一、什么是乌卡时代。What is the VUCA Era? 

乌卡时代，即VUCA ，指的是易变不稳定（volatile）、不确定（uncertain）、复杂（complex）、模糊（ambiguous）。将四个英文字头组合起来，与当今社会环境结合一体，构成一个完整的概念词汇——乌卡时代。是指我们目前正处于一个易变性、不确定性、复杂性、模糊性的世界里。“易变性”是指事情变化非常快，“不确定性”是说我们不知道下一步的方向在哪儿，“复杂性”意味着每件事会影响到另外一些事情，“模糊性”表示关系不明确。What is the Uka Era?

The Uka  era, or VUCA, refers to volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous. The combination of four English characters and the integration of today's social environment constitute a complete conceptual vocabulary - Uka era. It means that we are currently living in a world of variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity. "Variability" means things change very quickly, "uncertainty" means we don't know where we're going next, "complexity" means everything affects something else, and "ambiguity" means relationships aren't clear.

这是由宝洁公司（Procter & Gamble）首席运营官罗伯特·麦克唐纳（Robert McDonald）最先提出的。他借用一个军事术语来描述这一新的商业世界格局：“这是一个 VUCA （乌卡）的世界。”发展于军事，应用于商业，现在已经通过咨询公司和学院进行研究和传播。

It was first proposed by Robert McDonald, chief operating officer of Procter & Gamble. He borrows a military term to describe this new business world: "It's a VUCA world." Developed in the military and applied to business, it has now been studied and disseminated through consulting firms and academies. 

二、为什么会出现乌卡时代。Why the VUCA era happened?

主要是科技革命、互联网浪潮、经济危机、地区冲突、全球化带来的社会变化等因素的共同作用下造成的，具体原因如下：It is mainly caused by the combined effects of scientific and technological revolution, Internet wave, economic crisis, regional conflicts, social changes brought about by globalization and other factors. The specific reasons are as follows: 

1、科技信息技术的不断进步导致了易变性。现在的世界已经进入变化的时代，一切问题来源于变化。科技更新、信息传递、时代发展都日新月异。摩尔定律就是最好的例证：集成电路上可容纳的元器件的数目，约每隔18个月便会增加一倍，性能也将提升一倍。换言之，电脑性能，将每隔18-24个月翻一倍，价格降低一倍。这一定律揭示了信息技术进步的速度是以指数级增长的。信息技术让人类开始步入了快车道并越来越有加速趋势。苹果产品每年就迭代一次，现在已经迭代了十多次。小米过去短短的五六年时间，就走过了创立、生存、成长、触顶、回落、转型的周期，可谓高度浓缩的体验。还有BATJ及拼多多等都是指数级增长的代表。1. The continuous progress of science and technology leads to variability. Now the world has entered an era of change, and all problems come from change. Science and technology update, information transmission, the development of The Times are changing with each passing day. Moore's Law is the best example: the number of components that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit doubles about every 18 months, and so does performance. In other words, computer power will double every 18 to 24 months, and the price will double. This law reveals that the rate of progress in information technology increases exponentially. Information technology has enabled human beings to step into the fast lane and become more and more accelerated. Apple products are iterated once a year, and now have been iterated more than a dozen times. In the past five or six years, Xiaomi has gone through the cycle of creation, survival, growth, peak, fall, and transformation, which can be described as a highly concentrated experience. BATJ and Pinduoduo are representatives of exponential growth. 

2、价值观的开放和多元导致了不确定性。是指人们不知道下一步的发展方向是什么？结果如何？社会的进步让人们思想得到解放，但是人文的进步与技术的创新不能同步，技术进步带来的成果不能被多数人享有。所以人们出现了精神的撕裂、价值观的分裂，需求呈现多元化，对世界的看法存在种种不确定。例如2016年的种种黑天鹅事件，特朗普当选，英国脱欧等都打破了我们的”常规“认知。2. The openness and diversity of values lead to uncertainty. It means people don't know what the next step is. What was the result? Social progress has liberated people's minds, but the progress of humanity and technological innovation cannot keep pace, and the achievements brought by technological progress cannot be enjoyed by the majority of people. Therefore, people are torn in spirit, divided in values, diversified in needs, and uncertain in their views on the world. For example, various black swan events in 2016, the election of Trump, Brexit and so on have broken our "normal" cognition. 

3、互联网+时代的不断创新导致了复杂性。复杂性意味着每件事的发生会影响到另外一些事情。互联网+让社会知识的积累和各种信息的传播变得方便而迅速，让全世界成为一个统一的市场，种种颠覆性的商业模式层出不穷。让我们所处环境由“复杂”发展到“错综复杂”的状况。甚至打败自己的就不是竞争对手，而是不相关的某一个行业。谁会想到取缔黑车的不是政府部门，而是滴滴；让小偷失业的不是警察，而是支付宝。3. Constant innovation in the Internet + era has led to complexity. Complexity means that everything that happens affects something else. Internet + makes the accumulation of social knowledge and the spread of various information convenient and rapid, so that the world becomes a unified market, and various disruptive business models emerge in an endless stream. Let our environment from "complex" to "complex" situation. Even beating oneself is not a competitor, but an unrelated industry. Who would have thought it was Didi, not the government, that banned unlicensed cars? It's Alipay, not the police, that makes thieves lose their jobs. 

4、传统的思维习惯导致了模糊性。互联网及人工智能等技术的加速应用给人类的工作和生活带来了突如其来的现实变化。但是人们看待问题还是利用传统的思维习惯去思考，处理问题绝大多数时候也只能靠过往的经验模式做决策。这样以来，我们就会越来越看不清未来，也越来越看不清自己，很有可能出现模糊现象而迷失方向。柯达、诺基亚可以一夜之间倒下去；索尼、松下可以瞬间在市场上消失；家乐福、沃尔马等可以说撤就撤……我们不认识这个时代，不知道我们处在一个什么样的环境下，不知道如何看待种种难以置信的事。4. Traditional habits of thought lead to ambiguity. The accelerated application of technologies such as the Internet and artificial intelligence has brought sudden real changes to human work and life. However, people still use traditional thinking habits to think about problems, and most of the time they can only make decisions based on past experience. In this way, we will become more and more unable to see the future, but also more and more unable to see themselves, it is likely to appear fuzzy phenomenon and lost direction. Kodak and Nokia could collapse overnight; SONY and Panasonic can disappear from the market in an instant; Carrefour, Wal-Mart, etc. can be said to withdraw... We don't know this time, we don't know what kind of environment we are in, we don't know how to look at all kinds of unbelievable things.