Model Y/3 Reservations

Tesla generally assigns reservation numbers for products sequentially (with the possible exception that cancelled reservation numbers are returned to the pool and reused). Model Y, Model 3, Model X, Model S, Roadster, and Solar reservations are verified to currently pull reservation numbers (RNs) from the same number pool as the Cybertruck. It is highly likely that Battery and Semi also absorb RNs from the same pool. Because of this, predicting non-Cybertruck reservations is useful in estimating net Cybertruck reservation growth. In order to improve our estimates of non-Cybertruck reservations we use all data available and validate our estimates against quarterly production and deliveries. We have found data from twitter user TroyTeslike to be particularly helpful (https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike). We use all this data to estimate Model Y and Model 3 reservations and then to net these reservations from our reservation count. This still leaves solar and possibly battery, Roadster, Semi, Model X, and Model S interleaving with our data. In the future we hope to also account for these reservations.

We have used raw data reported from the crowdsourced TroyTeslike Tesla Model Y reservation and delivery survey and distilled it into estimated Model Y reservation history. To do this we first estimate the % penetration of the survey data as: (number of VINs reported to be assigned) divided by (the largest VIN reported). As reported by Bloomberg Model 3 estimator, VIN growth can exceed delivery growth by large margins (30+%). Therefore, we compare our summed Model 3 and Model Y delivery estimates to quarterly reports and scale the % penetration estimates accordingly. We then apply this scale to all counts in order to scale to estimated totals. The Model Y data set is currently over 4000 reported reservations with approximately 2000 VINs assigned. As more data is reported the estimates will fluctuate, especially as new largest VINs are reported). The red diamonds on the plot below represent Quarterly reporting dates.

We have taken data reported from the Teslike Model Y crowdsource reservation and delivery survey and distilled it into estimated Model Y reservations. Several caveats: 1) We use largest reported VIN to establish total Model Y VINs. We then establish a scale factor to scale the data count to the VIN count. This scale factor is then applied to reservation statistics as well as cancellation statistics. Our estimates likely lag the actual totals as our data is on the order of only 3% of all reservations; suggesting that larger VINs are likely on the street. However, this is counterbalanced by the observation that not all VINs make it to a delivered Model Y. In the past, Bloomberg found up to a 25% VIN spoilage factor for the Model 3. Lastly we assume , based on data reservation data submitted to us, that Model Y did not take RNs from the Cybertruck pool until after 70 days. Prior to that the Model Y VINs are from a distinct RN pool that is almost 1,000,000 less than the Cybertruck pool. More information on this can be found on the Model 3/Y page of this website.

We have taken data reported from the crowdsourced Teslike Model 3 reservation and delivery survey and distilled it into estimated Model 3 reservations. Several caveats: 1) We use largest reported VIN to establish total Model 3 VINs. We then establish a scale factor to scale the data count to the VIN count. This scale factor is then applied to reservation statistics as well as cancellation statistics. Our estimates likely lag the actual totals as our data is on the order of only 3% of all reservations; suggesting that larger VINs are likely on the street. However, this is counterbalanced by the observation that not all VINs make it to a delivered Model Y. In the past, Bloomberg found up to a 25% VIN spoilage factor for the Model 3. Lastly we assume , based on data reservation data submitted to us, that Model Y did not take RNs from the Cybertruck pool until after 70 days. Prior to that the Model Y VINs are from a distinct RN pool that is almost 1,000,000 less than the Cybertruck pool. More information on this can be found on the Model 3/Y page of this website.