The Story

In November 1983, the NATO exercise known as Able Archer 83 brought the world close to the brink of conflict. Exercise preparations and troop movements  appeared to be preparations for a real conflict.  The exercise was not clearly communicated to the Warsaw Pact and caused significant tensions.  This nearly derailed the future of Europe but fortunately the exercise culminated without any serious miscalculation.

Rolling into year 1984, the story departs the historical timeline. Now keen on an initial slowdown of buildup in Germany, NATO and Warsaw Pact agree to pull back some Air Defence assets. The Nike Hercules removed from Germany, and Soviet Union keeps most of its S-300 sites farther back. Similarly, several air force squadrons are moved towards France and Poland, in turn. Both equipment and materiel see fewer counts in the divided Germany, with two batteries of Patriots being the tip of the spear.

That offers little comfort by Christmas of 1985. NATO’s new Secretary General grew suspicious of the Soviet Union’s planned Zapad exercise. He advocated to SHAPEfor a renewed Able Archer exercise to test NATO’s ability to rapidly generate forces to deter the Warsaw Pact and demonstrate credible NATO readiness. Able Archer 86 began in February 1986 with intelligence preparation, logistics staging, and force flow and troop movements by March. Maneuver of air defense assets keep not only the air defenders awake at night, but also sow doubt in Warsaw Pact leaders’ minds.  The Warsaw Pact began to reposition their defenses in kind.   The Warsaw Pact, believing the NATO troop movements to be a preparation for conflict increased alert postures and the quantity and forces participating in Zapad 86, despite the protests of the German Democratic Republic.

In Belgium, SHAPE leadership grew alarmed. Widespread hysteria of supposed Soviet war preparations heightened tensions. The staff and state leadership convinced themselves and one another that the Soviets intended to start a war. Slowly, Able Archer 86 became preparation for war no one thinks can be avoided.

However, the Warsaw Pact did not attack. By April, some NATO members debated the possibility that they were mistaken. But if so, why were the Warsaw Pact members in such a state of readiness? Surely, this meant they were taking their time and a fatal thought set in: NATO must attack first to spoil the Pact’s plans, before it was too late.

Much like the German Democratic Republic, West Germany strongly protested, holding that it mayall be a giant mistake and that patience was needed. However, this call for patience did not convince the alliance’s most influential members, and the gears of war were  turning by May of 1986.

NATO squadrons were repositioned in Germany, and even France returned  to the NATO Command Structure.

Now, decisions are made.  On the 27th of May, 1986, NATO forces will penetrate the wall and spoil the imagined Soviet war plans in a misguided attempt at preemptive self-defense.

But akin to the red balloons in the sky, Pact’s offensive was simply a mirage that has now fueled the faithful miscalculation, leading to flashpoint in Central Europe, and much like Kriemhild and Brünhild, the German halves will be torn apart.