I ask to give the message about the noticed errors on e-mail : predict.y@gmail.com

TECHNIQUE OF THE EXACT OPERATIVE PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES.

Yagodin, Haifa, Israel.

This project was presented at a seminar at Tel Aviv University

(WO/2008/053463) SYSTEM OF THE PREDICTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE

http://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/WO2008053463

The rewiev to the proect from The expert Comission Academy of sciance of Russia

To predict earthquakes most of scientists around the world now use processes at the hypocenter areas.

However lots of biological, meteorological and physical indicators point to the necessity of using data

collected far away from the hypocenter but related to the genesis process of the earthquakes.

During experiments author discovered the surface wave.

The front of this wave is a circle with the centre in the location of epicenter of the future earthquake (hypocenter).

The movement of the front of this wave is directed from the periphery to the hypocenter.

Speed of this wave is a constant (100 km/hour). The range of frequencies of this wave is from 0,0001 to 10-20 Hz.

On the way to the hypocenter this wave radiates infrasonic fluctuations which create many known harbingers of earthquake.

The mathematical formula of communication between the peaks of this wave which have been registered on the gauge far

from epicenter of the future earthquake and key parameters of corresponding earthquake has been found empirically.

The energy released from this wave at the hypocenter triggers the earthquake process.

Peak readings from sensors correlate with the magnitude of the future earthquake.

The prediction of the International Center for global earthquake prediction could be built using multiple stations

scattered around the globe and connected by information network.

By crossing vectors of direction for wave front movement from several sensors the author calculates the location

of the hypocenter and the time of the future earthquake.

Peak readings from sensors correlate to the magnitude of the future earthquake.

Many scientists make use of processes taking place in the earthquake’s hypocentral zone.

Yet

the sharp increase in the infrasound noises in the areas far away from the hypocenter several, or even tens

of hours before the actual earthquake registered by many seismologists and used to predict dozens of

earthquakes by Boris Friman, the local increase in the electromagnetic variations in the areas far away

from the hypocenter several, or even tens of hours before the actual earthquake registered and used

to predict dozens of earthquakes by Dr. Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev,

american scientists’ reporting a certain Chalotte King who identified infrasound noises some 5-8 hours

before earthquakes with epicenters up to 800 kilometers away, animals’ receiving infrasounds while

in the earthquake’s epicenter between two hours to several minutes before quakes.

Yet

All this attests to the fact that infrasound noises linked to the forthcoming earthquake are registered

much earlier off the hypocentral zone than within it.

To prediction of an earthquake on the basis of processes taking place in the hypocentral zone is therefore

similar to trying to predict the exact point where a shell is going to hit a target.

We do know that the target is in a certain area.

We realize that the target is an active one and we can can take an aim at it.

What we do not know is the time when the canon is loaded and when the shell is fired.

All my research was based on the fact that some animals and some people can predict an earthquake hours,

rather than seconds before it happens.

Chinese scientists were successful in using animals for their forecasts.

Yet their assumption that animals react to an infrasound source only in the hypocenter of a coming earthquake

was wrong which led to a complete halt in research in this direction.

There is no doubt about earthquake forecasters being present in the hypocentral zone.

Among them are reptile behavior, radon emissions and changes in the ground water regime.

But all these signs do not give precise information on the time and magnitiude of the forthcoming earthquake.

The seismically lull registered by seismologists in a certain area may last from one to seven days after the first

harbingers appearance.

Studying animal behavior I noticed an unusual regularity : they started noticing “something” hours ahead

of the earthquake.

To correlate animal behavior and earthquakes that could cause this behavior I used changes from low

seismically activity to a magnitude of 4.5-5.5 in an area of 2000 kilometres.

Based on these experiments a time diagram correlating the changing animal behavior and earthquakes

whose “trigger” mechanism could cause these changes was produced.

The correlation between the start time of the animal “noticing” behavior and the earthquake start on one hand,

and the distance between the animal and the epicenter of the earthquake (geophysics data) on the other,

was very high (0.8) and highly reliable.

Given the recorder’s characteristics (a very specific wave range) and on comparing simultaneous

results produces by different sensors we arrive at the conclusion that this is a voluminous surface wave

(gravitational- seismic) with a rather wide wave range ( from ultra low sound to sound waves).

The peak's amplitude correlates with the magnitude of the corresponding earthquake.

The quotient of partition “ distance-between-sensor-and-the-relevant-earthquake” to

the “time-gap-between-earthquake’s start - to receiver’s-warning peak-emergence” correlation is

a constant (100 +/- 2 км/h) and acts as the wavefront speed indicator forecasting an earthquake

and (probably) playing a significant role in the earthquake’s genesis.

As a tribute to a great astronomer Nikolai Aleksandrovich Kozyrev’s work and his research into

the Earth’s and Moon’s tectonics which was one of the cornerstones of our wave-origination theory,

the above wave was called Kozyrev-Yagodin (KaY)-wave).

Using sensors with anisotropic characteristics which uniquely sensitive to waves arriving from different

directions allowed to determine the wave travel direction following which it became possible to give

experimental forecasts of the coming earthquake’s epicenter direction.

Forecasts’ results are presented in the table below

http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/tabl-e

which visibly demonstrates how correct the coming earthquake direction forecast

(based on the recorder’s wave peaks) is despite restrictions imposed by the laboratory nature of the work.

(Appl-4)

The author has checked up correctness of the mathematical formula of the correlation between

the prediction peaks and the earthquakes.

For this purpose the author has compared position on an axis of time of peaks which have been

received on the gauge in Haifa and peaks which have been calculated by the mathematical from the data

about the earthquakes received from seismologists.

(Appl-5)

http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/teor-practica

As seen from diagrams the peak's calculated positions on the time axis only slightly (less than 20-30 minutes)

differ from the actual peak locations.

Their amplitudes (when error corrections to accommodate for distance differences to the hypocenter

are made) are directly related to the relevant earthquake magnitude.

Therefore, by using stations built around these recorders to process acquired data, locating the coming

earthquake’s hypocenter at the vector intersection would not be a problem.

Then, a simple calculation of speed and distance from the recorder gives the time of the relevant quake

while the registered peak’s amplitude with all the necessary corrections and calibration produces the magnitude

of the coming earthquake.

The lead time for a begin of a future earthquake is calculated by dividing the distance between the recorder

and the hypocenter by the wave’s speed (100km/h).

The idea of creation of the International System and the Center of a prediction of earthquakes is supported

by many scientists of the different countries.

The conference program on which representatives of two countries (Israel and Russia) application of the

module based on the given technique is officially offered.

(Appl-6)

Reference

1. Alexandr Yagodin. (WO/2008/053463) SYSTEM OF THE PREDICTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE.

2. А.Ягодин. Международный Центр предупреждения (предсказания) землетрясений.

http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/r1

3. А.Ягодин. «HEROLDES», «ГЕРОЛЬДЫ» - ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ В ОБЛАКАХ, ПРЕДСКАЗЫВАЮЩИЕ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ. Сайт РАН «Известия науки».

http://www.inauka.ru/blogs/article89161.html

4. А. Ягодин. «ДОРОГА К KAY-ВОЛНЕ.» Сайт РАН «Известия науки».

http://www.inauka.ru/blogs/article89159.html

5. "The Charlotte King Effect (c)"

http://www.viser.net/~charking/

6. E.G. Mirmovich, Civil Defense Academy, EMERCOM of Russia, Cand.Sci. (Physics and Math), associate professor, A.P. Yagodin, Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction, Haifa, Israel “Development of Earthquake Prediction System Pilot Module based on Patent wo/2008/053463 to Yagodin as Humanitarian Task”. EMERCOM of Russia Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Scientific Society for Risk Analysis 14th International Scientific and Practical Conference on the Issues of Protection of Population and Territories from Emergencies Modern Aspects of Humanitarian Operations in Emergency Situations and Military Conflicts.

Moscow All-Russian Exhibition Centre, Pavilion No.75 (Russia) May 20, 200935.

7. Mavrodiev Strachimir Chterev.

“On the complex earthquake precursors research and reliability test of predictions regional/global NETWORK- collaboration PrEqTiPlaMagInt”

Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Tzarigradsko shose 72 1784 Sofia Bulgaria mavrodi@inrne.bas.bg

IUGG 2007 Perugia portal

8. Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev. International center for Seismicity Researching and Imminent Forecasting of Earthquake’s Epicenter, Intensity and Magnitude.

Senior Researcher, Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria http://theo.inrne.bas.bg/~mavrodi/

9. The man who predicts earthquakes. http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/feb/02spec.htm

10. Н.А. Козырев. «О связи тектонических процессов Земли и Луны». Изд. ЛГУ 1991г.

11. Э.Г. Мирмович, к.ф.-м.н., доцент. Академия гражданской защиты МЧС России «К ПРОБЛЕМЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ИСТОЧНИКОВ ЧС ГЕОФИЗИЧЕСКОГО ПРОИСХОЖДЕНИЯ». Изд.Химки. 2008

12. Л.Н. Петрова, Е.Г.Орлов, В.В. Карпинский. «О динамике и структуре колебаний Земли в декабре 2004 года по наблюдениям сейсмогравиметра в Санкт-Петербурге.» НИИФ им. Фока Спб Университет. Физика Земли. 2007.»№2.

13. Б. Фрайман «Инфразвук и предсказание землетрясений».

http://www.razmah.ru/showarticle.asp?id=109

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