The United States 2018 Midterm Election Results

It has been more than two years now since the upset presidential election of Republican Donald Trump in 2016. The year was paired with other right-wing nationalistic sentiments and victories in the Brexit vote and expansions of representations in government. American and global politics have been relentless in their rhetoric, surprises and shifts in change. It has also been a year since the off-election in 2017, which saw a rejection for the Trump politics in New Jersey, Virginia and municipal races, a canary in the coal mine for Republicans in the 2018 midterm election. All 435 House of Representatives seats, 35 Senate seats, 36 Gubernatorial offices, ballot measures, and many state, local and territorial races were on the ballot. Although he himself was not on the ballot, this election is seen as a referendum on Donald Trump’s performance as President.

Entering this election, the Democratic Party was the favourite in capturing the House of Representatives, flipping several governorships and a wave of state and local elections as well as victories in progressive and left-wing ballot initiatives. Only in the Senate did they hold a disadvantage with 26 incumbent senators up for reelection, ten of which are from states Trump won in 2016. Key issues during the election included the attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, the Republican tax law, the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh as Supreme Court Justice, immigration, abortion and gun control. The Mueller investigation into Russian interference of the 2016 Presidential election was quiet during the campaign season, possibly so as not to affect public opinion with revelations and discoveries. While Republicans tried to fearmonger support around the recent migrant caravan and other immigration issues as well as the contention in the confirmation hearing of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, Democrats targeted healthcare as one of the major issues with vulnerable Republicans voting in favour of the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Public opinion saw increasing opposition to the Republican agenda as Republicans attempted to shore their support with the promise of protecting those with pre-existing conditions, despite voting to repeal them.

This was also one of the most expensive elections in American history amounting to a price tag of $5.2 billion dollars in spending. With much of the funding lopsided to the Democratic side, attention is strong with candidates like Democrat Beto O’Rourke and Amy McGrath. A record breaking 49% of the eligible voting population voted in this election, the highest midterm turnout since 1914 with 31.5 million ballots casted in early voting and a total of around 40 million. Several states like Georgia and Texas saw double digit increases in turnout, likely fuelled by aggressive get out the vote campaigns by Democratic candidates Beto O’Rourke for Texas senator and Stacey Abrams for Georgia governor. Democrats swept the popular votes with an average margin of 7% at the moment. While 2018 seemed to have been an overall victory for Democrats, it has also been dubbed as the Year of the Woman, a title last used in 1992 with an increase of women in the Senate in a response to the sexual allegations of Anita Hill against Justice Clarence Thomas. However, compared to 1992, 500 more women ran in primaries with 256 running in the general midterm election for a final result of at least 114 female legislators, the highest ever at 123 representing 23% of Congress. The vast majority are affiliated with the Democratic Party: 73% of primary candidates and 77% of general midterm candidates. Diversity in candidates also saw a major increase, although only limited in the Democratic caucus, with the percentage of white men dropping from 41% to 38% while the Republican caucus saw an increase of 86% to 90%. Two Muslim and Native American woman, the youngest female congresswoman, several of those with scientific backgrounds and many other backgrounds were elected that night. This election also saw the third highest turnover with 104 of 447 Members of Congress losing re-election.

Democrats were the clear favourites throughout the campaign to take control of the House of Representatives and that did not change on election night. Democrats were required to pick up a net total of 23 House seats in order to take the House of Representatives, they currently have picked up a net total of 37 seats placing the current standings in the House at 232 Democrats and 198 Republicans with 5 undetermined races. Those five undetermined races are still too close to call, with mail-in and provisional ballots yet to be counted. Democrats saw sweeping gains in the House in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and California which played large roles in bringing the Democrats back in power. Most noticeable was the suburban revolution with seats like South Carolina District 1, Oklahoma District 5 and New York District 11 attached to Charleston, Oklahoma City and New York City respectively that traditionally voted Republican and were expected to vote Republican flipped to the Democratic column. This was mostly fuelled by white college-educated suburbanites who, for the first time, voted for Democrats overall since the beginning of exit polls. Woman also overwhelmingly backed Democrats as the continued difference of the gender gap of about 30 percentage points. Republicans saw a notable number of retirements, increasing Democratic chances in the House. The inroads Democrats have made in traditionally Republican territory is a demonstration of the shifting demographics and party affiliations in the nation. While control is in the hands of the Democratic Party, the House bears powers to begin and extend investigations into the current President with the commissions at hand. As well as protecting the Mueller investigation, they also hold subpoena powers with the powerful House Judiciary Committee and they can block the President and the Republican Party’s political agenda. Impeachment processes also begin in the House. The end of one-party rule in Congress come January is very good news for the Democrats, liberals and progressives.

The Senate saw the Republican Party maintain control, which was expected as Democrats faced one of their toughest Senate maps ever. The only question was how much is it would change by. Currently, Republicans hold a net gain of one seat. The night had gone well with Republicans defeating Democratic incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Meanwhile, Democrats gained the Nevada Senate seat against incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller and they picked up the open seat in Arizona with Representative Kyrsten Sinema. In Texas, Democratic challenger lost to Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz by a three point margin: the closest a Democrat has gotten to a statewide office in decades. Beto O’Rourke is also credited with the success of gaining Texas house seats as well as gains in local offices like in Harris County where all Republican judges were voted out for a full Democratic panel that included nine black women and one socialist. Two races undetermined, Mississippi’s special Senate election in which is now going into run-off between Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy, in which Hyde-Smith is the favourite due to Mississippi’s red hue. The other undetermined race is in Florida where the Republican Governor Rick Scott leads incumbent Senator Scott Nelson by less than 0.2%, forcing an automatic machine and manual recount under Florida state law. Most notably, Broward County has found discrepancy within thousands of ballots that voted in the gubernatorial election, but not the senate election. Florida and more specifically Broward County were also the site of controversy in the 2000 Presidential Election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush. Maintaining control of the Senate will allow President Trump to continue confirming his appointments, however, the limited losses by the Democrats set them up to possibly take the Senate in 2020.

The Governorship races saw great success for the Democratic Party, picking up a net total of seven governorships. Democrats won in Maine, Nevada, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kansas and New Mexico while holding important governorship races in Colorado and Connecticut. Republicans only gained Alaska from an Independent. Democrats also captured the governor’s mansion for Guam from the Republicans that night. The race in Georgia between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp remains too close to call at the time of this article’s writing, with the possibility of a runoff election in December. Florida governorship race also entered an automatic machine recount as the margin between Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Ron DeSantis closed to 0.4% later on during the week. Democrat Governor-elect Jared Polis of Colorado is also the first openly gay man elected as Governor of a state. 87 of 99 state legislatures were up for grabs as Democrats flipped 350 seats gaining several key state legislatures for a full trifecta control or breaking Republican trifectas, however, gerrymandering in states like Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin have allowed Republicans to hold on in those states. Notable successful ballot initiatives include independent redistricting commissions in Colorado, Michigan and possibly Utah, expansion of medicare in Idaho, Utah and Nebraska, legalization of medical marijuana in Utah and MIssouri and recreational marijuana in Michigan, increases to the minimum wage in Missouri and Arkansas, and mandatory voter ID in elections in North Carolina and Arkansas. Most notable is Florida Amendment 4 which restored voting rights to the 1.6 million Floridians who have committed a felony.

There is much more that pertains in the results of the 2018 Midterm election and even to be revealed as recounts are commenced and races are still too close to call. The dynamics in which American politics has shifted is not something I believed I would have seen in my life, in fact, when I first wrote in the World News section of the Bell Roar, I held the perception that the right-wing nationalistic shift was one that would take the world by storm. That may have been half-true, but it seems that it will not last as it begins to crumble from repudiation and rejection. I myself cannot fully unpackage the great wealth of analysis contained in this election, I am simply a high school student in a generation in which many remain apathetic to politics, but the election is profound in changing the next two years of American politics as well as world politics. The lame duck session of the previous Congress has yet to conclude and the new USMCA trade deal is already under threat of failing to pass Congress. Much is yet to come, and hopefully I may help guide you through the quagmire of politics in my last year here at Bell.