平庸新时代 The New Era of Mediocrity

我们姑且把苏联解体后至今的30余年称作是人类历史上的一个“新时代”。从大量的显性指标来阅读这个时代，很难不认为这是人类有史以来最好的年代。在这三十年中，绝少发生主要大国之间的军事对抗，地球整体处于前所未有的和平状态；世界经济快速增长，全球化如火如荼，十亿计的旧大陆人脱离了食不果腹的贫困生活；科技水平飞升，地球上相距任意远的两个人之间已经能够做到近乎零成本交流，甚至银翼杀手、黑客帝国式的神话已经看到了实现的曙光；其他的诸如人均产出、人均寿命、人均受教育水平、人均这样人均那样，基本都保持了年复一年的稳定增长。上个时代的茨维格、罗素等人为纳粹帝国即将颠覆美好的昨日世界而扼腕叹息，我想他们如果有机会看到七八十年后的世界，大概也会反思：自己身上携带的知识分子特有的矫情是否太多了？

Let us tentatively refer to the more than 30 years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a "new era" in human history. Judging by numerous visible indicators, it is hard not to regard this period as the best in human history. Over these three decades, there has been a notable absence of military confrontations between major powers, and the world has experienced an unprecedented level of peace. The global economy has grown rapidly, globalization has flourished, and hundreds of millions of people in the old continent have escaped the grip of hunger and poverty. Technological progress has soared, enabling near-zero-cost communication between any two people on Earth, and even the once-mythical visions of Blade Runner or The Matrix seem closer to becoming reality. Other metrics, such as per capita productivity, life expectancy, education levels, and various other per capita indicators, have consistently shown steady year-on-year growth. Thinkers of the previous era, like Stefan Zweig and Bertrand Russell, lamented the looming destruction of their beautiful world by the Nazi empire. Yet, if they had the opportunity to witness the world seventy or eighty years later, they might reflect on whether the intellectual tendency toward sentimentality, so characteristic of their kind, was somewhat excessive.

理性上来讲，上述的所有事实大概没什么可质疑的。但作为一个个活生生的当代人，我们真的会感觉到时代在逐渐变好吗？这种调查当然是非常难做的。年轻人没有经历过上一个时代，老年人则可能为了对抗影响力衰退的焦虑感而自发地给“古早的黄金时代”套上滤镜。本文不打算也没能力去做如此浩大的调研工作；但是，抛砖引玉式地给出一些观察，以期见微知著，倒也不失为一件颇有乐趣的事情。

Rationally speaking, the above facts are hardly questionable. But as living, breathing individuals of the present era, do we genuinely feel that the times are gradually improving? Conducting such a survey would, of course, be extremely challenging. Young people have no experience of the previous era, while older generations may, in their anxiety to counteract the sense of declining influence, unconsciously idealize the "golden age of the past." This article neither intends nor has the capacity to undertake such an ambitious investigative endeavor. However, offering a few observations as a way to spark discussion and encourage deeper insights—like throwing out a brick to attract jade—is still a worthwhile and enjoyable exercise.

第一个观察，来自NBA。本人篮球水平近乎于零，也已经有至少十多年没有完整地看过一场球，但最近以来倒是经常在NBA相关的舆论场逛逛。球迷之间的互黑当然是舆论场的日常，但相关信息接触多时，却总能发现一些意想不到的暗线，比如：NBA的风气，已实实在在地与几十年前发生了改变。乔丹以及更早的时代，不同队伍的球员之间势同水火，不同队伍的顶级球星之间更是你死我活的关系。而进入21世纪以后，事情开始慢慢产生了变化；不同球队的老大球星之间抱团取暖开始变成家常便饭，如乔丹、科比一般的偏执狂巨星似乎越来越少，联盟的比赛规则越来越向着重效率、轻对抗的方向演化，裁判对于比赛结果的影响力也变得越发显著。NBA联盟，看上去越来越像是一个在精心运营产品（比赛、球星）的公司，而不是胜负为王的战场。

The first observation comes from the NBA. My basketball skills are only better than nothing, and it’s been at least a decade since I’ve watched a full game. However, I’ve recently found myself spending time in NBA-related discussions. While fan rivalries and banter are part of the daily discourse, prolonged exposure to this world reveals some surprising undercurrents. For instance, the culture of the NBA has undergone a noticeable shift compared to decades ago. In the era of Michael Jordan and earlier, players from different teams were fierce rivals, and the relationships between top stars of competing teams were often cutthroat. However, as the 21st century unfolded, things began to change. It has become increasingly common for star players from different teams to band together for mutual benefit. Obsessively competitive superstars like MJ or Kobe Bryant seem to be fewer and farther between. The league’s rules have progressively evolved to emphasize efficiency over physicality, and referees now have a more pronounced influence on game outcomes. The NBA today appears less like a battlefield where victory reigns supreme and more like a meticulously managed company focused on marketing its products—games and star players.

第二个观察，来自好莱坞。作为商业电影的王者，好莱坞在全世界的影响力并没有发生什么衰退，世界影史票房纪录榜单也在快速更迭 — 且几乎全都来自于好莱坞。然而，令我惊讶的是，进入21世纪以后，爆款式的商业电影IP几乎全都来自于上一个时代，乃至于在经典IP的基础上架构平行宇宙、推出周边的方式来营销系列电影成为了保证票房的重要手段。这个可怕的事实意味着：最近二十多年来，已经没有什么新故事能够广泛刺激大众的神经了。（此处敬一下卡梅隆，21世纪后近乎硕果仅存的爆款IP阿凡达便来自于他）重金打造新IP意味着风险，而上述事实清晰地表明，在现在这个时代，打造新IP所固有的风险很难产生对等的回报；或者说，已经越来越少有人愿意去认真设计新故事，也越来越少有人愿意去欣赏新故事了。

The second observation comes from Hollywood. As the king of commercial cinema, Hollywood’s global influence has not diminished, and the list of the highest-grossing films in history continues to be updated rapidly—almost entirely dominated by Hollywood productions. However, what surprises me is that since the turn of the 21st century, nearly all blockbuster commercial movie franchises have originated in the previous era. In fact, building parallel universes and launching spin-offs based on classic IPs has become a critical strategy for ensuring box office success. This troubling reality suggests that, in the past two decades, there have been few truly new stories capable of captivating and stimulating the public’s imagination on a broad scale. (Here, let’s give credit to James Cameron—Avatar, one of the rare blockbuster IPs to emerge after 2000, comes from him.) The creation of new IPs demands heavy investment, and the facts make it clear: in today’s era, the inherent risks of creating new IPs rarely yield commensurate rewards. Put simply, fewer people are willing to carefully craft original stories, and fewer audiences are inclined to appreciate them.

第三个观察，则是前两个观察的一个补充。从逻辑上来说，就算是NBA、好莱坞电影的质量确实在显著衰退，那也可以被解释为：这类成熟的娱乐形式已经进入了瓶颈期，更具有活力的新娱乐形式在逐步替代它们。然而，这种更有活力的娱乐形式是什么呢？Tiktok短视频？手机游戏？直播？它们的确挤占了很大一部分的娱乐市场，可是从直觉上来讲，这种碎片化的娱乐形式似乎不应该和NBA比赛、好莱坞电影相提并论。

The third observation serves as a supplement to the previous two. Logically, even if the quality of NBA games or Hollywood films has indeed declined significantly, one could argue that these mature entertainment forms have simply hit a plateau, and more dynamic, emerging entertainment formats are gradually taking their place. But what are these more vibrant alternatives? TikTok short videos? Mobile games? Livestreaming? These formats have undoubtedly claimed a substantial share of the entertainment market. However, intuitively, such fragmented forms of entertainment don’t seem comparable to NBA games or Hollywood films in terms of scale or impact.

如果你也认可上述的观察结果，那么接下来我们就要进入“见微知著”的环节了。这些结果，背后应该是怎样的一套逻辑在支撑？首先要承认，这些演化结果的背后大概率并没有什么强力组织在推动，而是正儿八经的市场选择。如果市场选择的观点成立，那就意味着推动这些变化的实际上是全人类的时代精神的转变。这是什么样的一种时代精神？从NBA的角度来看，我们的时代精神从争强好胜变成了娱乐至上，“你好我好大家好”；从好莱坞的角度来看，我们的时代精神从开拓创新变成了套路为王；而从第三个观察结果的角度，我们的时代精神更是从追求精美变成了追求性价比、追求猎奇、追求极致的感官刺激。隐藏在这三者背后的主线，那就是我们这个新时代真正的特点了，它或许就是 — 缺乏有共鸣的故事。

If you agree with the observations above, we can now move into the phase of "seeing the big picture from small details." What underlying logic supports these outcomes? First, we must acknowledge that these developments are unlikely to be driven by any powerful organization; rather, they are genuine results of market choices. If this premise holds, it suggests that the driving force behind these changes is a shift in the zeitgeist of humanity. What kind of zeitgeist is this? From the perspective of the NBA, it is a shift from competitiveness to entertainment-first: "everyone wins, everyone’s happy." From Hollywood’s perspective, it is a shift from innovation and exploration to formulaic dominance. And from the third observation, it reflects a shift from pursuing refinement to chasing cost-effectiveness, novelty, and extreme sensory stimulation. The thread connecting all three shifts points to the true hallmark of this new era, which might be described as a lack of resonant stories.

从意识形态的层面来讲，新时代也是有故事的。新时代的主流价值观，我们可爱的学者们把它叫做"全球化"，背后的支撑思想是"新自由主义"。怎么解释新自由主义，这又是一个复杂的命题；但大致上来说，它可以被总结为“每个人自由地过好自己的生活就是人类整体利益最大化的方式”。这个故事的力量也是非常强大的，它战胜了那个要把全人类带进物质极大丰富的新社会的故事，并且还在逐步侵占拥有几千年历史的神圣故事的地盘。可是，这个故事听上去却又是那么地诡异；它就好比罗素的理发师悖论一样，“我们的故事就是不要有太宏大的故事”，“我们的故事就是每个人都讲好自己的故事”。是的，这个“没有故事的故事”有效地避免了一些人用不着调的故事把一大群人带到坑里的悲剧，拒绝了尼采的超人，拒绝了魏玛的元首；然而，缺乏故事的人怎么会去竭尽所能地展现自己的生命力呢？故事就是生命的意义，生活的意义；圣经的故事塑造了西方文明的底色，阻击希特勒的故事塑造了二战后的全球秩序。现在这些大的故事已经没有了，就算有也没多少人愿意听了。新时代已经是有史以来最美好的时代，大家活好自己就行了。你们活好自己，社会就会自动变好，哪里还需要去编造什么故事来激励人呢？所以NBA球员自然不需要像乔丹、科比一样执着，联盟安排下剧情刷刷分刷刷篮板刷刷助攻，弄几个话题保证热度、保证收视率就好了；好莱坞也不需要费尽心思编制新IP，花那心思干嘛，凑齐几个人气角色卖卖周边产品，编剧导演演员观众谁会不高兴呢？至于新的娱乐形式，我设计最便捷、最高效的方式吸引了你的注意力，你有了身心刺激，我收获了流量，这不是双赢吗？大家都讲好自己的故事，听着确实很美好，但是讲着讲着，好像到最后大家讲的都变成了差不多的故事 — 看谁能更高效地赚钱，或者换个说法，“谁更能change the world”。

On an ideological level, the new era does have its own story. The dominant value system of this era—what our dear scholars like to call "globalization"—is underpinned by the philosophy of "neoliberalism." Explaining neoliberalism is a complex task, but it can be broadly summarized as: “The best way to maximize humanity’s collective welfare is for each person to freely live their best life.” This narrative is undeniably powerful. It triumphed over the story of building a new society of material abundance for all humanity and has steadily encroached on the territory of sacred stories that have existed for millennia. Yet, at the same time, this story feels oddly paradoxical—like Russell's barber paradox. “Our story is to avoid having grand stories.” Or, “Our story is for everyone to simply tell their own story.” Indeed, this "storyless story" has effectively avoided the tragedies of grandiose narratives leading masses into ruin. It rejects Nietzsche’s Übermensch and Weimar’s Führer. But without compelling stories, how can individuals summon the will to fully express the vitality of their lives? Stories give meaning to life and existence. The Bible's stories shaped the foundation of Western civilization. The story of resisting Hitler shaped the post-WWII global order. Now, these grand narratives are gone—or, even if they exist, few people are willing to listen. The new era is already the most prosperous in human history. People just need to focus on living their best lives. If everyone lives well, society will naturally improve. Why would we need elaborate stories to inspire anyone? Thus, NBA players no longer need to exhibit the relentless drive of Jordan or Kobe. Instead, the league crafts narratives with carefully orchestrated plots, padding stats, grabbing rebounds, and piling up assists. A few buzzworthy topics here and there ensure the heat and ratings stay up. Similarly, Hollywood doesn’t need to rack its brains creating new IPs. Why bother? Gather a few beloved characters, sell some merch, and everyone—writers, directors, actors, and audiences—ends up happy. As for the new forms of entertainment, their aim is clear: design the most convenient and efficient ways to grab attention. You get a jolt of mental and physical stimulation; I gain traffic and revenue. Isn’t that a win-win? Everyone tells their own story—it sounds wonderful in theory. But as the stories are told, they all start to sound eerily similar: Who can make money more efficiently? Or to put it another way: “Who can change the world?”

当然，我决不是宗教式宏大叙事的支持者，我也不知道这个没有故事的新时代是好还是坏。众所周知，一些国家在上个世纪曾经也试图讲大故事，但是最后也讲成了大事故。如果大家讲不好故事，那么少讲故事、多过生活也不是什么不可接受的选择。可是缺少动人故事的生活是什么样的呢？我不想说好话，也懒得讲坏话，干脆就用一个绝对中性、四平八稳的词语来形容好了 —

Of course, I am by no means an advocate for grand religious-style narratives, nor do I claim to know whether this storyless new era is good or bad. It’s well known that some countries in the last century tried to tell grand stories but ended up turning them into grand disasters. If people cannot tell good stories, then telling fewer stories and focusing more on living life isn’t an entirely unacceptable option. But what is life like without compelling stories? I don’t want to offer praise, nor am I inclined to criticize. Instead, let me describe it with an absolutely neutral, perfectly balanced term —

请致敬我们的平庸新时代。

Let us pay tribute to our New Era of Mediocrity.