Conclusion

Both the original research and our subsequent replication demonstrate a high probability of war when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one. Notably, however, no such wars have occurred in the post-Westphalian era, where power struggles between rising and ruling states have been resolved without large-scale conflict. This pattern, identified in both Harvard's study and NYU's replication, highlights the importance of newly emerging buffers and stabilizing mechanisms that were absent in the pre- and early Westphalian periods.

Recently, states have more options for achieving their geopolitical objectives without resorting to direct military confrontations than they did in the past. The new characteristics of the rules-based international order significantly reduce the likelihood of war and create a substantial buffer against conflict.

In conclusion, if a conflict were to arise between the United States and China, it would likely take the form of economic statecraft, cyber operations, or competition reminiscent of the Cold War. In the worst-case scenario, the U.S. and China might engage in a proxy war rather than a direct military confrontation. A direct military conflict between these two superpowers would be mutually destructive, with catastrophic consequences not only for the countries involved but also for the global community as a whole.