of this act, war broke out between the Dutch and the English on July 8, 1652, and this war, as William Langer suggests, was “almost wholly naval.” The English navy, commanded by Blake and Monk, achieved victories at the Downs even before the formal declaration of war. They defeated the Dutch commander Van Tromp near Portland, securing a win for England. Additionally, England triumphed at North Foreland. A significant victory occurred in Texel, where Dutch commander Van Tromp was killed. On April 5, 1654, both parties agreed to a peace treaty.12
Following this, Cromwell encountered internal tensions between the Rump Parliament and the Army. On April 20, 1653, he dissolved the Rump Parliament and disbanded the Council of State. Later, on December 26, 1653, Cromwell established the Protectorate and became the Lord Protector of England. 13
Between 1656 and 1659, England engaged in war with Spain. England took Jamaica from Spain but failed to take Hispaniola. 14
On September 3, 1658, Oliver Cromwell died. 15
Between 1665 and 1667, a war broke out between the Netherlands and England. On June 3, 1665, the Dutch fleet was defeated by the English off the coast of Lowestoft. France joined the war against England in January 1666. 16
On July 21, 1667, England, Holland, France, and Denmark signed the Treaties of Breda. Under this agreement, England gained Antigua, Montserrat, and St. Kitts from France, while France received Acadia. Additionally, England and Holland agreed to maintain the status quo as of May 21, 1667: England kept New Amsterdam, and Holland retained Surinam. The Navigation Acts were also amended to allow goods transported down the Rhine to be brought to England in Dutch vessels. 17
On January 13, 1668, England, Holland, and Sweden formed the Triple Alliance against Louis XIV of France. However, despite this alliance, King Charles II of England secretly made a deal with Louis XIV in 1670, known as the Treaty of Dover. Under this treaty, Charles promised that he and his brother James would publicly convert to the Catholic Church and that he would support Louis in wars against Spain and Holland. In return, Louis promised Charles an annual payment of £200,000 while the war lasted, as well as the assistance of 6,000 men in the event of an insurrection. 18
In May 1674, the Reichstag declared an "imperial war" against Louis XIV of France for the first time. By the end of that year, Prussian forces were engaged in open hostilities with France. In response, Louis supported the Swedes and also backed the revolt against Spanish rule in Sicily, which erupted in 1674. That same year, England joined the attack on the Netherlands. The young John Churchill, who would later become the Duke of Marlborough, was among those sent to Germany to support Louis against the imperial forces. In August 1674, the Dutch made a separate peace agreement that guaranteed their independence.19
England’s enactment of the Navigation Act against the Dutch Republic illustrates the ambition of a rising power to achieve trade dominance over a ruling power. England’s subsequent engagement in war with Spain, along with its intentions to acquire Hispaniola and Jamaica, as well as its betrayal of the Triple Alliance and secret dealings with France, demonstrate that England harbored not only regional ambitions but also aspirations for global dominance.
Endnotes
1. Paul Kennedy, International Comparisons, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1988), 66-67.
2. Ibid., 68.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid., 69.
6. Ibid.
7. William L. Langer, The Dutch Republic, 1652 A.D. -1731 A.D. in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 438.
8. Brendan Simms, Empires, 1453-1648, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 49.
9. Ibid., 50.
10. William L. Langer, England, Scotland, and Ireland: B. Europe and The Near East, 1500-1648, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 425.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid., 426.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid., 427.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Brendan Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 61-62.
VII. Great Britain v. France
Period – The Late 17th to the early 18th century
Ruling Power – France
Rising Power – Great Britain
Domain – Global Empire & European dominance
Outcome – War
"English politics throughout the 1690s were dominated by how best to wage the war, with Whigs supporting William in his call for direct military intervention on the continent, while the Tories preferred a more indirect maritime and colonial strategy. There was little disagreement, however, about the fact that Louis had to be stopped, or that a free people required a strong , and thus expensive, state to protect them." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy from 1453 to the Present, 2013, 69.
As mentioned in the previous case of England v. the Dutch Republic, after the secret deal in the 1670s known as the Treaty of Dover, Charles II of England committed to supporting King Louis of France against the Dutch Republic. In exchange, Louis promised to provide military assistance to England.1
Louis viewed the United Provinces as an obstacle to his ambitions across north-western Europe and sought to overcome them. In April 1670, he annexed the imperial fief of Lorraine, severing the connection between the Free County of Burgundy and the Spanish Netherlands. Two months later, French troops broke through the Spanish Netherlands and advanced into the United Provinces. As they moved to attack the Dutch from the east, they disdainfully marched through Cleves, which was a territory of their ally, Prussia. Brendan Simms notes that "Louis seemed unstoppable" and "It soon became clear, however, that the French king had gone too far." 2
In May 1674, the Reichstag declared an 'imperial war' against Louis XIV, marking the first time France was officially labeled as 'an enemy of the Empire.' By June of that same year, Prussia had entered into open hostilities with France. In retaliation, Louis XIV supported Sweden and backed the four-year Messina revolt against Spanish rule in Sicily, which had begun in 1674. Additionally, in that year, England joined the attack on the Dutch Republic. By 1678, Madrid was compelled to make further territorial concessions to Louis XIV. 3
After Louis's expansion in Europe, concerns were raised by the Whigs in the English Parliament. In April 1675, the English parliamentarian Sir Thomas Littleton warned Parliament about the serious threat posed by Louis's enlargement in Germany, Flanders, the Franche-Comté, and elsewhere. The Whigs criticized King Charles II of England, blaming him for failures in foreign policy and calling for limits on the king's power. 4
Louis's efforts significantly enhanced French border security. His primary concern was the Empire. At that time, Spain was weak, and England, under Charles II and later his successor, James II, from 1685 onward, was both friendly and domestically unstable. The main threat was emerging from the Austrians to the east, backed by the Dutch and possibly the Prussians. 5
In 1686, Sweden, Spain, the Dutch Republic, the Holy Roman Emperor, Brandenburg-Prussia, and many other German princes united to form the League of Augsburg, also known as the Grand Alliance, to confront France. 6
In 1688, Louis XIV of France invaded the Palatinate. To prevent further expansion into the Dutch Republic, William of Orange from the Netherlands invaded England in November of the same year. William believed that restoring constitutional government in England would enable the country to contribute to the defense of European liberties against Louis XIV. According to Brendan Simms, the English "Glorious Revolution" of 1688 was a result of the state system aimed at restoring England's influence in the councils of Europe. 7
Between 1688 and 1697, the Nine Years' War raged between Louis XIV and much of central and western Europe. During this conflict, the English, Dutch, and imperialists concentrated the majority of their resources against France. 8
Between 1689 and 1691, a series of regional conflicts emerged, including the War of the English Succession, which raged in Scotland and Ireland. All these fronts were interconnected. Louis supported James II against the English parliament, while William of Orange pursued him to Ireland, defeating James at the Battle of the Boyne and the Battle of Aughrim.9
According to Brendan Simms, the significant struggle across Europe led to a new phase of resource extraction, mobilization, and bureaucratic consolidation within many states. He notes that "Far ahead of the pack were the two 'maritime powers', England and the United Provinces." 10
He points out that Holland's effective fiscal-military organization enabled it to succeed against the significantly larger resources of Philip II. As for England, in the 1690s, partly influenced by imported Dutch ideas, England "established the strongest and most 'modern' state in Europe." 11
In England, a funded national debt was established with the support of the newly founded Bank of England in 1694. This era also witnessed the emergence of a sophisticated stock and money market. Moreover, the East India Company was created as a semi-state organization. The Triennial Act of 1694 mandated that parliamentary elections occur every three years. Additionally, the removal of censorship enabled free political and commercial discourse both within and outside Parliament. 12
Simms also suggests that "English politics throughout the 1690s were dominated by how best to wage the war, with Whigs supporting William in his call for direct military intervention on the continent, while the Tories preferred a more indirect maritime and colonial strategy. There was little disagreement, however, about the fact that Louis had to be stopped, or that a free people required a strong, and thus expensive, state to protect them." 13
In 1698, the first accurate stock exchange was established in London. 14
On September 16, 1701, James II died, and his son James Edward was proclaimed King of Great Britain and Ireland by Louis XIV. 15
On March 8, 1702, William III died. 16
Between 1702 and 1714, the War of the Spanish Succession occurred due to the death of Charles II of Spain. Charles II was childless, and there were three legal claims to the Spanish throne:
1. Louis XIV of France was both the son of Philip III's elder daughter and the husband of Philip IV's elder daughter. 17
2. Leopold I, representing the German branch of the Habsburgs, was the son of Philip III's younger daughter and the husband of Philip IV's younger daughter. 18
3. The Electoral Prince of Bavaria is the great-grandson of Philip IV and the grandson of Charles II's younger brother. 19
The Spanish Succession also involved political considerations regarding the balance of power in Europe. To maintain this balance, the naval powers, Holland and England, would not allow the great Spanish monarchy to be united with the French crown or to be held by the ruler of the Austrian territories.20
On September 7, 1701, the Grand Alliance of naval powers united with Emperor Leopold I to secure Spanish territories in the Netherlands and Italy for the Austrian House. In contrast, France allied with the Dukes of Savoy and Mantua, along with the Electors of Bavaria and Cologne. Prussia also allied with the Emperor, and Portugal joined the Grand Alliance as well. In 1703, Savoy switched allegiances and joined the Grand Alliance, abandoning France in the process. 21
Three key figures led the Grand Alliance against France: Eugene, Prince of Savoy, the imperial general; Marlborough, the English general formerly known as John Churchill; and A. Heinsius, the pensionary of Holland, who took over after William III died in 1702. 22
Meanwhile, Louis XIV's second grandson, Philip of Anjou, was acknowledged as King Philip V in Spain. 23
The official beginning of the war was marked by Eugene's invasion of Italy in 1701. 24
In 1702, during the battle of Luzzara, the French gained an advantage in Italy that continued until 1706. 25
In 1703, the Bavarians invaded Tyrol but were repelled. Marlborough launched an invasion of the Spanish Netherlands. Meanwhile, the Archduke Charles landed in Spain and invaded Catalonia, where he declared himself Charles III. 26
England captured Gibraltar in 1704. 27
On August 13, 1704, during the battles of Hochstadt and Blenheim, Eugene and Marlborough achieved victory over the Bavarians and the French. 28
In 1706, Charles conquered Madrid and held it for a brief period. Later that same year, on September 7, Eugene and Marlborough secured another victory in Turin against Marsin and the Duke of Orleans. Charles III was subsequently proclaimed in Milan, and the French were expelled from Italy. 29
On July 11, 1708, Marlborough and Eugene achieved another victory at the Battle of Oudenarde against Vendôme and the Duke of Burgundy. 30
On September 11, 1709, Eugene and Marlborough delivered another blow to the French in the Battle of Malplaquet, which turned out to be the bloodiest battle of the war. The allies suffered a loss of 20,000 men. 31
In 1710, hostilities resumed as Vendôme secured a victory over the English. That same year, in August, the Whig ministry in England fell, allowing Marlborough's opponents to gain influence. 32
In 1711, the death of Emperor Joseph made Charles the heir to all Austrian possessions. This meant that the monarchy of Charles V could have been restored if the Spanish inheritance had also passed to him. These developments shifted the political landscape in favor of Louis XIV. 33
In 1712, the Congress of Utrecht convened, where each ally presented its demands separately. As a result, separate treaties of peace were signed, which are collectively known as the Treaty of Utrecht. 34
The Treaty of Utrecht, signed in 1713, established that England would recognize the Protestant succession in its monarchy and confirmed the permanent separation of the crowns of France and Spain. As part of the treaty, France ceded the territories of Newfoundland, Nova Scotia (Acadia), and Hudson Bay to England. However, France retained New France (Quebec). Spain ceded Gibraltar, the island of Minorca, and the Asiento to England, while also surrendering the Spanish Netherlands to the Republic of Holland. Additionally, Philip V was recognized as the King of Spain and its colonies. 35
Despite the ongoing conflict, the Emperor and the empire chose to continue the war. Eugene's campaign turned out to be unsuccessful, and he received inadequate support. Villars captured Landau and Freiburg during this time. Following these losses, the Emperor sought peace with France, negotiating on his behalf at Rastadt and on behalf of the empire at Baden in Switzerland.36
According to the Treaty of Rastadt and Baden, signed between March and September of 1714, Austria gained control of the Spanish Netherlands after an agreement on the barrier for Holland was established. Additionally, Austria retained possession of Naples, Sardinia, and Milan, which were already under Austrian occupation. 37
In the late 17th century, England's foreign policy was initially guided by a focus on self-defense. However, the Glorious Revolution of 1688 marked a significant shift: England's posture became increasingly assertive and outward-facing. This transformation became evident during the Nine Years' War (1688-1697), when England, allied with the Dutch Republic, confronted and checked the expansionist ambitions of France under Louis XIV.
Soon, England emerged as one of Europe's two dominant maritime powers, alongside the Dutch. As Brendan Simms observes, "Far ahead of the pack were the two 'maritime powers', England and the United Provinces." By the 1690s, England had begun to adopt Dutch innovations, resulting in what Simms identifies as the formation of "the strongest and most 'modern' state in Europe."
Domestically, this period was also marked by political upheaval. England's internal politics grew more complex and war-oriented. As Simms further notes, "English politics throughout the 1690s were dominated by how best to wage the war."
The Anglo-French rivalry between the late 17th and early 18th centuries reflects the classical geopolitical dynamic of a rising power (England) challenging the ruling power (France).
Endnotes
1. Brendan Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 61.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid., 61-62.
4. Ibid., 62.
5. Ibid., 64.
6. Ibid., 65.
7. Ibid., 67.
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid., 68.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid., 69.
14. William L. Langer, Europe and the Near East: 1. England, Scotland, and Ireland, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 431.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid.
17. Ibid., 445.
18. Ibid.
19. Ibid.
20. Ibid.
21.Ibid.
22. Ibid.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
27. Ibid.
28. Ibid., 446.
29. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid.
33. Ibid.
34. Ibid.
35. Ibid., 446-447.
36. Ibid., 447.
37. Ibid.
VIII. France v. the United Kingdom
Period – From the 18th to the early 19th century
Ruling Power – The United Kingdom
Rising Power – France
Domain – Dominance in Europe and Americas
Outcome – War
“It soon became clear that the Utrecht settlement was designed to address the challenges of the past, not those of the future. Its primary purpose, the containment of France, became redundant after the death of Louis XIV in September 1715. France... began to reassert itself on the European scene in the 1730s, after a long period of relative passivity following the death of Louis XIV in 1715." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 82-88.
As noted in the previous case - VI. Great Britain v. France, the Treaty of Utrecht, signed in April 1713, established peace between the parties. The British and Dutch reached an accord with France, and the emperor finalized the Treaty of Rastatt the following March. 1
Brendan Simms suggests that "the Utrecht settlement was designed to contain France." However, it quickly became apparent that the treaty was focused on addressing past challenges rather than future ones. As he notes, "Its primary purpose, the containment of France, became redundant after the death of Louis XIV in September 1715." 2
Charles VI, the Holy Roman Emperor, was unlikely to leave behind a male heir. This raised the possibility of a contested succession and potential partition of his territories by neighboring powers after his death. Starting in May 1717, his heir presumptive became his eldest daughter, Maria Theresa. 3
Following a prolonged period of relative inactivity after the death of Louis XIV in 1715, France began to reassert itself on the European stage in the 1730s. This resurgence was partly driven by a renewed sense of dynastic stability with the birth of the Dauphin, the heir to the throne, in 1729. Additionally, growing frustration over the diminishing benefits of the alliance with Britain played a role, as the two nations' commercial and German policies increasingly diverged. 4
But how was France rising? - As Brendan Simms explains, "France was already 'secretly' rebuilding the port facilities around Dunkirk, and investing heavily in her navy. Her economy was expanding at an impressive rate; so was her colonial footprint, especially in the Americas. But the main concern of French policy remained the growth of Austrian power in the Empire, which, as an official in the French foreign ministry remarked in 1729, threatened 'to alter the government of the Empire to such an extent that it would become a monarchy, allowing the emperor to elevate himself to the absolute ruler of Germany, which would indeed overturn the balance of power in Europe.' 5
The resurgence of French power caught other European nations off guard. In response, Britain shifted its stance towards Charles and returned to its traditional policy of supporting the Habsburgs as a counterbalance to France. 6
In 1731, Britain allied with Austria through the Treaty of Vienna,7 guaranteeing the Pragmatic Sanction. 8
In 1740, Britain was preoccupied with its costly colonial war against Spain, while Russia, an ally, was embroiled in a succession struggle following the death of Tsarina Anne in November of that year. Meanwhile, the Holy Roman Empire was preparing to determine who would succeed Emperor Charles. There were two main candidates: the Habsburg candidate, Francis Stephen, and the French-supported Charles Albert, Elector of Bavaria. All provisions outlined in the Pragmatic Sanction were rendered void. The French, Saxons, Bavarians, Spaniards, and others rushed in to exploit what they believed to be Maria Theresa's defenseless condition. 9
According to William Langer, the claimants for the Austrian inheritance included Charles Albert, Philip V of Spain, and Augustus III of Saxony. 10
In September, the Saxons launched an attack against Maria Theresa, aiming to secure Silesia for themselves. In December 1741, Charles Albert declared himself King of Bohemia. That winter, Spanish forces launched an attack on the Habsburgs in northern Italy. In January of the following year, the Imperial College of Electors elected Charles Albert as Emperor. As Brendan Simms notes, "for the first time in many hundreds of years, a Habsburg was no longer at the head of the Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation." 11
Britain was concerned that the succession of Charles Albert would ultimately place the entire Empire in the hands of France. This posed a threat not only to the European balance of power but also to the crucial 'barrier' in the Low Countries, which was vital for the security of both Britain and the United Provinces. In response, British troops were dispatched to Germany and the Low Countries in 1742, and a Dutch corps joined them in 1743. Meanwhile, the Royal Navy was deployed to the Mediterranean to deter Spain. In August 1742, a British squadron appeared before Don Carlos's palace in Naples, forcing him to withdraw his troops from northern Italy or risk the destruction of his capital. Maria Theresa mobilized a large army, and in January 1742, Piedmont joined the Austrian side in northern Italy. A year later, an Anglo-imperial army defeated the French at the Battle of Dettingen. The Habsburg monarchy successfully withstood the challenge. 12
In 1745, an alliance was formed among Austria, Saxony, England, and the Netherlands against Prussia. At the same time, the French and Bavarians captured Munich. 13
In 1746, a naval war broke out between France and England, while a concurrent conflict involving Spain, France, and Austria unfolded in Italy. 14
In 1755, Maria Theresa, who had previously concluded a defensive alliance with Elizabeth, Empress of Russia, induced England to conclude a new subsidy treaty with Russia. In June of the same year, hostilities broke out between England and France in North America, without any declaration of war. Dreading a French attack upon Hanover, George II of England, in January 1756, concluded a treaty of neutrality with Frederick at Westminster, causing a rupture between England and Russia. 15
In June 1756, war once again erupted between France and England in Europe. 16
On July 26, 1757, the French achieved a victory over the British at Hastenbeck, which led to the surrender of the British army. The French then occupied Hanover, despite the British government's rejection of the treaty. 17
In 1759, "the French resumed offensive" in the west and, under the Duke of Broglie, defeated Ferdinand of Brunswick at Bergen, near Frankfurt.18
In 1760, the city of Montreal fell, prompting Spain to join the war on France's side in 1762. This led to a series of colonial setbacks. British expeditionary forces swiftly captured both Manila and Havana. Meanwhile, Frederick the Great of Prussia experienced a series of significant defeats against the Habsburgs, with the Austrians briefly occupying Berlin in October 1760. 19
In 1763, the Anglo-Bourbon colonial war ended with the Treaty of Paris, while the German war concluded with the Treaty of Hubertusburg. As a result, Prussia retained Silesia without providing any compensation to Austria for its loss. Overseas, France ceded Canada and Saint Vincent to Britain. Spain regained Havana and Manila but surrendered Florida to Britain. In exchange, Spain received Louisiana from France, a territory much larger than the present-day state of the same name. As Brendan Simms notes, "the global balance now shifted decisively in favor of Britain…" 20
However, Britain also gained vulnerabilities. It was now responsible for a sprawling territorial empire, with an even more vulnerable perimeter line. Additionally, Britain was heavily in debt as a result of the Seven Years' War. 21 The East India Company, which London had hoped would finance its imperial defense, went bankrupt in 1772. 22
In 1774, the Falkland Islands were evacuated to save money and appease Spain.23
In 1775, the colonists entered into conflict with the British government over constitutional and strategic differences arising from British foreign policy. British and patriot forces soon clashed at Lexington.24
Brendan Simms explains that the American Declaration of Independence, dated July 4, 1776, did not establish a unitary state. It explicitly referred to the united "free and independent states" in the plural. However, to effectively wage war against Britain, these states needed to adopt certain characteristics of a unified nation. In November 1777, Congress approved the Articles of Confederation.25
Between 1778 and 1780, the British state launched its most extensive mobilization program so far, resulting in a 50 percent increase in the Royal Navy's fleet of ships of the line.26
In 1783, the Treaty of Paris ended the American War. Britain was compelled to recognize the thirteen colonies as independent states. While Britain retained control of Gibraltar, Florida, and Minorca were ceded to Spain. France regained Louisiana.27
France resumed its military offensives under the leadership of Napoleon Bonaparte. Napoleon took the initiative across multiple fronts. In January 1798, after occupying Switzerland, he sent an unsuccessful expedition to Ireland to support a rebellion by the United Irishmen against British rule. Around the same time, Napoleon landed in Egypt, which led to war with the Ottoman Empire. The following year, he invaded Palestine.28
France intensified its pressure on British shipping and sugar colonies, which financed a significant portion of the British war effort. Napoleon was also seeking ways to regain France's overseas territories. The renewal of the French campaign under Napoleon elicited an immediate reaction from the European great powers. In Vienna, Thugut observed the assaults on Switzerland and the Ottoman Empire with concern, but his primary concern was Germany. The renewal of the French campaign under Napoleon elicited an immediate reaction from the European great powers. In Vienna, Thugut observed the assaults on Switzerland and the Ottoman Empire with considerable concern, but his primary concern was Germany.29
Between 1798 and 1799, Austro-Russian troops launched military operations against French forces in southern Germany and northern Italy, with financial support from Britain. Furthermore, an Anglo-Russian contingent successfully landed in Holland, thereby initiating the War of the Second Coalition.30
The Napoleonic challenge was also felt on the other side of the Atlantic. The United States was observing events with increasing concern. News that France was seeking to buy Florida and take control of the entire Spanish Louisiana territory - an action solidified by the Treaty of San Ildefonso in October 1800 - provoked alarm in Washington. 31
The Second Coalition began to disintegrate. Prussia refused to participate, and Austria and Russia quarreled over the management of military operations in Germany and Italy. In response, the Tsar established the Second League of Armed Neutrality, comprising Russia, Prussia, Sweden, and Denmark, to counter Britain's unilateral maritime policies. 32
By 1801, the exhausted Austrians reached a peace agreement with Napoleon in Luneville. The British ultimately followed suit with a peace treaty at Amiens in late March 1802. 33
In December 1804, Napoleon proclaimed himself Emperor of France and crowned himself with Charlemagne's crown in Paris. In response, the Habsburgs announced their imperial crown of Austria. This led to the emergence of four potential empires competing for influence in Central Europe: the French Empire, the Russian Empire, the Austrian Empire, and the Holy Roman Empire. 34
In 1804-1805, a new coalition was formed against Napoleon, consisting of Austria, Russia, and Britain. 35
In October 1805, following the devastating naval defeat at Trafalgar, Napoleon sought to cripple Britain economically through the 'Continental System,' which isolated Britain from mainland Europe. In response, Britain issued Orders in Council in January 1807, prohibiting neutral nations from trading with French ports. This measure had a severe impact on commerce in North and South America. Later, in October 1807, Napoleon coerced Spain into allowing French troops to cross its territory in order to invade Portugal, thereby undermining Britain's last remaining ally in Europe. A complete French invasion of Spain occurred in March 1808, triggered by a palace coup against the minister supported by the French. 36
In early September 1813, Austria joined Prussia and Russia at Teplitz to agree on the dissolution of the Confederation of the Rhine, the complete independence of the intermediary states between Austria and Prussia, and the repatriation of Poland. As Brendan Simms notes, "the forces now arrayed against Napoleon were formidable: not only the Russian army which had defeated him in 1812, but the Austrians, Prussians and virtually the whole of Germany, now almost entirely united for military purposes for the first time in its history... Eventually, after three days of epic struggle, Napoleon was utterly defeated. The great battle for supremacy in central Europe was over. It was now only a matter of time before Napoleon was defeated in France. A new European order was about to be born." 37
After Napoleon lost control of Germany following the Battle of Leipzig in October 1813, his position in Europe rapidly deteriorated. The allied armies advanced relentlessly westward into France, overwhelming the French forces. Napoleon abdicated during the Treaty of Fontainebleau in mid-April 1814 and was exiled to the Mediterranean island of Elba. Subsequently, the Bourbon monarchy was restored under Louis XVIII. According to the First Treaty of Paris, France was allowed to retain the territory it had acquired from the Revolution up to the outbreak of the Revolutionary Wars in 1792, particularly Savoy. 38
Following this, Europe was thrown into turmoil by Napoleon's return from exile on the island of Elba. He managed to evade his guards and was welcomed back by a French populace that had quickly grown disenchanted with the Bourbons and sought to reclaim their former glory. After experiencing some initial victories, Napoleon was ultimately defeated at the Battle of Waterloo in June 1815 by a coalition of allied armies. Subsequently, he was exiled once more, this time to St. Helena, from which he did not return. 39
If, in the previous case, Great Britain v. France between the late 17th and early 18th centuries, France was the ruling power and Great Britain the rising one, now, between the 18th and 19th centuries, the roles had reversed.
Britain had become a ruling power at the beginning of the 18th century, while revolutionary and Napoleonic France was reemerging to reclaim its position as a ruling power. To reclaim its position, France rebuilt its navy, revitalized its economy, and expanded its colonial ambitions. These efforts reignited a global contest with Britain, with repeated confrontations across Europe, the Americas, and Asia. This geopolitical rivalry culminated in the Seven Years' War, which decisively tipped the balance in favor of the United Kingdom.
Despite renewed efforts under Napoleon, France's bid for dominance ultimately failed. Britain not only outlasted its rival but also emerged as the principal architect of the postwar European continent.
Endnotes
1. Brendan Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 80.
2. Ibid., 80-82.
3. Ibid., 88.
4. Ibid., 88-89.
5. Ibid., 89.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid.
8. This decree, established by Holy Roman Emperor Charles VI in 1713, ensured that his daughter, Maria Theresa, would inherit the Habsburg hereditary lands, despite being a woman. Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, 88.
9. Ibid., 97.
10. William L. Langer, Germany, 1756 A.D.-1761 A.D., in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 465.
11. Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, 97.
12. Ibid., 97-98.
13. Langer, Germany, 1756 A.D.-1761 A.D., 466.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid., 467.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, 111.
20. Ibid.
21. Ibid., 115.
22. Ibid., 120.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid., 121.
25. Ibid., 122.
26. Ibid., 123.
27. Ibid., 124.
28. Brendan Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 144.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid., 145.
31. Ibid., 145-146.
32. Ibid., 146.
33. Ibid.
34. Ibid., 148.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid., 151.
37. Ibid., 158.
38. Brendan Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 160-161.
39. Ibid., 161.
IX. The Russian Empire v. France & the UK
Period – The mid-19th century
Ruling Power – France & the UK
Rising Power – The Russian Empire
Domain – Transcontinental dominance
Outcome – War
"In 1709, Peter the Great's unexpected but decisive victory over Charles XII at Poltava in the Ukraine signalled the rise of a new power centre in the east which was to have a fundamental impact on the balance across the continent." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy from 1453 to the Present, 2013, 82.
"By the middle of the century, the winners and losers were clear... The great beneficiaries were the rising powers of the east: Prussia, which had walked off the Silesia, and Russia, which had begun a seemingly unstoppable advance westwards..." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy from 1453 to the Present, 2013, 103.
Brendan Simms argues that in the mid-1750s, Europe experienced the 'Diplomatic Revolution,' where the two main rivals, Bourbon France and Habsburg Austria, later joined by Russia, allied against Prussia and Great Britain. The Seven Years' War, which took place from 1756 to 1763, marked a pivotal moment in European history. This conflict affirmed Prussia's ascendancy as a great power, secured Britain's colonial dominance, and catalyzed a prominent era of Russian expansionism. The consequences of this expansion would profoundly reshape the political dynamics of Eastern and Central Europe in the subsequent decades.1
Simms also highlights a growing concern about the rise of Russian power, which had intervened decisively against France in Germany on two recent occasions. 2
In the case of Russia, it is essential to differentiate between its historical timeline of ascent as a ruling power and the period when it was already established as such. This distinction is crucial for reducing the likelihood of misrepresenting a ruling power versus a rising power scenario.
Between 1654 and 1667, following the war with Poland, Russia's territorial gains brought it into contact with the Turks in the Balkans. By the Treaty of Andrussovo, signed on January 20, 1667, Russia acquired the Smolensk region and eastern Ukraine, including Kyiv. 3
Between 1676 and 1682, during the reign of Theodore III, Russia fought the first war against the Ottoman Turks. In 1681, the parties signed the Treaty of Radzin, under which the Turks relinquished most of the Turkish Ukraine to Russia. 4
Peter I (the Great), who ruled from 1689 to 1725, established strong ties with members of foreign colonies in Moscow and prepared for military and naval campaigns. 5
In 1689, Russian and Chinese interests clashed as Russian pioneers expanded into the Amur region. To resolve this issue, both parties signed the Treaty of Nerchinsk that same year. This treaty required the Russians to withdraw from the territory they had occupied, marking the first bilateral agreement between Russia and China. 6
In 1695, Peter I began expeditions against Azov. After an initial unsuccessful land expedition, the second attempt, bolstered by a naval force, led to the capture of the stronghold in July 1696. Following this victory, Peter embarked on a journey to Europe in 1697, becoming the first Russian sovereign to travel abroad. As William Langer suggests, Peter's travels in France, England, and Holland reinforced his determination to "westernize" Russia. 7
After the Treaty of Karlowitz was signed in 1699, ending the Great Turkish War, peace was soon established between the Ottoman Empire and Russia in 1700, allowing Russia to retain Azov. 8
Between 1700 and 1721, the Great Northern War unfolded, encompassing several phases of conflict. On November 30, 1700, Peter the Great secured a victory over Charles XII of Sweden at the Battle of Narva. While Charles was occupied with campaigns in Poland, this provided Peter with the opportunity to reorganize his army along European lines and establish a fleet in the Baltic Sea. 9
In 1709, a pivotal encounter took place between Peter I and Charles XII during the Battle of Poltava. Charles XII, allied with the Cossack hetman Ivan Mazepa, initially advanced toward Moscow but later veered south. At Poltava, Peter won a decisive victory that not only dismantled Charles's power but also signaled the rise of Russia as the dominant force in northern Europe, supplanting Sweden. 10
Between 1710 and 1711, a war broke out between Russia and Turkey due to pressure from Charles XII and France on Russia. By the Treaty of Pruth, signed on July 21, 1711, Peter was compelled to return Azov to the Turks. 11
On August 30, 1721, Russia and Sweden signed the Treaty of Nystadt, which concluded the Northern War. As a result of this agreement, Russia acquired Livonia, Estonia, Ingermanland, part of Karelia, and several Baltic islands. This achievement fulfilled Peter's goal of securing a "window on the Baltic," which would facilitate connections with the West. As William Langer notes, "Russia now definitely took her place as a European power." 12
Peter I died in 1725. Following his death, the officers of the palace guard elevated his second wife, Catherine I, to the throne. She reigned briefly until 1727. 13
Between 1733 and 1735, the War of the Polish Succession occurred. Due to Poland's internal weakness during this period, Russia was able to solidify its control over Polish affairs and lay the groundwork for the eventual partitions of Poland. 14
As a consequence of Russian actions in Poland, a conflict erupted between the Ottoman Empire and Russia, with Russia allied to Austria. The Russians successfully recaptured Azov. However, French mediation curtailed the potential gains Russia could have achieved. Under the Treaty of Belgrade, signed on September 18, 1739, Russia retained Azov but was required to dismantle its fortifications and refrain from building a fleet on the Black Sea. 15
In 1741, Elizabeth, the youngest daughter of Peter the Great, ascended to the throne and reigned until 1762. Her reign is often regarded as a golden age for the aristocracy. During this period, significant advancements in learning and science took place. Foreign policy focused on forming alliances with Austria and England against Prussia and France. Russia's primary goals continued to be territorial expansion at the expense of Sweden, dominance over Poland, and conquests against the Ottoman Empire. 16
Between 1741 and 1743, during the war with Sweden, the Swedes were compelled to cede additional territory in Finland to Russia. 17
In 1746, Russia entered the War of the Austrian Succession through a treaty with Austria, in which, as Langer posits, it played a relatively minor role. However, Russia played a significant role in the Seven Years' War (1756-1763), as mentioned in the first paragraph of this case study. 18
In 1758, they battled Frederick the Great of Prussia at Zorndorf, followed by another defeat in 1759 at Kunersdorf. 19 Brendan Simms notes that the Russians were "the most existential threat" to Prussia during this period. 20
In February 1762, Tsarina Elizabeth passed away, and Peter III ascended to the throne. This change in leadership led to a shift in relations between Prussia and Russia. In May of that year, Peter III decided to abandon his Austro-French allies. By June, he had allied with Frederick of Prussia. In July 1762, Peter III was deposed and murdered, and his wife Catherine succeeded him. 21
Catherine II, also known as Catherine the Great, ruled Russia from 1762 to 1796, continuing the reforms initiated by Peter the Great. Between 1766 and 1768, she intervened in Poland's affairs, which was followed by a war with the Ottoman Empire that lasted from 1768 to 1772. During this conflict, Russia achieved significant victories against the Turks. However, the Russian military efforts were hampered by the first partition of Poland on August 5, 1772. 22
Additionally, from 1773 to 1775, Russia faced serious internal challenges, including a major uprising by peasants and Cossacks in southeastern Russia, which was suppressed only with great difficulty. The war with the Turks concluded on July 21, 1774, with the signing of the Treaty of Kuchuk-Kainarji. As a result of the treaty, Russia gained control of Kinburn, Yenikale, and Kertch in Crimea and secured the right for commercial ships to navigate freely in Turkish waters. The Crimean Tatars were recognized as "independent," and Russia was granted significant rights to intervene in Moldavia and Wallachia, as well as to protect Christians within the Ottoman Empire.23
In 1780, during the American War of Independence, Russia proposed the concept of armed neutrality at sea as a way to protect commerce. Denmark, Sweden, Prussia, Austria, and Portugal backed this idea. France and Spain acknowledged the principle; however, England thwarted Holland's participation in the league by declaring war on the Dutch. 24
In the same year, 1780, an Austro-Russian treaty was signed between Catherine the Great of Russia and Joseph II of Austria—the agreement aimed to weaken the Ottoman Empire and divide the Balkans between their two countries. Three years later, in 1783, Catherine annexed the Crimea, claiming it was necessary to restore order in the region. 25
Between 1787 and 1792, a conflict emerged between Russia and the Ottoman Empire, with Austria also involved in the war. While the Russians made advancements toward the Danube, they were sidetracked by Sweden's invasion of Finland and their concurrent war with Sweden, which lasted from 1788 to 1790. The Russo-Turkish war concluded in 1792 with the Treaty of Jassy, which granted Russia control of Oczakov and established the Dniestr River as its boundary. 26
In 1793, the second partition of Poland occurred, dividing the territory between Russia and Prussia. This was followed by the third partition in 1795, which allowed Russia to expand deeper into central Europe and become a more significant player in European affairs. Catherine the Great was succeeded by her son, Paul I. 27
From 1799 to 1801, Russia took part in the Second Coalition war against France. In 1801, Tsar Paul was assassinated, and his son, Alexander I, succeeded him, ruling until 1825. 28
As mentioned in case VII, during 1804-1805, the Third Coalition was formed, consisting of Austria, Russia, and Britain, to oppose Napoleon. 29
In 1806, Napoleon initiated a war against Prussia and Russia that lasted until 1807. On October 14, at the battles of Jena and Auerstadt, the main Prussian armies were decisively defeated by the French, causing them to disintegrate quickly. Following this defeat, Napoleon occupied Berlin on October 27. 30
On November 21, he proclaimed a blockade of Great Britain, effectively closing the continent to British trade. Subsequently, the French encouraged the Turks to abandon their alliance with England and Russia. The deposition of the pro-Russian governors of Moldavia and Wallachia in 1806 led to a war between Russia and the Ottoman Empire, lasting until 1812.31
In 1807, France captured most of the Hanseatic towns along with Breslau and many other fortresses in Silesia. The Russians advanced to aid the Prussians, and the combined army faced off against the French at the Battle of Eylau on February 7-8. On February 17, a British squadron successfully forced the passage of the Dardanelles and reached Constantinople. However, the British were compelled to retreat, losing two ships, because the Turks had begun preparations to defeat them.32
On June 14 (1807), during the battle of Friedland, the French forces clashed with the Russians. The French emerged victorious, causing the Russians to retreat. From July 7 to 9, the two parties signed the treaties of Tilsit. As part of the agreement, Russia recognized the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, which was formed from Polish territory acquired by Prussia during the partitions of Poland. Additionally, Danzig was restored as a free city, and a part of New East Prussia (Białystok) was ceded to Russia.33
Furthermore, Russia acknowledged Joseph Bonaparte as King of Naples, Louis Bonaparte as King of Holland, and Jerome Bonaparte as King of Westphalia, which was a new kingdom yet to be established. Russia also recognized the Confederation of the Rhine and accepted Napoleon's mediation in negotiating peace with the Turks. In a secret article, Tsar Alexander agreed to form an alliance with France against England, should England refuse to accept the proposed peace. 34
In June 1812, the United States declared war to resolve the ongoing struggle for hemispheric dominance with Britain. During the same month, Napoleon's army crossed the Niemen River into Russia, aiming to settle the contest for control over Central Europe. Initially, the campaign was successful; by the beginning of winter, the Russian army had suffered a significant defeat at Borodino, and Moscow was occupied. However, the harsh Russian winter forced Napoleon to retreat, and by the end of the year, his severely weakened army had been entirely driven out of Russian territory. 35
In February 1813, Russia and Prussia concluded a new treaty at Kalisch, which effectively reconstituted Prussia as a great power by promising to restore its borders to those of 1806. The following month, in June, Britain pledged to bolster the Russo-Prussian war effort by providing increased subsidies. In September of that same year, Austria joined Prussia and Russia in Teplitz to agree on the dissolution of the Confederation of the Rhine. This resulted in the complete independence of the intermediary states between Austria and Prussia, as well as the repartition of Poland. 36
In mid-October 1813, at the Battle of Leipzig, Napoleon was decisively defeated by the combined forces of Prussia, Russia, the Habsburg Empire, and their German allies. 37
Between 1814 and 1815, the Congress of Vienna was held, bringing together representatives from European states. The main decisions were shaped by the four major allied powers: Austria, Britain, Prussia, and Russia. In June 1815, the Act of the Congress of Vienna was signed, resulting in significant changes across Europe. The Austrian and Prussian monarchies were restored, and the Kingdom of the Netherlands was established, which included the former Republic of Holland and the Austrian Netherlands (now Belgium). Additionally, the German Confederation was formed, and the Kingdom of Poland was established, with most of the former Grand Duchy of Warsaw being ceded to Russia, which became a Polish kingdom under Russian rule. England retained control of Malta, Heligoland, and some of the French and Dutch colonies. Furthermore, Sweden retained Norway, and Switzerland was re-established as an independent confederation comprising 22 cantons. 38
On November 20, 1815, the Second Peace Agreement of Paris was established, which restricted France to its boundaries as they were in 1790. Additionally, France was required to pay 700 million francs to cover the war's expenses. On the same day, the Quadruple Alliance was renewed among England, Austria, Prussia, and Russia. The members of this alliance pledged to provide 60,000 troops each in the event of any attempts to violate the Treaty of Paris. 39
In February 1825, frustrated by the ongoing resistance of the Greeks, the Sultan called upon his vassal, Mehmet Ali, to suppress the uprising. Soon after, his army began to advance relentlessly and violently through Greece. In April 1826, the Tsar of Russia signed the Convention of St. Petersburg with Great Britain, in which both parties agreed to mediate in Greece and pledged to forgo any commercial or territorial gains. Six months later, at the Convention of Akkerman, Britain, France, and Russia further agreed that Greece should become a semi-autonomous vassal state of the Ottoman Empire. As Brendan Simms posits, "both Paris and London hoped that a strong Greece, far from being an agent of tsarist expansionism, would actually function as a barrier to St Petersburg..." 40
In October 1827, the Anglo-French naval force destroyed the combined Ottoman and Egyptian fleet at the Battle of Navarino. Later that year, Sultan Mahmud II aimed to preemptively address the growing coalition against him by declaring a jihad against Russia. By September 1829, the Ottomans were compelled to accept the terms of the Treaty of Adrianople. This treaty resulted in Greece gaining independence, while Wallachia and Moldavia were granted autonomy. Additionally, Russia achieved only modest territorial gains in the Caucasus. 41
In late 1831, Mehmet Ali, frustrated by his failed intervention in Greece and the refusal to grant him Syria as compensation, ultimately severed ties with his overlord and advanced toward Constantinople. In December 1832, he dealt a significant defeat to the Turkish army at the Battle of Konya. Tsar Nicholas began to fear that Mehmet might overrun all of Turkey and incite the Crimean Tatars to launch an Islamic crusade against Russia. Meanwhile, the Habsburgs issued an ultimatum to the Russians, demanding their withdrawal from Moldavia and Wallachia. 42
In a state of desperation, the Sultan sought assistance from Russia. In February 1833, to the dismay of Western powers, Russian troops landed on the shores of the Bosphorus, and the Russian fleet docked in Constantinople. On July 8, 1833, a new treaty was signed at Unkiar Skelessi between Turkey and Russia. Under this treaty, for eight years, both nations would be mutually obligated to defend each other's territories in the event of external aggression. Additionally, a separate clause relieved Turkey from the duty of providing naval and military aid to Russia during wartime, as long as Turkey agreed to close the Dardanelles to armed vessels, prohibiting any foreign ships from entering under any pretext. 43
In the meantime, the French and British governments were extending their protective support to the Spanish queen, just as they had for the Portuguese. 44
In May 1838, Mehmet Ali informed the consuls in Alexandria of his intention to declare independence. Sultan Mahmud was eager to settle the longstanding conflict with Mehmet, and it was in April 1839 that Mehmet took the initiative to open hostilities. By the end of the year, Mehmet Ali appeared to be in a strong position to shape the future of the Ottoman Empire as he desired. 45
On July 15, 1840, representatives of the four eastern powers—Russia, Prussia, Austria, and Britain - signed a Quadruple Agreement, which compelled Mehmet Ali to retire to his Egyptian dominions. 46
In 1844, the Tsar visited England to discuss peace with the representatives of Turkey, alongside Aberden. He assured them that he would do everything in his power to maintain the status quo. He urged them to consider the importance of an Anglo-Russian understanding regarding the policy to be followed if peace proved impossible. Additionally, he emphasized that there was no reason for the hostility that had existed between the two countries in the past. 47
In 1849, the Russians intervened in Hungary to help restore Habsburg power in Budapest. As Brendan Simms explains, "coming after Russian military intervention in Hungary and diplomatic intervention in Germany in 1848-9, the occupation of the principalities seemed to signal the tsar's intent not merely to partition the Ottoman Empire but to dominate Europe as a whole." 48
In February 1853, the Russian foreign minister delivered an ultimatum demanding that the Sultan grant the Tsar sovereignty over the Orthodox populations in the Ottoman Empire. Five months later, Russian troops occupied the Danubian principalities, provoking the Sultan to declare war.49
In November of the same year, the Tsar demanded the independence of the Danubian principalities, Serbia, Bosnia, and Bulgaria, along with an expanded Greece. A call for a general Christian uprising against Ottoman rule accompanied this demand. In the same month, the Russian navy destroyed an Ottoman squadron at Sinope on the Black Sea. 50
Russia ignored a Franco-British ultimatum, which demanded that Russia withdraw from Moldavia and Wallachia. Instead, in March 1854, Russian troops crossed the Danube and advanced southward. 51
Britain and France declared war on Russia and deployed a substantial expeditionary force to attack the Tsar from the south in Crimea. Later, Piedmont joined France and Britain in their efforts against Russia. In September 1855, France and Britain captured Sevastopol, delivering a humiliating defeat to the Tsar. However, the truly decisive blow was dealt in Germany. Vienna was able to persuade the Prussians, although neutral, to support their demand that the Diet commit to defending Austria along the Danube. This meant that the Tsar would potentially face the combined power of Germany on his western front.52
In March 1855, Tsar Nicholas I passed away. 53
In December 1855, Austria, France, and Britain issued an ultimatum to the new Tsar, Alexander II, demanding an end to hostilities or facing combined military action against him. Alexander II sought peace, leading to the signing of the Treaty of Paris in 1856. This treaty dealt a significant blow to Russia's ambitions. The Tsar was compelled not only to abandon his plans to partition the Ottoman Empire and co-opt the Balkan Christians, but he was also prohibited from maintaining ships or arsenals in the Black Sea. Furthermore, the preamble of the treaty asserted that the independence and integrity of Turkey were essential to the peace of Europe. According to Simms, the Ottoman Empire was invited to join the international state system on equal terms, as its stability and strength were deemed vital for maintaining international peace. 54
The trajectory of Russia from a rising to a ruling power unfolded in two distinct but interconnected phases. In the first phase, spanning from the mid-17th to the mid-18th century, Russia gradually expanded its territory, reformed its institutions, and increased its military capabilities. This period culminated in Russia's emergence as an established European power, particularly following its victory in the Great Northern War and the Treaty of Nystadt in 1721.
By the mid-18th century, as William Langer observed, "Russia now definitely took her place as a European power." However, while Russia had secured a strong presence on the continent, it still lagged behind Britain and France in terms of global maritime influence and colonial holdings. Russia was a ruling power in Eastern and Northern Europe, but not yet a global one. The Crimean War (1853–1856) exposed the limitations of Russia's ability to project power beyond its continental sphere. It exposed the gap between Russia's ambitions and its military and logistical capabilities. Despite having become a dominant force in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia remained constrained by the naval and economic superiority of Britain and France.
Endnotes
1. Brendan Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 104.
2. Ibid., 105.
3. William L. Langer, Russia, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 478.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid., 479.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid., 481.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, 109.
20. Ibid., 111.
21. Ibid.
22. Langer, Russia, 481.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid., 482.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
27. Ibid.
28. Ibid.
29. Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, 148.
30. William L. Langer, The War of The Third Coalition, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press), 592.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid., 592-593.
33. Ibid., 593.
34. Ibid.
35. Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, 156-157.
36. Ibid., 157-158.
37. Ibid., 158.
38. William L. Langer, The Peace Settlements, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press: Boston, 601-602.
39. Ibid., 603.
40. Brendan Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 173.
41.Ibid.
42. Ibid., 174.
43. Gordon Craig, The System of Alliances and the Balance of Power, in The New Cambridge Modern History, Vol. X. The Zenith of European Power: 1830-70, ed. J.P.T Bury (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1960), 252.
44. Ibd., 253.
45. Ibid., 254-255.
46. Ibid., 257.
47. Ibid., 259-260.
48. Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, 194.
49. Ibid., 196.
50. Ibid.
51. Ibid.
52. Ibid., 196-197.
53. Ibid., 197.
54. Ibid.
X. Prussia v. the Habsburgs & France
Period – The mid-18th century
Ruling Power – The Austrian Habsburgs & France
Rising Power – Prussia
Domain – Regional dominance
Outcome - War
"During this century and a half of international rivalry between Louis XIV's assumption of full authority in France... and Napoleon Bonaparte's surrender after Waterloo... certain leading nations of the previous period... fell back into the second rank... The Austrian Habsburgs, by various territorial and structural adjustments in their hereditary lands, managed to remain in the first order; and in the north of Germany, Branderburg-Prussia pulled itself up to that status from unpromising beginnings." - Paul Kennedy in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1988, 73-74.
"The Habsburgs were also worried about a new threat brewing in Germany. They had raised Prussia to the status of a kingdom in order to contain France, but, within a few years, Vienna began to have second thoughts. The ambitions of the new king were soon apparent..." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 78.
Paul Kennedy, while discussing Sweden's military capabilities in the middle of the17th century, notes, "Sweden was to remain a considerable power, even after 1648, but only at the regional level. Indeed, under Charles X (1654-1660) and Charles XI (1660-1697), it was arguably at its height in the Baltic arena, where it successively checked the Danes and held its own against Poland, Russia, and the rising power of Prussia." 1 Additionally, Kennedy suggests: "... Sweden had little chance... of maintaining the military predominance that it had briefly held under Gustavus Adolphus. In the coming decades, in fact, it would have its work cut out merely seeking to arrest the advances of Prussia in the south and Russia in the east." 2 This means that Prussia was already on the rise by the mid-17th century.
In 1649, the Great Elector of Brandenburg-Prussia argued that the state's vulnerable geographic position - situated between the Poles, the Swedes, and the Holy Roman Emperor - was essential to establishing a strong domestic defense structure. However, his representative assemblies rejected his request for funding to implement his military plans against the Swedes.3
In 1653, facing the increasing threat from Sweden, the Great Elector sought a system of state funding that would enable him to pursue a defensive policy to protect his position. The estates ultimately recognized the necessity of this request and agreed to relinquish their right to approve taxation. Two years later, the Great Elector founded the General War Commissariat to more effectively mobilize resources for war. As Brendan Simms notes, "Within two decades, he had increased his army tenfold." 4
In the 1660s and 1670s, a widespread debate emerged about how to counter the rising power of France effectively. Louis XIV's advances had significantly enhanced French border security. However, as Simms explains, "the chief threat came from the Austrians to the east, supported by the Dutch and, perhaps, the Prussians. It had been the German powers, Austria and Prussia, whose intervention had saved the Union Provinces in the 1670s." 5
In August 1685, the Great Elector formed an anti-French alliance with the Dutch. Brendan Simms argues that the Prussians had learned a harsh lesson in the east: although they could defeat the Swedes in battle, their powerful French sponsor could easily revive Swedish power at the negotiating table. He explains that if Prussia wanted to secure Eastern Pomerania, it would need to become a major player on the European stage or, at the very least, take part in the effort to contain France. 6
In July 1685, Sweden, Spain, the Dutch Republic, the Holy Roman Emperor, Brandenburg-Prussia, and numerous other German princes united to form the League of Augsburg, later known as the Grand Alliance, to confront France. 7
From 1688 to 1697, the Nine Years' War raged between Louis and much of central and western Europe, fought mainly in Flanders, the Rhineland-Palatinate, and northern Italy. 8
In the late 1700s, the Prussians obtained a promise from Vienna to recognize Elector Frederick of Brandenburg as 'King in Prussia' in exchange for his support against France. Frederick was crowned a year later. 9
Brendan Simms explains that the Habsburgs elevated Prussia to the status of a kingdom to help contain France. Nevertheless, within a few years, the Habsburgs became aware of the ambitions of the newly appointed king. He notes that "the ambitions of the new king were soon apparent: in 1702, Frederick I made an unsuccessful bid to succeed William as Stadholder of the United Provinces. A year later, the Prussians tried to assert their claims to the nearby south German territories of Ansbach and Bayreuth, and were blocked by the Austrian-dominated Aulic Council." 10
In May 1705, in his first Political Testament, King Frederick urged his successors to exercise "extreme caution" regarding engagement in warfare. He emphasized that the new kingdom was surrounded by more powerful and mostly hostile nations that were jealous of Prussia's successes.11
In 1706, the chief minister of Austria remarked that he feared the power of the King of Prussia more than that of France, which was indeed more powerful. He noted, 'fears the power of the King of Prussia more than that of France, which is greater... the King of France only gnaws at the edges of those countries that border on it, but... the King of Prussia proceeds directly to the heart." 12
In April 1713, peace was established between the Grand Alliance and France following the signing of the Treaty of Utrecht. The emperor joined this peace by the Treaty of Rastatt in March 1714.13
In 1721, the Treaty of Nystad, which marked the end of the Great Northern War, proved to be a catastrophe for Sweden. Sweden lost its entire eastern front in the Baltic region, including Livonia, Estonia, and the Finnish province of Karelia. Additionally, Sweden surrendered Bremen and Werden in Germany to Hanover, although it retained control of Western Pomerania. As Brendan Simms notes, this was a catastrophe for Sweden. However, he adds that Sweden remained relatively insulated and could still theoretically influence affairs in Germany. Nevertheless, Sweden had ceased to be a great power and lost much of its influence in the Holy Roman Empire. The Great Northern War also weakened Poland's position.14
In February 1720, Russia and Prussia concluded an alliance, committing themselves to guaranteeing the Polish constitution, and opposing any application of the hereditary principle to the crown. 15
In 1725, Louis XV of France married Maria Leszczynska, the daughter of the former King of Poland. An Austro-Spanish alliance was formed in May of the same year. 16
In September 1725, Britain, France, Prussia, and the Dutch Republic signed the Treaty of Hanover in response to the Treaty of Vienna, which formed the Austro-Spanish Alliance. The Treaty of Hanover aimed to contain the combined forces of Austria and Spain, 17 marking Prussia's first official challenge to Austria.
Between 1733 and 1738, the War of the Polish Succession occurred after the death of King Augustus II of Poland. Two primary claimants emerged for the throne: Stanisław Leszczyński, supported by France, Spain, and Sardinia; and Augustus III of Saxony, who received backing from Austria and Russia. The war initially took place in Italy, where the Austrians lost control of everything except Milan.18
In November 1738, the Treaty of Vienna was signed. This treaty involved Stanislas Leszczynski reuniting the Polish throne. Austria ceded Naples, Sicily, the island of Elba, and the Stati degli Presidi to Spain in exchange for the territories of Parma and Piacenza. Additionally, France guaranteed the Pragmatic Sanction.19
In May 1740, Frederick William I of Prussia died, and Frederick II (the Great) reigned (1740-1786). In October of the same year, Charles VI passed away, marking the extinction of the male line of the Habsburgs. 20
Between 1740 and 1748, the War of the Austrian Succession occurred, involving several claimants to the Austrian inheritance. The first was Charles Albert, Elector of Bavaria, who had never recognized the Pragmatic Sanction. The second claimant was Philip V, King of Spain, who based his claim on a treaty between Charles V and his brother, which stipulated that their line should be considered extinct. The third claimant was Augustus III of Saxony, who was married to the eldest daughter of Joseph I.21 France supported the claims of the Bavarian elector and allied with Frederick the Great against Maria Theresa, which led to France becoming involved in a conflict with England. 22
Brendan Simms notes that the new King of Prussia, Frederick II, was determined to establish himself as a great commander and statesman on the European stage. "His first priority was to address the Achilles heel of the monarchy: its geographic fragmentation. ‘The worst thing,' he later remarked in his History of my own times, 'was the irregular shape of the state. Narrow and dispersed provinces stretched from Kurland [in the east] to Brabant [in the west]. As a result of this fragmentation (Zerrisssenheit), the state had many neighbours but no inner strength and was exposed to far more enemies than if it had been rounded off more effectively.' It was clear to Frederick that simply working within the system of the Holy Roman Empire, as his predecessors had done, would only affect incremental improvements in Prussia's position. In this context, the disputed Austrian succession represented both a threat and an opportunity. Prussia had a vague claim to the rich and populous Habsburg province of Silesia, which abutted his core lands of Brandenburg. On the other hand, there was a real danger that one of the other claimants to the Austrian succession, the Elector-King of Poland-Saxony, would wind up with Silesia as compensation. The resulting encirclement of Prussia was something that Frederick wished to prevent at all costs." 23
In December 1740, Frederick invaded Silesia without warning and quickly occupied most of the province. Simms posits that he took advantage of the situation brilliantly. Austria's traditional ally, Britain, was occupied with its costly colonial war against Spain. Meanwhile, Prussia's supporter, Russia, was dealing with a succession struggle following the death of Tsarina Anne in November 1740. Additionally, the Holy Roman Empire was preparing to decide who should succeed Charles Albert, Elector of Bavaria. These developments greatly facilitated Frederick's invasion. However, this act also unleashed destructive forces that had been building within the Empire and across Europe for the previous decade.24
In April 1741, the Prussians achieved victory at Mollwitz. In May of the same year, the secret Alliance of Nymphenburg was established by France, Bavaria, and Spain, and later joined by Saxony and, finally, Prussia. This alliance was formed against Austria. The combined French and Bavarian army invaded Austria and Bohemia, capturing Prague with the help of the Saxons. Charles Albert declared himself the Archduke of Linz, while Frederick II received homage in Silesia. Ultimately, Charles Albert was elected Emperor in Frankfurt.25
In May 1742, Frederick secured victories at Czeslau and Chotusitz. In June and July of the same year, the Treaty of Breslau and Berlin was signed between Austria and Prussia. Under this treaty, Frederick withdrew from the alliance against Maria Theresa. Austria ceded to Prussia both Upper and Lower Silesia, as well as the County of Glatz, while retaining only the Principality of Teschen and the southwestern parts of the principalities of Neisse, Troppau, and Jagerndorf, with the Oppa River serving as the boundary. Prussia also assumed a debt of 1,700,000 rix dollars related to Silesia, which was owed to English and Dutch creditors. Meanwhile, Austria continued the war against its allies successfully, driving them completely out of Bohemia in 1742 and Bavaria in 1743. 26
The First Silesian War took place between 1740 and 1742. 27
In 1743, the King of Prussia formed a second alliance with Charles VII and France.28 Meanwhile, the Dutch Republic formed a coalition with England and Maria Theresa to oppose both Prussia and France. 29
The Second Silesian War began in 1744 and continued until 1745. 30
In 1744, Frederick II of Prussia invaded Bohemia and captured Prague. However, after being abandoned by the French, he was soon forced to retreat into Saxony. That same year, East Friesland was annexed by Prussia following the extinction of its ruling house. 31
In January 1745, Austria, Saxony, England, and the Dutch Republic allied against Prussia. Meanwhile, the French and Bavarians captured Munich. In the same month, Charles VII passed away, and his son, Maximilian Joseph, negotiated a separate Treaty of Füssen with Austria. As a result, Austria returned all of its conquests to Bavaria. 32
In May 1745, during the Battle of Fontenoy, the French forces led by Marshal Maurice of Saxony defeated the Pragmatic army and began the conquest of the Austrian Netherlands. Meanwhile, Frederick the Great achieved victories against the Austrians and Saxons, first defeating Charles of Lorraine in the Battle of Hohenfriedberg in Silesia, and later defeating the Austrians alone in the Battle of Soor in September. 33
Following these events, on December 15, 1745, Prussian General Leopold von Dessau won a decisive victory over the Saxons at Kesseldorf. This led to the conclusion of the Treaty of Dresden between Prussia and Austria (Saxony). Under the terms of the treaty, Frederick II recognized Francis I as the emperor, while Saxony agreed to pay Prussia 1 million rix dollars. 34
In 1746, Marshal Saxe achieved a second victory over the Austrian allies at Raucoux, completing the conquest of the Austrian Netherlands. Around the same time, a naval war broke out between England and France, and another conflict emerged in Italy involving France, Spain, and Austria. Meanwhile, Russia joined the combatants as an ally of Austria and dispatched an army to the Rhine. 35
In 1748, the Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle was signed, resulting in the reciprocal restoration of all territories conquered during the war. The treaty included guarantees that Silesia would remain part of Prussia and that the Pragmatic Sanction would be upheld in Austria. William Langer notes that "the change in the relations of European states was induced by the rise of Prussia to the rank of a great power." 36
The Third Silesian War, commonly referred to as the Seven Years' War, began in 1756. The conflict arose because Maria Theresa had formed a defensive alliance with Frederick's enemy, Empress Elizabeth of Russia. This alliance was established prior to the Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle in May 1746. Secret articles of their agreement stipulated that Silesia would be returned to Austria under certain conditions. 37
In September 1750, King George II of England signed the main treaty, but the secret articles were excluded. Saxony signed the treaty unconditionally. Maria Theresa and Wenzel Anton von Kaunitz—the Austrian ambassador to France until 1753 and then the chancellor of the Holy Roman Empire in Vienna - encouraged England to enter into a new subsidy treaty with Russia in 1755. In June of that same year, hostilities erupted between England and France in North America, without an official declaration of war. 38
In May 1756, the defense alliance between France and Austria was concluded. In June of that same year, war broke out between France and England in Europe. In August, Frederick II of Prussia invaded Saxony with an army of 67,000 men and captured Dresden in September. On October 1, he achieved victory against the Austrians at Lobositz, and on October 15, the Saxons surrendered at Pirna. 39
In January 1757, war was declared against Frederick II in the name of the Holy Roman Empire. At that time, Hanover, Hesse, Brunswick, and Gotha were allied with Prussia. In May of that year, Frederick invaded Bohemia with four army columns and achieved victory over the Austrians at Prague. He subsequently laid siege to the city, but in June, he suffered a defeat at the Battle of Kolin, forcing him to evacuate Bohemia. 40
In July 1757, during the Battle of Grossjägerndorf, the Russians invaded East Prussia and defeated the Prussians. However, they withdrew shortly afterward. In August 1758, at the Battle of Hochkirch, the Prussians achieved a decisive victory over the Russian army. 41
In August 1759, following the Battle of Kunersdorf, the Austrians captured Dresden. 42
In June 1760, the Prussians faced another defeat at the hands of the Austrians. However, Frederick II achieved a significant victory at the Battle of Liegnitz, which prevented the Austrians and Russians from allying. 43
In 1762, Elizabeth passed away, and Peter III, an admirer of Frederick II, became the ruler of Russia. Soon after, on May 5, 1762, he signed the Treaty of St. Petersburg. This agreement resulted in Russia restoring all conquests, and both parties renounced any hostile alliances. In the same month, Sweden and Prussia signed the Treaty of Hamburg, restoring the status quo ante bellum. In July, Frederick achieved a victory against the Austrians at Burkersdorf. 44
In February 1763, Austria and Prussia signed the Treaty of Hubertsburg, which ratified the earlier Treaties of Breslau and Berlin, confirming Prussia's retention of Silesia while Saxony returned to the pre-war status quo. 45
Between 1778 and 1779, the War of the Bavarian Succession erupted following the death of Elector Maximilian Joseph of Bavaria, leading to the extinction of the Bavarian Wittelsbach male line. In January 1778, Austrian forces occupied Lower Bavaria. Frederick II of Prussia opposed the Austrian ambitions. Direct negotiations failed, and Saxony allied with Prussia. 46
In July 1778, Frederick and Henry, Prince of Prussia, invaded Bohemia. By autumn, Prince Henry had retreated to Saxony, while Frederick withdrew to Silesia. The conflict ultimately ended with the Treaty of Teschen in May 1779. Under the terms of this treaty, Austria retained only part of Lower Bavaria. Additionally, Austria agreed to the future union of the margravates of Ansbach and Bayreuth with the Prussian monarchy. Saxony also gained some previously disputed sovereignty rights and was awarded nine million rix dollars. 47
Initially motivated by geographic vulnerability and the need for defense, Prussia's growth turned into an assertive campaign for territorial consolidation and political recognition. Under the leadership of the Great Elector, Prussia established a strong military foundation. Prussia's strength was further developed during the reigns of Frederick I and Frederick II (the Great), as Prussia began to challenge Austria's authority within the Holy Roman Empire and beyond.
Prussia's first significant political opposition to the Austrian Habsburgs emerged in 1725, with the Treaty of Hanover, aligning it with Britain and France against the Austro-Spanish alliance. This early defiance escalated into military confrontation in 1740 with the Prussian invasion of Silesia. During the subsequent conflicts - particularly the War of the Austrian Succession and the Seven Year's War - the Austrian Habsburgs were supported by great and regional powers, including France, Russia, Sweden, and Saxony, in their effort to contain the rising Prussian threat. By the conclusion of the Seven Years' War, Prussia had firmly secured its position as a major European power, marking a decisive shift in the continental balance of power.
Endnotes
1. Paul Kennedy, The Habsburg Bid for Mastery, 1519-1659, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 66.
2. Ibid.
3. Brendan Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 57.
4. Ibid., 58.
5. Ibid., 62-64.
6. Ibid., 65.
7. Ibid., 65-66.
8. Ibid., 67.
9. Ibid., 72.
10. Ibid., 78.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid., 80.
14. Ibid., 83.
15. Ibid., 84.
16. Ibid., 86.
17. William L. Langer, The Iberian Peninsula, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press: 1940), 451.
18. Ibid., 447, 463.
19. William L. Langer, Germany, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 463.
20. Ibid., 465.
21. Ibid.
22. Langer, The Iberian Peninsula, 447.
23. Simms, Successions, 1649-1755, 96-97.
24. Ibid., 97.
25. Langer, Germany, 465.
26. Ibid.
27. Ibid.
28. Ibid., 466.
29. William L. Langer, The Dutch Republic, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press: 1940), 440.
30. Langer, Germany, 466.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid.
33. Ibid.
34. Ibid.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid.
37. Ibid.
38. Ibid.
39. Ibid., 467.
40. Ibid.
41. Ibid.
42. Ibid.
43. Ibid.
44. Ibid., 468.
45. Ibid.
46. Ibid.
47. Ibid.
XI. Prussia v. Great Britain
Period – The second half of the 18th century
Ruling Power – Great Britain
Rising Power – Prussia
Domain – Regional dominance
Outcome - No War
"In May 1762, the Anglo-Bourbon colonial war was concluded at the Treaty of Paris and the German war at the Treaty of Hubertusburg... The global balance now shifted decisively in favor of Britain, thanks to the success of her policy in the Holy Roman Empire, while the European equilibrium, on which the whole system rested, now adjusted to take account of the rise of Russia and Prussia..." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, p. 111.
As mentioned in the previous case, the struggle for supremacy in Europe often manifested as open conflict between rising and ruling powers - most notably in the coalition of the Austrian Habsburgs and France against Prussia, which ultimately led to war. In contrast, the dynamic between Prussia and Great Britain followed a different trajectory.
In January 1756, George II of England signed a neutrality treaty at Westminster with Frederick II of Prussia, leading to a rupture in relations between England and Russia. 1 In the following month, France and the Austrian Habsburgs signed the Treaty of Versailles. Frederick II was concerned that Prussia might lose Silesia to Austria, Pomerania to Sweden, Magdeburg and possibly additional territory to Saxony, and East Prussia to either Poland or Russia.2 In June, a war broke out between France and England in Europe. Frederick II of Prussia, realizing that Russia and France were not in a position to take offensive action against him, decided to catch his enemies by surprise. In August 1756, he invaded Saxony, capturing Dresden in September. The following month, October, he achieved victory against the Austrians at the Battle of Lobositz. In January 1757, war was declared in the name of the Empire against Frederick II of Prussia. 3
During the Seven Years' War (1756-1763), Britain and Prussia cooperated closely, with Britain providing financial support to assist Prussia's military efforts. However, after George III ascended to the throne in 1760, the situation changed significantly. By 1762, Frederick had lost English subsidies and was facing considerable difficulties. 4 Brendan Simms suggests that London abandoned Frederick due to their exhaustion with the 'German War.' 5
As a result of these treaties, Prussia retained control of Silesia without offering any 'compensation' to Austria for its loss. Additionally, Spain ceded Florida to Britain. As a consequence of its successful policies in the Holy Roman Empire, Britain emerged as a dominant global power. However, two new rising powers, Prussia and Russia, were also beginning to assert themselves on the European stage.6
After 1763, Frederick was primarily concerned about the increasing power of Russia in the east. In 1764, an alliance with Russia provided him with some breathing room, but it was not enough.7
After the Seven Years’ War, Britain increasingly prioritized its naval power and global operations, reducing its diplomatic and military engagement in Europe - especially within the Holy Roman Empire. This shift left Britain more isolated and vulnerable. It also became clear that Britain’s responsibilities had greatly expanded. In the west, British forces faced resistance from Native American tribes and Spanish forces near the Mississippi River. In the north, the French-speaking population of Quebec posed a potential threat to British control. Between 1763 and 1764, Pontiac’s Rebellion revealed the weakness and unpreparedness of Britain’s colonial defenses. Furthermore, Britain was already heavily in debt due to the Seven Years' War. 8
In 1770, Russian forces defeated the Turkish fleet at the Battle of Chesme. Subsequently, Russian troops occupied Moldavia and Bessarabia and appeared poised to advance into Wallachia. Frederick feared that Russia's war against the Turks could determine the fate of Poland, potentially leading to increased Russian interference in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The only viable solution was to divide the territorial gains as evenly as possible among the powers involved.9
In August 1772, the three Eastern powers announced their intention to partition large areas of the Commonwealth. Russia acquired a significant portion of eastern Poland, while Austria received the relatively prosperous province of Galicia. Frederick the Great took control of the smaller but strategically important region of West Prussia, which connected East Prussia with the core territories of the Prussian state. 10
Meanwhile, in 1772, the East India Company, which London hoped would help finance imperial defense around the world, went bankrupt. In 1774, Britain evacuated the Falkland Islands to save money and, to some extent, appease Spain. 11
In 1775, the colonists found themselves in conflict with the British government over constitutional and strategic differences stemming from British foreign policy. Soon, British and patriot forces clashed at Lexington. On July 4, 1776, the American Declaration of Independence was adopted. In November 1777, Congress agreed to the Articles of Confederation. 12 Preoccupied with the American War of Independence, Britain diverted its focus from European politics and chose not to intervene in the War of the Bavarian Succession between 1778 and 1779. 13
In 1781, a joint Franco-American effort trapped a large British force at Yorktown, leading to its surrender. The Treaty of Paris, which concluded the American War in 1783, marked a significant change in the international state system. Britain was partitioned among France, Spain, and the American colonists. Furthermore, Britain was compelled to recognize the thirteen colonies as independent states. While Britain retained control of Gibraltar, it surrendered Florida and Minorca to Spain, and France regained Louisiana.14
In 1787, the Ottomans launched a preemptive strike against Russia, prompting a Russian counterattack that pushed south into the Ottoman Empire. Later that year, Joseph II, the Holy Roman Emperor, joined the war on Russia's side. Frederick William II, the successor to Frederick the Great, was concerned that a successful Austro-Russian campaign against the Ottomans would weaken his position in Prussia. Additionally, Prussia faced threats from the west, where the Patriot Party, supported by France—Austria's ally—was gaining strength in the United Provinces.15
When the Patriots seized the Stadholder's wife, who was Frederick William's sister, he decided to take action. In 1787, he invaded the Dutch Republic and restored the House of Orange. A year later, he established the Triple Alliance with Holland and Great Britain.16
During the mid-to-late eighteenth century, Prussia emerged as a significant regional power, challenging Britain's traditional dominance in Europe. However, despite the increasing potential for confrontation, their rivalry remained peaceful. The peaceful outcome was mainly due to Britain's strategic distractions and material constraints. The financial burdens of the Seven Years' War, the crisis facing the East India Company, and the outbreak of the American War of Independence diverted British attention and resources, leading to a retreat from European affairs. Meanwhile, Prussia, under the leadership of Frederick the Great and his successor, took advantage of this strategic vacuum to establish its dominance in the region without facing direct opposition from Britain.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, Germany, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 466-467.
2. Brendan Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 107.
3. Langer, Germany, 467.
4. Ibid.
5. Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, 111.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid., 114.
8. Ibid., 115.
9. Ibid., 118.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid., 120.
12. Ibid., 121-122.
13. Langer, Germany, 468.
14. Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, 125.
15. Ibid., 127.
16. Ibid.
XII. The German Confederation v. France
Period – The mid-to-late 19th century
Ruling Power – The Kingdom of France
Rising Power – The German Confederation
Domain – Continental dominance
Outcome - No War
"At the heart of this new order was the German Confederation - Deutscher Bund - which replaced the defunct Holy Roman Empire. It was designed to maintain the European balance by being strong enough to contain Franco-Russian ambitions..." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 164.
After the Napoleonic Wars, Central Europe, specifically the German states and the Austrian Empire, was governed by what is known as the "Metternich System." Metternich, the leader of Austria, took control of politics in the region.1
In 1815, the Congress of Vienna established the German Confederation (Deutscher Bund), which united 38 independent German states, including Austria and Prussia. The primary goal of this Confederation was to ensure both external and internal peace in Germany while maintaining the independence of its member states.2
The central assembly of the Confederation, known as the Diet, was located in Frankfurt. Unlike a parliament, the Diet functioned as a diplomatic congress, consisting of delegates instructed by the member states. Metternich viewed this arrangement as a loose confederation designed to protect German monarchs from foreign threats, particularly Russia and France, as well as from their domestic adversary - liberalism.3
The preamble of the German Federal Act called for a 'strong and durable union for the independence of Germany and the peace and equilibrium of Europe.' The 11th article of the Confederation obligated members to provide mutual assistance in the event of an invasion, prohibited making separate peace with the aggressor, and forbade concluding agreements that threatened the integrity of the Confederation. Furthermore, the Confederation was responsible for maintaining a balanced internal political structure in Germany, both among the member states and within each state. The Confederation's constitution was included in the Vienna Final Act, which thus served as a new European Treaty of Westphalia.4
After the 1815 settlement, France experienced a rapid revival. The French army was reestablished, though on a much smaller scale. Brendan Simms suggests that, at this time, France's intentions were primarily defensive.5
France soon faced a rise in revanchism both in the French Parliament and among the public. Almost 40% of the deputies elected under the constitutional charter established by the Bourbons in 1817 had previously been Bonapartists during the Hundred Days. Even many royalists believed that France should assert itself as the arbiter of Europe. 6
In 1818, a defense commission convened to address the threat to France's eastern border. The commission concluded that only a large-scale program of military expansion and fortress construction could ensure security against the German Confederation. 7
In November 1820, representatives from Russia, Prussia, and Austria gathered in Troppau. They agreed that when a state experiences a change in government due to revolution that poses a threat to other states, it should be restored to order. This could be achieved through peaceful means or, if necessary, by military action. Based on this, the parties reconvened in Laibach in 1821 to approve the Austrian intervention in Naples and Piedmont. 8
In April 1823, France invaded Spain in support of Ferdinand VII.9 Metternich disapproved of this action.10
Prussia grew increasingly concerned about the resurgence of French power in the 1820s. Meanwhile, French observers across the Rhine anxiously monitored the expansion of Germany's military capabilities. Within and especially outside of parliament, many voices criticized the monarch and his ministers for not moving more swiftly to revise the hated treaties of 1815. 11
In following years, revolutionary discontent and domestic unrest spread across Europe. In late August 1830, the Belgians revolted against King William IV of the United Netherlands and declared their independence. Luxembourg also rebelled and was claimed by the Belgians, defying the German Confederation. Three months later, the Poles rose in Warsaw against Russian rule. Most German states remained relatively quiet, but there were revolutionary eruptions in Saxony and Brunswick. The beginning of 1831 also saw revolts in Italy, particularly in Parma and Modena. Brendan Simms argues that the consequences of these upheavals for European stability were significantly more serious than in the 1820s. 12
William IV was unwilling to accept the loss of Belgium, and in early August, Dutch forces attempted to recapture the territory. This development provided France with a pretext for intervention, leading to the siege of William's troops in Antwerp, which was marked by significant patriotic fervor. It was not until the very end of 1832 that the Dutch were defeated, ensuring the integrity of the newly neutralized Belgian state. Shortly thereafter, French troops withdrew. 13
The revolution even impacted France itself. In July 1830, following the revolution, King Charles X was overthrown. Liberals elected Louis Philippe, Duke of Orleans, and a representative of the younger Bourbon line. Louis Philippe ruled from 1830 to 1848. 14
In February 1836, Adolphe Thiers was elected as the Prime Minister of France, but his first term was short, lasting only until September of the same year. In 1836, King Philippe appointed his personal friend, Count Molé, as Prime Minister, a position he held until 1839. In that year, Molé was overthrown by two opposition parties. Thiers returned to office in March 1840 for a second term, which again was brief, ending in October. During this period, he led France to the brink of war during the Near Eastern Crisis. Thiers was succeeded by Marshal Soult, who served as Prime Minister from 1840 to 1847. 15
The first major clash between France and the German Confederation occurred in 1840 during the Rhine Crisis, which did not escalate into military conflict. At that time, the French Prime Minister, Adolphe Thiers, sought to raise tensions and compensate for France's disappointment in the Near East by proposing to revise the Rhine frontier. In response to this French aggression, a wave of nationalism swept across Germany. Prussia took on the challenge and, in a very short period, organized its western confederal fortresses and mobilized nearly 200,000 troops. Ultimately, Louis Philippe lost his nerve, Thiers resigned, and France backed down, thus averting war. 16
The international scene remained relatively stable until the mid-1840s. However, starting in 1845, significant turmoil began. In December of that year, faced with the threat of British and French influence in Mexico and the relentless advance of the anti-slavery movement around the borders of the republic, the United States annexed Texas as a slave state. According to Simms, "it did so partly to pre-empt a European power, and partly because the Southern lobby required the extension of slavery to new territories in order to maintain their domestic position against the abolitionist threat in the North. Border tensions soon escalated into a war, which Mexico lost decisively." 17
In autumn 1845, the French government began constructing a network of strategic railways that threatened the western border of the Confederation. The Confederation hesitated to respond.18
By late 1847, the socio-economic and political crises quickly undermined the remaining legitimacy and financial credibility of the ancien régime in France, Austria, and Prussia.19
On December 20, 1848, Prince Louis Napoleon Bonaparte became the president of the French Republic. After two years, as his term was nearing its end and he was barred from reelection, he initially pursued legal methods to extend his presidency. He requested the National Assembly to revise Article 45 of the constitution, which prohibited consecutive four-year terms for a president. Although he had a clear majority in the assembly at the time, a three-quarter vote was required for the revision. When this legal approach failed, on December 2, he dissolved the National Assembly and seized power by force. In December 1852, he proclaimed the establishment of the Second French Empire and declared himself Emperor Napoleon III, ruling until 1870. 20
In 1854, Britain, France, and later Piedmont declared war on Russia, sending a substantial expeditionary force to attack the Tsar on his southern flank in Crimea.21 The conflict was triggered by a dispute over the custody of holy places in Palestine but was rooted in broader tensions over Russian expansion into the declining Ottoman Empire. 22 On April 20 of the same year, Prussia and Austria signed a defensive alliance, pledging to guarantee each other's territory and oppose Russian moves beyond the Balkans. 23 The Habsburgs issued an ultimatum to the Russian Empire, demanding the withdrawal of its forces from Moldavia and Wallachia. The Russian forces made way for an Austrian garrison during the conflict. 24
In December 1855, the Austrians joined the French and British in presenting an ultimatum to the new Tsar, Alexander II, who subsequently sued for peace.25
In July 1858, the Prime Minister of Piedmont, Count Cavour, met with Napoleon III at Plombières to discuss the expulsion of the Habsburgs from Italy. Russia, still angered by Austria's betrayal during the Crimean War, signaled its intention to remain neutral. In March 1859, a secret Franco-Russian treaty was formed, in which the Tsar agreed to support changes in Italy and to keep the German Confederation neutral in exchange for an implicit pledge to revise the disliked 'Black Sea' clauses. 26
Following their meeting at Plombières, Napoleon III and Cavour established several key agreements. France was to obtain the territories of Nice and Savoy, while Piedmont would acquire significant annexations in northern Italy. Rome and Naples would remain independent, whereas Tuscany and the Papal States were to be united into a Kingdom of Central Italy. These regions were to be interconnected through an Italian Confederation. 27
In April 1859, Austria chose to take preemptive action by issuing an ultimatum that demanded Piedmont halt its military preparations. During this period, many states within the German Confederation were concerned about the possibility of being involved in a war with France due to Habsburg ambitions in Italy. Prussia maintained a position of strict neutrality at that time. 28
Austria suffered significant defeats in the costly battles of Magenta and Solferino. Nevertheless, the Confederation began to mobilize under Prussian leadership to avert Austria's complete collapse. A substantial force was assembled, posing a threat to France on its eastern border. Alarmed by the possibility of Prussian intervention, Napoleon reached an agreement with Emperor Francis Joseph at Villafranca, of which the terms were far less advantageous than those discussed earlier at Plombières. Austria ceded Lombardy to France, which in turn transferred it to Piedmont, while the central Italian principalities were to be restored. Cavour soon expressed his discontent by resigning. Brendan Simms notes that "for the second time in less than a decade, the German card had been played in Europe to decisive effect." 29
In March 1863, Denmark proclaimed the incorporation of Schleswig into its monarchy. In reaction, the Diet of the German Confederation, responding to significant pressure from indignant nationalists, declared war on Denmark. During the spring and summer of 1864, Prussian and Austrian troops decisively defeated the Danish forces. Consequently, Schleswig and Holstein were placed under the joint administration of Vienna and Berlin.30
In 1865, the chancellor of Prussia, Bismarck turned his attention to Austria, the primary barrier to Prussian territorial expansion and the fulfillment of German national aspirations. At this juncture, Vienna found itself on the back foot, having recently managed to keep pace with Prussia in the Danish War and grappling with renewed Hungarian obstructionism. Hungary's unwillingness to actively participate had long been a critical vulnerability for the Habsburgs. By the mid-1860s, this situation became particularly dire, as Hungary could cover Austria's entire state deficit if it had met its obligations.31
In 1866, Bismarck took decisive action. He refused to endorse proposals for confederal reform originating from Vienna and Third Germany. In April of that year, he allied with Italy, promising Venetia in exchange for Italy opening a front against Austria from the south. Additionally, Bismarck encouraged Hungarian separatism as a means to weaken Emperor Francis Joseph of Austria further domestically. 32
That same month, Prussian forces occupied Holstein, which was supposed to be under Austrian administration. In response, Austria mobilized for war. The Prussian army quickly assembled in Bohemia, taking advantage of the new rail network, and achieved a resounding victory over the Austrians at the Battle of Sadowa in June 1866. Although the armies of the Third Germany managed some local successes against Prussia, they were swiftly overwhelmed. 33
In August, Austria acknowledged its defeat in Germany with the signing of the Treaty of Prague. Two months later, Austria ceded Venetia to France, which subsequently presented it to Italy at the Treaty of Vienna. Prussia also annexed Schleswig-Holstein, Hanover, Hesse-Cassel, and Frankfurt. Meanwhile, much of the remainder of Germany—consisting of twenty-two states—was consolidated into the North German Confederation under Berlin's leadership. The southern German states retained their independence but were compelled to enter into secret military agreements, thereby further linking them to Prussia. 34
The German Confederation came to an end in 1866, following the Austro-Prussian War. In 1867, the German states situated north of the Main River established the North German Confederation under the leadership of Prussia. 35
Throughout its existence from 1815 to 1866, there were no direct military confrontations between France and the German Confederation. The primary crisis, known as the Rhine Crisis of 1840, was a political struggle, yet it ultimately did not escalate into armed conflict. A subsequent crisis occurred in 1859 when the Austrian Habsburgs launched a military campaign against both Piedmont-Sardinia and France during the Second Italian War of Independence. However, this action was taken unilaterally by Austria and did not reflect a collective decision or mobilization by the German Confederation.
After the dissolution of the German Confederation, a new political entity, the North German Confederation was established, led by Prussia. The ensuing war between France and the North German Confederation from 1870 to 1871 involved a fundamentally different entity (rising power) and should be treated as a distinct historical case. Maintaining this distinction is crucial for an accurate analysis of the power dynamics in 19th-century Europe.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, Central Europe, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 667.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Brendan Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 164.
5. Ibid., 167.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid.
9. William L. Langer, France, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 627.
10. Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, 171.
11. Ibid., 173.
12. Ibid., 174.
13. Ibid., 175.
14. Langer, France, 627-628.
15. Ibid., 628.
16. Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, 181-182.
17. Ibid., 185.
18. Ibid., 187.
19. Ibid., 189.
20. Langer, France, 631-632.
21. Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, 196-197.
22. Langer, France, 633.
23. William L. Langer, The Ottoman Empire, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Bpston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 727.
24. Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, 197.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid., 199.
27. Ibid., 200.
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid., 205.
31. Ibid., 205-206.
32. Ibid., 206.
33. Ibid.
34. Simms, Emancipations, 1814-66, 207.
35. William L. Langer, Central Europe, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 686.
XIII. The North German Confederation v. France
Period – The late 19th century
Ruling Power – The Kingdom of France
Rising Power – The North German Confederation
Domain – Dominance in Europe
Outcome - War
"In South Germany there was still much opposition to union with Prussia, due to cultural and religious differences and general suspicion... It became increasingly evident to Bismarck that only war with France and the specter of French domination in the Rhineland would drive the South German states into the union. War he regarded as inevitable, convinced as he was that France would not peaceably permit the inclusion of the South German states in the Confederation." - William L. Langer, in An Encyclopedia of World History, 1940, 687.
"In France, the rise of Prussia dominated foreign and domestic politics after 1866. Napoleon sought to counter the twin embarrassments of defeat in Mexico, and the unilateral victory of Bismarck over Austria, by staking claims to 'compensation' in western Germany, Luxemburg and even Belgium." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 212-213.
As noted in the 11th case, The Kingdom of France v. The German Confederation, the original German Confederation, was dissolved in 1866 following Austria's defeat in the Austro-Prussian War. In its aftermath, the German states located north of the Main River formed a new political alliance in 1867: the North German Confederation. Unlike its predecessor, which the Austrian Habsburgs had dominated, this new Confederation was led by Prussia and excluded Austria entirely. It comprised only the northern German states, marking a clear departure from the earlier confederal structure.
The constitution of the new confederation was primarily crafted by Bismarck himself. Under this constitution, the individual states retained their governments; however, the military forces were under the control of the federal government, with the King of Prussia serving as commander in chief. The presidency was held by the King of Prussia and was represented by a chancellor (Bismarck), who was accountable solely to him. 1
The federal council, known as the Bundesrat, consisted of appointed delegates from the various states, with a total of 43 votes allocated among them. Prussia possessed 17 of these votes and unofficially influenced the voting power of several smaller North German states. While the Bundesrat held constituent powers, a two-thirds majority was required for any amendments to the constitution. 2
The Prussian victory over the Habsburgs had a profound impact on Habsburg domestic politics. In 1867, Vienna finally reached an agreement with Budapest known as the Ausgleich. As part of this agreement, Hungary retained its parliament with substantial fiscal and legislative powers and acquired its own army, the Honvéd. Additionally, Hungary was formally granted equal status with the Austrian half of the empire. This new arrangement established a dual monarchy - Austria-Hungary. The dynasty hoped that the energies unleashed by this new constitutional structure would make the empire more competitive within the European system.3
After 1866, the rise of Prussia significantly influenced both foreign and domestic politics in France. Napoleon aimed to counter the dual embarrassments of his defeat in Mexico and Bismarck's unilateral victory over Austria by claiming 'compensation' in western Germany, Luxembourg, and even Belgium.4
In April 1867, the Luxembourg crisis arose when Napoleon III sought to acquire the Duchy of Luxembourg from the King of the Netherlands, who held suzerainty over the territory. Although Bismarck had pledged not to oppose this transaction, the French mismanaged the situation, and details of the affair leaked. Bismarck faced questioning in the newly established North German Reichstag, prompting the King of the Netherlands to withdraw from the arrangements he had made. This led to a period of significant tension, which ultimately concluded with a compromise.5
In May 1867, an international conference took place in London. As a consequence, Prussia renounced its right to garrison the fortress in the town of Luxembourg, and the duchy ceased to be part of the North German Confederation. The participating powers guaranteed the neutrality and independence of the duchy. This agreement was a significant humiliation for Napoleon, who thereafter regarded a final reckoning with Prussia as inevitable. In light of this, he reorganized his army and began negotiations with Austria and Italy.6
In July, Bismarck successfully brought the four southern German states into the Zollverein and established a Zollparlament (customs parliament). This parliament included the North German Reichstag along with representatives from the southern German states. According to William Langer, this was effectively a parliament for all of Germany, although it was only authorized to address customs-related issues.7
In southern Germany, there was still significant opposition to union with Prussia due to cultural and religious differences, general suspicion, and strong attachment to states' rights. 8
Bismarck increasingly recognized that only a war with France and the threat of French domination in the Rhine region would compel the southern German states to join the union. He believed that war was inevitable, as he was convinced that France would not allow the peaceful inclusion of the southern German states into the Confederation. 9
In March 1868, Bismarck confronted the Tsar, ensuring that Russia would keep Austria-Hungary in check. Between March and April of 1869, he capitalized on the international controversy surrounding French attempts to gain control over parts of the Belgian railway system. That same year, Prussia backed the candidacy of a Hohenzollern for the Spanish throne, which France vehemently opposed. Napoleon, aiming to preempt what he viewed as a potential threat - based on the dubious assumption that Leopold would be willing and able to align Spanish foreign policy with Bismarck's objectives - ultimately decided to confront Prussia. 10
On July 15, 1870, relying on the preparedness of their army and the support of Austria and Italy, the French decided to go to war with Prussia. On July 19, France officially declared war on Prussia, leading to the Franco-German War, which lasted from 1870 to 1871. 11
Bismarck immediately gained the armed support of the South German states and the benevolent neutrality of Russia. The German armies invaded France, while the French army advanced into the Saar and achieved a minor victory at Saarbrücken. However, the German forces soon gained the upper hand. On September 2, after the Battle of Sedan, Napoleon and his army capitulated. 12
During the war, public opinion in Germany demanded the unification of North and South Germany. Bismarck negotiated separately with each state, making essential concessions. By the end of November 1870, treaties had been signed with all the states. On January 18, 1871, the German Empire was founded, with William I as the Emperor. 13
Unlike the earlier case involving the German Confederation, which experienced political crises and diplomatic tensions with France but never escalated to full-scale war, this case concerns a different political entity: the North German Confederation. Formed under Prussian leadership after the dissolution of the original German Confederation in 1866, the North German Confederation represented a consolidated and rising power. Acting in unison and later supported by the South German states, the North German Confederation directly confronted France. This case illustrates the rising power versus ruling power scenario, ultimately leading to war.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, Central Europe, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 686.
2. Ibid.
3. Brendan Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 212.
4. Ibid.
5. Langer, Central Europe, 687.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid., 686.
8. Ibid., 687.
9. Ibid.
10. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 213.
11. Langer, Central Europe, 688.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
XIV. Japan v. the Russian Empire
Period – The late 19th and early 20th century
Ruling Power – The Russian Empire
Rising Power – Japan
Domain – Dominance in East Asia
Outcome - War
"By a unique feat, Japan had transformed herself from a decaying oriental kingdom into a modern industrialized state, determined to play its part as a Great Power. The Japanese foresaw the Russian concentration on the Far East which would follow the completion of the Trans-Siberian railway; and they resolved to protect themselves by establishing Korea as a buffer-state, independent of Chinese influence." - A. J. P. Taylor in The Struggle For Mastery in Europe, 1848-1918, 1954, 355.
"In February 1904, Japan pre-empted further Russian expansion in China by launching a devastating surprise attack on the tsarist fleet in Port Arthur. Over the next year and a half, the two powers slugged it out in Manchuria and on the high seas... The defeat of the Russian army at Mukden in late February and the complete destruction of her Baltic fleet at Tsushima in May 1905 finally forced St Petersburg to sue for peace." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 240.
“At the beginning of the second quarter of the nineteenth century the central area of the Far East, comprising China, Korea, and Japan, with approximately half the population of Asia and a quarter of the population of the world, was still almost inaccessible to the travel and commerce of Western nations and virtually impervious to Western cultural influences.” 1
Japan was established in the 17th century after a period of early commercial interactions with Western nations and the spread of Christianity within the country. Under its seclusion policy, foreigners were not allowed to enter Japan, except Chinese and Dutch merchants. These merchants were permitted to engage in a limited and closely regulated trade, which was confined to the single port of Nagasaki. Additionally, no Japanese citizens were allowed to travel abroad. Japan maintained the 'closed country' (Sakoku) policy until 1853. 2
According to Paul Kennedy, for centuries, Japan was governed by a decentralized feudal oligarchy made up of territorial lords (daimyo) and a warrior aristocracy (samurai). The country faced significant challenges due to its lack of natural resources and its mountainous terrain, which left only 20 percent of the land suitable for agriculture. Japan lacked the usual prerequisites for economic development. Additionally, it was isolated from the rest of the world by a complex language with no close relatives, combined with a strong sense of cultural uniqueness. As a result, the Japanese people remained inward-looking and resistant to foreign influences well into the second half of the nineteenth century. "For all these reasons Japan seemed destined to remain politically immature, economically backward, and militarily impotent in World Power terms. Yet within two generations it had become a major player in the international politics of the Far East." 3
According to G. F. Hudson, "... with the settlement of the American Pacific coast and the establishment of a shipping route between San Francisco and Shanghai, Japan was brought into a new relation geographically to Western oceanic enterprise and the United States came to have an interest in opening Japan, particularly in order to get a coaling station on the long trans-Pacific sea-route to Shanghai. Thus it happened that Japan was compelled to abandon her seclusion policy, not by Britain or France, but by America.4
In July 1853, Commodore Matthew Perry arrived off Uraga with four American warships, not far from Yedo (modern-day Tokyo), which was then the seat of the shogunate government. Perry presented a letter from the President of the United States, asserting that unless it were acknowledged and answered, he would not be held responsible for the consequences. After delivering the letter, Perry declared his intention to return the following year for a response. 5
The shogun, alarmed by this intimidating visit, convened a council of feudal lords to deliberate on whether to resist or submit to the American demands. While a strong faction advocated for defiance, the decisive argument was that Japan had no naval fleet and its coastal defenses were insufficient to withstand a bombardment from Western naval artillery. Ultimately, it was decided that, for the time being, discretion was the better part of valor, and Perry should receive a conciliatory response. 6
This decision led to the signing of the Treaty of Kanagawa on March 31, 1854, which marked the first significant step toward the opening of Japan. 7
Shortly after signing the Treaty of Kanagawa, which opened two ports and improved the treatment of American castaways, Japan entered into further treaties. In October 1854, a new treaty was signed with England, followed by a treaty with Russia in February 1855, and additional agreements with Holland between 1855 and 1856. Despite these developments, William Langer notes that Japan was still not fully open to trade. All these treaties were signed by the Shogun, whom foreigners mistakenly viewed as the secular emperor.8
Between 1854 and 1855, the Dutch assisted the Japanese in establishing the foundations for a future navy. 9
In August 1856, American Consul-General Townsend Harris arrived at Shimoda with instructions to secure a commercial treaty. 10
In 1858, there was pressure from the emperor to halt foreign trade. The government in Edo (now Tokyo) requested the emperor's approval for trade with other countries, but he declined. Simultaneously, the people in Kyoto strongly opposed foreigners and supported the emperor's authority. In June of that year, Li Naosuke rose to power as a high-ranking official (tairo) in Edo. He enacted significant political decisions, including selecting Iemochi as the next shogun. Following this, he approved a major trade treaty with the U.S. representative, Harris, without obtaining the emperor's permission. 11
The new trade treaty allowed for the following: free trade and the permanent residence of foreigners in five Japanese port cities; foreigners living in Edo and Osaka; a U.S. representative residing in Edo; foreigners following their own country's laws; a fixed tariff system; a ban on opium imports; a plan to revise the treaty after 1872. 12
In 1858, the new shogun, Iemochi, was appointed. He continued his anti-foreign sentiment. The desire of the emperor to restore direct rule rapidly increased. 13
In February 1859, Kyoto informed Edo (now Tokyo) that foreigners should be expelled from Japan as soon as possible. That same year, foreign merchants began settling in Yokohama, which led to a series of attacks on foreigners and resulted in increased foreign pressure on Edo for compensation. 14
In March 1860, Ii Naosuke was assassinated. Later that year, on May 17, Japan opened its first embassy in the United States, where it exchanged treaty ratifications in Washington. 15
In 1861, Russia occupied Tsushima. 16
In April 1863, Iemochi traveled to Kyoto in response to a summons from the emperor. On June 5, June 25 was chosen for the expulsion of foreigners. During June, the Choshu forts at Shimonoseki fired upon an American vessel, followed by attacks on French and Dutch ships. In retaliation, American and French warships launched reprisals. 17
In September 1864, a coalition of British, Dutch, French, and American forces attacked and neutralized the Choshu forts at Shimonoseki, effectively suppressing the anti-foreign movement. In October, the Tokugawa government in Edo agreed to pay indemnities (financial compensation) for Choshu's actions. 18
In June 1866, Japan signed a tariff convention with the United States, England, France, and the Netherlands. A 5 percent duty was imposed on nearly all imports and exports, and this policy remained in effect until 1899. 19
In September 1866, Shogun Tokugawa Iemochi died and was succeeded by Keiki (Hitotsubashi Yoshinobu). Shortly after assuming the position of shogun, Keiki was compelled to relinquish power to Emperor Mutshuhito (the Meiji Emperor). Keiki resigned in November of the same year, marking the collapse of nearly 700 years of feudal military rule in Japan. 20
In January 1868, the emperor assumed direct control of the nation. He also received French, Dutch, and British representatives in March. In November, the capital of Japan moved to Edo, which was named as Tokyo (Eastern capital). 21
When the Meiji era began, Japan quickly abandoned its anti-foreign policies. Similar to China's earlier approach, Japan started adopting ideas from Western countries. The military rule and the old feudal system were abolished, leading to the establishment of a strong central government influenced by Western concepts under the Meiji Emperor. As William Langer notes, under Meiji's rule, "... Japan became a modern world power." Japan rapidly built factories and railways similar to those in the West. Consequently, the population grew, and more individuals became educated. New ideas in science, art, and philosophy began to spread, while traditional Japanese customs started to lose their significance. 22
In September 1871, Japan signed the Treaty of Tientsin with China, establishing a relationship of equality between the two nations. 23
In 1872, Japan introduced universal military service, initially modeling its army after the French military and later adopting elements from the German military. During the same period, the first railway in Japan was opened, and national bank regulations were implemented based on the American model. 24
In October 1873, Japan opted for a peaceful approach towards Korea instead of pursuing a confrontational policy. 25
In April 1874, Japan launched an expedition from Amoy (Xiamen) to Formosa to address the murder of Ryukyu sailors by the local natives in December 1871. Japan asserted its suzerainty over Ryukyu, while China chose to avoid taking responsibility for the incident. By October, Japan agreed to withdraw the expedition, and China subsequently agreed to pay an indemnity. 26
In February 1876, Japan conducted a naval demonstration to secure the treaty with Korea. Under the new treaty, Japan recognized Korea as independent of China and granted Japan extra-territorial and commercial privileges. 27
In 1877, the Satsuma Rebellion led by Saigo took place in Japan, but Japan's modern army crushed it. 28
In May 1882, Korea opened to Western trade through a treaty with the United States, signed by Commodore Shufeldt and Li Hung-chang in Tientsin. This treaty recognized Korea as a sovereign state, weakening China's position in the region. 29
On April 18, 1885, a convention was signed between China and Japan, in which both powers agreed to withdraw their troops from Korea and to inform each other of any intentions to send them back. According to William Langer, this was "really a victory for Japan." Russia attempted to establish a protectorate over Korea, but this effort was unsuccessful. 30
In the late 19th century, Japan underwent rapid commercial and industrial expansion, driven by state-led initiatives in sectors such as paper manufacturing and cotton spinning. By 1890, the country had established approximately 200 steam-powered factories. Infrastructure development also advanced swiftly: by 1901, Japan had constructed 959 miles of government-owned railways and an additional 2,905 miles of privately operated lines. Maritime capacity expanded as well, with the tonnage of steamships rising from 15,000 in 1893 to over 1.5 million by 1905. In the realm of communication systems, Japan unified the telegraph and postal systems in 1886, enhancing communication across the nation. 31
Between 1894 and 1895, the Sino-Japanese War occurred primarily due to a struggle for control over Korea. In March 1894, rising anti-foreign sentiments associated with the Tonghak Society in southern Korea prompted both China and Japan to send troops to the region. On July 23 of that year, Japanese forces seized the royal palace in Seoul, igniting hostilities. The subsequent Japanese victories at Pyongyang, the naval battle of the Yalu, the invasion of Manchuria, and the capture of Port Arthur undermined Chinese attempts to negotiate peace. In February 1895, Japanese forces seized control of Wei-hai-wei. 32
According to A.J.P. Taylor, during this period, Britain acted as a patron of China and attempted to organize a combined intervention by European powers in China's favor. However, Britain's efforts were unsuccessful, and the Chinese were ultimately defeated. In April 1895, a peace agreement was reached at Shimonoseki. Under this agreement, China recognized Korea's independence and ceded to Japan both Port Arthur and the Liaotung Peninsula, which were crucial territories in Manchuria and northern China.33
In November 1895, under pressure from the tripartite intervention by Russia, France, and Germany, Japan was forced to relinquish its claim to the Liaotung Peninsula, which it had secured through the Treaty of Shimonoseki. In exchange for its withdrawal, China agreed to pay Japan an additional indemnity of 30 million taels of silver. 34
In October 1895, Queen Min of Korea was murdered, and Japanese ministers were implicated in her death. As a result, the king of Korea sought refuge in the Russian legation in February 1896, where he remained until 1897. "Henceforth, Russia became Japan's rival for control of Korea." 35
On June 9, 1896, the Lobanov-Yamagata Protocol was signed in St. Petersburg between Russia and Japan, which acknowledged Russia's position in Korea. Another agreement, the Nishi-Rosen Protocol, was signed in April 1897. Under this protocol, Russia consented to Japan's economic involvement in Korea, and both powers agreed to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. "Japan increased its military and naval preparations." 36
In January 1902, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was established, which recognized the independence of China and Korea and acknowledged Japan's special interests in Korea. Both powers agreed to maintain neutrality if the other became involved in a war and to cooperate in achieving peace if another nation entered the conflict. The agreement was set to remain in effect for five years. 37
In 1904, Russia's ongoing expansion into northern Korea and failure to withdraw from Manchuria, combined with the breakdown of Russo-Japanese negotiations, resulted in Japan severing diplomatic relations on February 6. Just two days later, on February 8, Japan launched an attack on Port Arthur, effectively trapping the Russian fleet. War was officially declared on February 10.38
According to Brendan Simms, Japan preemptively struck against Russian expansion in China by launching a devastating surprise attack on the Russian fleet at Port Arthur. Over the next year and a half, the two powers engaged in intense battles in Manchuria and at sea.39
On February 23, 1904, Japan and Korea signed a treaty that effectively made Korea a protectorate of Japan in exchange for guarantees of its territorial integrity. On May 1, the Russian forces were defeated at the Yalu River by Kuroki, a Japanese military commander. By May 30, Japan had occupied Dalny (Dairien). General Nogi, a Japanese leader, began the siege of Port Arthur. In contrast, Oyama, the commander-in-chief of the Japanese Manchurian Army, advanced north and, between August 25 and September 4, achieved victory over the Russians at Liaoyang, prompting Russia to withdraw to Mukden. In January 1905, Port Arthur surrendered. In March, Russian forces were defeated at Mukden by five combined Japanese armies led by General Oyama. 40
The Russian Tsar quickly found himself on the defensive, outmaneuvered by the well-trained and well-equipped Japanese forces. Russia had few friends, with only Montenegro declaring war on Japan in a show of Panslavist solidarity. Additionally, Russia struggled to secure international funding due to a boycott from Jewish bankers.41
The Russian army suffered a significant defeat at Mukden and the destruction of its Baltic fleet at the Battle of Tsushima in May 1905 ultimately forced St. Petersburg to seek peace. As a result, the Tsar had to evacuate Manchuria, surrender the strategically crucial Port Arthur, and acknowledge Japanese supremacy in Korea, which Tokyo would formally annex five years later. Brendan Simms argues that Russia's humiliation was nearly complete. The country was spared only the indignity of paying an indemnity to Japan. The consequences of this defeat would resonate across the globe and impact the international state system for years to come. 42
In August 1905, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was renewed for ten years. An attack by a single power on either Britain or Japan would obligate the other to assist.43
On September 5, 1905, a peace treaty was signed in Portsmouth following a conference that began on August 5, mediated by President Roosevelt. Under the terms of the treaty, Russia acknowledged Japan's primary interests in Korea, transferred the lease of the Liaodong Peninsula and the railroad to Ch'angchun to Japan, and ceded the southern half of Sakhalin to Japan. Both powers agreed to evacuate Manchuria and restore it to China. However, the treaty faced criticism in Japan due to the lack of an indemnity, resulting in riots in Tokyo.44
According to William McNeill, the unsuccessful wars, first with Japan and then on a much larger scale with the Central Powers, highlighted the existing strains within Russian society. This ultimately led to the revolution of 1905-1906, as well as the much more significant revolutions of 1917-1922.45
The geopolitical rivalry between Japan and Russia in the late 19th and early 20th centuries exemplifies a classic case of a rising power confronting a ruling power. Between 1880 and 1914, the Russian Empire was firmly established as a dominant global power, possessing one of the world's largest military and naval establishments. In terms of naval capacity, Russia ranked third globally in warship tonnage - surpassed only by Britain and France.46
Japan, by contrast, had only recently emerged from centuries of isolation. Following its opening to the West, Japan underwent rapid modernization and militarization. In 1880, its military and naval personnel numbered 71,000. However, driven by internal reforms and industrial development, this figure surged to 306,000 by 1914. Japan's naval strength similarly expanded: from a modest warship tonnage of 15,000 in 1880, it rose dramatically to 700,000 by 1914 - an extraordinary indicator of its ascendance as a rising power.47
As for China, China was not a ruling power during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Rather, it was a declining state, weakened by internal unrest and external subjugation. While Japan emerged as a rising power, asserting itself through military victories over established ruling powers, China displayed passive behavior and was often excluded from major diplomatic negotiations. Key territorial discussions over Manchuria, for example, occurred between Japan and Western powers such as Great Britain, with little to no Chinese involvement. The defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895), despite British support, further underscored China's diminished position. Earlier episodes, such as the 1854 capture of Shanghai by rebels and the 1869 occupation of Peking by British and French forces, revealed the depth of China's vulnerability. Accordingly, in analyzing the Japan-Russia power struggle, China should not be mischaracterized as the dominant or ruling power in East Asia at the time.
Endnotes
1. Hudson, G. F., The Far East in The New Cambridge Modern History, Vol. X. The Zenith of European Power: 1830-70, ed. J.P.T Bury (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1960), 685.
2. Ibid., 710.
3. Paul Kennedy, The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”: Part One, 1885-1918 in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 206.
4. Hudson, G. F., The Far East, 710.
5. Ibid..
6. Ibid., 710-711.
7. Ibid., 711.
8. William L. Langer, Japan, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 888.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid., 889.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Ibid.
20. Ibid.
21. Ibid.
22. Ibid.
23. Ibid., 890.
24. Ibid.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
27. Ibid.
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid., 891.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid.
33. A.J.P. Taylor, The Abortive Continental League, 1894-7, in The Struggle for Mastery in Europe 1848-1918 (London, UK: Oxford University Press, 1954), 355-356.
34. Langer, Japan, 891.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid., 892.
37. Ibid.
38. Ibid.
39. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 240.
40. Langer, Japan, 892.
41. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 240.
42. Ibid.
43. Langer, Japan, 892.
44. Ibid.
45. William H. McNeill, The rise of the West: Cosmopolitanism on a Global Scale 1850-1950 A.D. in The Rise of the West (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), 786.
46. Kennedy, The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”, 203.
47. Ibid.
XV. The United States v. the United Kingdom
Period – The late 19th and early 20th century
Ruling Power – The United Kingdom
Rising Power – The United States
Domain – Supremacy in the Western Hemisphere
Outcome - No war
"Across the Atlantic Ocean a new Great Power had come into existence - greater in material resources than any European Power, and greater in population than any Power except Russia, but without interest in European rivalries and wedded to isolation by an unbroken tradition." - A.J.P. Taylor in The Struggle For Mastery in Europe 1848-1918. 1954, 553.
"Of all the changes which were taking place in the global power balances during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, there can be no doubt that the most decisive one for the future was the growth of the United States." - Paul Kennedy in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1988, 242.
"... a new power had arisen in the western hemisphere, and far-sighted observers were already predicting that the baton would soon pass from Britain to the United States." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 124.
After the end of the Seven Years' War, Britain faced immediate political and strategic challenges. Britain was now responsible for a sprawling territorial empire with a new and even more vulnerable perimeter. To the west, there was a tenuous border with the Spanish and increasingly unruly Native American tribes along the Mississippi Valley. To the north, a large community of Quebecois, too numerous to be deported, represented a potential fifth column. Additionally, Britain was already heavily in debt due to the Seven Years' War, so the colonists themselves would have to bear most of the costs. 1
In 1763-1764, British North America was shaken by Pontiac's Indian revolt, which once again exposed the inadequacies of colonial defense structures. 2
In 1772, the East India Company, which London had hoped would finance imperial defense worldwide, effectively went bankrupt. In May 1773, Prime Minister Lord North sought to revive the company with the highly unpopular Tea Act. Around the same time, London abandoned its long-awaited plan for a new western colony, which was to be established in present-day West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. This colony was to be named Vandalia in honor of Queen Charlotte's Germanic ancestors. 3 On December 16, 1773, the Boston Tea Party took place when American colonists, disguised as Native Americans, boarded British ships and dumped the tea into Boston Harbor.4
In May 1774, the Falkland Islands were abandoned, partly to save money and partly to appease Spain. Brendan Simms notes that, to colonial critics, the British Empire appeared to be collapsing well before the Revolution. He adds that this perception of imperial decline actually motivated the colonists to rebel, rather than the rebellion being a cause of the decline. 5
Simms argues that the Quebec Act of 1774 was the final straw for the American colonists. This Act promised religious toleration to French Canadians, but many colonists viewed it as part of a plot against their Protestant freedoms. Their primary concern was how the Act defined the external borders of the province. It incorporated all lands between the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers - an area that had been the subject of intense debate between London and the expansionist settler lobby since 1763 - into Quebec. Many North Americans viewed this as a threat of encirclement of the thirteen colonies by an absolutist government - a resurrected New France. 6
In 1775, the colonists entered into conflict with the British government due to constitutional and strategic differences arising from British foreign policy decisions. British and patriot forces clashed at Lexington. Simms argues that the American patriots believed their survival depended on internationalizing the conflict. They aimed to persuade Europe that, as Benjamin Franklin stated, the American cause was ''the cause of all mankind [that they were] fighting for [Europe's] liberty in defending our own. 7
In 1776, Benjamin Franklin was sent to France as a diplomatic envoy. The American rebels also dispatched a representative to Vienna in an effort to prevent Britain from recruiting German mercenaries for service in America. Brendan Simms notes that at least one-third of the British troops in America were hired from princes of the Holy Roman Empire at that time. “Diplomatic engagement was one way of protecting the Revolution and securing independence.” 8
Brendan Simms notes that the American Declaration of Independence, adopted on July 4, 1776, did not establish a unitary state. He explains that, in order to wage war against Britain effectively, the United States needed to adopt some characteristics of a single state quickly. After lengthy and contentious discussions, Congress ultimately agreed on the Articles of Confederation in November 1777. 9
After declaring independence, several battles took place between the colonists and Great Britain. In June 1779, Spain entered the war against England, promising France that it would assist in recovering Gibraltar and Florida.10
The American War ended in 1783 with the signing of the Treaty of Paris. According to Brendan Simms, this event marked a significant shift in the international state system. As a result of the treaty, Britain was divided among France, Spain, and the colonists. Britain was compelled to recognize the thirteen colonies as independent states. Although Britain retained control of Gibraltar, it ceded Florida and Minorca to Spain, while France regained Louisiana. Simms adds that "the impact of the American War on European politics was dramatic. 11
According to William Langer, the period from 1783 to 1787 was a critical time in American history. The Articles of Confederation went into effect in 1781, and after gaining independence in 1783, the young nation faced a challenging economic situation. This struggle was not solely due to the specific forms of government in place. The United States was treated as a foreign entity by England and other European countries, which denied American ships access to trade in the British West Indies - an essential market for their economy before the Revolution. As a result, this led to considerable economic disruptions, producing a deep depression from 1784 to 1785. The country began to recover from this downturn as early as 1787. 12
On March 4, 1789, the First Congress convened in New York. The following month, on April 30, Washington was inaugurated as President.13
In 1792, political parties began to emerge, primarily due to differing opinions regarding Hamilton's policies. Thomas Jefferson became the leader of the Republican Party (which later evolved into the Democratic Party). He believed that Hamilton's policies favored financial and commercial interests at the expense of agrarian groups. Meanwhile, Alexander Hamilton and John Adams led the Federalist Party. 14
On November 19, Jay's Treaty was finalized, which stipulated the evacuation of border posts by 1796. It allowed trade with the British East Indies and established trade between the United States and Great Britain in terms of "reciprocal and perfect liberty." Additionally, the treaty permitted American boats with a burden of no more than 70 tons to access the West Indies. 15
On October 27, 1795, the Treaty of San Lorenzo, also known as Pinckney's Treaty, was concluded. Thomas Pinckney successfully negotiated an agreement that established the southern boundary at the 31st parallel. This treaty granted Americans the right to navigate the Mississippi River to its mouth and allowed them to have the right of deposit in New Orleans for a period of three years. 16
On March 4, 1797, John Adams was elected as President, with Thomas Jefferson serving as Vice President. 17
The conclusion of Jay's Treaty with England led to difficulties for the United States with France, which viewed the agreement as evidence of a pro-British stance by the U.S. This tension culminated in the French Directory's attempt to extort money from three American commissioners: Charles C. Pinckney, John Marshall, and Elbridge Gerry. As a result, fighting broke out at sea, prompting the creation of a naval department. George Washington was named commander of the army. A naval conflict continued in September 1800, and that same year, the Treaty of Alliance with France was abrogated. 18
In 1802, Ohio was admitted as the 17th state of the United States. 19
In June 1807, the American ship Chesapeake was attacked by the British ship Leopard, which resulted in the capture of four deserters. President Jefferson, who was opposed to going to war, responded by ordering British warships to leave American waters. He also demanded reparations and an end to the practice of impressment. 20
In May 1809, the Non-Intercourse Act permitted trade with all nations except France and Great Britain. 21
On June 8, 1812, the United States declared war against Great Britain due to issues such as impressment, violations of the three-mile territorial limit, blockade actions, and other grievances. During the first year of naval warfare, the Americans achieved surprising success. However, as the war progressed, American ships were gradually captured or blockaded. William Langer notes that although victories at sea boosted morale among the American people, they had little impact on the overall course of the war. 22
In 1814, British forces captured and burned Washington, D.C., but were ultimately repulsed at Baltimore. 23
On December 24, 1814, the Treaty of Ghent was signed, marking the end of the war. The treaty restored the status quo ante and established joint commissions to resolve disputed boundary issues between the parties. 24
In April 1817, the United States and Great Britain signed the Rush-Bagot Agreement, which restricted naval forces on the Great Lakes. 25
Between 1817 and 1818, the United States and Spain were involved in a conflict known as the Seminole War. During this period, Andrew Jackson invaded Florida and executed two British subjects. John Quincy Adams, then Secretary of State, demanded that Spain restore order in Florida or cede the territory to the United States. Unable to fulfill the demands, Spain chose to cede Florida. The treaty was signed in February 1819. 26
In December 1823, President James Monroe articulated the Monroe Doctrine in his annual message to Congress. William Langer explains that the doctrine arose from concerns about the potential intervention of the Holy Alliance, which sought to restore Spain's revolting colonies in the Americas. Additionally, Russia's aggressive stance on the northwest coast of North America contributed to the need for the doctrine. Langer also notes that the Monroe Doctrine was a reflection of trust in England, as its foreign minister, George Canning, had proposed a joint declaration with the United States. 27
In July 1828, the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad was established, marking the first public railroad in the United States. 28
In 1831, William Lloyd Garrison founded The Liberator in Boston to advocate for the unconditional emancipation of enslaved people. This marks the beginning of the abolition movement, with the establishment of the New England Anti-Slavery Society in 1831 and the American Anti-Slavery Society in 1833. 29
In 1833, Oberlin College (Ohio) opened its doors to both Black individuals and women. 30
From 1833 to 1837, southern particularists who were frustrated by Jackson's handling of the nullification crisis, those who were concerned about the leveling tendencies of Jacksonian Democracy, supporters of the bank, and industrial and financial groups formed the Whig Party. 31
In 1836, the independent Republic of Texas was established. The American colonization of Texas began in 1821 when Stephen Austin obtained a land grant on the condition that he settle a certain number of families there. This led to similar grants being made to other empresarios, which resulted in a significant influx of American settlers. However, beginning around 1830, difficulties arose. The decisive battle was fought at San Jacinto in April 1836, after which the Republic of Texas was officially established. 32
Between 1837 and 1842, a crisis emerged between the United States and Canada. In December 1837, an American steamer serving Canadian rebels was seized by Canadian militia on the American side of the Niagara River, resulting in the death of an American citizen. Alexander McLeod, a Canadian, claimed responsibility for the killing and was subsequently arrested and tried in New York courts. His acquittal helped prevent serious tensions between the United States and the United Kingdom. 33
Additionally, disputes over the northeastern boundary led to the Aroostook County War, which occurred from 1838 to 1839. The boundary issues were ultimately resolved with the Webster-Ashburton Treaty in August 1842. 34
In March 1845, President John Tyler facilitated the annexation of Texas through a joint resolution passed by the United States Congress. 35
On June 15, 1846, the Oregon Treaty was signed with the United Kingdom. The two countries had long claimed the Oregon Country, situated between the latitudes of 42° and 54°40', although the primary area of dispute was between the Columbia River and the 49th parallel. The Treaty of Joint Occupation of 1818 had been renewed in 1827, with a provision allowing either party to terminate it with a year's notice. British interest in the Oregon Country was primarily focused on the fur trade, which was dominated after 1821 by the Hudson's Bay Company. By the early 1840s, a significant migration of American farmers to the Willamette Valley was underway, transforming the Anglo-American rivalry into one between fur traders and settlers. The treaty established the 49th parallel as the boundary on the mainland, extending to the middle of the channel leading to the ocean. 36
In 1846, war broke out between the United States and Mexico, lasting until 1848. William Langer suggests that the United States had numerous grievances against Mexico, while Mexico was still unable to forgive the United States for the annexation of Texas. The eleventh president of the United States, James Polk, was determined to acquire New Mexico, preferably through peaceful negotiations. However, when Slidell's mission to Mexico to purchase that territory failed, Polk was prepared for war. 37
By sending American troops into the disputed area between the Nueces and Rio Grande rivers, he sparked a skirmish that allowed him to claim that Mexico had "shed American blood on American soil." An army under Zachary Taylor invaded Mexico, winning battles at Palo Alto, Resaca de la Palma, and taking Monterey, culminating in a victory at Buena Vista. Mexico City was captured on September 14, 1847. Meanwhile, an American squadron seized the ports of California. 38
On February 2, 1848, the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo was signed, officially bringing the war between Mexico and the United States to a close. As part of the agreement, Mexico relinquished its claims to Texas, recognized the Rio Grande as the boundary, and ceded the territories of New Mexico and California to the United States. In return, the U.S. paid Mexico $15 million and took on American claims against Mexico. 39
On July 19, 1848, the first Women's Rights Convention was held in Seneca Falls, New York. 40
In 1850, a compromise was reached, resulting in California's admission as a free state. 41
In October 1854, the American ministers to England, France, and Spain met in Ostend to discuss the most effective means of acquiring Cuba. They drafted a manifesto stating that if Spain refused to sell Cuba, the United States would be justified in taking it by force. Langer notes that this declaration caused significant excitement in free states. 42
Between January and May of 1861, Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Texas, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and North Carolina seceded from the Union. 43
Between 1861 and 1865, the Civil War erupted in the United States. The conflict began after the Confederates seized federal funds and property in the South. On April 10, 1861, they demanded the evacuation of Fort Sumter in Charleston Harbor. Major Anderson, who was in command of the fort, refused to surrender unconditionally. Consequently, General Beauregard bombarded the fort on April 12-13, just as a Union relief expedition was approaching. On April 5, then-President Abraham Lincoln called for 75,000 volunteers to serve for three months and summoned Congress to convene on July 4. By May 3, he appealed for 42,000 men to serve for three years or for the duration of the war. At that time, there was a general expectation of a short conflict. The North had immense advantages, with 23 states and a population of nearly 23 million, compared to the 11 Confederate states, which had about 5 million white residents. The North also possessed significant financial strength, manufacturing capabilities, and more extensive railway networks. In contrast, the South was largely dependent on cotton production and was severely hampered by the blockade of Confederate ports. From the start, the South found itself on the defensive. 44
On May 13, 1861, the United Kingdom recognized the Confederate States as belligerents. 45
The first battle occurred at Bull Run on July 21. By that time, there were approximately 30,000 inexperienced troops in and around Washington, under the command of General Winfield Scott. Across the Potomac, 25,000 Confederates led by General Beauregard were positioned near the Manassas railway junction. Another Confederate force, commanded by General Joseph E. Johnston, was located in the Shenandoah Valley, near Harper's Ferry. On July 4, Congress convened and demanded action. General Patterson was dispatched to contain Johnston's forces, while General Irvin MacDowell reluctantly advanced against Beauregard. However, Johnston's army managed to escape and join Beauregard's forces. At the Battle of Bull Run, the Federal army was defeated and retreated to Washington in a disorganized manner. William Langer explains that the impact of the battle was to awaken the Unionists and usher in a period of more extensive and systematic preparation for the war. 46
The naval operations occurred between 1861 and 1862. In August 1861, a joint naval and military expedition was launched to establish an effective blockade of the southern coasts and to prevent privateering. The goal was to capture key coastal positions. 47
After several battles and military campaigns that lasted until 1865, the Confederate armies found themselves trapped between Brigadier General Ulysses Grant in the north and General William Sherman in the south. Deprived of food supplies and unable to withstand the pressure, they faced inevitable defeat. General Philip Sheridan won the Battle of Five Forks, which led to the evacuation of Petersburg and the eventual surrender of Richmond. Grant then pursued General Robert E. Lee and forced his surrender. Jefferson Davis, the president of the Confederacy, fled to Georgia but was captured on May 10 and subsequently imprisoned. 48 B. H. Liddell Hart notes that "the American Civil War was the first large-scale war of the industrial age, and also the first between modern democracies." 49
In February 1865, a resolution was introduced in Congress to submit the Thirteenth Amendment to the states, which prohibited slavery within the United States. Two-thirds of the states ratified the amendment by December 18. 50
On April 14, 1865, President Abraham Lincoln was assassinated, and Vice President Andrew Johnson succeeded him. 51
On March 30, 1867, the United States acquired Alaska for $7.2 million.52 Alaska was administered independently by the Russian America Company, which was founded in 1799. J.M.K. Vyvyan notes that over time, the authorities in St. Petersburg began to find the returns from the company's fur trade unprofitable and concluded that Alaska posed too great a strategic liability. As a result, proposals for cession were made to the United States after the Crimean War, and the territory was ultimately sold. J.M.K adds that "... Alaska could have served as a bridge between the two great nations of the future, Russia and America." 53
In May 1871, the Treaty of Washington was signed with the United Kingdom. This treaty included provisions for the German Emperor to resolve the dispute over the northwest boundary, which was ultimately decided in favor of the United States in October 1872. It also provided for a partial settlement of the fishery dispute, known as the Halifax award, which in 1877 granted the United Kingdom $5.5 million. However, this part of the treaty was abrogated by the United States in 1883. Additionally, the treaty established an international commission to settle the Alabama claims in Geneva. In August 1872, Geneva awarded $15.5 million to the United States as compensation for the direct damages caused by the Alabama and other Confederate cruisers. 54
In 1876, Johns Hopkins University opened in Baltimore as the first true graduate school in the United States. William Langer noted that it significantly advanced the field of study. 55
In 1871, the increasing immigration of Chinese, especially in California, led to a race riots as early as 1871. The formation of a workingman's party in that state in 1877 brought the matter into prominence and to the attention of Congress. The Act of 1882 barred Chinese laborers from entering the United States for a period of ten years. In 1902, the exclusion was made perpetual, and the same act prohibited the immigration of Chinese to the United States from Hawaii and the Philippines. In 1885, an act of Congress prohibited the entrance of all laborers under contract. 56
On January 17, 1893, a provisional government was established with the support of the American minister, effectively replacing the Hawaiian monarchy. In February, a treaty was signed to annex Hawaii to the United States, but the Senate failed to ratify it. When President Cleveland took office, he promptly withdrew the treaty and sent a commissioner to the islands to investigate the situation. Although he made efforts to restore the monarchy, he was unsuccessful and ultimately recognized the republic that had been established in the meantime. 57
In June 1897, President McKinley arranged a new treaty of annexation, but it was again defeated in the Senate. Finally, on July 7, 1898, Hawaii was annexed by a joint resolution passed by both houses of Congress. 58
In 1893, a wave of panic swept through the United States, triggered by a depression that had begun to affect the Western world in 1890. This downturn was triggered by the collapse of the banking house of Baring, which was caused by poor investments in Argentina. As a result, British investors started selling their American securities, significantly impacting the outflow of gold from the country. Overexpansion in the railroad industry, fueled by British capital, had led to a boom that ultimately collapsed when the railroads could no longer meet their financial obligations. 59
In May 1895, a boundary dispute arose between the United States and the United Kingdom over Venezuela. When the United Kingdom refused to submit the disputed boundary between Venezuela and British Guiana to arbitration, then Secretary of State Olney sent a note to the UK on July 20, 1895. In the note, he asserted that any forcible adjustment of the boundary by the United Kingdom would violate the Monroe Doctrine. He stated that the only way to resolve the dispute was through arbitration. 60
In response, Lord Salisbury replied on November 26, rejecting arbitration and denying that the Monroe Doctrine applied to the dispute. However, in February 1897, the United Kingdom and the United States signed a treaty agreeing to submit the dispute to arbitration. The awards issued in 1899 largely favored the British position. 61
In 1898, the Spanish-American War broke out. The insurrection in Cuba, which began in 1895, was met with increasingly inhumane treatment of the rebels, drawing sympathy from various groups in the United States. 62
In February 1898, the U.S.S. Maine was mysteriously destroyed in Havana Harbor, intensifying anti-Spanish sentiment in the United States. On April 11, President McKinley sent a war message to Congress, requesting authorization for military intervention. Congress granted this authority but explicitly stated that it did not intend to annex Cuba. 63
The war against Spain was officially declared on April 24-25, 1898. The peace treaty was signed in Paris on December 10 of the same year. As a result of the treaty, Spain withdrew from Cuba and ceded Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines to the United States. Spain received $20 million in exchange for the Philippines. William Langer argues that "the larger effect of the war was to establish the United States as a world power and to extend the sphere of her political interests and contacts." 64
In March 1902, the Platt Amendment was adopted as part of the Army Appropriation Bill, concerning Cuba. The Cuban Constitutional Convention incorporated this amendment into the Cuban constitution as a condition for the United States' withdrawal from the island. Under the amendment, Cuba agreed not to impair its independence through treaties with foreign powers and to allow American intervention for the protection of Cuban independence. Additionally, Cuba was required to sell or lease land to the United States for naval or coaling stations. It was prohibited from assuming public debt beyond its ability to repay it with ordinary revenue. 65
In that same year, the Supreme Court ruled that a territory could fall under the jurisdiction of the United States without being officially incorporated into the country. This meant that the Constitution did not apply in its entirety to all lands where the United States exerted its sovereignty. William Langer notes that "this enabled the United States to develop a distinctive colonial policy and to enact legislation for the government of backward peoples, where a degree of paternalism was necessary. 66
The United States and the United Kingdom signed the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty in 1850, which established that any Isthmian canal constructed should be jointly controlled, not fortified, and neutralized for the service of all nations. In the later years of the century, the United States sought to abrogate this treaty. In February 1900, the First Hay-Pauncefote Treaty was negotiated but was rejected by the United Kingdom. In December 1901, however, the Senate ratified the Second Hay-Pauncefote Treaty, which abrogated the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty and allowed for American construction and control of a canal, with its neutrality maintained under U.S. supervision. After much debate regarding the canal's route, Congress authorized the president on June 28, 1902, to construct a canal across Panama, provided he could acquire the rights of the New Panama Canal Company for $40 million and gain perpetual control over the canal zone from Colombia. If he failed to do so, he was to construct the canal via the Nicaragua route, as outlined in the earlier Spooner Bill. 67
On January 22, 1903, the Hay-Herrán Convention was signed with Colombia, which provided for the establishment of a canal zone. Although the U.S. Senate ratified the agreement, the Colombian Senate adjourned without ratifying it on October 31. On November 3, Panama revolted and declared its independence from Colombia. U.S. ships prevented Colombian troops from landing in Panama, and on November 6, the United States recognized Panama's independence. Following this, on November 18, the Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty was signed between the United States and Panama. This treaty granted the United States the use of a ten-mile-wide canal zone, transferred ownership of the New Panama Canal Company and the Panama Railroad Company to the United States. It stipulated a payment of $10 million in gold to Panama, along with an annual annuity of $250,000. The United States guaranteed the neutrality of the canal and, in return, was granted the right to fortify it. 68 The Panama Canal was officially opened on June 15, 1914.69
In 1902, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy blockaded five of Venezuela's ports because Venezuela refused to meet its debt obligations. After the U.S. State Department intervened and Venezuelan dictator Castro expressed a willingness to submit the European claims to mediation, the European powers agreed to arbitrate the dispute. The blockade was lifted in February 1903, and the Hague Tribunal established a mixed commission to evaluate the claims. 70
The Dominican Republic faced a debt situation similar to that of Venezuela concerning European powers. On December 2, 1904, President Theodore Roosevelt articulated the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. This was prompted by the Dominican Republic's debt problem and the pressure from European countries to ensure payment. Roosevelt stated that ongoing misconduct by nations in the Western Hemisphere might compel the United States, under the Monroe Doctrine, to exercise an international police power as a means to prevent European intervention. As a result of this doctrine, the United States intervened in Santo Domingo and unofficially collected customs duties. The American administration left Santo Domingo on July 31, 1907.71
The unsettled conditions in Nicaragua and Honduras in 1911 prompted then-Secretary of State Philander C. Knox to attempt to emulate Roosevelt's actions in Santo Domingo. He negotiated agreements with both countries that provided for loans from American bankers, the appointment of an American customs receiver, and the customs revenues pledged as security for the loans. When the Senate withheld ratification, American Marines were deployed to Nicaragua in August 1912, and fiscal affairs were turned over to an American collector. The Nicaraguan Bank came under the control of New York bankers, and the Nicaraguan government was placed on a monthly allowance. Knox also negotiated a treaty with Nicaragua that granted the United States the right of way for an interoceanic canal, a naval base on the Gulf of Fonseca, and long-term leases over the Great and Little Corn Islands. 72
In 1912, American troops were concentrated on the Mexican border, and the revolutionary Madero government of Mexico was warned that it would be held accountable for any loss of life and property. 73
The interests of the United States and Britain frequently clashed from the moment of American independence. The emergence of an independent United States was one of the most significant setbacks to Britain's imperial ambitions. From the outset, the U.S. sought to defend itself against renewed British influence in the Western Hemisphere. This determination became clear in the late 19th century, when the U.S. attempted to internationalize the conflict in order to pressure Britain into retreating from the region. Although the initial motivation was self-defense, disputes with Spain and other powers revealed that Washington's broader goal was to block all European great powers from establishing a presence in the Americas. The Monroe Doctrine explicitly expressed this ambition, signaling that the United States opposed any new European intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Driven by self-preservation, the U.S. soon began to demonstrate its own aspirations of becoming a great power.
Growing military ambitions could not be realized without economic ascendancy. In 1800, the United Kingdom accounted for about 4.3% of global manufacturing output, while the United States held only 0.8%. By 1900, however, the U.S. had risen to 23.6%, surpassing Britain's 18.5%, signaling the industrial shift in global leadership.74
Although U.S. ambitions during its rise often conflicted with British interests, these tensions never escalated into direct conflict. The first significant dispute occurred in the 1890s over the Venezuelan boundary crisis. The United Kingdom refused to submit the disputed boundary between Venezuela and British Guiana to arbitration, prompting Washington to demand arbitration. The second major conflict arose when the United States sought to abrogate the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty with the United Kingdom. Despite the United Kingdom's rejection, the U.S. Senate still ratified the new treaty. Ultimately, this struggle did not lead to war.
Endnotes
1. Brendan Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 115-116.
2. Ibid., 115.
3. Ibid., 120.
4. William L. Langer, The American Revolution, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 518.
5. Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, 120.
6. Ibid., 120-121.
7. Ibid., 121.
8. Ibid., 121-122.
9. Ibid., 122.
10. Langer, The American Revolution, 521.
11. Simms, Revolutions, 1756-1813, 124.
12. Langer, The American Revolution, 522.
13. William L. Langer, North America: 1. The United States, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 764.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid., 766.
16. Ibid.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid.
19. Ibid.
20. Ibid., 768.
21. Ibid., 769.
22. Ibid.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid.
25. Ibid., 770.
26. Ibid.
27. Ibid., 770-771.
28. Ibid., 771.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid., 772.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid.
33. Ibid., 772-773.
34. Ibid., 773.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid.
37. Ibid.
38. Ibid.
39. Ibid., 774.
40. Ibid.
41.Ibid.
42. Ibid., 775.
43. Ibid.
44. Ibid., 776.
45. Ibid.
46. Ibid.
47. Ibid.
48. Ibid., 779
49. B. H. Liddell Hart, Armed Forces and The Art of War: Armies, in The New Cambridge Modern History, Volume X: The Zenith of European Power, 1830-70, ed. J.P.T. Bury (London: The Syndics of the Cambridge University Press, 1960), 327.
50. Langer, North America: 1. The United States, 780.
51. Ibid.
52. Ibid., 781.
53. J.M.K Vyvyan, Russia in Europe and Asia, in The New Cambridge Modern History, Volume X: The Zenith of European Power, 1830-70, ed. J.P.T. Bury (London: The Syndics of the Cambridge University Press, 1960), 384.
54. Langer, North America: 1. The United States, 781.
55. Ibid., 782.
56. Ibid., 783.
57. Ibid., 786.
58. Ibid.
59. Ibid.
60. Ibid.
61. Ibid.
62. Ibid., 787.
63. Ibid.
64. Ibid.
65. Ibid., 788.
66. Ibid.
67. Ibid.
68. Ibid.
69. Ibid., 791
70. Ibid., 788.
71. Ibid., 788-789.
72. Ibid., 790.
73. Ibid.
74. Paul Kennedy, Industrialization and Shifting Global Balances, 1815-1885, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1988), 149.
XVI. German Empire v. the United Kingdom
Period – The late 19th and early 20th century
Ruling Power – The United Kingdom (later joined by France & Russia)
Rising Power – German Empire (supported by Austria-Hungary)
Domain – Transcontinental dominance
Outcome - War
"Indeed, the really impressive achievements of human engineering concentrated in the military sphere during the nineteenth century; and here Germany's lead was conspicuous." - William H. McNeill in The Rise of The West, 1963, 742.
"The main worry, however, was Germany, which had shown unconcealed sympathy for the Boers and whose naval ambitions were seen as a direct challenge to British maritime supremacy. Sir Edward Grey, soon to be Foreign Secretary, remarked in January 1903 that Berlin was now 'our worst enemy and our greatest danger.' " - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 237.
As mentioned in the previous case, the North German Confederation v. France, there was growing public demand for the unification of North and South Germany. Bismarck negotiated separately with each state, making essential concessions. In January 1871, the German Empire was established, with Bismarck serving as Chancellor and William I as the German Emperor.1 According to Paul Kennedy, after establishing the empire, Bismarck found it safer to support the creation of the Three Emperors' League in 1873. This quasi-alliance emphasized the ideological solidarity of the eastern monarchies while also easing some of the Austro-Russian conflicts of interest in the Balkans.2
At home, Bismarck waged a cultural war against German Catholics with the support of anti-clerical liberals. Priests were imprisoned, Catholic publications were targeted, and an atmosphere of fear and intimidation poisoned both parliament and the public sphere.3
In January 1876, the Imperial Bank (Reichsbank) was established in Germany, intended to play a significant role in the nation's economic development.4
In July 1879, following a period of free trade, Germany implemented the Tariff Law. German industry had been significantly affected by the financial crisis of 1873 and the subsequent depression, as well as by the challenges in agriculture caused by foreign competition. As a result, both industrialists and landowners began to speak out against free trade. The government was also influenced to return to protectionism, as it relied on customs and excise duties for its income and constantly needed funds.5
In October 1879, Germany and Austria signed an alliance treaty, concluded for five years but regularly renewed. This alliance remained in force until 1918 and was the foundation of Bismarck's alliance system. The provision of the treaty stipulated that if Russia attacked either party, the other should come to its assistance with all forces. If some other power attacked either, the other was obliged to preserve at least neutrality. Furthermore, if Russia supported some other power, each ally was required to aid the other. The alliance was the result of a period of tension between Germany and Russia.6
In June 1881, the Three Emperors' League was reestablished between Germany, Austria, and Russia and renewed in 1884 for three years.7
On May 20, 1882, the Triple Alliance was established between Germany, Austria, and Italy. The alliance was initially concluded for five years and was renewed at intervals until 1915. The terms of the alliance were as follows: if France attacked Italy without provocation, Germany and Austria were to assist Italy. Conversely, if France attacked Germany, Italy was to come to Germany's aid. Additionally, if one or more members of the alliance were attacked or involved in a war with two or more great powers, the remaining member(s) of the alliance were obligated to support the affected party or parties.8 At this time, Britain was preoccupied with consolidating its colonial influence.
In July of 1882, the British fleet conducted a bombardment of Alexandria. Subsequently, on September 13, British forces achieved a decisive victory against the Egyptians in the Battle of Tel-el-Kabir, leading to the occupation of Egypt. 9
Anglo-German relations became strained in the early 1880s as the German Empire began to pursue overseas colonial expansion. The creation of the German Colonial Society in 1882, Bismarck's shift toward imperialism, and the establishment of a German settlement at Angra Pequena in Southwest Africa alarmed Britain. Britain opposed this latest move by the German Empire, and over the next two years, tensions grew, extending to disputes over East Africa, the Cameroons, and other regions. Bismarck formed a loose understanding with France, particularly regarding Egypt, which pressured Britain to recognize Germany as a colonial power. 10
In February 1884, Britain agreed with Portugal to recognize its rights to territory at the mouth of the Congo River. Germany and France protested this agreement. 11
Between 1884 and 1885, the Berlin Conference on African Affairs was held, organized by Bismarck and Jules Ferry from France. Fourteen nations, including the United States, agreed to work towards the suppression of slavery and the slave trade. They also declared the complete freedom of commerce in the Congo basin and ensured freedom of navigation on the Congo and Niger rivers, as well as their tributaries. 12
In September 1885, Bulgarian nationalists proclaimed the unification of Eastern Rumelia with Bulgaria. This move alarmed Russia, as the Bulgarian national movement was acting independently from Russian control. By late 1886 and early 1887, Austria-Hungary and Russia found themselves on the verge of conflict over competing ambitions in Bulgaria. Bismarck mediated between the two powers, persuading Russia to back down and accept the results of the Bulgarian parliament's elections. Over the next two years, the aftermath of the Bulgarian crisis fundamentally changed the landscape of European geopolitics. 13
Brendan Simms notes that the Bulgarian crisis led to increased public and parliamentary criticism of Bismarck's foreign policy in Germany. There were growing calls for preemptive strikes against Russia. Instead, in mid-June 1887, Bismarck negotiated a defensive Reinsurance Treaty with the Tsar. Through this agreement, Bismarck allowed Russia to gain control over the Straits. However, the treaty was unpopular in both countries, prompting both Bismarck and the Tsar to keep its existence a secret. In 1888, the terms of the Dual Alliance were published, revealing that Bismarck had made contradictory promises to both Russia and Austria. 14
In March 1890, Bismarck resigned from his position. Count von Caprivi was appointed as the new chancellor.15
In 1891, Russia began constructing the Trans-Siberian Railway with funding from France. Various naval exchanges and diplomatic visits ultimately led to the establishment of a full defensive alliance in 1893, followed by a military convention in January 1894. The growing Franco-Russian rapprochement raised concerns in both Britain and Germany. 16
Britain began military preparations against the possibility of a Franco-Russian alliance before it was formally established. In 1889, the Royal Navy adopted the Two-Power Standard, requiring that Britain maintain a fleet at least equal in strength to the next two largest navies combined. In Germany, early contingency planning against France took shape between 1891 and 1892. Germany's plan assumed that France would need to be defeated swiftly in the event of war, enabling Germany to turn its full attention to Russia before the latter could complete its mobilization, and thereby offset the combined numerical strength of a two-front enemy coalition.17
In addition to external security threats, Germany was grappling with internal issues, including tensions among various groups such as Catholics and socialists. To address these internal challenges, Chancellor Leo von Caprivi aimed to unite as many parties and groups as possible behind the government. For instance, in 1891, the government conceded to demands from the Catholic Centre Party regarding concessions on education in order to pass an important army bill. However, when the Kaiser hesitated in response to a Protestant backlash, Caprivi decided to resign, citing the need for domestic unity to ensure security. Another crisis emerged in March 1895 when the Prussian war minister and the Foreign Secretary once again argued that appeasing the Centre Party was essential to secure approval for the army estimates. 18
After Caprivi's resignation in 1894, Prince Chlodwig zu Hohenlohe-Schillingsfurst became the new Chancellor and served until 1900. 19
In 1894, Russia authorized a substantial increase in defense spending to match Germany's military investments. 20
Wilhelm was worried about the rise of new power centers outside of Europe. In 1895, he proposed the idea of a continental alliance between Germany, France, and Russia to counter the influence of the Anglo-Saxon powers, namely Britain and the United States. In September 1896, during a meeting with the tsar in Breslau, the Kaiser even suggested that the entire European continent should come together to balance the increasing power of Washington.21
According to William Langer, the first violent outbreak of ‘popular hostility’ between Germany and Britain occurred on January 3, 1896, during the Kruger Telegram episode. 22 On January 3, 1896, the President of the South African Republic (Transvaal) successfully repelled the Jameson Raid, which Dr. Jameson had led. When news of the raid reached Berlin, Emperor Wilhelm II assumed that the British government had sanctioned the operation. In response, he suggested strong measures, including the possibility of military intervention; however, no such intervention occurred. The German Emperor sent a telegram to the President congratulating him on his success in repelling the raid, reflecting Germany's interest in the Transvaal. 23 According to Brendan Simms, "the Germans began to take a keen interest in the affairs of South Africa more generally." 24 The governments of Germany and Britain maintained their composure; however, public opinion on both sides became so heated that a policy of friendship appeared nearly impossible for the future.25
In mid-January 1896, Wilhelm II proclaimed that the German Empire had become a world empire. A year later, he announced a naval program under the leadership of Admiral Tirpitz, followed by the first naval law in 1898.26
In 1897, Germany took control of the Chinese port of Kiaochow. The following year, in 1898, Kaiser Wilhelm II made a highly publicized visit to the Ottoman Empire, with a stop in Palestine. Soon after, a German company was commissioned to construct a railway that would connect Berlin to Baghdad and extend to the Gulf, marking the beginning of the 'Berlin-Baghdad Railway.' Brendan Simms explains that the main purpose of this global maneuvering was to intimidate London into allying against Paris and St. Petersburg. "In essence, Weltpolitik was not a bid for world domination but a cry for help in Europe." 27
In Britain, Germany's actions increased the sense of alarm that had been growing since the Russo-French rapprochement. The British Empire already faced threats from various fronts: the tsar in Central Asia and the Far East, the French in Sudan, the Boers in South Africa, and the United States across the Americas. After the publication of Kruger's Telegram, the announcement of Tirpitz's naval program in 1897 heightened tensions even further. 28
In August 1898, a secret agreement was signed between Britain and Germany. Berlin abandoned the Boers, leaving them to their fate, in exchange for an option on Portugal's African colonies. 29
In 1899, tensions between Britain and the German Empire over South Africa escalated into war. South Africa was of vital geopolitical importance not only because of its mineral wealth, including the famed gold and diamond deposits, but also because it served as the crucial hinterland for the naval base in Durban, which defended the route to India. Britain was determined not to allow this strategic location to fall into the hands of another European power, especially Germany, which had already established territories to the northeast (present-day Tanzania) and northwest (present-day Namibia). Anticipating potential annexation, Kruger decided to take action before it could happen. In October 1899, he launched a swift attack into the Cape Province. It required a significant effort by London and the rest of the empire to push him back.30
In January 1900, acute tensions emerged between Britain and Germany after Britain stopped the German ship Bundesrath on insufficient suspicion that the ship was carrying contraband. Ultimately, the British government conceded.31 In that same year, New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania, and South Australia united to form a federation. Simms highlights that this development did not arise from a surge of separatist nationalism; instead, it demonstrated a commitment to maintaining the British connection as a source of security or a last resort. Additionally, there was a recognition that the responsibility for imperial defense needed to be shared more equally among them. “Britain was to remain the global sheriff, but Australia would serve as her deputy in the South Pacific.” 32
Over the past two decades, Britain had come to believe that its global status depended on the empire. In January 1901, Lord Curzon, the viceroy of India, remarked that as long as Britain ruled India, it would remain the greatest power in the world. However, if Britain lost India, it would immediately drop to the status of a third-rate power. The Army Reform Bill of 1901 was a step in this direction. Brendan Simms argues that Britain's primary concern was now Germany, which had openly shown sympathy for the Boers in South Africa. Germany's naval ambitions were perceived as a direct challenge to British maritime supremacy. 33
Germany's global ambitions were causing significant anxiety in the United States. During the Spanish-American War, a large German squadron appeared in Manila Bay, raising fears about Germany's intentions in the Pacific. Beginning in 1901, German ships also started to patrol the Caribbean and South Atlantic. In 1902, German vessels, as part of an international force sent to collect unpaid debts, shelled a location, prompting concerns in the U.S. about Germany seeking territorial expansion at America's expense.34
In 1904, Washington was shocked by the news that Germany had demanded the cession of a port in Santo Domingo. Roosevelt emphasized the extreme importance of keeping Germany out of his hemisphere.35
Britain and France were alarmed by the continued rise of German power. In April 1904, they established the Entente Cordiale, which was more of an understanding than a formal military alliance. The agreement primarily involved a colonial arrangement: Morocco came under French control, while France relinquished its claims to Egypt. The news of this Franco-British rapprochement caused concern in Berlin. In 1905, the German general staff finalized the Schlieffen Plan, which was designed to help Germany address the threat of encirclement.36
In March 1905, the Kaiser arrived in Tangier and called for an international conference to protect the integrity of Morocco, which the French were gradually transforming into a protectorate. Facing a lack of effective support from Russia and not yet able to rely on Britain, France publicly backed down in June 1905.37
In May 1906, the German government decided to increase the tonnage of battleships in its naval program. They also decided to add six cruisers to the program and to widen the Kiel Canal to accommodate the anticipated Dreadnought-class ships.38
In late 1907, Britain and Russia reached an agreement regarding Persia, dividing it into a Russian zone of influence in the north, a British zone in the south, and a neutral area in the middle. An agreement was reached on Tibet and Afghanistan. 39
On May 16, 1907, the Pact of Cartagena was signed between Great Britain, France, and Spain. This new agreement aimed to maintain the status quo in the Mediterranean and the parts of the Atlantic that border Europe and Africa. In July of the same year, the Triple Alliance between Germany, Austria, and Italy was renewed for 6 years. 40
On April 23, 1908, the Baltic and North Sea Conventions were made. The first convention was between Germany, Sweden, Denmark, and Russia. The second convention was between Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Both conventions included provisions for the maintenance of the status quo on the shores of the two seas and consultation between the signatories in case the status quo was threatened. 41
In 1908, the Reichstag passed a new bill for increased naval spending, which was proposed in 1907. This rise in naval expenditure by Germany led to the extensive British Dreadnought program initiated in February 1909.42
In 1909, British intelligence reports indicating that the Germans were advancing in naval construction were made public. These reports were fueled by rampant rumors that German spies were observing East Anglia and the south coast. In October of that year, the British government established the Secret Service Bureau specifically to address concerns about German espionage. 43
In May 1911, the French disrupted the delicate balance in Morocco by occupying Fez, following a request from the Sultan and in response to rising civil unrest. In reaction, Berlin demanded "compensation" for the French acquisition. At the beginning of July, the German armored cruiser Panther arrived off the Moroccan coast near Agadir to assert this demand. However, this action only strengthened the alliance between Paris and London. By early November, Germany had no choice but to accept a French protectorate in Morocco, in exchange for a token piece of the French Congo.44
On July 23, 1912, the British Admiralty decided to withdraw battleships from the Mediterranean Sea and concentrate them in the North Sea due to the increasing naval strength of Germany.45
In December 1912, Chief of the General Staff von Moltke noted that enemies surrounded Germany on three sides, and the relative military balance against Russia was steadily deteriorating due to Germany's increased armaments and railway construction. During a Crown Council meeting in 1912, the Kaiser and his advisers dismissed the idea of launching a preemptive attack. However, they agreed that war was 'inevitable' in the long run, and that the sooner it occurred, the better.46
Between 1912 and 1913, two successive Balkan Wars occurred in Southeastern Europe. The First Balkan War saw Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro unite against the Ottoman Empire.47 However, in the Second Balkan War, former allies turned against Bulgaria. These conflicts not only destabilized the Balkan region but also heightened tensions across Europe. 48
On October 18, 1913, Austria issued an ultimatum to Serbia, demanding the evacuation of Albania within eight days. The Serbs complied. On October 30, an Austro-Italian note was sent to Greece, insisting on the evacuation of southern Albania by December 31. In December, Grey, the British Foreign Secretary, proposed a division of disputed southern Albania between Greece and Albania, with compensation to Greece in the form of the Aegean Islands. This proposal was ultimately accepted; however, the Greeks did not evacuate until April 27, 1914. Afterward, disputes continued regarding the Aegean Islands. By June 1914, there was a significant risk of war between Greece and Turkey.49
On June 24, Austria submitted a memorandum to Germany regarding the Balkan situation that emerged after the Treaty of Bucharest. Austria preferred an alliance with Bulgaria and Turkey to prevent the reformation of the Balkan League under Russian and French influence. In contrast, the Germans had been urging Austria to reconcile with Serbia, Romania, and Greece. As a result, the two allies had drifted significantly apart on this fundamental issue.50
On June 15, 1914, an agreement between the Anglo-German nations was initiated. This accord resolved the Baghdad Railway issue, with the Germans promising not to extend the railway line south of Basra and acknowledging England's dominant interests in Euphrates shipping. William Langer notes that "the agreement reflected a real desire on both sides to remove many outstanding colonial difficulties." 51
On June 28, 1914, Gavrilo Princip, a young Bosnian nationalist and Serbian agent, assassinated Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary in Sarajevo. William Langer notes that the Serbian government was aware of the assassination plot but did little to prevent it or to warn the Austrian government. Although Austria was convinced of Serbia's involvement, it aimed to build a strong case and sent a legal expert to Sarajevo to gather evidence. 52
On June 5, an Austro-Hungarian mission was sent to Berlin. Both the emperor and the chancellor promised their support and urged that actions be taken while world opinion was still favorable. On July 7, the Austrian crown council convened. While most members favored going to war against Serbia, this approach was opposed by Hungarian Premier Count Tisza, who insisted on pursuing diplomatic measures to avoid broader European complications. 53
On July 23, Austria issued a 48 hours ultimatum to Belgrade, demanding the suppression of publications hostile to Austria, the dissolution of patriotic organizations engaged in anti-Austrian propaganda, the dismissal of officials accused by Austria of promoting propaganda, the arrest of two Serbian officials known to be involved in the assassination, as well as explanations and apologies from Serbia. 54
On July 25, Serbia received assurances from Russia that it would take military action against Austria if Austria attacked Serbia. With this hope, Serbia rejected a crucial point of the Austrian ultimatum. On July 28, Austria declared war on Serbia, and Belgrade was bombarded the following day. Germany urged the occupation of Belgrade as a strategic move. Germany was willing to promise not to seize French territories in Europe or Belgian territory if England would remain neutral, but this offer was rejected. 55
Despite numerous warnings from Germany, the Tsar initiated the general mobilization of the Russian army. France also began its mobilization on August 1. That same day, Germany declared war on Russia. On August 2, the British cabinet agreed to provide France with assurances to protect its coast against potential German attacks. 56
Germany then began its invasion of Luxembourg and submitted a demand to Belgium for permission to cross Belgian territory in exchange for maintaining Belgian integrity. Belgium rejected this demand. On August 3, Germany declared war on France, and on August 4, Britain declared war on Germany. On August 6, Austria declared war on Russia. 57
By the end of 1915, German forces had successfully eliminated Serbia. In the same year, they pushed Russian troops back hundreds of miles. Following this, the Germans began to engage in fierce battles on the Western Front against British and French forces. This culminated in a series of massive offensives, including the significant Verdun campaign of 1916. Japan joined the Entente shortly after the war broke out and focused primarily on seizing Germany's possessions in the Pacific. Italy, while still formally committed to the Triple Alliance, found that its territorial ambitions could only be fulfilled at Austria's expense. Romania entered the war against Austria-Hungary with hopes of annexing Transylvania. However, Romanian forces were defeated by the Germans in the summer of 1916 and were forced to retreat from nearly the entire country.58
Berlin supported Irish nationalists by supplying arms for an insurrection against British rule during Easter in 1916. In Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary encouraged political and ethnic fragmentation by backing the Union for Liberation of Ukraine and agreeing to the establishment of a Polish state - albeit under German control - in August 1916. They generally supported various subversive movements within Russia. Across the Atlantic, Germany aimed to bog down the United States through a program of subversion and infiltration. A covert operation was launched to plant bombs in factories and on ships supplying arms to the Allied war effort. However, very little damage was inflicted by these agents. The United States initially maintained a position of neutrality but closely monitored events in Europe. Tensions escalated with Germany over its unrestricted submarine warfare, particularly following the sinking of the passenger liner Lusitania. 59 The United States officially declared war on the German Empire on April 6, 1917.60
By early 1917, the Romanov dynasty had lost much of its legitimacy in Russia. A series of strikes and military mutinies ultimately led to the collapse of the autocracy in late February 1917. According to Brendan Simms, the first Russian Revolution was not primarily a protest against the war itself, but rather against the tsar's failure to conduct a more aggressive campaign against Germany. In November of the same year, the Bolsheviks seized power. 61
By the end of 1917, the Western Allies were in a difficult position, not only in Russia but also on various other fronts. Allied forces were entangled in the Middle East and struggling on the Western Front. The Italians required significant support just to maintain their defensive line. Russian forces were retreating in the Caucasus under pressure from the Ottomans. Meanwhile, Germany had taken control of all the resources in Eastern and Central Europe. 62
In January 1918, to prevent the emergence of a German-dominated bloc in Europe and to establish a new order based on democracy and self-determination, President Wilson announced his famous "Fourteen Points." Point six demanded the evacuation of all Russian territory. Point eight called for the evacuation of all French territory occupied by Germany and the return of Alsace-Lorraine. Point nine requested that the Italian borders be readjusted based on national lines. Point ten advocated for the autonomous development of the peoples of Austria-Hungary. Under point eleven, Romania, Montenegro, and Serbia—then under Austro-German occupation—were all to be restored. The Arab lands, except Palestine, were to be granted self-government, although their foreign policy would remain under British control. Point thirteen called for the establishment of an independent Polish state, with access to the sea guaranteed by the great powers, containing populations that were indisputably Polish. Finally, the fourteenth point proposed the creation of a general association of nations to safeguard world peace and the territorial integrity of states. Brendan Simms suggests that the driving force behind these demands was a concern to reduce German power in Europe to manageable proportions. 63
The final phase of the struggle for dominance in Europe began with a significant German offensive on the Western Front in March 1918. Around the same time, German aircraft and Zeppelins intensified their attacks on British cities, aiming to cause maximum damage with new Elektron incendiary bombs. In the east, German forces continued to advance deep into Ukraine. Meanwhile, U-boats wreaked havoc on Allied shipping on the high seas. 64
In response to the crisis on the Western Front, the British and French appointed a joint Supreme Allied Commander, Marshal Foch. Simms suggests that this was the first example of successful Anglo-French military integration. By the summer of 1918, the Germans were halted at the Second Battle of the Marne. American troops made a decisive intervention at Belleau Wood in June 1918. By early August, British and French forces achieved a significant victory near Amiens, an engagement that General Ludendorff described as "the black day of the German army." 65
In early October 1918, the liberal Prince von Baden became the German Chancellor as a concession to President Wilson's democratic agenda. Shortly afterward, the Allies breached the formidable Hindenburg Line. Around the same time, Allied forces broke through on the Salonica front, forcing Bulgaria to surrender in late September. British forces also advanced through the Ottoman defenses in Palestine. By the end of October, the Italians routed the Austrians at the Battle of Vittorio Veneto. By this point, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was disintegrating, as its constituent parts began to rebel against Habsburg rule. 66
The new German government, hopeful of negotiating a settlement based on Wilson's Fourteen Points, reached out to the Allies with peace overtures. However, at the end of October, German sailors in Kiel mutinied against orders to attack the Royal Navy in a desperate attempt to turn the tide of the war, and unrest quickly spread across the country. Germany erupted in revolution, the Kaiser abdicated, and on November 11, the Germans signed an armistice that effectively amounted to surrender. 67
The German Empire officially ended on November 9, 1918, after Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicated and socialist leader Scheidemann proclaimed the establishment of the German Republic. 68
The German Empire, which lasted 47 years, experienced rapid growth in power and military ambition, bringing it into conflict with other European ruling powers.
Between 1880 and 1890, Germany possessed the third-largest combined military and naval personnel in the world, behind Russia and France. In 1900, Britain outnumbered Germany by 624,000 personnel - Britain's forces being 1,148,000 compared to Germany's 524,000. By 1910, however, Germany retained its third-place position with 694,000 personnel, while Britain had 571,000. On the eve of the First World War, Germany's military strength had risen to 891,000 personnel, surpassing Britain's 532,000. France maintained 910,000, while Russia led with 1.3 million.69
Germany also experienced rapid naval expansion. In 1880, Britain's warship tonnage was the largest in the world at 650,000 tons, compared to Germany's 88,000. By 1915, Germany's naval tonnage had risen to 1,305,000, making it the second-largest in the world - still behind Britain's dominant 2,714,000.70
Regarding the relative shares of world manufacturing output, in 1880, Britain dominated global manufacturing with 22.9% of world output, followed by Germany (8.5%), France (7.8%), and Russia (7.6%). By 1913, Germany had overtaken Britain, reaching 11.6% of world manufacturing output, while Britain's share declined to 9.9%. Over the same period, France's share fell to 6.1%, and Russia's slightly increased to 8.2%.71
The Anglo-German struggle for supremacy can be divided into two distinct phases. The first phase centered on Germany's growing tensions with the United Kingdom before other major powers became involved. By the late 19th century, this rivalry had already developed into a classic case of a rising power challenging a ruling one. The second phase unfolded in the early 20th century, when alliances had solidified: Britain was backed by France and Russia, while Germany was aligned with Austria-Hungary. Understanding the difference between these phases is crucial, as both the balance of power and the scale of the conflict varied significantly between them.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, Central Europe, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 688.
2. Paul Kennedy, Industrialization and Shifting Global Balances, 1815-1885, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 189.
3. Brendan Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 220.
4. Langer, Central Europe, 689.
5. Ibid., 690.
6. William L. Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 736.
7. Langer, Central Europe, 690.
8. Langer, International Relations, 738.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid., 739.
12. Ibid.
13. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 227.
14. Ibid., 228.
15. Ibid., 228-229.
16. Ibid., 229.
17. Ibid., 229.
18. Ibid., 230.
19. Langer, Central Europe, 691.
20. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 230.
21. Ibid., 234.
22. Langer, Central Europe, 692.
23. Langer, International Relations, 744-745.
25. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 234.
26. Ibid., 233-234.
27. Ibid., 234.
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid., 235-236.
31. Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, 749.
32. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 237.
33. Ibid.
34. Ibid., 238.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid., 241.
37. Ibid., 242.
38. Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, 749.
39. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 243.
40. Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, 754.
41. Ibid., 755.
42. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 247-248.
43. Ibid., 245.
44. Ibid., 247.
45. Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, 759.
46. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 248.
47. On October 18, 1912, the First Balkan War began between Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece on one side, and the Ottoman Empire on the other. The road to war began earlier that year. In March 1912, Bulgaria and Serbia concluded a treaty alliance, followed by a similar agreement between Bulgaria and Greece in May. On August 14, Bulgaria presented the Ottoman government with demands for autonomy in Macedonia. On September 18, 1912, Bulgaria and Serbia agreed to take military action against the Ottomans. Montenegro mobilized first, declaring war on October 8, 1912. After a series of battles, the war was temporarily halted by the London Conference, which opened on December 17, 1912. On January 6, 1913, during the negotiations, the great powers pressured the Ottomans to surrender Adrianople. Hostilities resumed in February 1913. In May, the London Peace Conference reconvened, culminating in the signing of the Treaty of London on May 30, which formally ended the war. Under the treaty, the Ottomans ceded all territory west of a line from Enos and Midia and renounced their claims to Crete. The final status of Albania and the Aegean Islands was left for the great powers to determine. - Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, 758-760.
48. After the Treaty of London, Serbia and Greece signed a treaty of alliance against Bulgaria on June 1, 1913. This alliance resulted from Serbia's failure to fulfill its claims on the Adriatic and Bulgaria's unwillingness to grant Serbia a larger portion of Macedonia than agreed upon in their previous agreement. On June 29, the Bulgarian commander Savov ordered an attack on the Serbian-Greek positions without informing Prime Minister Daney. Although the Bulgarian government disavowed this action, the Serbs and Greeks seized the opportunity to launch the attack they had long planned. Romania and Turkey subsequently entered the war against Bulgaria, which was quickly defeated. On August 10, the Treaty of Bucharest was signed, allowing Serbia and Greece to retain the parts of Macedonia they had already occupied. Bulgaria was left with only a small portion of Macedonia, having lost Monastir and Ohrid to Serbia and Saloniki and Kavala to Greece. On September 23, Serbia invaded Albania in response to Albanian raids into areas that had been assigned to Serbia by the Treaty of London. On September 29, the Treaty of Constantinople was signed between Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire, whereby the Turks regained Adrianople and the territory along the Maritza River. - Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, 760-761.
49. Ibid., 761.
50. Ibid.
51. Ibid.
52. Ibid.
53. Ibid., 762.
54. Ibid.
55. Ibid.
56. Ibid.
57. Ibid., 763.
58. Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, 257.
59. Ibid., 258-259.
60. Langer, International Relations, 1870-1914, 763.
61. Brendan Simms, Utopias, 1917-44, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 268-269.
62. Ibid., 270.
63. Ibid., 271.
64. Ibid., 273.
65. Ibid.
66. Ibid., 274.
67. Ibid.
68. William L. Langer, The End of The Habsburg Monarchy, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 951.
69. Kennedy, Industrialization and Shifting Global Balances, 1815-1885, 203.
70. Ibid.
71. Ibid., 202.
XVII. Nazi Germany v. the UK, France, & the USSR
Period – The mid-20th century
Ruling Power – The United Kingdom, France, & the Soviet Union
Rising Power – Nazi Germany
Domain - Continental dominance in Europe
Outcome - War
"The rearmament of Germany, which had already begun in the late Weimar period, was now speeded up. Hitler expanded the Reichswehr and pressed ahead with the development of weapons forbidden by the Versailles Treaty, such as tanks and aircraft." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle For Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 296.
"By 1938 Germany not only had an impressive land army, equipped with the latest weapons, but an air fleet far superior to that of any other country. In the course of 1938 the western frontier was heavily fortified, giving the country further assurance against attack from France." - William L. Langer, in An Encyclopedia of World History, 1940, 1002.
The Paris Peace Conference, which ended the World War I through a series of treaties, also resulted in the establishment of the League of Nations, an idea first articulated by President Wilson in his Fourteen Points.1 Furthermore, on February 15, 1922, the Permanent Court of International justice was inaugurated in The Hague. 2
William Langer notes that international relations since the First World War faced several key issues, one of which was the attempt to create collective security through new international bodies, such as the League of Nations and the Permanent Court of International Justice, while deliberately avoiding the formation of a superstate. 3
According to Brendan Simms, the Treaty of Versailles aimed to prevent a resurgence of German expansionism while maintaining the German Empire as a buffer against the spread of Bolshevism. Germany was required to relinquish all of its colonies. Alsace-Lorraine was returned to France, and North Schleswig was ceded to Denmark. Additionally, Eupen-Malmedy was given to Belgium. The fate of the Saar region was to be decided by a plebiscite. In the east, Germany surrendered West Prussia and the Wartheland to a reconstituted Poland, while Memel was initially placed under French administration before being seized by Lithuania. Danzig was established as a 'free city'. The future of the crucial industrial areas of Upper Silesia and the southern half of East Prussia - both contested by Polish and German armed groups - was to be determined by a plebiscite. Overall, the Reich lost approximately 13 percent of its territory and about 10 percent of its population. Germany was subjected to a regime of disarmament, occupation, and reparation payments. The Rhineland and Palatinate were to be occupied by British, French, American, and Belgian forces for up to ten years, partly to contain the Reich and partly to monitor each other.4
Paul Kennedy explains that "despite its territorial losses, military restrictions, and economic instability, Germany after 1919 was still potentially a powerful Great Power." He argues that Germany possessed a much larger population than France, along with an iron and steel production capacity that was three times larger. Its internal communications network remained intact, as did its chemical and electrical plants, universities, and technical institutes.5
In February 1919, the National Assembly elected Friedrich Ebert as the first president of the Weimar Republic. 6
On June 28, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States finalized defensive treaties to assist France in the event of aggression by Germany. However, the United States Senate did not ratify this agreement and also rejected the Versailles Treaty of November 19. 7
On July 12, 1919, the Allied blockade of Germany was finally lifted, after a significant portion of the population had been pushed to the brink of starvation.8
On July 31, the Weimar Constitution was adopted. Under this constitution, the president would be elected for a seven-year term and was responsible for appointing a chancellor, who in turn would select a cabinet that could secure a majority in the Reichstag. 9
On March 8, 1921, after evading an ultimatum, France occupied Düsseldorf, Duisburg, and Ruhrort. 10
On January 11, 1923, French and Belgian troops began their invasion and occupation of the Ruhr District in Germany. The United Kingdom refused to take part in this action and, in a note published on August 11, stated that the treaty did not authorize the Franco-Belgian occupation. The German government encouraged the people of the Ruhr to engage in passive resistance, which lasted until September 26. In the Rhineland, France attempted to foster a separatist movement aimed at establishing an independent buffer state; however, this plan ultimately failed.11
In April 1924, Germany accepted the Dawes Plan, which was developed under the leadership of American Charles G. Dawes. The Dawes Plan called for the reorganization of the German Reichsbank under Allied supervision. Of the total loan, $110 million was secured from the United States, while the remainder was obtained from European sources. 12
In February 1925, Germany proposed a mutual guarantee pact for the Rhineland. The French accepted the suggestion on the condition that Germany join the League of Nations. In August, the French withdrew from Düsseldorf, Duisburg, and Ruhrort. 13
In October 1925, the Locarno Conference resulted in several significant treaties. One treaty was signed to guarantee mutual security along the Franco-German and Belgo-German borders, involving Germany, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The United Kingdom and Italy acted as guarantors for this agreement. Additionally, arbitration treaties were signed between Germany and Poland, as well as between Germany and Czechoslovakia. Further arbitration agreements were established between Germany and Belgium and between Germany and France.14
Germany was admitted to the League of Nations on September 8, 1926, receiving a permanent seat on the council. 15
In August 1928, the Kellogg-Briand Pact, also known as the Pact of Paris, was signed in Paris. This agreement involved the renunciation of aggressive war and did not include any provisions for sanctions. In September of that same year, the ninth assembly of the League of Nations implemented the Kellogg-Briand Pact through a general act that provided for reconciliation and arbitration, along with an optional clause similar to that of the World Court. Acceptance of this clause involved compulsory arbitration. A total of 23 nations accepted the pact, though in some cases, they did so with reservations. 16
From August 6 to 31, 1929, the Hague Conference on the Young Plan took place. Germany accepted the Young Plan and, as a result, was promised the evacuation of the Rhineland before June 1930. The Young Plan placed responsibility on Germany for reparations payments. Germany was required to make payments through a new institution, the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. These payments, called annuities, were set to continue until 1988, with the amounts gradually increasing over the first 36 years. 17
On September 14, 1930, Reichstag elections took place, resulting in Hitler's National Socialist Party emerging as a major political force. Previously holding 12 seats, the party gained an additional 107 seats. Hitler's platform opposed all aspects of the Versailles Treaty, particularly the reparations. 18
William Langer suggests that the years following 1930 were characterized by a major international economic depression, which nearly devastated world trade and pushed many nations to the brink of bankruptcy. The strain in domestic affairs resulted in a significant shift toward dictatorial forms of government and a widespread rejection of financial and moral obligations as countries sought to address their internal problems. “Everywhere, from Austria to Australia, governments, banks, and corporations were exposed to immediate bankruptcy and were in terror of fascist or communist uprisings.” 19
On July 6, 1931, U.S. President Herbert Hoover announced the acceptance of a moratorium by all major creditor governments. On August 19 of that year, an international committee of bankers convened in Basel and published the Layton-Wiggin Report. This report called for a six-month extension of all foreign credits to Germany. Langer posits that after this, Germany was never fully solvent in international transactions, meaning it consistently struggled to pay both principal and interest on long-term and short-term foreign obligations promptly and in full. 20
On March 13, 1932, presidential elections were held in Germany. Hindenburg received 18,651,497 votes, compared to 11,300,000 for Hitler and 4,983,341 for Thalmann. However, Hindenburg fell short of the required majority. A second election took place on April 10, in which Hindenburg secured only 6,000,000 votes out of a total of 36,000,000. 21
On May 31, the government lifted a ban on Nazi Storm Troops, which allowed the National Socialist movement to gain significant momentum. Langer notes that disturbances and clashes among rival groups became commonplace during this period. 22
On July 20, a coup d'état in Prussia led to the declaration of martial law in Berlin and Brandenburg. This action was taken because the activities of the Nazi Storm Troops had made it increasingly difficult for civil authorities to maintain order. 23
On July 31, another election for the Reichstag was held after its dissolution on July 4. The results showed the National Socialists winning 230 seats, the Socialists obtaining 133, the Center Party securing 97, and the Communists gaining 89. In this situation, no majority could be formed since neither the Nazis nor the Communists were willing to enter into a coalition. 24
On August 13, Hitler declined President Hindenburg's request to serve as vice-chancellor under Von Papen, insisting on "all or nothing." On September 12, the Reichstag was dissolved. Von Papen resigned on November 17. Hitler also rejected an offer for the chancellorship under certain conditions, as Hindenburg refused his demand for full powers. 25
On January 30, 1933, Adolf Hitler was appointed Chancellor, with Von Papen serving as Vice-Chancellor. 26
Between February 2 and October 14, 1933, meetings of the Disarmament Conference were held after the U.S. government facilitated a Non-Force Declaration in December 1932. By this declaration, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy promised not to resolve any present or future differences between them by resorting to force. The conference discussed a plan put forward by M. Herriot along familiar French lines, but this was nullified by German opposition following the rise of Hitler on January 30. On March 16, Ramsay MacDonald, the Prime Minister of Britain, proposed a plan to reduce European armies by nearly half a million troops, to establish military equality between France and Germany. However, the proposal failed because Germany insisted that its Storm Troops should not be included in the count of effective forces. The conference adjourned in June and was scheduled to reconvene in October. In the meantime, desperate efforts were made to reach an agreement. The United Kingdom, France, Italy, and the United States were prepared to refrain from increasing armaments for four years, after which Germany would be allowed to have armaments equal to those of the other powers. However, the Germans insisted on having access to at least defensive weapons immediately. 27
In February 1933, due to the threat from nationalist Germany, the Little Entente was reorganized and established a permanent council. 28
On October 14, 1933, Germany announced its withdrawal from the Disarmament Conference, and shortly after, it withdrew from the League of Nations on October 23. 29 Langer notes that “this marked the beginning of an independent policy in foreign affairs.” 30
On July 25, 1934, the Nazis staged a coup in Vienna, during which Chancellor Dollfuss was assassinated. This coup was the culmination of Nazi propaganda and pressure on the Austrian government. William Langer suggests that the coup might have succeeded, or at least led to German intervention, if not for Mussolini's mobilization of forces at the Brenner Pass, which thwarted any further Nazi actions. 31
On August 2, President von Hindenburg died, followed by a plebiscite on August 19. After this plebiscite, Hitler became president and gained sole executive power with 88% of the votes in favor.32
Russia became a member of the League of Nations on September 19, 1934, reflecting the fears concerning the new Germany, according to Langer. 33
On March 16, 1935, Germany officially renounced the disarmament clauses of the Treaty of Versailles, reinstated conscription, and declared that its army would be expanded to 36 divisions.34
On April 11, during the Stresa Conference, England, France, and Italy formed a unified front in response to German actions. On May 2, a Franco-Russian alliance was established for five years, with both nations promising mutual aid in the event of unprovoked aggression. 35
On June 18, Britain and Germany finalized a new naval agreement. According to this treaty, Germany's naval force, including submarines, will not exceed 35% of that of Great Britain. This separate agreement has caused a rift with France. 36
On July 11, 1935, Germany and Austria signed an agreement that ended a period of significant tension between the two countries. In this agreement, Hitler pledged to respect Austria's sovereignty and to refrain from interfering in its internal affairs. In return, Austria committed to adopting policies that aligned with those of a German state. 37
In March 1936, Germany reoccupied the Rhineland, violating the Treaty of Versailles and the Locarno Treaties. The Germans also took advantage of the Ethiopian crisis, citing the danger posed by the Franco-Russian alliance. Following this, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and Italy condemned Germany for violating the Locarno Treaties. William Langer notes that the League of Nations also recognized this violation; however, despite the acute risk of war between Germany and France, the crisis eventually subsided, largely due to England's reluctance to impose sanctions. Hitler's vague proposals for a new agreement failed to materialize because he refused to consider extending the agreement to Eastern Europe.38
On July 18, 1936, the Spanish Civil War broke out. From the outset, the insurgents received support from Italy and Germany, while Russia assisted the government. The United Kingdom and France attempted to establish an international agreement against intervention, but the interested powers largely ignored this. William Langer argues that the Spanish War divided Europe into fascist and non-fascist factions.39
According to Paul Kennedy, the fascist countries started to align with one another.40 On October 25, 1936, the German-Italian Pact established the Berlin-Rome Axis, marking the division of Europe into contending groups. Following this, on November 17, a German-Japanese agreement was formed, followed by an Italian-Japanese agreement. 41
Between March 12 and 13, 1937, Germany invaded and annexed Austria, incorporating over 6 million Germans into the Reich. This action paved the way for further expansion of German influence in the Danube Valley. In September, Hitler also annexed the German-populated regions of Czechoslovakia, adding another three million Germans to the Reich. 42
On March 15, 1939, Germany occupied the remaining territories of Bohemia and Moravia, effectively extinguishing the Czechoslovak state. Bohemia and Moravia became a German protectorate, while Slovakia remained nominally independent. On March 21, Germany annexed Memel, which Lithuania controlled. At the same time, Germany made extensive demands on Poland concerning Danzig and Pomorze. William Langer suggests that the determination of the Polish government, combined with the concerns of Britain and France, who guaranteed Poland's security against attack, led the German government to exercise restraint. 43
The dispute between Germany and Poland over Danzig and Pomorze escalated quickly. Despite repeated warnings from England and France, the Germans reaffirmed their demands and expressed a determination to achieve their goals at any cost. By the end of June, German "volunteers" had started to arrive in Danzig, and a "free corps" was organized. Border incidents became increasingly frequent. The situation intensified when Germany succeeded in arranging a pact with Russia, which represented a complete reversal of the anti-communist stance that had been a cornerstone of National Socialist ideology. Throughout two weeks of heightened tensions, Germany refused to negotiate directly with Poland. On September 1, war broke out between Germany and Poland without a formal declaration. This conflict quickly led to declarations of war by England and France. 44
From the German perspective, Britain and France would cut off their supply of iron ore through Norway. In April and May of 1940, Hitler was compelled to take action once again. He preempted the Allied occupation of Norway by launching his invasion, and he also occupied Denmark to secure communication routes. Shortly afterward, Hitler initiated a rapid invasion of the Netherlands, Belgium, and France. Within a few weeks, the Low Countries had been completely overrun, the French army was defeated, and the British Expeditionary Force was so thoroughly beaten that it was fortunate to escape in such large numbers from the beaches of Dunkirk.45
Brendan Simms argues that Germany's victory in the west transformed European politics. From June 1940, Hitler controlled not only all of central Europe but also most of Poland, the entire northern half of France, the Low Countries, Denmark, and Norway. Simms notes that "the traditional European balance of power was no more. It had been replaced by German hegemony." 46
For the remaining powers, Hitler's geopolitical threat presented both a danger and an opportunity. Stalin was determined to counter Hitler's gains and prevent further German advances close to his borders through annexations. Shortly after the fall of France, Stalin occupied the Baltic States, and a month later, he pressured Romania to cede Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina. He also began to extend Soviet influence in the Balkans, not only to preempt Germany but also to keep the British at bay, as he viewed them as the principal capitalist power and a persistent threat to Soviet security.47
In response to the collapse of France, Mussolini advanced his ambitions for a fascist empire in Southeastern Europe and the Mediterranean. In June 1940, he launched a belated and completely unsuccessful offensive in southern France, yet he was still rewarded with a zone of occupation. Shortly afterward, he attacked the British in North Africa but was ignominiously repelled. Finally, in late October, Mussolini invaded Greece, hoping to establish a position of dominance in the Balkans to balance Hitler's control over central and western Europe. 48
In the United Kingdom, the new government under Winston Churchill was determined to continue fighting and to make whatever military, economic, social, and constitutional sacrifices were necessary to achieve victory. In mid-June 1940, Churchill made an unsuccessful offer of union with France, which involved joint citizenship and a common government. This was designed to secure French support for the war effort against Germany or, failing that, to protect their fleet. Not long after, once the French had capitulated, Britain rejected Hitler's peace overtures. 49
Britain was not alone in its struggle. Brendan Simms highlights the significance of support for Britain provided by the Commonwealth and Dominions in its efforts against Germany. Hundreds of invaluable 'imperial' pilots participated in the Battle of Britain. Factories in Canada, Australia, and India produced more rifles than Britain itself, as well as tens of thousands of aircraft; in fact, the Canadian economy was on par with that of Italy. Over the next five years, millions of Canadians, Australians, New Zealanders, and South Africans served in various capacities, primarily fighting against the Germans at first. Indians were also involved in the war, regardless of their preferences. After 1940, the Indian Army was increased to 2 million men, and India's resources were systematically deployed to support the war effort. 50
Simms notes that after the fall of France, Hitler shifted his focus away from fighting the British Empire. Instead, he signaled to his military leadership that he planned to attack the Soviet Union at the earliest opportunity. In late September 1940, Hitler convened meetings with Italian and Japanese leaders to establish the Tripartite Pact. By the end of the year, he issued detailed instructions for Operation Barbarossa, the planned invasion of the Soviet Union. In February 1941, he sent the Afrikakorps to North Africa to halt the advancing British forces and to secure the region as a staging post from which to threaten the United States. Soon, the British army in North Africa found itself in difficulties. 51
In March 1941, President Franklin D. Roosevelt introduced the Lend-Lease program, through which the United States provided significant quantities of war materials to the financially struggling British and Chinese governments. Henry Stimson, who was the Secretary of War at the time, stated that this action effectively declared an economic war against Germany and Japan.52
On June 22, 1941, Hitler invaded the Soviet Union. At that time, he had mobilized nearly all of Europe in support of his strategy. In response, President Roosevelt increased the pressure on Hitler, but he did not accept Stalin's surprising proposal to deploy American troops under U.S. command anywhere on the Russian front. Instead, Roosevelt sent substantial military aid to the Soviet Union, unfreezing Soviet assets and allowing Soviet shipping to operate without the restrictions imposed in August 1941. He also agreed to what became known as the "Atlantic Charter." Brendan Simms points out that "the Charter was a strategy for the defeat of Hitler, a super-Versailles which would once again disarm Germany." 53
As German armies advanced deep into Russian territory, Japan prepared in August 1941 to abandon its neutrality and confront the Soviet Union in the east. In response, President Roosevelt imposed an oil and steel embargo on Japan. On December 7, the Japanese launched a surprise attack on the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor. Shortly after, on December 11, Hitler declared war on the United States. 54
In January 1942, the Allied powers issued the 'Declaration by the United Nations', pledging to use their full resources to fight for victory against Germany. For nearly six months, it appeared that the Axis powers might prevail. The Japanese achieved significant victories against the Americans and European colonial empires, with Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies falling in quick succession. Meanwhile, German U-boats decimated unprotected U.S. shipping off the American coasts. 55
Germany continued its advance in Russia, reaching Stalingrad on the Volga River and pushing south toward the crucial oil fields of the Caucasus. Additionally, the Afrikakorps seemed close to capturing Egypt and advancing into Palestine. 56
In January 1943, during the Casablanca Conference, Britain and the United States announced a policy of "unconditional surrender," which Stalin agreed to a few months later. The Royal Air Force conducted night bombings of residential areas in Germany, while American forces focused on the precise bombing of key industrial sites. As a result, hundreds of thousands of German civilians were killed, and war production was severely disrupted. 57
In February 1943, the German Sixth Army surrendered after being surrounded at Stalingrad. Hitler's attempts to capture the oil fields in the Caucasus also failed. A few months later, he experienced a similar disaster at Tunis, where almost his entire North African army surrendered to the Allies. Although Hitler tried to starve Britain through submarine warfare, this strategy nearly succeeded; however, by the spring of 1943, the Allies had lost the Battle of the Atlantic, with tremendous losses among the U-boat crews. Additionally, a massive armored attack at Kursk also failed. 58
In early June 1944, the British, Americans, and Canadians launched an invasion of northern France. Two weeks later, the Red Army initiated a decisive offensive against the German Army Group Centre, marking the largest land battle of the year. Shortly thereafter, Soviet forces advanced deep into pre-war Polish territory. After six weeks of intense fighting, the Western Allies broke through German lines in Normandy and raced towards Paris. By the end of the year, a last desperate gamble in the Ardennes had failed. Brendan Simms notes that the vision of Lebensraum and German hegemony was effectively dead. "The second war against Germany was almost over, another battle for Germany was about to begin." 59
At the Yalta Conference in 1945, Stalin and Churchill agreed to divide southeastern Europe into spheres of influence. Romania and Bulgaria fell under the control of the Soviet Union, while Greece was assigned to Britain and the United States. All parties would share influence in Yugoslavia and Hungary. Additionally, they agreed that Poland's eastern border should be moved closer to Warsaw, following the old 'Curzon Line.' 60
Despite the impressive show of unity among the Allies, Hitler was confident that he could repeat the successes of Frederick the Great by continuing to fight until the encircling coalition disintegrated. The final, dramatic confrontation in Berlin saw the Wehrmacht, Volkssturm, French, Flemish, Scandinavian, Russian, and various other auxiliary forces going up against the Red Army. On April 30, 1945, Hitler committed suicide, and on May 8, the new German government surrendered. 61
Germany's defense expenditure saw significant increases after 1933, the year Hitler became Chancellor. In 1933, Germany's defense spending was $452 million in current dollars, which adjusts to $620 million when accounting for inflation. By 1938, just before World War II, Germany's defense spending had risen to $7.415 billion, amounting to $5.807 billion when adjusted for constant value. In comparison, the USSR's defense spending in 1933 was $707 million, which adjusts to $303 million in constant dollars. By 1938, the USSR's defense expenditure reached $5.429 billion, or $4.527 billion when adjusted for inflation. The United Kingdom's defense spending in 1933 was $333 million, adjusting to $500 million in constant value. By 1938, the UK's defense spending rose to $1.863 billion, equivalent to $1.915 billion when looking at constant values. France's defense spending in 1933 stood at $524 million, which adjusts to $805 million in constant dollars. By 1938, France's defense expenditure had increased to $919 million, amounting to $1.014 billion when adjusted for inflation.62
In terms of shares of global manufacturing production, Germany accounted for 10.6% of the world's output in 1932 and increased its share to 13.2% by 1938. The USSR had a share of 11.5% in 1932, which rose to 17.6% in 1938. The United Kingdom's share was 10.9% in 1932 but decreased to 9.2% in 1938. Meanwhile, France's share dropped from 6.9% in 1932 to 4.5% in 1938. 63
Aircraft production in the 1930s illustrates the dramatic rearmament of the European Powers and not only. Germany produced only 368 aircraft in 1933, but by 1938 its output had risen to 5,235, making it the world's second largest producer after the USSR. The Soviet Union, already the leading producer in 1933 with 2,595 aircraft, expanded its output to 10,382 by 1938, surpassing all other powers. The United Kingdom also registered impressive growth, rising from 633 aircraft in 1933 to 7,940 in 1938, making it the third-largest producer globally on the eve of the Second World War. France produced 600 aircraft in 1933, increasing modestly to 1,382 by 1938. 64
Despite the significant territorial and economic losses imposed by the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, Germany retained several domestic advantages that aided its recovery. The country's large population and relatively abundant natural resources provided a strong foundation for resurgence.
During the Weimar Republic (1919-1933), a significant share of state revenues was devoted to reparations. The Weimar Republic pursued a largely cautious and defensive foreign policy, constrained by the Treaty of Versailles and preoccupied with domestic instability. Expansionist ambitions were absent, and German diplomacy instead focused on reintegration into the international community through initiatives such as joining the League of Nations and signing peace treaties with European powers. This orientation changed dramatically with the rise of the Third Reich.
After 1933, Germany began to resist reparation obligations. The resulting political upheaval culminated in the rise of the National Socialist Party and Adolf Hitler, who became Chancellor in 1933 and later consolidated power as Führer. In 1933, Hitler's government withdrew Germany from both the World Disarmament Conference and the League of Nations, signaling a rejection of collective security. In 1936, the remilitarization of the Rhineland effectively nullified the Locarno Treaties and marked a decisive turn toward unilateralism and territorial revisionism. These steps constituted Germany’s first official break with the post-World War I settlement. By the mid-1930s, Germany’s rapid economic recovery and military buildup made its resurgence undeniable.
With the annexation of German-speaking territories, Germany expanded its territory, population, and industrial base, strengthening its military potential. However, expansions into the Low Countries and non-German lands, created new strategic vulnerabilities.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, The Peace Settlements, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 952.
2. William L. Langer, Europe: International Affairs, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 958.
3. Ibid., 955.
4. Brendan Simms, Utopias, 1917-44, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 276.
5. Paul Kennedy, The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”: Part Two, 1919-1942, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 288.
6. Langer, The Peace Settlements, 952.
7. Langer, Europe: International Affairs, 955.
8. Langer, The Peace Settlements, 952.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid., 957.
11. Ibid., 958-959.
12. Ibid., 959.
13. Ibid., 960.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. Ibid.
17. Ibid., 960-961.
18. William L. Langer, Greater Germany, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 999.
19. Langer, The Peace Settlements, 961.
20. Ibid.
21. Langer, Greater Germany, 999.
22. Ibid.
23. Ibid., 999-1000.
24. Ibid., 1000.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
27. Langer, The Peace Settlements, 963.
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. Langer, Greater Germany, 1002.
31. Ibid., 1000.
32. Ibid.
33. Langer, The Peace Settlements, 963.
34. Ibid.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid.
37. Langer, Greater Germany, 1003.
38. Langer, The Peace Settlements, 964.
39. Ibid.
40. Kennedy, The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”, 337.
41. Langer, The Peace Settlements, 964.
42. Langer, Greater Germany, 1004.
43. Ibid., 1004-1005.
44. Ibid., 1005.
45. Simms, Utopias, 1917-44, 312.
46. Ibid.
47. Ibid.
48. Ibid., 312-313.
49. Ibid., 313.
50. Ibid., 313-314.
51. Ibid., 314.
52. Ibid., 315.
53. Ibid., 316-317.
54. Ibid., 317.
55. Ibid., 318.
56. Ibid.
57. Ibid., 322.
58. Ibid., 323.
59. Ibid., 324.
60. Brendan Simms, Partitions, 1945-73, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 327.
61. Ibid., 329.
62. Kennedy, The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers", 296.
63. Ibid., 330.
64. Ibid., 324.
XVIII. Japan v. the United States
Period – The mid-20th century
Ruling Power – The United States
Rising Power – Japan
Domain – Dominance in the Asia-Pacific
Outcome - War
"Between the wars, the Japanese extended their sphere of commercial operation still further and in the 1930's found markets all over the world. Even more to the point, the industrial base required by modern armies, navies, and air forces developed rapidly, both in Japan proper and in her newly won empire in Korea (1910) and Manchuria (1931-32)." - William H. McNeill in The Rise of The West, 1963, 621.
"By 1938, in fact, Japan had not only become much stronger economically than Italy, but had also overtaken France in all of the indices of manufacturing and industrial production..." - Paul Kennedy in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1988, 299.
"In early August, the US dropped a devastating atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima and then another on Nagasaki, killing around 200,000 Japanese instantly, nearly all of them civilians." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle For Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 333.
As mentioned in the previous case, Japan v. Russia, after centuries of isolation, Japan emerged as a rising power, rapidly modernizing and militarizing. Its rise was neither halted nor delayed by its conflict with Russia.
During World War I, Japan joined the Allies due to its alliance with them made prior to the war.
In 1902, Japan and the United Kingdom signed an alliance treaty that acknowledged the independence of both China and Korea, while also recognizing Japan's special interests in Korea. According to the treaty, each country was to maintain neutrality if the other became involved in a war with a single power. However, if a third power entered the conflict, both nations would cooperate in matters of war and peace. The alliance was initially set to last for five years. On August 12, 1905, the Anglo-Japanese alliance was renewed for another ten years, with the conditions redefined to include a situation where a single power attacked either party.1
On June 10, 1907, Japan signed a treaty with France that guaranteed the "open door" policy and the territorial integrity of China. The agreement aimed to maintain the status quo in the Far East and included a most-favored-nation clause. Both nations made a mutual commitment to ensure the security of Chinese territory in which each had special interests, with Japan focusing on Fujian and parts of Manchuria and Mongolia.2
On November 30, 1908, the United States and Japan exchanged notes regarding the Root-Takahira Agreement, which outlined a standard policy for maintaining the status quo in the Pacific and supporting the "open door" policy for the integrity of China. On February 24, 1911, a new treaty was signed between Japan and the United States that continued to restrict the emigration of Japanese laborers. Then, on July 13 of the same year, the Anglo-Japanese alliance was renewed for another ten years, this time without any reference to Korea. Under this agreement, neither party would be drawn into war with a nation with which it had a general arbitration treaty. 3
On February 3, 1912, a substantial naval program was proposed to Japan's Diet, which included plans for eight super-dreadnoughts and eight armored cruisers to begin in 1913. 4
On May 9, 1913, Japan formally protested to the United States regarding proposed anti-alien land legislation in California. Despite the protest, the bill was signed into law on May 19, and Japan confirmed that treaty rights were not being infringed upon. 5
On August 15, 1914, Japan issued an ultimatum to Germany, demanding the withdrawal of the German fleet from the Far East and the surrender of Kiao-chow within a week. As no response was received, Japan declared war on Germany on August 23. 6
Brendan Simms argues that Japan joined the First World War on the side of the Entente shortly after it began, focusing on taking over Germany's possessions in the Pacific.7
According to William Langer, during the First World War (1914-1918), Japan produced and shipped large quantities of munitions to Europe, particularly to Russia. At the same time, Japanese merchants capitalized on the conflict to replace German trade in East Asia.8
Similarly, William McNeill describes the growth of Japanese commercial activities during WWI and the post-war period - "After a shaky start in the 1880's, mechanically powered industry and transport made it possible for Japanese manufacturers to compete with European or American goods all over the Far East by the time of World War I. Between the wars, the Japanese extended their sphere of commercial operations still further and in the 1930's found markets all over the world. Even more to the point, the industrial base required by modern armies, navies, and air forces developed rapidly, both in Japan proper and in her newly won empire in Korea (1910) and Manchuria (1931-32)... Japan's industrialization did not follow European patterns. The state played a far more central and critical role than it had done in any European country. As a result, entrepreneurial decisions were always affected by the requirements of national military power." 9
On January 18, 1915, Japan presented the Twenty-One Demands to China, beginning the process of subordinating China and establishing Japan's dominance in the Far East. 10
On October 19, Japan officially joined the Pact of London, committing itself not to conclude a separate peace. 11
On November 2, 1917, an exchange of notes occurred between Japan and the United States, known as the Lansing-Ishii Agreement. In this agreement, the United States acknowledged Japan's special interests in China, while Japan pledged to uphold China's integrity, independence, and the principle of the "open door." 12
On January 10, 1920, Japan formally concluded peace with Germany through an exchange of ratifications. Initially satisfied, Japan later became disappointed over its failure to secure acknowledgment of its special position in the Far East. On December 17, Japan received the former German islands in the Pacific north of the equator, specifically the Caroline, Marshall, and Mariana archipelagos, as mandates from the League of Nations. 13
On February 4, 1922, a Sino-Japanese Treaty was established. This treaty mandated the withdrawal of Japanese troops from Shantung and the restoration of all former German interests in Tsingtao and the railway to Tsinan back to China. In exchange, China would compensate for the assessed value of these interests, along with any improvements made by the Japanese. 14 On February 11 of that year, the Yap Treaty was signed between Japan and the United States. Under this treaty, the United States gained equal rights with Japan and other nations to use cable and wireless facilities in Yap and other Japanese mandates. 15
In September 1923, the Great Tokyo earthquake, followed by major fires in Tokyo, Yokohama, and neighboring cities, tidal waves, and repeated tremors, resulted in an estimated 200,000 deaths and $1 billion in losses. Relief was sent from abroad, particularly from the United States. 16
In 1924, the United States ended the gentlemen's agreement, imposing the total exclusion of Japanese immigrants. This provoked widespread outrage in Japan, resulting in demonstrations and boycotts of American products. 17
Japan faced a severe banking crisis in 1927, caused partly by large loans for relief and reconstruction. 18
In 1927, Japan intervened in Shantung to block the advance of Chinese Nationalist forces towards Peking. In 1928, Japan intervened once more, which led to clashes between Chinese and Japanese forces in Tsinan. The situation was settled on March 28, 1929, with China agreeing to pay damages but not indemnity. Japanese troops withdrew on May 20 of the same year. 19
The Sino-Japanese conflict renewed following the Mukden Incident in September 1931, triggering the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, seizing Mukden, and expelling the Chinese forces. 20
From January to March 1933, hostilities between China and Japan continued in Shanghai, fueled by Japanese protests against the Chinese boycott. 21
On May 27, 1933, Japan announced its withdrawal from the League of Nations, effective in two years, following the Lytton Commission's report. 22
On April 18, 1934, Japan's foreign office issued a statement asserting a de facto Japanese protectorate over China's relations with Western powers. 23
On November 25, 1936, Japan signed the Anti-Communist Pact with Germany. 24
The hostilities between China and Japan resumed again in July 1937. 25
In March 1938, Japan approved a regular budget and a war budget, totaling 8,365,000,000 yen. 26 If in 1930 Japan's defense expenditure was $218 million in current dollars, by 1938, this amount had increased significantly to $1.74 billion, demonstrating significant rise. When adjusted for inflation, this value equates to approximately $2.49 billion. In comparison, the United States spent $699 million on defense in 1930, which rose to $1.131 billion by 1938.27
Additionally, Before World War II, Japan significantly increased its aircraft production. In 1932, Japan produced only 691 aircraft, but by 1939, that number had surged to 4,467. In comparison, the United States produced 593 aircraft in 1932; however, by 1939, its production had risen to 2,195, still falling short of Japan's output. 28
In terms of global manufacturing output, Japan accounted for only 2.5% in 1929, but this figure rose to 3.8% by 1938. By contrast, the United States dominated world manufacturing with a share of 43.3% in 1929. However, this proportion declined substantially to 28.7% by 1938, though it remained far greater than Japan's share. 29
The United States amended the Neutrality Act in May 1937, removing the arms embargo and placing exports to belligerents on a cash-and-carry basis. 30
In January 1940, Admiral Mitsumasa Yonai formed a new cabinet for Japan. In March of the same year, a puppet government in China under Wang Ching-wei was established in Nanking with support from Japan. 31
In July 1940, Prince Fumimaro Konoye was appointed as the Prime Minister of Japan, tasked with implementing a program of national consolidation and defense. During the same month, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago nominated Franklin D. Roosevelt for a third presidential term and Henry Wallace as the vice-presidential candidate. 32
On September 22, 1940, Japanese armed forces began the occupation of French Indochina after the French government granted permission for the use of three airfields and other concessions. 33
On September 27, 1940, Germany, Italy, and Japan signed the Three-Power Pact in Berlin, committing to mutual aid among all members for ten years. The stated goal of the pact was to "promote the prosperity of their peoples." 34
On March 11, 1941, the United States Congress passed the Lend-Lease Act, which empowered the President to provide goods and services to nations whose defense he considered vital to the defense of the United States. 35
In April 1941, Russia and Japan signed a neutrality treaty. 36
On August 24, Prime Minister Churchill promised British support to the United States if it became involved in war with Japan. 37
On November 29, Japanese Prime Minister Gen. Hideki Tojo declared that the influence of Great Britain and the United States must be eliminated from the Orient. Following this declaration, on December 2, President Roosevelt sought clarification on Japan's aims in Indo-China and appealed to Emperor Hirohito to assist in preserving peace. 38
On December 7, Japan launched hostilities with a surprise attack on Hawaii, the Philippines, Guam, Midway Island, Hong Kong, and Malaya. The next day, December 8, the United States Congress declared a state of war with Japan. Following this, on December 11, Germany and Italy declared war on the United States. 39
In the Pacific, the Japanese were initially halted at the Battle of the Coral Sea and then faced a devastating loss of most of their aircraft carriers at Midway in May 1942. Following these setbacks, the United States began the gradual reconquest of the Pacific, employing a strategy of 'island-hopping' to move closer to Japan itself.40
In January 1943, during the Casablanca Conference, Britain and the United States announced a policy of "unconditional surrender." A few months later, the Soviet Union also endorsed this policy. The priority was to defeat Germany first - only after this would the coalition shift its full attention to Japan. 41
After sustained land and air campaigns by the Allies, Nazi Germany surrendered unconditionally on May 7, 1945, bringing the war in Europe to an end.42
In the autumn of 1945, military and diplomatic focus temporarily shifted to the Far East, where the Japanese continued to resist the Americans as they 'island-hopped' across the Pacific.43
In early August 1945, the United States dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing around 200,000 Japanese instantly, nearly all of them civilians.44 On August 14, Japan accepted terms of surrender, formally signed on September 2, 1945, ending the Second World War.45
Despite achieving rapid economic growth through industrialization and expanding access to global markets, Japan's bid to dominate the Asia-Pacific and exclude Western powers ultimately failed. Its confrontation with the United States, which had just emerged as a global power, cost Japan billions of dollars and thousands of lives. After WWII, Japan lost its status as a rising power and transformed into a demilitarized state. At the same time, the emergence of an independent China reshaped the balance of power in Asia. However, it was not until decades later that China began to assume the regional role Japan had once sought.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, Japan, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 892.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid., 893.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
7. Brendan Simms, Unifications, 1867-1916, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present, (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 257.
8. William L. Langer, Japan, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 1123.
9. William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: Cosmopolitanism on a Global Scale 1850-11950 A.D.: C. The Non-Western World, 1850-1950 A.D., in The Rise of the West (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), 788.
10. Langer, Japan, 1123.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid., 1124.
14. William L. Langer, China, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 1118.
15. William L. Langer, North America: 1. The United States, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 1050.
16. Langer, Japan, 1124-1125.
17. Ibid., 1125.
18. Ibid.
19. Ibid.
21. Ibid., 1126.
22. Ibid.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid., 1127.
27. Paul Kennedy, The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”: Part Two, 1919-1942, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 296.
28. Ibid., 324.
29. Ibid., 330.
30. William L. Langer, The Second World War: 1. Political and International Affairs 1939-1945, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 1135.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid.
33. Ibid., 1136.
34. Ibid.
35. Ibid.
36. Ibid., 1137.
37. Ibid.
38. Ibid., 1137-1138.
39. Ibid., 1138.
40. Brendan Simms, Partitions, 1945-73, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 323.
41. Ibid., 322.
42. Langer, The Second World War, 1144.
43. Simms, Partitions, 1945-73, 332.
44. Ibid., 333.
45. Langer, The Second World War, 1144.
XIX. Italy v. the UK, France, the USSR & the United States
Period – The early 20th century
Ruling Power – The UK, France, the USSR & the United States
Rising Power – Italy
Domain – Great power status
Outcome - War
"... Italy could insist on being promised her aims before she entered the war. She hoped to achieve all her ambitions at a stroke: completion of her 'national unity' by acquiring Tyrol and Istria; domination of the Adriatic; and recognition as a Great Power both in the Near East and in colonial matters." - A.J.P. Taylor in The Struggle For Mastery in Europe, 1848-1918, 1954, 544.
"In October 1922, Mussolini marched on Rome and took power. He promised not only to resolve the country's deep economic, social and political problems, but more importantly to make Italy great among the powers." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle For Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 283.
"The Italian government had, indeed, adopted a policy of friendship with Ethiopia and had supported the admission of Ethiopia to the League of Nations. Now, however, this policy was reversed and the old policy of imperialist expansion was resumed." - William L. Langer in An Encyclopedia of World History, 1940, 990.
With the collapse of the Napoleonic Empire in 1814, the states of the Italian peninsula were restructured under the effective control of Austria. The new states included nine entities: the Kingdom of Sardinia (Piedmont), Modena, Parma, Lucca, Tuscany, the Papal States, the Kingdom of Naples, the Republic of San Marino, and Monaco. Austria annexed Lombardy and Venetia.1
Between 1848 and 1849, the First Italian War of Independence began, marked by the Five Days of Milan (March 18-22, 1848). This uprising reflected widespread dissatisfaction with Austrian rule and was heavily influenced by news of the revolution in Vienna. The Italian wars ultimately contributed to the long process of Italian unification.2
On March 17, 1861, the Kingdom of Italy was proclaimed by the first Italian parliament, with Victor Emmanuel as first king and a government based on the Piedmontese Constitution of 1848. The Kingdom of Italy completed its territorial unification after the annexation of Rome in October 1870, making Rome the capital. 3
On May 20, 1882, Italy, Austria, and Germany established the Triple Alliance. 4
In 1885, Italy occupied Assab and Massawa on the Red Sea after the French frustrated Italian hopes for Tunisia. 5
In 1887, Francesco Crispi, who had previously served as the Minister of the Interior, became the Prime Minister of Italy. In terms of foreign policy, Crispi firmly supported the alliance with Austria and Germany. This strong stance strained relations with France to the point where a rupture almost occurred, as noted by William Langer. Crispi ruled until 1891. 6
Langer notes that Crispi was a convinced imperialist who was determined to expand Italy's presence in the Red Sea. This ambition led to war with Ethiopia, resulting in a serious setback at Dogali. Nevertheless, the Italians managed to strengthen their position by supporting Menelek, the King of Shoa, against the Ethiopian Emperor John. 7
Crispi became Prime Minister again in 1893, ruling until 1896. During his ministry, the Ethiopian War emerged. Menelik II rejected the Italian interpretation of the Treaty of Uccialli (1891), and all efforts to compromise had failed. By 1895, after securing the necessary munitions, Menelik was ready to confront the Italian challenge. 8
On December 7, 1895, the Italians, having advanced into northern Ethiopia, were decisively defeated at Amba Alagi by Ras Makonnen, who then besieged the key fortress of Makalle. The fortress fell on January 20, 1896. On March 1, 1896, during the Battle of Adwa, 25,000 Italians were utterly defeated by approximately 100,000 Ethiopians under Menelik's command. Most of those who were not killed were captured and held for ransom. William Langer observes that this was "one of the worst colonial disasters in modern history." 9
On September 30, 1896, Italy and France signed an agreement regarding Tunisia. Italy relinquished many of its claims. 10
On December 14, 1900, Italy and France made another deal about North Africa: France could take Morocco, and Italy could take Tripoli (Libya). 11
On September 29, 1911, Italy declared war on the Ottoman Empire, beginning the Tripolitan War. The conflict was sparked by Turkish obstruction of Italy's efforts to expand its influence peacefully in Tripoli. One day before the war broke out, Italy sent an ultimatum to the Ottomans, which was ultimately rejected. 12
On October 5, 1911, Italy landed a military force at Tripoli and occupied the town. Other coastal towns were captured in quick succession. On November 5, the Italian government announced the annexation of Tripoli, although the country was not yet fully conquered. 13
Between January and February 1912, the Italians conducted naval operations in the Red Sea and along the Syrian coast. They bombarded several coastal cities, but their overall efforts were significantly hindered by Austria's refusal to allow military action on the Balkan or Aegean coasts. In April, the Italians organized a naval demonstration at the Dardanelles. By May, they had occupied Rhodes and the other Dodecanese Islands. In October, Italy and the Ottoman Empire signed a treaty in which the Turks renounced their sovereignty over Tripoli. In return, the Italians agreed to recognize a representative of the sultan as caliph. They were also to restore the Dodecanese Islands as soon as the Turks evacuated Tripoli. 14
On June 7, 1914, riots erupted in Ancona after an anti-militarist demonstration was prohibited. A general strike followed in the town and spread to other parts of the Marches, Romagna, and beyond. The leader of the movement was Enrico Malatesta, and Benito Mussolini, who was then the editor of the socialist newspaper Avanti, played a prominent role in the events. 15
On August 3, 1914, Italy declared its neutrality in World War I. 16 Italy's announcement of its neutrality in WWI was based on claims that the Triple Alliance applied only to defensive wars and that Austria-Hungary had offered no 'compensations.' In response, Sazonov (Russia's foreign minister) quickly addressed this shortcoming by offering Italy Tyrol, Trieste, and Valona (in Albania) in exchange for their assistance against Austria. However, this proposal was insufficient for Italy. The Italians viewed themselves as the heirs of the Republic of Venice and therefore claimed "supremacy of the Adriatic." Ultimately, Sazonov's negotiations with Italy did not yield any results.17
According to A.J.P. Taylor, in 1915, Britain aimed to outmaneuver Germany by knocking Turkey out of the war, while the French sought to achieve the same goal by bringing Italy into the conflict. The British supported this strategy since the Italian army could serve as a replacement for the forces they were unable to deploy at that time. Additionally, the Italian navy would enhance the strength of the Entente in the Mediterranean. Taylor notes that in 1914, Russia had been particularly eager to involve Italy in the war. As Russian forces turned their focus against Germany, they needed Italy to either distract Austria-Hungary or defeat it.18
Taylor explains that Italy aimed to fulfill all its ambitions at once by entering World War I. These ambitions included completing national unity by acquiring Tyrol and Istria, gaining dominance over the Adriatic Sea, and achieving recognition as a Great Power in both the Near East and colonial affairs.19
On March 4, 1915, Italy joined the Entente. 20
According to Brendan Simms, the Treaty of Versailles brought little joy to the victors. In Italy, critics referred to it as a "mutilated victory," claiming that it denied them their rightful gains in the Adriatic. The government led by Prime Minister Vittorio Orlando was ousted from power. Simultaneously, Italian democracy struggled to manage not only the aftermath of the Treaty but also the significant social and economic divisions that emerged after the war ended. During the general elections at the end of the year, the liberal governing coalition performed poorly, while various annexationist parties gained popularity. Benito Mussolini, the notable figure behind the fascist "Blackshirt" movement (founded in March 1919), began to attract more supporters. He effectively replaced the promise of radical domestic change with the vision of a more assertive Italy on the international stage.21
In October 1922, Mussolini marched on Rome and seized power. He promised to resolve the country's deep economic, social, and political issues, and more importantly, to make the Mediterranean "more Italian" by "expelling those who are parasites." Mussolini argued that the nation needed to carve out its own "spazio vitale" (vital space), not only through the acquisition of critical land but also by gaining access to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. This strategy posed a threat to the French in North Africa, aimed to dismantle the British Empire, which he believed strangled Italy by controlling exits to the Mediterranean at Gibraltar, Malta, and Egypt. It was also challenging the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia and Greece. It could only, as the Italian dictator admitted, be executed "at Germany's side." 22
Simms explains that there was a widespread agreement that Mussolini's Italy posed a threat to both powers in the Mediterranean, especially in Africa, and to the stability of the Balkans. This consensus ultimately led to the Corfu Incident, during which the Royal Navy was mobilized to prevent Italy from taking control of the island in 1923. 23
In January 1924, Italy signed a treaty with Yugoslavia regarding Fiume. The town was ceded to Italy, while Yugoslavia received Porto Barros and special facilities in Fiume.24
On April 6, 1924, during the elections, the fascists, utilizing government control and employing aggressive "squad" tactics, received 65% of the votes. As a result, their representation in the Chamber increased from 35 to 375 seats. 25
In February 1926, tensions with Germany escalated due to the harsh Germanization policies in the Southern Tyrol. 26
In February 1928, the Fascist militia was incorporated into the regular army. 27
On August 2, 1928, Italy signed a treaty of friendship with Ethiopia. 28
On February 6, 1930, a treaty of friendship was established with Austria. 29
In April 1930, Italy conducted an extensive naval program due to its failure to secure recognition of Italian parity from France. Over the following years, Italian naval and air forces were built up to impressive dimensions. 30
Italy experienced significant economic depression between 1930 and 1935. William Langer suggests that the country's difficulties were exacerbated by a lack of basic raw materials and a persistent adverse trade balance. As a result, the government exerted almost complete control over finance and industry.31
On February 2 and October 4, 1933, the Disarmament Conferences were held, facilitated by a No Force Declaration from the United States. In this declaration, Germany, France, Great Britain, and Italy pledged "not in any circumstances to attempt to resolve any present or future differences between them by resort to force." The proposal initially failed during the first meeting due to Germany's opposition. The second meeting, held in October, saw the Germans insisting on the immediate availability of at least "defensive" weapons. 32
In March 1933, Mussolini proposed a four-power pact involving Britain, France, Italy, and Germany. The pact was concluded on July 15, but in a much diluted form.33
On December 5, 1934, Italian and Ethiopian troops clashed at Ualual, located on the disputed Ethiopian-Somaliland frontier. The Italian government used this incident as a justification for the conquest of Ethiopia. Italy had signed an agreement in 1906 with England and France, which required Italy to accept a relatively unpromising portion of Ethiopia as its sphere of interest. Additionally, Italy had established a treaty of friendship with Ethiopia. William Lanager notes that "the Italian government had, indeed, adopted a policy of friendship with Ethiopia and had supported the admission of Ethiopia to the League of Nations. Now, however, this policy was reversed and the old policy of imperialist expansion was resumed." 34
On January 3, 1935, the Italians refused to submit the Ualual incident to arbitration. In response, the Ethiopian government appealed to the League of Nations under Article XI of the Covenant, but the League postponed any action. On January 7, an agreement was signed between France and Italy. In hopes of securing Italian support against Germany, France made significant concessions to Italian claims in Africa, granting Italy essentially a free hand in Ethiopia. Mussolini quickly took advantage of this situation, sending Generals Di Bono and Graziani with large forces to Eritrea. 35
On April 11, 1935, the Stresa Conference was held between Britain, France, and Italy to establish a united front against German actions. 36
From June to July 1935, arbitration negotiations between Italy and Ethiopia were held at The Hague, but resulted in no agreement. 37
On October 3, the Italian forces began their invasion of Ethiopia, capturing Adua on October 6. The following day, October 7, the League of Nations Council declared Italy to be the aggressor in the Ethiopian conflict and started to organize the imposition of sanctions against Italy. 38
Brendan Simms notes: "That month, Mussolini - misunderstanding the spirit of Stresa - sought to draw on his credit in Paris and London by invading Ethiopia, thus underlining Italy's claim to great-power status. Much to his surprise, the British and French governments - under pressure from outraged public opinion - strongly opposed the move. They did not, however, press the League of Nations to impose effective sanctions - especially a crucial oil embargo on Mussolini." 39
By the end of 1935, international tensions had escalated significantly, bringing the United Kingdom and Italy to the brink of conflict in the Mediterranean. Britain amassed a large naval force in Alexandria and secured promises of support from France, Yugoslavia, Greece, and the Ottoman Empire. William Langer notes that British forces were poorly prepared, particularly in terms of air power, which led them to avoid any provocative actions. The reoccupation of the Rhineland by Germany in March 1936 diverted the attention of England and France, making any further action against Italy seem unlikely.40
On May 5, 1936, Italian forces occupied Addis Ababa, leading to the collapse of Ethiopian resistance. On May 9, the Italian government officially announced the annexation of Ethiopia, with the King of Italy taking the title of Emperor of Ethiopia. The gradual pacification of the country began. 41 In July, a civil war broke out in Spain, and from the very outset, Mussolini took an active role in supporting the insurgents with men and equipment. He believed that Italy could not allow a communist government to establish itself in the Mediterranean. The cost of sending 50,000 to 75,000 "volunteers" to Spain, in addition to the expenses incurred during the Ethiopian campaigns and the ongoing demands for increased armaments, led to the devaluation of the lira and the introduction of various levies on capital. 42
At the same time, Italy's involvement in Spain raised concerns for Great Britain and France, increasing tensions in the Mediterranean. Under these circumstances, Mussolini was compelled to strengthen ties with Germany, culminating in an agreement regarding Austria on October 26. This agreement laid the groundwork for Italo-German cooperation and can be viewed as the beginning of the Rome-Berlin Axis. On October 25, Germany recognized Italy's conquest of Ethiopia. 43
Between November 9 and 12, the Vienna Conference took place, where representatives from the Rome Protocol states - Italy, Austria, and Hungary - discussed matters of mutual interest. This conference marked the gradual strengthening of Italy's position in the Danube Basin. 44
On January 2, 1937, a "gentlemen's agreement" was signed between Italy and the United Kingdom. This agreement affirmed Spain's independence and territorial integrity, as well as assured freedom of passage through the Mediterranean. However, Langer notes that, in the long run, this agreement did not alleviate the suspicions surrounding Italian activities in the Mediterranean and the Near East. 45
In March 1937, Mussolini visited Libya, where he expressed his interest in and friendship toward Muslims worldwide, allowing himself to be hailed as their protector. Langer notes that this was viewed as a strategic move to counter British and French dominance over Arab countries. As a result, the Italians were accused of engaging in subversive propaganda throughout North Africa, Egypt, Palestine, and Syria. 46
On November 6, 1937, Italy joined the anti-communist pact between Germany and Japan, thereby completing the alliance of states that were challenging the peace treaties and the existing order. In line with this policy, the Italian government, which had long been critical of the League of Nations, announced on December 11 that Italy would withdraw from the League of Nations. 47
In January 1938, Italy announced a massive naval construction program to supplement the great rearmament plan introduced a year previously. 48
In March 1938, when Germany annexed Austria, Mussolini calmly accepted the situation. He remained in the background during the Czechoslovak crisis in September of that year. 49
On November 16, 1938, the Anglo-Italian Pact was ratified, leading Britain to recognize Italy's conquest of Ethiopia. In return, Italy promised to withdraw all troops from Spain following the conclusion of the Spanish Civil War. France also acknowledged Italy's conquest, but this led to a significant demonstration in the Italian Chamber on November 30, where there were loud demands for the cession of Corsica and Tunisia. Although no formal demands for territory were made to France, relations between the two powers became extremely strained, a situation exacerbated by the insurgent victories in Catalonia. 50
In March 1938, when Germany annexed Austria, Mussolini calmly accepted the situation. He remained in the background during the Czechoslovak crisis in September of that year. 51
On April 7, 1939, Italy invaded and conquered Albania, which voted for a personal union with Italy. 52 Brendan Simms states that Albania's occupation by Mussolini was a response to Hitler's annexation of Bohemia and Moravia. He explains that Mussolini was eager to 'compensate' for Hitler's territorial gains.53
On March 22, Italy concluded an alliance with Germany. From September 1 to 3, 1939, when Britain and France declared war on Germany, Italy maintained neutrality. 54
From June 1940, Hitler was already controlling not only all of Central Europe but also most of Poland, the entire northern half of France, the Low Countries, Denmark, and Norway. What remained of France was dominated by Germany. 55
In reaction to the collapse of France, Mussolini pushed ahead with his plans for a fascist empire in southeastern Europe and the Mediterranean. In June 1940, he launched a belated and completely unsuccessful offensive in southern France, but he was nonetheless rewarded with a zone of occupation. Shortly thereafter, he attacked the British in North Africa, where he was ignominiously repulsed. 56
Finally, in late October, Mussolini invaded Greece, hoping to establish Balkan hegemony to balance Hitler's dominance in Central and Western Europe. Once again, Italian forces became hopelessly bogged down as the Greeks put up a much stiffer resistance than expected. Additionally, in November 1940, the British sank much of the Italian fleet while it was anchored at Taranto. Brendan Simms observes that "Mussolini's humiliation was now complete. The string of defeats undermined the regime at home, where the first cracks were beginning to appear; foreign policy, long a tool of fascist governance in Italy, was now threatening to undermine it." 57
By the spring of 1943, the Allies occupied Sicily and subsequently landed in southern Italy. This final humiliation incited a revolt against Mussolini's foreign policy within the Fascist Grand Council, ultimately leading to Italy's switch of sides. 58
Benito Mussolini was forced to resign on July 25, 1943, and was succeeded by Marshal Pietro Badoglio. This coup ended the 21 years of Fascist rule in Italy. On July 28, Badoglio announced the dissolution of the Fascist Party and began negotiations for an armistice. The announcement of Italy's unconditional surrender was made on September 8. 59
Former Premier Mussolini was rescued by German troops and announced the formation of a Republican Fascist Party on September 15, in alliance with the German occupying army. 60
In February 1944, parts of southern Italy, along with Sardinia and Sicily, were returned to the jurisdiction of the Italian government. By June 1944, Anglo-American troops had entered Rome, and in August, Florence was captured. Following the final collapse of German divisions in Italy and their surrender from April 29 to May 1, the Fascist Republican Party dissolved. His anti-fascist captors executed Mussolini. 61
Italy’s rise toward great power status is reflected in its defense expenditures. In 1930, Italy spent $266 million on defense in current dollars. By 1937, this figure had risen to $1.235 billion (or $1.015 billion when adjusted for inflation). However, in 1938, the government sharply reduced military spending, lowering it to $746 million in current dollars (or $818 million adjusted for inflation). This dramatic cutback can be linked to the broader economic depression of the period.62
In 1937, Italy’s defense spending was nearly on par with that of the United Kingdom, which spent $1.245 billion (or $1.283 billion adjusted for inflation). Italy even outspent France, whose defense budget amounted to $890 million (or $862 million adjusted for inflation). For the United States, defense spending during this period was $1.032 billion ($1.079 billion when adjusted for inflation).63
In addition, Italy demonstrated a significant capacity for aircraft production. In 1932, Italy produced approximately 500 aircraft - surpassing both the United Kingdom (445) and Germany (36). By 1938, Italy had expanded its output to approximately 1,850 aircraft, thereby overtaking the United States (1,800) and France (1,382). 64
Italy’s Achilles’ heel was its sluggish economy, which was further weakened by the global economic depression. In 1929, Italy accounted for 3.3% of world manufacturing production, but by 1938 its share had declined to 2.9%. Among the major powers - France, the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, the United States, and Japan - Italy consistently held the smallest share. 65
These economic weaknesses were compounded by a shortage of essential raw materials and a persistent trade deficit. Since a nation’s economic strength directly shapes its purchasing power, and by extension its capacity for defense spending, Italy and its Fascist government were unable to sustain imperial ambitions. In practice, imperial expansion required financial and industrial resources that Italy simply did not possess.
Endnotes
1. William L. Langer, Italy, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 650.
2. Ibid., 654.
3. Ibid., 659.
4. Ibid., 660.
5. Ibid., 661.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid., 660.
8. Ibid., 661.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid., 662.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid., 663.
16. Ibid.
17. A.J.P. Taylor, The Diplomacy of War, 1914-18, in The Struggle for Mastery in Europe 1848-1918 (London, UK: Oxford University Press, 1954), 532.
18. Ibid., 544.
19. Ibid.
20. Ibid., 545.
21. Brendan Simms, Utopias, 1917-44, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 279-280.
22. Ibid., 279-283.
23. Ibid., 283-284.
24. William L. Langer, Europe: Italy and The Papacy, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 988.
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid., 989.
27. Ibid.
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid.
31. Ibid., 989-990.
32. William L. Langer, Europe: International Affairs, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 963.
32. Ibid.
33. Langer, Europe: Italy and The Papacy, 990.
34. Ibid.
35. Langer, Europe: International Affairs, 963.
36. Langer, Europe: Italy and The Papacy, 990-991.
37. Ibid., 991.
38. Simms, Utopias, 1917-44, 301.
39. Langer, Europe: Italy and The Papacy, 991.
40. Ibid.
41. Ibid.
42. Ibid.
43. Ibid.
44. Ibid.
45. Ibid., 991-992.
46. Ibid., 992.
47. Ibid.
48. Ibid.
49. Ibid.
50. Ibid.
51. Ibid.
52. Ibid.
53. Ibid.
54. Ibid.
55. Simms, Utopias, 1917-44, 312.
56. Ibid., 312-313.
57. Ibid., 313.
58. Ibid., 323..
59. Langer, The Second World War: The Invasion of Italy, in An Encyclopedia of World History: Ancient, Medieval, and Modern, Chronologically Arranged, ed. William L. Langer (Boston, MA: Riverside Press, 1940), 1162.
60. Ibid.
61. Ibid., 1162-1163.
62. Paul Kennedy, The Coming of a Bipolar World and the Crisis of the “Middle Powers”: Part Two, 1919-1942, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London: Unwin Hyman Limited, 1988), 296
63. Ibid.
64. Ibid., 324.
65. Ibid., 330.
XX. The Soviet Union v. the United States
Period – The mid-to-late 20th century
Ruling Power – The United States
Rising Power – The Soviet Union
Domain – Global dominance
Outcome - No war
"The relative power of the United States in world affairs during the interwar years was, curiously, in inverse ratio to that both the USSR and Germany. That is to say, it was inordinately strong in the 1920s, but then declined more than any other of the Great Powers during the depressed 1930s, recovering only (and partially) at the very end of this period." - Paul Kennedy in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1988, 327.
"To another school of Russian statecraft Alaska could have served as a bridge between the two great nations of the future, Russia and America." - J.M.K. Vyvyan in The New Cambridge Modern History: The Zenith of European Power, 1830-70, 2008, 384.
"The resolution of the German Question through detente did not last. Within a few years, Europe was convulsed by a Soviet attempt to leverage its global gains for European advantage." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle For Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 388.
“The three decades since 1945 were dominated by the Cold War between East and West.” 1
According to Paul Kennedy, at the end of the Second World War, Germany's bid to dominate Europe was crumbling, just as Japan's efforts in the Far East and Pacific were failing. Britain was also declining, and the previously anticipated bipolar world had emerged, with only the United States and the USSR remaining as major powers. Among these two, the American "superpower" was distinctly superior.2
Kennedy explains that "simply because much of the rest of the world was either exhausted by the war or still in a stage of colonial 'underdevelopment,' American power in 1945 was, for want of another term, artificially high, like, say, Britain's in 1815." 3
According to William McNeill, by 1945, both Wilsonism and Leninism had lost their initial allure. However, the significant military capabilities of the United States and the Soviet Union more than compensated for a generation's worth of ideological disillusionment. At the end of World War II, he explains, only these two superpowers could manage the complex logistics of modern warfare based on their domestic resources.4
The numbers are significant in this context. By 1945, the United States had produced 49,761 aircraft, while the Soviet Union produced 20,900 aircraft in the same year. Regarding tank production, the United States manufactured 17,500 tanks in 1944, down from 29,500 in 1943. In comparison, the Soviet Union produced 29,000 tanks in 1944.5
Additionally, the US had developed the atomic bomb by 1945, successfully testing it on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Brendan Simms suggests that the US was determined to maintain its nuclear monopoly. In August 1946, Congress passed the Atomic Energy Act, which prohibited the US administration from transferring nuclear technology to any other country, including close allies. 6
Relations between the Soviet Union and the West deteriorated sharply in Europe and its Middle Eastern periphery. Stalin ruthlessly suppressed all independent political expression in Poland, violating the Yalta Agreement in the process. In his zone of occupation in Germany, he also repressed political freedoms. However, in Hungary, Romania, and Czechoslovakia, Stalin was momentarily willing to allow some degree of democratic politics, as long as those countries remained firmly within his strategic sphere of influence.7
Brendan Simms argues that the growing breakdown in trust between the Soviet Union and the Western allies was increasingly evident in both public statements and secret memoranda. In late February 1946, George Kennan, a young U.S. diplomat at the embassy in Moscow, responded to a State Department request for an analysis of Soviet policy with a blunt confidential memorandum that later became known as the "Long Telegram." Kennan warned that "We have here a political force committed fanatically to the belief that with the United States there can be no permanent modus vivendi, that it is desirable and necessary that the internal harmony of our society be disrupted, our traditional way of life be destroyed, the international authority of our state be broken, if Soviet power is to be secure." 8
The feeling of increasing strategic and ideological confrontation was also evident in Moscow. In September 1946, the Soviet diplomat Nikolai Novikov warned that "The foreign policy of the United States, which reflects the imperialist tendencies of American monopolistic capital, is characterized in the postwar period by a striving for world supremacy." 9
By spring 1947, the Council of Foreign Ministers in Moscow was unable to reach a consensus on Germany. U.S. leaders rejected Soviet demands for reparations from the western zones, warning that accepting such demands would grant the Soviets control over all of Germany, including the Ruhr region, which would ultimately jeopardize the entire European continent. 10
Stalin viewed the establishment of Bizonia, the currency reform, and the Marshall Plan as steps leading to the creation of a West German state and, ultimately, the reunification of Germany under Allied control. To counter this perceived threat to his influence in Europe, Stalin withdrew his representative from the Four Power Allied Control Council in late March 1948. By the end of June of that year, shortly after the currency reform, he imposed a blockade on the Allied sectors of Berlin, cutting off water, electricity, and all land routes into the city. The West responded by adopting a 'containment' policy, especially in central Europe. Allied transport planes supplied Berlin by air throughout the winter of 1948-1949, compelling Stalin to lift the blockade. 11
In early April 1949, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Portugal, and Italy joined together to establish the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The signatory nations agreed that an armed attack against any one or more of them in Europe or North America would be regarded as an attack against all members, which would trigger a collective self-defense response from the entire alliance. Simms asserts that "the treaty was primarily directed against the Soviet Union, but for many of the signatories, it also helped to guard against the revival of German power.12
The Western Allies chose to embrace democracy in Germany as a strategic move to prevent Stalin's influence and to integrate the country into a united front against communism. In late May 1949, the American, British, and French zones of occupation were combined to establish the Federal Republic of Germany, which soon became known as West Germany. 13
Stalin reacted to the creation of West Germany by establishing the German Democratic Republic in the same year. He also advanced the Soviet nuclear program, and in August 1949, the Soviet Union successfully detonated its first atomic bomb. Brendan Simms argues that, despite the Soviet arsenal remaining significantly inferior to that of the United States for many years, the fear of being blackmailed by the American nuclear monopoly had been eliminated. 14
In January 1950, in response to Stalin's development of a nuclear bomb, his policies regarding Germany, and the rise of militant communism in East Asia, President Truman authorized the construction of a more powerful nuclear weapon - the hydrogen bomb. A few months later, the United States government issued National Security Directive 68, which called for significantly increased investment in armaments to address the global challenge posed by communism effectively. 15
In 1953, the Soviet Union tested a hydrogen bomb just nine months after the United States tested it. Additionally, the Soviet government had invested significant resources in harnessing German wartime technology related to rocketry. By 1955, the USSR was mass-producing medium-range ballistic missiles, known as the SS-3. Then, in 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that traveled over a distance of five thousand miles, using the same rocket engine that had propelled Sputnik, the world's first artificial satellite, into orbit in October of that year. Alarmed by these Russian advances, Washington committed massive resources to its own intercontinental ballistic missiles to close the "missile gap." 16
Beginning in 1960, both sides rapidly advanced their ability to launch ballistic missiles from submarines. By this period, a diverse array of battlefield nuclear weapons and shorter-range rockets had already been developed. Paul Kennedy emphasizes that a significant dimension of this rivalry was the formation of global alliances by both Russia and the West, coupled with a competitive drive to secure new partners or, at the very least, to deter Third World countries from aligning with the opposing side. 17
In 1960, a significant breakthrough occurred in Latin America when the USSR signed its first trade agreement with Cuba, which was already becoming embroiled in tensions with an irritated United States. 18
One of the most significant developments of the Soviet arms buildup since 1960 was the monumental expansion of its surface fleet. This growth was demonstrated both physically, through the construction of increasingly powerful, missile-equipped destroyers and cruisers, as well as medium-sized helicopter carriers and aircraft carriers, and geographically, as the Soviet navy began deploying more vessels into the Mediterranean and beyond. The fleet extended its presence to the Indian Ocean, West Africa, Indochina, and Cuba, where it was able to take advantage of a growing number of bases. 19
In mid-August 1961, Moscow finally permitted Ulbricht to build a large barrier along the zonal border in Berlin to stop further emigration.20
In May 1962, Khrushchev authorized the deployment of medium and intermediate-range nuclear missiles to Cuba as a way to exert pressure on Washington's southern flank, aiming to weaken its position in Germany. Ultimately, he hoped this move would compel the withdrawal of American missiles that were stationed along his own southern border with Turkey.21
In mid-October 1962, U.S. reconnaissance detected the deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba before it was completed. President Kennedy demanded their immediate withdrawal, as these missiles could strike American cities with little to no warning and were a clear violation of the Monroe Doctrine. In response, he imposed a naval blockade around Cuba. As Brendan Simms asserts, "the world now moved rapidly toward a nuclear confrontation." 22 Khrushchev backed down and withdrew the missiles in exchange for a promise to remove the Jupiter missiles from Turkey, thereby averting war. 23
Soon, de Gaulle of France challenged Washington's security dominance over the European continent. He sought to undermine any European political cooperation that was not strictly intergovernmental or, at the very least, under French leadership. During a disastrous state visit in July 1964, he criticized the West German government and bluntly told them to choose between Paris and Washington. To demonstrate his seriousness, de Gaulle also began making overtures to Moscow starting in mid-1964. 24
In April 1965, the French and Soviet governments issued a joint communiqué stating that Germany must permanently renounce nuclear weapons. Shortly afterwards, President de Gaulle followed through on his threats against the European Economic Community (EEC). Starting in July 1965, he paralyzed the community with his "empty chair" policy, in which French representatives boycotted meetings of the Council of Ministers. President Lyndon Johnson, worn out by French objections and eager to avoid provoking the Soviet Union further—while also becoming increasingly distracted by the situation in Vietnam—allowed the Multilateral Force (MLF) initiative to fade away. As a result, tensions between East and West declined, and West Germany abolished its Ministry of Atomic Affairs. 25
Washington sought to reduce its commitments in Europe. In 1966, the US withdrew 30,000 troops from Germany without consulting the West German government.26
In June 1967, President Johnson and Soviet Prime Minister Alexei Kosygin met in Glassboro, New Jersey. Six months later, NATO powers adopted the Harmel Report, which stated that while there would be no reduction in military security, every effort should be made to explore a policy of détente with the Soviet Union to reduce the likelihood of war. 27
In 1968, Richard Nixon, alongside his National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, assumed power with a clear vision for how the United States should restore its global standing. The Nixon administration set several objectives: to withdraw from Vietnam 'with honor' while ensuring that the regime in Saigon could withstand renewed communist aggression; to rebuild the strained alliances with European partners; and to establish a new balance with Moscow and Beijing. 28
In April 1969, Charles de Gaulle resigned from his position following a defeat in a referendum. 29
In mid-August 1970, the new Chancellor of West Germany, Willy Brandt, concluded the Treaty of Moscow with the Soviet Union. This treaty effectively recognized the German Democratic Republic and the disputed Oder-Neisse border with Poland. Germany explicitly renounced any attempts to seek a revision of this border through the use of force. 30
In 1972, the first Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement (SALT I) was signed between the United States and the Soviet Union. An anti-ballistic missile agreement limited the use of defensive weapons, ensuring that 'mutual assured destruction' would remain guaranteed. 31
At the end of 1972, the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany signed a Basic Treaty to regulate their relations as two halves of a single nation. Despite intense pressure from the Soviet Union and East Germany, West Germany refused to recognize the GDR or send a fully accredited ambassador. Instead, it agreed to establish a "permanent representation" and set up a ministry exclusively dedicated to "Inter-German" affairs. In exchange, the GDR regime agreed to allow some carefully controlled travel between the two states. Both Germanies were subsequently admitted to the United Nations. 32
Brendan Simms notes that in the mid-1970s, the Soviet Union had ample reason to feel satisfied. The United States faced humiliation in Vietnam and was deeply divided both politically and socially, a division reflected in larger Western European states as well. In November 1974, the Vladivostok Agreement marked a significant milestone, as Moscow achieved nuclear parity while maintaining superiority in conventional military capabilities. Towards the end of 1974, Moscow authorized the testing of the SS-20, a mobile intermediate-range missile designed to counter NATO's perceived advantage in forward-based systems. 33
In that same year, Jackson convinced Congress to pass the Jackson-Vanik Amendment. This amendment was attached to the Nixon administration's Trade Bill with the USSR and called for a firm commitment from the United States to uphold fundamental human rights. It denied "most favored nation" status to any non-market economy that restricts its citizens' right or opportunity to emigrate. 34
The Soviet Union increased its support for subversive groups in Europe, especially Germany, and intervened more assertively in the Third World. By the end of 1975, the entire southern flank of NATO was in crisis. 35
In January 1977, Jimmy Carter was inaugurated as President of the United States. The new administration adopted a twin-track strategy. Carter pledged to uphold moral principles and human rights in U.S. foreign policy, which indicated a confrontational stance against both communist and right-wing dictatorships. At the same time, Carter aimed to reduce international tensions by seeking an understanding with the Soviet Union on arms control and by mediating efforts to resolve regional conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. 36
In 1979, a series of crises emerged that would influence global and European geopolitics until the end of the Cold War and beyond. In January of that year, the Shah of Iran fled into exile after months of protests against his oppressive domestic policies and his diplomatic alignment with the United States and Israel. The new Islamic Republic of Iran became an avowedly revolutionary force, with a constitution that pledged to exert continuous effort until political, economic, and cultural unity was achieved in the Islamic world. Shortly after, a group of students stormed the U.S. embassy and took more than sixty diplomats hostage. A month later, with U.S. encouragement, China launched a limited but large-scale military assault on the North Vietnamese border as a warning to both Hanoi and Moscow. Tensions also heightened along the Sino-Soviet border. Additionally, in July, Saddam Hussein seized absolute power in Iraq, and a year later, he launched an attack on Iran. 37
At the close of 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. In January 1980, President Carter introduced what has come to be known as the 'Carter Doctrine.' He pinpointed the region threatened by Soviet forces in Afghanistan. He declared that any attempt by an external power to exert control over the Persian Gulf would be regarded as an affront to the vital interests of the United States. Such a situation would be met with a response by any means necessary, including military intervention. Furthermore, he withdrew the SALT II treaty from the Senate, effectively terminating the ratification process and rendering the agreement null and void. A large-scale program of conventional military expansion, which was already underway, was accelerated. Over 30,000 additional troops were permanently deployed to Europe. NATO members faced considerable pressure to increase their defense spending. After some debate, it was decided to launch "Operation Cyclone," which involved fully arming the Afghan Mujahedin resistance against the Soviet Union through the Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI. 38
The changes in government in the United States and the United Kingdom led to new strategic approaches by the West towards the Soviet Union. In late January 1981, newly elected President Ronald Reagan indicated a shift away from the policy of détente. He believed that Moscow had taken advantage of U.S. weaknesses following the Vietnam War. Reagan was determined to negotiate from a position of strength. He aimed to leverage the United States' long-term economic superiority to apply significant pressure on the Soviet system, ultimately compelling Moscow to engage in a realistic arms control agreement. 39
In November 1981, Reagan began negotiations on Theater Nuclear Forces, which included intermediate and short-range missiles, in Geneva. Eighteen months later, he announced plans to develop a space-based missile defense system known as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). This system was intended to prevent Soviet warheads from reaching their targets in the United States. Brendan Simms suggests that, in addition to military and economic pressure, Reagan also launched an ideological offensive against the communist bloc. The Soviet Union was famously condemned as an "evil empire." Furthermore, Reagan supported religious and political dissidents and placed the promotion of democracy at the center of his grand strategy. The Reagan administration believed that democracies were reliable safeguards against Soviet expansionism. 40
In 1983, the United States established a new unified command for the Middle East known as CENTCOM. Meanwhile, Israel, along with Egypt, Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon, continued to fall under the existing US European Command (USEUCOM). Additionally, the figures for US aid to Israel "told their own tale about American priorities." 41
Moscow felt surrounded by enemies across Europe, the Far East, and the Indian Ocean. It was particularly concerned about the increasing power of German forces. For this reason, at a meeting of the Pact in Berlin in mid-October 1983, it was agreed to use all available means to prevent NATO from gaining military superiority. Consequently, Moscow deployed larger numbers of intermediate-range nuclear missiles on the central front. 42
Meanwhile, the Soviet economy was stagnating. The gap between capitalism and communism, which had appeared to narrow in the 1960s, was growing again. It was not clear how long the huge costs of armaments could be met. "The Soviet economy was crippled by inefficient central planning, low oil prices, widespread corruption and incompetence. The Soviet Union was therefore no longer economically in a position to support the demands of the Red Army and a whole array of needy allies in eastern Europe and the Third World. A fresh approach was needed." 43
Gorbachev introduced a policy of reconstruction, known as Perestroika, which aimed at a revolutionary acceleration of the socio-economic and cultural development of Soviet society, alongside a policy of openness called Glasnost. He believed that increasing freedom of expression would engage the intelligentsia and help reduce incompetence and corruption. As a result, dissidents were released, police repression was significantly relaxed, civil rights groups began to form, the Russian Orthodox Church experienced a revival, and a vibrant public sphere emerged from the underground into the open. However, Gorbachev did not discuss the establishment of democracy. Instead, he focused on promoting economic modernization to strengthen the state, without accompanying it with political participation. 44
On the international stage, Gorbachev invited the West to resume negotiations on arms control, provided that the U.S. agreed to shelve the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and begin to withdraw its involvement from the Third World. However, in crucial areas, Gorbachev's initial strategy reflected traditional Soviet geopolitics. He intensified military efforts in Afghanistan, increased the deployment of theater nuclear weapons in Europe, and attempted to create divisions within the Western alliance by visiting Paris in 1985. 45
In early December 1987, the United States and the Soviet Union reached an agreement at the Washington Summit to abolish all intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe, known as the INF Treaty. Gorbachev also committed to withdrawing from Afghanistan. 46
Gorbachev's primary concern was the German Democratic Republic and the increasing importance of West Germany. 47 Starting in 1987, Soviet experts began predicting the imminent collapse of their ally.48
The high cost of maintaining Reagan's armament programs compelled Moscow to begin loosening its control. In December 1988, Gorbachev announced a unilateral reduction of Soviet forces by half a million troops, primarily in Eastern Europe, and the withdrawal of all short-range nuclear missiles. He also indicated publicly that he would permit the Warsaw Pact countries to pursue their own paths. 49
The ideological and geopolitical vacuum that emerged in Central and Eastern Europe was quickly filled by a democratic revolution that spread across the Warsaw Pact in 1989. A democratic-nationalist movement began to permeate the communist political landscape. 50
In March 1990, the Conservative Christian Democrats won the East German elections, effectively ending any possibility for the German Democratic Republic to survive as an independent state. Additionally, large demonstrations in favor of German unity took place around the same time. Meanwhile, Lithuania declared its independence, followed by Latvia and Estonia. The Red Army was facing a significant ideological crisis, making it an unreliable tool for maintaining Soviet power both domestically and internationally. In June of that year, the Soviet Communist Party was disbanded as the official governing party. By mid-July 1990, both Ukraine and Russia declared their sovereignty, throwing the entire union into uncertainty. 51
"Right at the top of the agenda was Germany." In late November 1989, Chancellor Kohl took the initiative by announcing a 'ten-point' program aimed at addressing the divisions in Europe and Germany. He proposed a confederation of the two German states, which would eventually form a federation and ultimately lead to a unified Germany. Gorbachev initially opposed the reunification of Germany, while Washington supported it. In May 1990, the Soviet leader ultimately agreed to German unity. Moscow received private assurances that NATO would not expand any further eastward.52
In early October 1990, Germany was reunified. A month later, the Soviet Union, the United States, and European powers agreed on the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), within the framework of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), significantly reducing the number of American and Soviet forces deployed in Europe. All Russian troops were to be withdrawn from Germany by 1994. 53
In early December 1991, the people of Ukraine voted for independence in a referendum. A week later, the leaders of the constituent republics agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union. This decision led to Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, the Central Asian republics, and the Caucasian republics all becoming sovereign states. Faced with this irreversible situation, Gorbachev resigned at the end of the month. 54
The conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union represents the classic Thucydides Trap case, though it never escalated into direct military confrontation. At the end of World War II, the United States had already achieved global military and economic dominance, along with a monopoly on nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union, a formidable power in its own right, began to expand its influence and challenge the West.
The interests of these rival powers clashed repeatedly over various issues, including Germany, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, in the Vietnam War, in Afghanistan, and elsewhere. Despite these confrontations and moments when war seemed imminent, direct military conflict between the two superpowers was avoided. Instead, their competition unfolded through proxy wars, ideological rivalries, and strategic maneuvering across the globe.
Endnotes
1. Brendan Simms, Partitions, 1945-73, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 386.
2. Paul Kennedy, Stability and Change in a Bipolar World, 1943-1980, in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1988), 357.
3. Ibid.
4. William H. McNeill, Conclusion, in The Rise of the West (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), 794.
5. Kennedy, Stability and Change in a Bipolar World, 1943-1980, 353-354.
6. Simms, Partitions, 1945-73, 333.
7. Ibid., 335.
8. Ibid., 335-336.
9. Ibid., 336.
10. Ibid., 342.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid., 346-347.
15. Ibid., 347.
16. Kennedy, Stability and Change in a Bipolar World, 1943-1980, 388.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid., 391.
19. Ibid., 396.
20. Simms, Partitions, 1945-73, 367.
21. Ibid., 367-368.
22. Ibid., 368.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid., 371.
25.Ibid., 372.
26. Ibid., 375.
27. Ibid., 376.
28. Ibid., 380.
29. Ibid.
30. Ibid.
31. Ibid., 384.
32. Ibid., 382.
33. Brendan Simms, Democracies, 1974-2011, in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 388-389.
34. Ibid., 391.
35. Ibid., 389.
36. Ibid., 395.
37. Ibid., 396-397.
38. Ibid., 398.
39. Ibid., 400.
40. Ibid.
41. Ibid., 402.
42. Ibid.
41. Ibid., 404-405.
42. Ibid., 405.
43. Ibid., 405-406.
44. Ibid., 407.
45. Ibid.
46. Ibid., 408.
47. Ibid., 406.
48. Ibid., 408.
49. Ibid., 409.
50. Ibid., 410.
51. Ibid., 411.
52. Ibid., 411-412.
53. Ibid., 413.
54. Ibid., 415.
XXI. The United Kingdom & France v. Germany
Period – The late 20th century
Ruling Power – The United Kingdom & France
Rising Power – Germany
Domain – Political influence in Europe
Outcome - No war
"The British and French governments were also firmly opposed to German unification, which they believed would upset the European balance of power... Over the next months or so, these powers searched for ways to prevent, or at least slow, the unification of East and West Germany." - Brendan Simms in Europe: The Struggle For Supremacy From 1453 to The Present, 2013, 412.
The fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany raised concerns across Europe. Brendan Simms notes that the governments of the United Kingdom and France were firmly opposed to German unification, fearing it would disrupt the European balance of power. Additionally, the new governments of Poland and Czechoslovakia were anxious about potential German demands for border revisions and the return of refugees. Simms highlights that in the following months, these nations sought ways to prevent, or at least slow down, the unification of East and West Germany.1
French President François Mitterrand visited East Germany (GDR) to bolster Hans Modrow's government in its efforts to resist swift integration into the Federal Republic of Germany. Simms notes that the most significant opposition came from Margaret Thatcher, who was concerned that a unified Germany would once again exert dominance over Europe. In response to her apprehensions, she convened a special conference of experts at her country residence, Chequers, to evaluate whether a united Germany could be trusted. The United States took an early and clear stance in favor of German unification. Washington's main concern was to ensure that a unified Germany would not disrupt the cohesion of the Atlantic Alliance. Gorbachev consistently stated that he would not accept the reunification of Germany. By late May, the Soviet leader ultimately agreed to the idea of German unity. 2
Germany remained a NATO member after the reunification. A month later, the United States and European powers agreed to the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) within the framework of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE). This treaty significantly reduced the number of American and Soviet forces stationed in Europe, and all Russian troops were scheduled to leave Germany by 1994. 3
The costs of German unification had a significant impact on the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), which was designed to ensure that most currencies within the community would fluctuate only within predetermined bands. After some hesitation, Britain finally joined the ERM in October 1990, coinciding with German unification. 4
However, the problem was that German interest rates were high, a response to the substantial inflationary threat posed by the enormous costs of reunification. This situation put pressure on other European economies, particularly the British economy. Britain was forced to intervene to support the pound against the German mark, resulting in significant costs to the Treasury at a time when a lower interest rate was desperately needed for exports, as the country was sliding into recession. 5
Political struggles arose within NATO among Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. France aimed to replace the existing US-dominated structure with a two-tier NATO, in which European nations would handle all but the most serious threats to Western Europe. The United Kingdom, on the other hand, opposed the alliance's expansion. Defense Secretary Malcolm Rifkind believed that it could not provide adequate collective security in Eastern Europe. In contrast, Germany called for NATO's eastern enlargement, as this would secure its own territory and relieve it from the frontline status it had held since the end of the Second World War. Moreover, Germany was determined to maintain foreign forces, especially American troops, in the country to ensure its security and preserve its western orientation. 6
A month after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the European Council met in Strasbourg in early December 1989 to discuss the changes taking place in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly the growing influence of Germany. They decided to expedite the creation of a single currency by establishing an intergovernmental conference on European Monetary Union, which began its work at the Dublin Council in late June 1990. Essentially, the German mark was to be relinquished as part of the cost of reunifying Germany. 7
In 1992, the European Community summit held in Maastricht established the European Union. 8
Yugoslavia was the first significant challenge for the newly established European Community, which later evolved into the European Union. Initially, all member states agreed that it would be best to keep Yugoslavia unified in preparation for its eventual incorporation into the Union. However, once Slobodan Milosevic's ambitions to create a "Greater Serbia" became evident, the strategies of the European Union began to diverge significantly. 9
The United Kingdom did not see any pressing national interests at stake in halting ethnic cleansing in the Balkans. The UK feared being drawn into a prolonged guerrilla war and generally displayed skepticism about intervening for ethical rather than pragmatic reasons. On the other hand, France was determined to prevent the expansion of German influence to the south, thereby thwarting the creation of a West German-dominated Mitteleuropa. France's concerns stemmed from the fact that, at the end of 1991, Germany pressured the European Community into recognizing Slovenia and Croatia. This move contributed to the end of the war in Croatia, but it had little impact on the subsequent events in Bosnia. Nevertheless, it convinced France that West Germany had underlying ambitions in the region. 10
The United Kingdom and France had the capability for military intervention; however, they chose not to intervene against Milosevic. Germany cited constitutional barriers to acting outside the NATO area. It invoked the Kohl Doctrine, which prohibited Germany from undertaking military action in any country that had experienced Nazi occupation during the Second World War. As Brendan Simms notes, "one way or another, 'Europe' proved to be toothless." 11
Starting in 1993, the United States began advocating for NATO military intervention to support the Bosnian government. However, Britain and France opposed American proposals, arguing that such actions would interfere in a civil war, were unlikely to achieve military success, and could escalate the conflict. In the spring of 1993, they thwarted a mission led by Warren Christopher, who aimed to encourage European nations to consider lifting the arms embargo on the Bosnian government and conducting NATO air strikes against the Bosnian Serb army. Meanwhile, the ethnic cleansing persisted, culminating in the Srebrenica massacre of July 1995, when Bosnian Serb forces murdered thousands of Muslim men and boys in the eastern enclave of Srebrenica. 12
In 1994, the question of military action could no longer be avoided when NATO required the cooperation of German crews for the AWACS early-warning aircraft, which supported the maintenance of the Bosnian no-fly zone. Kohl's coalition partner, the FDP, agreed to the deployment but then took the government - essentially itself - to the Federal Constitutional Court to challenge the legality of the measure. The court ruled that the deployment was constitutional, and a year later, German aircraft participated in the NATO aerial armada that helped bring an end to the war. Brendan Simms asserts that "the Bosnian War, in other words, began the remilitarization of German foreign policy." 13
In 1997, Tony Blair, the newly appointed Prime Minister of Britain, attributed the failures in Yugoslavia to the previous government. He contended that Europe was the sole avenue through which Britain could exert its power and influence. To preserve its historical role as a global player, he argued that Britain needed to be an integral part of European politics. 14
The concept of "humanitarian intervention" became the means by which Germany accepted its responsibilities as a great power. While the Kohl Doctrine stated that German troops should never be deployed in regions where the Wehrmacht had committed atrocities, the new 'Fischer Doctrine' asserted that it was precisely the existence of these Nazi crimes that made Germany uniquely responsible for preventing such events from occurring again. 15
Political struggles resurfaced among European Union members again in the early 21st century. Spain, France, and Italy were primarily focused on the Mediterranean region, concerned about the belt of unstable North African dictatorships to the south that threatened to unleash a surge of economic and political migrants toward Europe. Meanwhile, Eastern European countries were primarily worried about Russian power and looked to the EU, particularly NATO, for containment.16
In line with its new strategic concept, NATO addressed these concerns at its Prague Summit in November 2002 by initiating accession talks with Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Ukraine also expressed interest in joining the alliance. During this period, the positions of Paris and Berlin aligned, as they grew increasingly skeptical of eastward expansion. 17
The Europeans found themselves divided again when Washington decided to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. The United Kingdom strongly supported this plan, while France and Germany opposed it. They believed that Hussein did not pose a serious threat to the West and were concerned that waging war to depose him would distract from the ongoing fight against terrorism. During the 2002 election campaign, Chancellor Schröder of Germany assured the public that Germany would not support an attack on Iraq, even if the United Nations authorized it. 18
Tensions resurfaced during the euro crisis. Initially, Germany, worried that a default by Greece or Ireland could jeopardize its own banking system, aligned itself with France to protect bondholders. However, by mid-2011, Chancellor Merkel had changed Germany's stance, insisting that international investors should absorb some of the losses rather than placing the entire burden on taxpayers. This shift created friction with France, as its banks had significant exposure to Greek debt. 19
Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have long experienced political tensions regarding their influence in Europe, a rivalry that has persisted from the late 19th century into the early 21st century. These conflicts often reemerge within organizations such as the European Union and NATO, highlighting the ongoing struggle for political leadership and strategic dominance on the continent.
Endnotes
1. Brendan Simms, Democracies, 1974-2011 in Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy, from 1453 to the Present (United Kingdom: Penguin Books, 2013), 412.
2. Ibid..
3. Ibid., 414.
4. Ibid., 413.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid., 415.
7. Ibid., 416.
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid., 417.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid., 419-420.
13. Ibid., 422-423.
14. Ibid., 422.
15. Ibid., 426.
16. Ibid., 432.
17. Ibid.
18. Ibid., 434.
19. Ibid., 444.