complex
Implementation of the earthquake genesis stages to improve the prediction accuracy and extension of the response time allowance
A. Yagodin. Haifa Earthquake Prediction Laboratory
Nowadays more scientists all over the world have been talking about the following factors having an impact on the seismic activity:
- Solar activity;
- Lunar phase;
- weather change;
- ionosphere disturbances.
All these processes are physically related to the earthquake genesis and therefore the surveyors have notified of the observed relations thereto.
The existence of the interaction between the tectonic processes of the Earth and the Moon was described in the article of N.A. Kozyrev "Tectonic activity of the Earth and the Moon":
1. The existence of tidal effect triggering mechanism via gravitational impact on the Earth and the Moon;
2. The existence of direct causal relation of tectonic processes on the Earth and the Moon.
Based on the interaction of these processes the author (N.A. Kozyrev) came to a conclusion pertaining to the synchronism of the mountain generation cycles occurred in the Earth and the Moon.
The author (of the article) hereby presents the detected causal connection of the earthquake development. The connection of the process development stages with the forerunners that can be measured and monitored. This will not only allow the earthquake spontaneous prediction, but also ensure the capability of gradual marking of the area of the seismic development start, location, time, and the force of the future earthquake as well as confirming the prognosis via the appropriate forerunners, thereby improving its accuracy.
The geoscientists have almost simultaneously approached the existence of the infra-low frequency gravitational seismic waves from various aspects, which are clearly correlated with the future earthquakes.
This includes the team of scientists of NIIF of FOKA SpbU and the Prof. E. Chalilov and (a bit later) the team of the Prof. O. Martynov (all of them have proceeded from the device based researches).
In 2004-2005 the author founded the Haifa Earthquake Prediction Laboratory started working on the mathematical treatment of the observed connection between the animal response and the future earthquake parameters and subsequently continued with the detection of the physical fields causing this animal response. Further examination of the detected wave (called the KaY-wave) [ 2 ] lead to the detection of the gravitational seismic resonance [ 5 ] related to the beginning of the earthquake source generation.
Various types of sensors have been implemented. However, in all these types the seismic and gravitational vibrations within the infrasound range have had the major influence on the output.
During these works, besides the KaY-wave peaks the durations from one hour to 1-2 days have been noted, whereas the sensors would transmit the continuous series of peaks with the period from 2.5 sec to several minutes.
This record diagram has been marked out by the clear amplitude similar to that reflecting the resonance peaks in electronics having the positive feed-back. Therefore the author called them (on the analogy) gravitational resonance fluctuations.
Following the correlation of a number of examined facts and observations the sequence leading to a wave generation and the earthquake itself has been developed.
Generally the duricrust tidal wave passes without rock destruction, not making additional higher frequencies on the background of its own wave frequency.
However, there are deep-seated crush sections in the areas whereas this tidal wave smooth flowing is disturbed and thereby the deformation occurs. It generates crush on higher frequencies in comparison with the tidal wave. Its actual amplitude is not big; though the shock itself causes the responding Lunar tidal potential impact (proportional to cubic leap) with the responding impact in the Earth crush deformation point. The reason of the Moon response on the low impact based on the fact that the Earth and the Moon together move along the orbit round the Sun as paired system being in the dynamic balance whereas the infinitesimal parameter alteration of one of the bodies shall cause the response of the other one.
The amplitudes of the set resonance are similar in all cases including those of the future earthquake epicenters. This will not allow us to predict the future earthquake magnitude by the resonance amplitude. However, this will allow calculating the distance from the station sensors to the resonance point and estimating the location of the future epicenter which I have managed to calculate not once, since the Haifa sensor signal from Crete zone or Syria zone has exceeded 4 times the resonance signal in the zone of Crete and Syria zone. (I have reliably used this to notify Dr. Avi Shapira of the expected close earthquake provided that due to the resonance long duration it does not depend on the technical noises).
PhD in physico-mathematical sciences (candidate) E.G. Mirmovich believes that the first burst impacting the first possible resonance will be the block fragment fall into the asthenosphere. It is actually true that the peak is marked in several resonance records in the initial part by the amplitude several times exceeding the resonance peak amplitude.
Comparisons of the short resonance during the weather front passage (1) and the set resonance related to the future earthquake (2).
This record was made on July 11-12, 2010. Whereas on July 13 at 3 o'clock (GMT) the serious earthquake took place in Greece area with the magnitude 5.5.
As the resonance develops in time, the lower resonance frequencies appear, the depth of the planet zone covered by the resonance grows and the additional future earthquake epicenters get involved in the process. The adjacent areas get involved into the resonance. (In this case the chain of earthquakes connected to each other by KaY-wave speed arises).
Recent example: The earthquake in Portugal occurred 6 hours upon the earthquake in Spain, whereas the distance between these epicenters is 600 km. The distance division quotient between the adjacent epicenters divided by the shock start time difference is a constant value equal to the KaY-wave speed. (~100 km/h)).
The resonance develops rapidly going into the depth of the Earth in accordance with the resulting vector of the interaction force between the Moon, the Sun and the Earth. At this point the resonance can stop or continue covering the additional zones. It proceeds into the depth of the planet all the way up to the end of the resonance or coming out on the opposite side.
The examples of such an outcome of the resonance related to the strong future earthquake are the resonances of the bridge over the Volga River and its timely related destruction of the bridge in Adygeya. In both cases the signs of KaY-wave existence occurred.
It is the wind front speed of 28m/sek (~100 km/h) (however, no video record revealed the strong wind at that time) and the Heroldes-clouds seen in the video being the indicator of the infrasound fluctuation occurrences [ 4 ].
Exactly in accordance with the distance from Volgograd to Vanuatu and the KaY-wave speed (~100 km/h), "as if due to the schedule" the wave came into the zone of Vanuatu (whereas the epicenter of the future earthquake evolved). The earthquake strength was corresponding to 7.5 magnitudes.
The second obvious example was the observed resonance in the Suez Canal (February 21). It was covered in media like an earthquake; however no earthquake was observed for 27 minutes! This was the same resonance as in Volgograd and Adygeya. It allowed assumption pertaining to the strong earthquake to be occurred on the opposite side of the Earth. On February 23 I notified of this Mr. Avi Shapiro, the chairman of the interministerial committee on removal of earthquake effect. I also mentioned about this in my presentation in the Museum of Science in Haifa on February 24, upon which the catastrophic earthquake occurred in Japan on March 11.
Upon completion of the resonance the standing infrasound wave arises between the process start point and the resonance end point on the surface of the Earth (on the Earth's surface circle around the upright axis going through the future earthquake epicenter point).
At this point we can observe the Heroldes-clouds telling about the presence of the infrasound wave.
After this the KaY-wave starts its way on the surface (as well as underground, being the hefty wave) towards the future earthquake epicenter. It comes from all directions into the zone of the process generation start and discharges by way of short earthquake process. Each separate shock of one future earthquake shall have its peaks in the formation predicting this earthquake.
The KaY-wave movement stage and reaching the earthquake location is described in http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/e1
Subsequently:
- all the earthquakes (except for landslides, manmade and karstic catastrophes) have the gravitational resonance origin;
- the resonance start can occur by both the seismic processes and the atmospheric pressure fluctuation in the zone of the future earthquake;
- the earthquake genesis is based on the resonance generation and development in the area of the tidal wave passage disturbance occurred in the duricrust ;
- all the earthquake forerunners are related to the resonance process occurring in the future earthquake epicenter zone, the resonance in the body of the planet, the Moon and the Sun and the return KaY-wave;
- in the most cases they are related to the infrasound processes during the resonance beginning and development period reflecting in all duricrust fields and the Earths' core up to the ionosphere.
The earthquake forerunners appear in all stages.
1. On the resonance early and development stage these processes are related to weak signals of low and medium frequencies with smaller deformations in the epicenter zone:
- anomaly protuberance emissions in the Sun;
- weather anomalies; precipitation;
- reptile response (snakes, frogs, etc.);
- gas yield alteration (as it was noted by the geologist .... in the area of the future earthquake in Acqueville);
- insignificant continuous infrasound level increasing;
- continuous gravitational seismic wave anomaly;
- ionospheric anomalies in the area of future earthquake epicenter;
- additional geophysical anomalies (they will not be considered in this article)
2. The forerunners on the resonance development stage down to its cease will be:
- seismic silence after the resonance processes in the first stage;
- formation of Heroldes-clouds;
- Earth surface and water surface lengthy resonance fluctuations;
- wind front passage record of 25-30 m/sec having no constant wind.
(It must be considered that these last four anomalies will tell about the future earthquake on the other side of the planet).
3. The best and major forerunner on the stage of the KaY-wave approaching to the future earthquake epicenter (with the speed of 100 km/h) will be the wave itself detected by the sensors in many fields. Its low speed, good peak amplitude and magnitude correlation pertaining to the corresponding future earthquake shocks will allow receiving all the required parameters of the future earthquake. (Location, force, start and end of the earthquake shock group). The advanced warning will thereby depend on the distance between the stations and the future earthquake epicenter.
Multiple alterations of the same wave front on different wave stages will allow the multiple increasing of the result accuracy and reliability.
The supplement forerunners will be:
- animal response on the infrasound wave passage (mullet, dogs (not all; only "the specific"), elephants, etc.);
- various geophysical anomalies related to the passing of the gravitational seismic wave (these will not be considered in this article);
- local, short-term infrasound anomalies;
4. In the epicenter zone, specifically before the earthquake from 1-2 hours down to tens and points of seconds before the shock start depending on the force of the future earthquake the following processes will be observed:
- prompt animal behavior anomaly related to pushing to exit the enclosed areas (possibly related to pain symptoms as the reaction to the infrasound);
- stone pyramid structure rambling having no relation to each other;
- gas yield in wells and its air composition anomalies;
- anomaly behavior of some birds (parrots) - possibly as the reaction to the gas composition alteration in the air;
- typical "manmade" clouds;
- possible increasing of air ionization leading to the fluorescent lamp outbursts having no power shutdown;
- advancing longitudinal waves - specifically before the shock start, etc.
The implementation of all range of the forerunners as the seismic danger level increases will allow predicting the danger of earthquakes pertaining to the specific area prior to 2-3 weeks before the earthquake and receiving very reliable prediction results within the time sufficient for undertaking the necessary measures of decreasing or removing the earthquake effect.
The effect of the earthquake in Japan would have been much lower, had the first measures been undertaken upon detection of the wave front in the Haifa station (07.03.2011) upon the warning that had already been received pertaining to the possible soon catastrophic earthquake in the Pacific Ocean (23.02.2011). As a matter of fact it might have been (even upon the first wave registration) possible to put several sensor layers ensuring the early determining of the location, force and time of future earthquake (12.03.2011).
After all even one Haifa station predicted the shock on 22.03 with the accuracy of up to several hours.
Literature:
1. N.A. Kozyrev. "Interaction between tectonic processes of the Earth and the Moon". Publisher: LGU 1991.
2. A.Yagodin. Earthquake Prediction International Center
http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/heroldes-1
A.Yagodin. The International Center of the earthquake's prediction.
http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/heroldes-1
3. A.Yagodin. (WO/2008/053463) SYSTEM OF THE PREDICTION OF THE EARTHQUAKE (PCT).
4. A. Yagodin. "Heroldes" - the cloud formations predicting the earthquakes.
http://sites.google.com/site/earthquakepredict/heroldes-1
5.A.Yagodin. "EARTHQUAKE GENESIS". http://www.inauka.ru/analysis/article102744.html
"GRAVITATIONAL SEISMIC RESONANCE AS THE EARTHQUAKE GENESIS".
http://inauka.ru/blogs/article103539
6. L.N. Petrova, E.G.Orlov, V.V. Karpinsky. "Dynamics and structure of the Earth oscillations in December 2004. Observations by the gravimeter in St. Petersburg." NIIF of FOKA SpbU. Phizika of the Earth. 2007." No.2