Vector Theory of Change

In finding out what occupies people’s attention and imagination through the collection of micro-stories and interpretation patterns, we start seeing areas of what is generally working and what is not: What is normal, what is new and old, we see indications of grievances, fears, frustrations, assumptions, ideas and ideations. All of these come with the micro-narratives to show the context of the actual lived experience.  

Once we map the narrative landscape to see what the current dispositional state of the collective that has participated is, the next step is to involve people from within that collective and relevant stakeholders (such as public authorities, decision-makers etc) in the actual sense-making phase. 

There are two questions that lead this phase: 
1) What sense are we making of these patterns in these contexts? What meaning do we draw?
2) What can we do already tomorrow, to have fewer stories like these (negative ones) and more like those (positive ones) 

According to Dave Snowden, this approach allows us to look at where we have the potential to change, and where change would be near impossible to achieve. I These questions engage people in action and allow us to “take an approach that measures vectors (speed and direction) rather than an explicit outcome or goal. The question also allows widespread engagement in small actions in the present, which reduces the unexpected (and potentially negative) consequences of large-scale interventions.” (Dave Snowden: “Change through small actions in the present”, Blog; 8/2015; Linda Doyle: Change and Complexity: Vector Theory of Change,@The Cynefin Centre, 2022).  

The concept of a vector based theory of change allows for emergence within a system such as unanticipated consequences (both positive and negative) and moves away from the traditional theory of change whereby the goal or end point is a defined static thing, which within a political context can often become corrupted or lead to ends justifying means. Instead a Vector based theory of change encourages people to question which way (values, behaviours etc) they need to orient towards and to review this on a regular basis as the environment itself adapts the way (and direction) in which we need to respond.  “In complexity you define a direction of travel, not a goal, because as you start on a journey you will discover things you didn't know you could discover which have high utility, if you have an explicit goal you may miss the very things you need to discover” - Dave Snowden  The primary principle of a vector theory of change is to map realise the evolutionary potential of the present, and chart a change process based upon the speed, direction and energy cost of change, and a recognition that as the system itself changes, the direction or anticipated outcome or end point may also need to change.*

Snowden, Dave. 2015. Change through Small Actions in the Present. The Cynefin Co (blog). August 21, 2015. https://thecynefin.co/change-through-small-actions-in-the-present/.