Metod-KaY-Wave-e
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION LABORATORY LTD
https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/Home
KaY-wave predicts the earthquake.
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION LABORATORY LTD
Alexandr Yagodin
Announcement.
Many laboratories in the world have been searching the precise techniques of the earthquake prediction.
During the researches the author found:
- abnormal animal response correlating with the magnitude, location and time of the following earthquakes;
- discovered the gravitational and seismic KaY-wave, moving from the periphery towards the future earthquake and correlating with the strength, location and time of the following earthquakes;
- relation between the gravitational and seismic resonance planetary phenomena in the epicenter zone resulting the energy returning the KaY-wave back to the epicenter of the corresponding earthquake.
"… The scientists have been making efforts to give the qualitative evaluation of the reason for animal abnormal behavior before the earthquake for thirty-five years...., and I believe that the results received by Dr. A. Yagodin are of high importance.
I think that this is very important and that's what wanted to say..."
From the speech of the expert - Dr. Eynat Aaronov (Weizmann Institute).
Protocol No. 136 of the Israeli "Knesset" committee meeting of July 20, 2005.
Dear Alexandr Petrovich,
I wish to thank you for the information regarding your earthquake prognosis method based on the animal behavior observation and the device allowing the implementation of the new field and information type related to the earthquake forerunners. The prognosis samples are of big interest and trust…
I understand that it is only the beginning of the research process, and its scientific foundation has already been laid by you... I hope the Israeli geophysicists will support you…
A.V. Nikolayev. Professor in Geophysics, the Chairman of the Council."
The Review of the Russian Academy of Sciences: March 2, 2006.
“ …The aim of the Center is to demonstrate that the regional imminent “when, where and how” earthquake’s forecasting problem can be solved. My positive opinion is based on the established last year’s results of organized from Alexandr Yagodin, Private Haifa Earthquake Prediction Laboratory presented like private communications, mail texts with diagrams, graphics, and tables of confirmed forecasting…”
Review. Senior Researcher Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev, INRNE BAS. 2009 7/07.
"...Expert Council has examined the materials that you kept presenting to me for half a year. ... (this) became the reason for carrying out the examination of your method. … The estimated pick position (KaY-wave) comparison table … showed the impressive coincidences standing beyond the random values ….
…The on-line predictions in Chile (based on the Argentine station data), Turkey, Iran - based on the Israeli station data and the SUBSEQUENT seismic data confirming the previous predictions are of certain interest... Based on the submitted data the Russian Expert Council admits the importance of continuation of creating the station modules …., being the basis for future (international) earthquake prediction network by way of the complex implementing the KaY-wave monitoring data... A. Nikolayev, the Professor in Geophysics, the Chairman of the Council Publication of Russian Academy of Sciences."
The expert report of the Russian Expert Council on Earthquake Prediction and Seismic Hazard Assessment. October 8, 2012.
Introduction
Many laboratories of the world are engaged in the search of prediction methods for earthquake warning. Therewith, the precursors that from olden times have given good results have been the initial material. However, some precursors are locally related to the location of the forthcoming earthquake epicenter, and some precursors inform on the earthquake that would be far away from the precursor’s localization and in rather long time. In his researches the author has observed precursors “in loco”, that were seconds ahead of the earthquake, but there were forerunners being tens hours ahead of the earthquake and have been within 1 000 kilometer and even a few weeks , therewith being at the other side of the globe, from the epicenter of the oncoming earthquake.
The author focused on the latter, since they allow prediction of earthquake within the sufficient time before the shock start.
During the researches the author found:
- abnormal animal response correlating with the strength, location and time of the following earthquakes;
- presence of the mathematical relation between the response strength and the magnitude of the following earthquake;
- presence of the constant ratio of the animal "sensor" distance to the following epicenter point and the time between the animal response and the corresponding earthquake shock start;
- physical meaning of this ratio - front speed of the gravitational and seismic wave moving from the periphery towards the future earthquake location.
- the wave was named "KaY-wave" after the great astronomer N.A. Kozyrev who discovered the relation of the tectonics of the Moon and the Earth, and the author of the wave discovery - A. Yagodin (Kozyrev-Yagodin Wave)
- cloud forerunner demonstrating the occurrence of the standing wave towards the future earthquake epicenter, as well as proving the presence of infrasonic vibrations related to this wave;
- relation between the gravitational and seismic resonance planetary phenomena in the epicenter zone resulting the energy returning the KaY-wave back to the epicenter of the corresponding earthquake.
- the research findings enabled the techniques and the systems allowing accurate prediction of four main parameters of future earthquake (magnitude, place, time of start and end of the shocks) within the ample time (from 1 hour to several days) before the shock start.
Performed researches and the results of Haifa Laboratory operations
In Haifa laboratory the initial works were bound to determine the possibility of the earthquake prediction on animal abnormal behavior. After the primary observation of a great quantity of small-sized marine organisms grey mullet and crawfish have been picked out for the further experiments.
Seismologists and biologists often tried to predict earthquakes with the help of dogs.
The article [1] describes typical cases of positive examples: “After the Spitak earthquake in Armenia the story of Alice husky and A.Garibyan, it’s host from Leninakan, has become widely known. In the morning of December 7, two hours before the earthquake the host brought the dog for a walk, but Alice refused to return back to the house, creepy howling and barking. The frightened host called the police, the city council, the radio, and everywhere he was ridiculed. To be on the safe side, Garibyan decided to withdraw his family from the house and offered his neighbors to do the same. And not in vain, since at this moment the city was collapsed. Note that A.Garibyan spent twenty years on the Kamchatka Peninsula and from there moved the Husky, which saved the lives of his family.”
The world's test findings showed that in average, dogs as well as many other animals do not have obvious anomaly behavior before the earthquake.
However, there are some animals sensing the earthquake before it occurs and their reaction allows speaking about the feeling of pain that is related to the abnormal behavior of these specific species.
A dog T. (whose serious illness was later revealed) had an obvious abnormal response to the earthquake. Her mistress wrote on the forum, that before the New Year, when all were sitting at the table, the frightened dog suddenly climbed on her lap. And within some time the clatter of dishes reported on a fair earthquake.
This dog refused to enter the house two hours before the earthquake of 5 magnitudes in Israel and her response was very obvious. [2]
All “strange reactions, showing a gratuitous fear in this dog”, have been fixed within a few months of the registration time, noting all her actions.
The behavior of the dog managed to identify three levels of fear.
1. The dog is quiet and no fear has been noticed.
2. The dog is nervous without reason, as if it is listening, alert, sometimes hidden under the table.
3. The dog is frightened, clinging to the feet of the mistress, tries to hide in her arms, pulls out.
The dog with such a gradation can be regarded as a rough sensor-indicator, construct a diagram of the relationship of abnormal behavior with the time and compare the distribution of earthquakes in time (within 4 000 km), according to seismologists.
When the reaction diagram of the dog and the data on the past earthquakes have imposed on the axis of time , it appeared that:
1. No dog reaction before an earthquake up to 3.5 magnitudes in the 1 000 km area has been noted.
2. Earthquakes of 4.5 magnitudes have been preceded with the second stage reaction of the dog.
3. Earthquakes of more than 5.5 magnitudes have been preceded with the third stage reaction of the dog.
The reaction of the dog has been noted prior the earthquakes of:
- more than 4 magnitude in the 200 km area;
- more than 5 magnitude in the 2 000 km area;
- more than 6 magnitude in the 4 000 km area
Thus the threshold of the reaction of the dog and the degree of attenuation of “the efficient cause of the nervousness" in the dog was defined.
But there with a very strange dependence has been revealed.
1. The reaction time of the dog forestalled the earthquake the more, the further the epicenter of the oncoming earthquakes was. [3]
Thus, the earthquake at the 200 km area has happened in 2 hours after the dog reaction…
The earthquake at the 1 000 km area – 8 hours before;
The earthquake at the 1 300 km area – 12 hours before;
The earthquake at the 800 km area – 7 hours before
Therewith:
t – time interval between the onset of registration of the anomalous behavior of the dog and the start of the corresponding earthquake;
D – distance between the sensor and location of the epicenter of the corresponding earthquake.
This can be explained only by the wave, which moves from the periphery to the site of the future epicenter of the earthquake with speed D/t and accompanying it with infrasound, causing pain reaction in animals that can hear low and infrasonic vibrations.
The wave front speed - about 100 km/hr.
Dogs can’t speak, but there are people whose analogous responses are known from documentary sources.
Thus, Charlotte King, an inhabitant of California, feels pain because of the effect of the infra-low acoustic frequency on her organism. Note, that she has felt pain ~ 8-10 hours before the earthquake that has happened afterwards at the 1 000 km distance. It fits exactly to the line of the above diagram.
All the above confirms that, on the average, we can’t find the described effect at every dog, but there are animals and people who react to the occurrence of infrasound with the pain sensation, and it makes them sensors - indicators and that can predict a forthcoming earthquake.
The diagram and correlation indicate the presence of a wave moving to the epicenter, and taking part in the genesis of the earthquake.
In view of the waves, that the animals react on, the reason for prediction failure using animals in China becomes understood.
Chinese scientists have successfully predicted locations and approximate time of the earthquake several times. The consequence of this work was a unique Haychen forecast. The general exultation on this occasion, however, was premature.
It was noted a large number of false anxiety raised by animals, that suggested to abandon their use. A year later, 150 km from Beijing, unfortunately, there was an unpredicted earthquake with 7 magnitudes that killed 400 thousand people.
The cause of false alarms has been a misconception that dogs warn about the earthquake that will be near the location of the animal but it could be a wave, a warning about the forthcoming distant earthquake.
Simultaneously with experiments on animals, the author conducted observation of the clouds, which he called "Herolds", has identified the cause of their appearance and physical model of their formation (wave-like density distribution of small light particles under the influence of the stationary infrasound wave). [4]
Also an apparent relationship with the subsequent earthquakes in the direction pointed out by "Herolds" (perpendicular to the lines of the clouds) has been registered. [4]
The article about a man who predicted the earthquake in the mountains, listening to the ground with bare feet, "flashed" on one of the sites. [6]
In St. Petersburg University in the same period, the work on the registration of seismo-gravitational oscillations has been carried out and the existence of their relation with powerful distant earthquakes has been noted. [8]
All this suggests that the desired wave must have the following parameters:
1. Move towards the epicenter of the earthquake at 100 km/ h speed and lower.
2. Possess the properties of the surface wave.
3. Fluctuations in the Earth's crust must occur on the audio and infrasonic frequencies, such amplitude can be felt by trained bare feet.
In these conditions, it was easy to pick up the sensor and to detect this wave. To do this, a sensor that did not register earthquakes itself, but gave an electrical signal proportional to the amplitude of (gravity-seismic) of low and infrasonic frequencies vibrations was created.
The author conducted a continuous demonstration test recording signal for three days at two locations separated by a 5 km distance from each other to resolve local technical noise.
The records of the both stations were identical with a slight shift of peaks on the time schedule.
According to the proposed linear relationship between the time of registration of the peak and the start of the corresponding earthquake on the distance between the sensor and the epicenter of this earthquake the schedule has been plotted and the correlation of these parameters has been calculated.
The dependence of the difference in arrival time of the wave and the start of shocks of the corresponding earthquake from the distance sensor to location of the epicenter of this earthquake, gave a correlation of 0.99, indicating the mathematical formula dependence of these parameters.
The author called this wave the Kozyrev - Yagodin wave (KaY-wave) by the author’s name (Yagodin) and N.A.Kozyrev, the name of the great Russian astronomer, who predicted the relationship of the tectonic activity of the Earth and the Moon, and that is of great importance in the genesis of earthquakes and the formation of this wave. [3]
In view of this formula an experimental comparison of the location of the actual peaks, predicting a specific group of earthquakes and their estimated position on the time schedule for the same group of earthquakes were conducted.
The results illustrate the absolute accuracy and stability of the method of the calculation formula, because the data did not change during the whole period of studies (from 2005 to 2012).
This suggests the possibility of using these stations with the outlined sensors for determining the direction of the KaY- wave front and predictions of forthcoming earthquake parameters. Knowing the time of the occurrence of the wave peaks on the sensors and their coordinates and velocity of the wave, it is easy to calculate the arrival time of waves in the epicenter point of the forthcoming earthquake and the onset of the earthquake.[2,9,10]
The graduated graph of the relation of the peak amplitude on the sensor and the magnitude of the earthquake is constructed and correction factors are calculated at the real peaks and the related following earthquakes .
The following records are shown from two stations, where the possibility of determining the direction of the wave front to the epicenter of the future earthquakes, using the registration KaY-waves at neighboring stations is clearly visible.
Sequential passing of the KaY-wave front through the station in the wave moving in the direction of the future earthquake epicenter.
When the wave moves to Greece, at first the peaks of the wave are recorded at the station in Nesher and then in Haifa.
When the wave moves in the opposite direction (to the East), at first the peaks of the wave are recorded in Haifa, and then in Nesher.
In 2004 this method of the use of animals got a positive appraisal of Dr. Arie Gilat (Israel Institute of Geology).[10]
In 2004-2005, the Institute of Technion (Haifa), confirmed the possibility of creating an automated system for monitoring the behavior of fish and the prediction of earthquakes. [12]
In 2005 the method was presented at the session of the Knesset Committee on Science and got the approval of Dr. Einat Aronova (Weizmann Institute). [11]
In 2006, the discovery and the method and were approved by the EC of the RAS and it was recommended proceeding with the research in this area.
The method has been many times presented by the author alone and in collaboration with the Academy of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Emergency Situations at seminars and conferences on humanitarian operations in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tel-Aviv in 2009-2011.[2, 9]
In 2012 on the results of Expertise of the RAS, the discovery of the Yagodin - Kozyrev wave (KaY-wave), "Heralds" wave-precursors has been confirmed and the test of earthquake prediction in real-time was praised. The complex of methods proposed by the author is recommended for use in efficient accurate prediction of earthquakes.
"...I wish to specifically note the prognosis of the earthquake with M=5.9 of June 19th, 2012 in the area of South-East Turkey and the following development of the seismic activity in this area of Mediterranean as significant success.
Based on the provided data, Russian Academy of Science believes that it is important to keep on developing the station modules for timely earthquake prediction, possible being the grounds for future wide earthquake prediction network by way of the complex implementing the KaY-wave monitoring data..."
https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/ec_ras_2012
Литература:
1. В.Н. Андреев В.Н. Медведев. ПРОБЛЕМЫ СЕЙСМИЧЕСКОГО РИСКА В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ САХА (Я).
2. Alexandr Yagodin. (WO/2008/053463) SYSTEM OF THE PREDICTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE. Patent РСТ.
3. А.Ягодин. Международный Центр предупреждения (предсказания) землетрясений.
http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/r1
4. A.Yagodin. «Heroldes», "Heralds" are formations in the clouds, that predict earthquakes.
https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/heroldes-e .
5. "The Charlotte King Effect (c)" http://www.viser.net/~charking/
6. The man who predicts earthquakes. http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/feb/02spec.htm
7. Н.А. Козырев. «О связи тектонических процессов Земли и Луны». Изд. ЛГУ 1991г.
8. Л.Н. Петрова, Е.Г.Орлов, В.В. Карпинский. «О динамике и структуре колебаний Земли в декабре 2004 года по наблюдениям сейсмогравиметра в Санкт-Петербурге.» НИИФ им. Фока Спб Университет. Физика Земли. 2007.»№2.
9. E.G. Mirmovich, Civil Defense Academy, EMERCOM of Russia, сand.sci. (Ph-Math), associate professor, A.P. Yagodin, Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction, Haifa, Israel “Development of Earthquake Prediction System Pilot Module based on Patent wo/2008/053463 to Yagodin as Humanitarian Task”. EMERCOM of Russia Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis 14th International Scientific and Practical Conference on the Issues of Protection of Population and Territories from Emergencies Modern Aspects of Humanitarian Operations in Emergency Situations and Military Conflicts. Moscow May 20, 2009.
10. Review from d. Arie Gilat.
https://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/ocenka
11. Protocol of Israel Knesset .
http://www.knesset.gov.il/protocols/data/html/mada/2005-07-20.html
12. Analysis of behavior of fish in aquarium by Daphna Karnin and Nataly Slutsky Supervised by Johanan Erez (Technion). http://visl.technion.ac.il/projects/2005s01/