New comprehensive climate report by the IPCC urges global cooperation to achieve the more ambitious 1.5°C of warming

The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris produced a comprehensive and groundbreaking agreement which saw to the first globally mutual, universal and binding agreement sections to combat climate change and cut greenhouse gas emissions, also known as the Paris Agreement. A total of 195 sovereign nations are signatories of which 181 have ratified the agreement through their respective governments, committing to keeping global temperatures from rising more than 2°C from pre-industrial levels with a more ambitious 1.5 °C goal if possible. Despite the decision by President Donald Trump to pull the United States out of the agreement, state and local governments, as well as organisations, universities and businesses remain committed to honouring the agreement in their home country. However, this conference also produced another comprehensive document released almost three years later providing a different outlook than that at the completion of the Paris Agreement.

Released on October 8th of this year at the 48th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Incheon, South Korea, “The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C” (SR15) is a 728-page document with 91 authors from 40 different countries and 6,000 peer reviews and 6,000 references. Requested in the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, this report was to analyze the effects on Earth's weather, health and ecosystems as well as the human toll of 1.5°C increase in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels instead of the currently agreed upon 2°C level. It also serves to provide pathways of mitigation and transition in the context of sustainable development and the eradication of poverty. The differences are stark and arguably a life and death decision where seas would rise 10 centimeters less, less severe and deadly natural disasters, prevention of the loss of a majority of the global coral reefs and might just stop irreversible melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The globe has already increased by 1°C since pre-industrial levels, giving a 0.5°C margin remaining. If global warming continues at the current rate, it is projected in the report that global temperatures will pass the 1.5°C threshold between 2030 and 2052. To quote United Nations Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Hoesung Lee, "Limiting warming to 1.5°C is not impossible, but will require unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society".

In order to meet the 1.5°C threshold, carbon emissions would need to be halved by 2030 and virtually zero by 2050. Other greenhouse emissions would have to follow a similar path. Within the report, 529 possible future scenarios were calculated of which less than two percent lead to less than 1.5°C of warming without going above and coming back down somehow in the future. The report and the panel urged that the global community target less than 1.5°C of warming to avoid the most catastrophic effects and to keep some semblance of the current environment. Food security, water supply, climate refugees, economic growth and climate-related illnesses with deadlier and more extreme heatwaves and a greater loss of coral reefs are at risk above 1.5°C. It is projected that 420 million more people will be exposed to severe heat waves. The report argued that current Paris agreement pledges are insufficient to meet the more ambitious threshold of 1.5°C. Environment Minister, Catherine McKenna stated that Canada is not on track for the more ambitious goal, but will not make major changes to the current plan. Last month a report was released detailing how a carbon tax would benefit Canadians wallets, especially the less wealthy ones. However, setbacks with provincial governments have delayed implementation of the price on carbon.

The report's release has come a few months before the Katowice Climate Conference in Poland in December. Discussion will likely be centered on this report and its implementation to the relation of the Paris Agreement. The report is to act as a guide for policymakers and to encourage greater action. To quote James Skea, the co-chair of Working Group III of the IPCC's SR15, “the message is over to governments. We've told you the scientific facts, evidence, the costs. It's up to governments to decide what to do with it.”.