Significance of the Great Lakes
The Great Lakes region consists of both Canadian and United State’s territory, and residents living in the region make use of what the natural lakes have to offer.
The North American Great Lakes cover an area of 244,000km2 and account for 18% of the world’s total freshwater supply, making them the largest freshwater system in the world (Kayastha, Ye & Huang et al., 2022).
People rely on the lakes as a source of drinking water, to meet transportation needs, and for recreational activities (Bartolai et al., 2015; Seglenieks and Temgoua, 2022).
Aside from human needs, the stability of ecosystems and coastal systems are heavily dependent on the levels of the Great Lakes (Kayastha et al., 2022).
With all of the resources and beneficial qualities that the Great Lakes have to offer for humans, ecosystems, and environmental processes, it is all the more important to ensure that these attributes are protected for present and future generations.
Focus of This Research
Lake Levels: A Determinant Factor
Illustration demonstrating how NBS is calculated
Analyzing climate change impacts on a regional scale helps to gain a better understanding of how a particular environment or community is impacted by the problem. In order to measure both present and future climate change projections, a mix of models are utilized. One such model is the Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM), which is used to help predict future net basin supplies (NBS) of the Great Lakes. The NBS helps to make predictions regarding future water levels of lakes and is calculated by summing a lake’s precipitation and basin runoff together, minus the total evaporation of water from the lake (Kayastha et al., 2022).
A study by Seglenieks and Temgoua (2022) utilized the NBS along with various models including the Coordinated Great Lakes Regulation and Routing Model (CGLRRM) to make lake level projections if the global temperature were to increase by 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, or 3.0°C over 30 years.
Results for both the NBS and CGLRRM showed that:
lake level increases as the global temperature increases
the range of lake levels, such as high and low extremes, broadens
These results are supported by the fact that changes in the balance of precipitation and evaporation have been found to have a connection with water level variation in North America (Watras et al., 2022).
Why are Changing Lake Levels a Problem?
Lake levels not only impact ecosystems and coastal processes (Kayastha et al., 2022), they have connections with the communities in the Great Lakes region as well. According to Seglenieks and Temgoua (2022), the water levels of the Great Lakes are of great concern to people, businesses, and institutions in and around the Great Lakes region.
The Great Lakes hold heavy ties to the economy of the region given their contribution to power production, tourism, and their relationship with the shipping industry.
As reported by Campbell, Cooper and Friedman et al. (2015):
when the lake levels are lower, the shipping industry in the region becomes less profitable, impacting the price of the goods and services involved in the shipping
Boating for recreational purposes and tourism altogether decline in congruence with lower lake levels.
In some cases, even property values of homes along the shore are impacted negatively by low lake levels.
The lakes act as homes and provide resources to plant and animal species (Seglenieks and Temgoua, 2022).
When lake levels are exceptionally high, there can be coastal erosion (Campbell et al., 2015).
As the lake levels have fluctuated throughout history, both society and the environment have been able to adapt accordingly; however, the current rate of climate change is posing a significant threat to the Great Lakes basin that cannot be as easily accommodated for. This brings up the importance of being able to effectively predict and plan for the future levels of the Great Lakes (Seglenieks and Temgoua, 2022).
Additional Climate Change Disturbances Threatening Sustainability
Climate change is creating more disturbances to communities in the Great Lakes region such as more extreme storms, warmer water temperatures, and a reduction in ice cover, all of which making it harder for coastal communities to remain sustainable.
It is difficult for coastal communities to respond to climate change related disturbances because some impacts last longer than others, creating variability in social responses.
Short-term variability would occur as a result of a storm that has the potential to threaten infrastructure along the coasts. Storms result in short term lake level variation because of the existence of high winds and low pressure systems in the Great Lakes region (Farhadzadeh, Hashemi & Neill, 2017).
Long-term variability would be climate change as a whole and how it affects lake levels across decades and even centuries. (Bergstrom et al., 2022).
As previously mentioned, the range of the Great Lakes’ levels are projected to expand, making the lows and highs of lake levels to be more extreme (Seglenieks and Temgoua, 2022). With more extreme highs means that there will be more storms, thus creating more short term variability for communities, only making it even harder for communities to adapt to climate change problems. Given the expanding range of extremes it is important for this expansion to be considered when creating future infrastructure plans near the coast of the Great Lakes (Seglenieks and Temgoua, 2022).
The uncertainty surrounding climate change causes society to become overdependent on resource extraction, leading to increased environmental degradation. Also, the acceleration of resource extraction results in more social disparity among the communities in the Great Lakes region, only adding more difficulty to adjusting to climate change impacts (Williams, 2015).
In the past, the Great Lakes basin’s air temperature increased by 0.7°C between 1895 and 1999. The increase in air temperature was not consistent across all of the Great Lakes basin; the northern section was found to face the largest increase in winter and early spring temperatures between 1900 and 1998 (Bartolai et al., 2015).
As for precipitation levels, there was an increase of 10.7cm, approximately 13%, between 1955 and 2004, the majority of which happening throughout the summer and winter seasons
Trends also showed that the ratio of snow to total precipitation decreased, which makes sense considering there was also evidence of warmer temperatures in the late winter and early spring.
By 2063, it is projected that the average annual temperature will have increased by 1-3°C, and that the frequency of intense precipitation events are expected to increase as well (Bartolai et al., 2015).
These changes in temperature and precipitation levels will also impact both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, such as alterations in insect and bird migration patterns, as well as changes in fish recruitment patterns (Zhang et al., 2020).
Research Objectives and Justification
The Great Lakes, like many other places around the world, act as a resource for humans both socially and economically, and are also home to several aquatic species. Climate change is both a social and ecological issue, and as the wicked problem intensifies, the disturbances brought to surface only become harder for communities to respond to (Bergstrom et al., 2022). If climate change is already causing communities to struggle with making appropriate adaptations in response to climate change, then the struggles will only continue unless societal adjustments are made.
The chosen framework for this research proposal is the Climate Resilience Theory. Climate resilience refers to developing a community’s ability to better respond to climate change impacts. Specifically, climate resilience aims to improve ways in which a community copes with, adapts to, and recovers from climate change events.
Breakdown of Constructs:
Climate change exposure refers to how exposed a community is to climate change impacts
Vulnerability refers to a community’s susceptibility and sensitivity to climate change impacts (Al-Humaiqani & Al-Ghamdi, 2022). Vulnerability can be further analyzed as individual factors of different disciplines:
Geographical location
Health (ie. access to healthcare; physical health)
Environmental factors (ie. proximity to pollutant sources)
Social and economic factors (ie. ethnicity, social class, age, race)
Five Pillars:
A community’s threshold capacity refers to the ability to prevent damage through the implementation of preventative thresholds in the community.
Coping capacity is the extent to which a community copes with extreme climatic events and reduces the damage attributable to such events.
Recovery capacity surrounds the community’s capability to recover from a climatic event, whether this be back to the community’s original state or even creating an improved state.
Adaptive capacity indicates the ability in which the community is able to anticipate and prepare for future climate change impacts that are rather uncertain.
Transformative capacity is the community’s capability in strengthening stakeholder capacities, creating a well managed environment, and properly transitioning to a climate resilient society (De Graaf & Ovink, 2020).
Applying Climate Resilience to the Great Lakes Region:
In order to effectively apply the Climate Resilience framework to communities and ecosystems in the Great Lakes region, several components need to be measured.
Threshold capacity: the methods that communities use in effort to reduce environmental or physical damage as a result of a climate change impact will be measured.
Coping capacity: the social response of communities to a climate event such as a storm will be evaluated. Because storms often occur unpredictably, evaluating society’s response to such an event would be a true testament to its ability to cope with disturbances.
Recovery capacity: the infrastructure situated along the coastline will be the main focus. The condition of the infrastructure prior to a storm will be compared to the condition of the infrastructure following the occurrence of an extreme storm and after remediation measures have been taken.
Adaptive capacity: will be measured through the usage and adaptation of climate change models. What models have been utilized as well as the modifications that have been made in effort to improve the effectiveness of models will be analyzed.
Transformative capacity: analyze what changes society (the Great Lakes region) is making towards transitioning to a more climate-resilient society. This can pertain to mitigation strategies or changes in regional policies.
Analyzing all five capacity components together will act as an appropriate measure of the overall climate resilience of the Great Lakes region.
Thank You for Viewing My Proposal!
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