"As the socialist world crumbled in the late 1980s and a new order came into being, Deng Xiaoping put forward a 'strategic guideline' to reduce the risk of American-led balancing and containment, to blunt American leverage over China, and thereby to secure conditions for China's development and autonomy." -  Rush Doshi in The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, 2021, 48.

"Building a credible navy, however, was a different story. That required large economic resources. It was not until the economy had expanded before the Chinese could start to build such a navy. That did not begin in earnest until the 1990s." - Wang Gungwu in China Reconnects: Joining a Deep-rooted Past to a New World Order, 2019, 14.

Here, we present a comparison of the U.S. Chinese military capabilities across five domains: land, sea, air, space, & cyberspace. This analysis builds on Barry Posen's concept of "command of the commons," which originally identified three domains - sea, air, and space - as the primary domains of the U.S. dominance.1  We expand this framework by incorporating land and cyberspace in order to capture the broader spectrum of contemporary military competition.

I. Land

II. Sea

III. Air

IV. Space

V. Cyberspace

From Thucydides To Kindleberger?

In 2017, Joseph S. Nye introduced the concept of the "Kindleberger Trap," drawing on the work of economic historian Charles Kindleberger. The term highlights concerns that, as China's influence expands, it may benefit from, but not sustain, the international order it did not create. The Kindleberger Trap refers to the risk that if China eventually replaces the United States as the leading global power, it may fail to assume responsibility for providing essential global public goods. 1

Our second research project, "Testing the Kindleberger Trap," seeks to elucidate this scenario while proposing potential outcomes. We anticipate completing the project in October 2025.

Endnotes

1.  Barry R. Posen, “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony,” International Security 28, no. 1 (Summer 2003).

2. Joseph S. Nye JR., “The Kindleberger Trap,” Project Syndicate, January 9, 2017, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-kindleberger-trap-by-joseph-s--nye-2017-01