Cybertruck Tracking Methodology

Reservation Number Interleaving: We started with the assumption that Tesla assigns reservation numbers (RNs) for Cybertruck sequentially as they are made.  The data we have collected to date strongly supports this assumption.  In addition, we can confirm that Cybertruck reservation numbers are interleaved with other Tesla reservations.  Therefore, we can not simply rely on RN growth to estimate Cybertruck reservation growth.  Our estimate of overall Cybertruck reservations is implicitly connected to our estimate of other interleaved Tesla orders. The more non-Cybertruck reservation data we have, the more accurately we can account for this interleaving and therefore the more accurately we can predict Cybertruck RN growth.  Up through Elon's tweet of 250k Cybertrucks ordered, we were able to directly estimate this interleaving (it was up to 10% non-Cybertruck orders) by comparing raw RN growth to Elon's tweets.  Over the last two years there has been no additional news of total orders from Tesla or Elon. A significant amount of our time is spent working on estimates of net Cybertruck RN growth.  Below we discuss several methods we currently use to do this, as well as current results. As we collect more reservation information of all types, our Cybertruck reservation estimates will naturally improve. This will result in periodic adjustments to estimated delivery dates. If you reserved any tesla product that resulted in a reservation number (RNXXXXXXXX) since 2019 please consider submitting that information to the tracker. You should be able to find a reservation number and reservation date in the confirmation email sent by Tesla.

Corrections for Interleaving: Through roughly 70 days after the launch of Cybertruck reservations, we were naïve and believed that  Cybertruck reservation numbers were pulled from a set of RNs that were set aside just for Cybertruck (we believed we were special). This conjecture was reinforced by the sheer volume of Cybertruck reservations that dwarfed all other Tesla reservations. We saw some hints of disagreement from inflections in the growth curve to include a mysterious 25k jump in RN numbers on day 14; however, up through 70 days, total Tesla reservations closely tracked a natural logarithmic growth curve (after the 25k jump was removed).  Around 70 days,  Tesla made a  surprise announcement that Model Y would be delivered months earlier than originally advertised.  This announcement led to a rapid ramp up of Model Y orders and noticeable inflection in Tesla RN growth. This lead to a crisis in our modeling efforts. Shortly after this we ripped up our logarithmic model and now use a piecewise model of different fits.  For select time intervals we estimate an interleaving ratio and apply that to the data then fit that data to a simple curve. In essence we are estimating all non-Cybertruck orders that are taking RNs from the pool, as well as cancellations. Our current modeling is necessarily very complex, involving millions of constantly iterating calculations, 4 hidden workbooks with dozens of sheets, and many ongoing improvements that are percolating on the sidelines.  Roughly a year ago, we realized we had to become a global Tesla tracker that tracked ALL Tesla reservations in order to provide proper estimates of the Cybertruck reservations. We are still in  infancy and need to grow our non-Cybertruck reservation data dramatically.  However, we have used the limited non-Cybertruck data to dramatically improve our estimates as discussed later in this section. Our current model still employs percentage adjustment (correction) factors (see tables below); however, we base those on non-Cybertruck reservation data rather than best guesses. We are currently in transition from this model to one that directly nets out raw non-Cybertruck orders. Currently we lack insight into total solar and battery reservations.

Max Growth Principal: 2 Million reservations with 75% cancellation rate is no different than 1 Million reservations with 50% cancellation rate as far as all the statistics and delivery estimates that we provide. And we do believe that the cancellation rate will be high. Ultimately, the number of reservations that will be filled is simply limited to how many Cybertrucks Tesla can produce.  This viewpoint assumes that Tesla will remain production limited and there will be no problem with demand. Given that Tesla has been and remains production limited and the demand for EVs will continue to grow parabolically, it is fairly safe to say demand will far outpace supply for many years.  Therefore, we ultimately believe that cancellations and net reservations will naturally adapt to achievable production goals. For example, many people will likely stop ordering the Cybertruck or cancel their order if delivery is 4 years out. As other EV truck options present themselves the reservation pool will naturally cull itself. We believe that Tesla will find a way ramp  production to 500k Cybertruck /Year within 1.5 year and 1 million Cybertruck within 2.5 years.  Pairing that ramp with estimates of steady state orders leads to a max delivery growth and that can be used to back out how many reservation orders will have to cancel simply because there are not enough Cybertrucks to go around. Please see the Cybertruck Production page.

Quad motor variant: Adding a Quad Motor variant is smart because it allows Tesla to increase margins during the ramp up phase. This is the period when Tesla will be hemorrhaging money no matter what Motor it builds first; however, less hemorrhaging is always better than more hemorrhaging. Tesla has traditionally charged less than $10k to move from single to dual motors with other models, and with rising costs the Tri Motor variant could retail close to the Build Back Better maximum retail price of $80k by the end of 2023. The Quad Motor variant could simply be $10k more ($90k?). However, there also is a very active group of buyers that simply want the best and likely wont even qualify for the BBB rebate. For this, Tesla could come out with a 'Plaid' style 'tour de force' tech packaged Quad Motor. If this happens, the price could be well over $120k (the argument for this is so compelling that its hard to imagine Tesla not doing this) and it could bring in a new pool of buyers that were on the fence with the Tri Motor variant. For now, we have estimated a Quad motor sales price of $99.9k (basically a weighted average of our estimated Quad configurations) and that 8% of reservations will be for that type of Quad Motor.  We have modified our Tracker input form and will look at statistics for all orders made after 12/3/21. Those statistics will then be used to refine what percentage of shuffling to we expect to see. The situation is quite fluid and we would not be surprised if Tesla produces 2 versions of Quad Motors - a Plaid style Quad and a regular Quad. Initial indications from reservation holders is that a majority of Tri-Motor reservation holders would upgrade to a Quad Motor if price is reasonable.  This could easily lead to a lineup of: 1) a new downsized single motor for overseas (many years from now) 2) 'regular' sized Dual Motor 3) Quad Motor, and 4) Plaid-style  Quad Motor. We don't have a crystal ball. However the pre-orders have spoken and it appears that Dual Motor and Tri /Quad Motor are the market choice at this time. We presume that Tesla will allow current reservation holders to configure to the model of choice as the lineup is resolved and to do such without loosing their place in line.

Single Motor variant: It makes sense for Tesla to focus on the most profitable variants first and only begin Single Motor deliveries after 1) higher profit orders are filled, and 2) economies of scale allow Tesla to make a profit on the low priced Single Motor variant. We do not think that Tesla will flat out cancel Single Motor deliveries. We do think there is so much demand for Dual, Tri, and Quad that it will take 3-4 years after production start to make a compelling case for Single Motor production and by that time the single motor variant may morph to a scaled down wheelbase. If Tesla felt differently then I suspect they would already be investing in a second Cybertruck facility.  Tesla already tried lower cost entry Model 3s and Model Ys and eventually phased them out. We believe that self preservation was the motivating factor. Tesla wants to provide low cost EVs; however, not to the extent that it bankrupts them.  It appears the overseas market is potentially ripe for a 3/4 scaled single motor variant and such could make the case for pumping life into Single Motor demand.

Results: Below is a plot of Uncorrected relative Tesla RN number (RN minus RN for the first Cybertruck order) ("Uncorrected Reservation Position" on the plot) and Corrected relative Cybertruck RN number ("Corrected Cybertruck Position" on the plot) versus days since launch .  We currently arrive at Corrected Cybertruck reservations by applying correction factors to Uncorrected Reservation Position. The corrections account for interleaving of non-Cybertruck orders. If Elon tweets again with another update we will adjust correction factors so the Cybertruck estimates once again fit his tweets. In the meantime, we hope to collect significantly more RNs for Tesla products so we can improve on our correction factors (as well as provide interesting statistics for other Tesla products).

We isolate outliers (blue dots significantly below and  significantly above the trendline) and assign an effective Cybertruck reservation based on date of order ('push' the blue dots vertically to the green trendline). At this time we are not sure if a majority of outliers are due to incorrect user reporting or due to Tesla re-using reservation numbers. We currently have made the assumption that the outliers below the blue trendline represent re-issues of cancelled reservation numbers.  A case could be made that outliers above the blue trend line are incorrect reporting and that they should be thrown out of any statistics. We are looking into those by contacting the contributors directly to verify the information.

Correction factors are listed in the table below. All results presented on this site are based on the Corrected reservation  data.  If the correction factor proves to be too high, then our current estimates of revenue and reservation count will be low.  If the correction factor proves to be too low, then our current estimates of revenue and reservation count will be high. Even considering aggressive corrections, the number of outstanding Cybertruck reservations and potential revenue is eye opening!! Please read on to learn more.

Statistics based on actual reported reservations (such as trim percentages and geographical distribution) are not affected by the uncertainty of the correction factors.

Current rationale for the above corrections:

1) We found the best fit to Elon's Tweets (a logarithmic fit) and applied the same correction factor over the period of the Tweets (1.32 Days to 4.59 Days) to correct as close as we could to the curve fit. That correction factor is 10% (Corrected Relative Reservation = Uncorrected Relative Reservation *(90%)).

2) Approximately 70 days after launch, growth in Reservation Number accelerated.  This also coincided with the announcement that Model Y deliveries would begin early. We felt there was no other news that could have lead to a spike in Cybertruck reservation rate and attributed this to the interleaving of Model Y orders. We determined what correction factor was needed to keep Cybertruck reservation rate trends similar to what it was prior to the spike. This lead to  an aggressive 60% correction (meaning 60% of the RNs assigned during this period were not for Cybertrucks).

3) The spike slowed down noticeably at 120 days after launch. This may have been due to Model Y production and delivery slowing due to coronavirus. Around this time Tesla was forced to shut down the Fremont factory.

4) Around 174 days after launch, Model Y production limitations were lifted, and we saw another spike in reservations. We attributed this to interleaving of increased Model Y orders and applied an aggressive 60% correction factor. 

6) Around 240 days after launch, Model Y leasing options were added. This significantly lowered the monthly cash outlay of owning a Model Y (around a 50% reduction if leasing versus financing).  This as well as a large discount in Solar panel pricing, lead to very rapid increase in total Tesla reservations.  As a result our correction factor increased.

7) We have started recording all Tesla reservations and hope in the future to be able to improve correction factors by evaluating the interleaving of other than Cybertruck reservations with Cybertruck reservations. See below for a preliminary analysis of those results.

The yellow curve below is a fit to the corrected Cybertruck reservation data plotted above.  The dark brown curve is the accumulated number of Cybertruck reservations reported to us, scaled to our Fit (yellow curve) at 69 days. This curve (dark brown curve) will increase for dates later than 69 days and decrease for dates prior to 69 days (due to increased representation of more recent Cybertruck orders) as more data is collected. However, it is very useful as a bounding case and to identify highly likely inflections in  Cybertruck reservation growth.  We expect net Cybertruck reservation (blue curve) to lie above this dark brown curve. The blue curve takes the median uncorrected data above and subtracts Model S, X, 3, and Y reservations. The blue curve still contains battery and solar reservations, which we have little data on. Therefore, we expect actual Cybertruck orders to fall below this curve and at least as much as the accumulated Solar and battery reservations which we know are significant. The shape of the blue curve is the result of residual non-Cybertruck orders (Solar, Powerwall,,..) and serves mainly as a bounding case. The first iteration of our Fit (the yellow curve) was based on a logarithmic fit to Elon's Tweets (the green curve). We no longer fit to this data because it does not match our independent comparisons. Elon could have tweeted results that were already minutes or hours old and using only 4 data points for a logarithmic fit is not a very strong method.

We have received data from at least one Cybertruck reservation for each day since launch; and for many dates, we have received data from over 10 reservations. This allows us to use the data to infer reasonableness of our modeling. In the chart below, we look at reservations received as a percent of predicted reservations for each day since launch.  The consistent peak rate linear fall off from 3.5% at day zero to just below 3% on day 220 is consistent with assumptions that contribution rate is independent of time of reservation and that older reservation holders have had more time to find the tracker and contribute (we still receive contributions from reservation  made on day zero). Over time we expect this linear drop to flatten out and if it does not then we will re-evaluate. 

We recently used the above styled data to adjust our correction factors. Around 7/12/20 the above plot looked like the snapshot below which we believe indicated our corrected RN growth was too low after day 175 so we inflected the corrected RN curve slightly.

On November 23, 2019 Elon tweeted: "146k Cybertruck orders so far, with 42% choosing dual, 41% tri & 17% single motor".  Initially, Tesla stated that the Single Motor version would be produced up to a year before the Dual or Tri Motor versions. It appears Tesla was surprised to find that significant reservations opted for the more powerful versions.  In response, around December 5, 2019, Tesla announced the Dual and Tri Motor versions would be produced up to a year before the Single Motor version. Below is a chart of a 9 day simple moving average of percentage of Trim orders based on data reported to us.  Our data represents the current status of any given reservation. In many cases, early reservation makers submitted changes to us indicating they swapped Single Motor to Dual or Tri Motor. We believe this will eventually result a smaller percentage of Single Motor reservations than suggested by Elon's tweet.

On  October 15, 2021 Tesla removed configuration options for future reservations. In response, we modified tracker input by asking what Model they would take at delivery if they had to choose one.  Understandably, this made it more difficult for reservation holders to estimate what model they will take delivery of and one can see the result of this uncertainty in the above chart. On December 3, 2021, Elon Musk stated that Tesla would introduce a Quad Motor variant that would be delivered first; however there were no definitive specs nor pricing. In response, we added the Quad motor variant to the Tracker.  Tesla also stated that reservation holders would be allowed to configure their Cybertruck as production nears; strongly implying that any reservation holder could choose any configuration without loosing their place in line. As a result, we allow tracker participants, at any time, to change their choices based on what Model they plan to  take delivery of.  Amongst the increased uncertainties evident in the above chart, we see two consistent groups of potential buyers forming. The Quad/Tri Motor buyers and the Single/Dual Motor Buyers. In spite of all the changes that have occurred over time, the relative percentage of reservation holders in each group has remained fairly steady. However even within each group, newer reservation holders are opting for the less expensive variants.  Only time will tell if eroding economic conditions will lead to significant defections from the Tri/Quad group to the Single/Dual group. The chart below illustrates how consistent these grouping have been. The fit lines are second order polynomials. Large variations, in 2022, about the fit lines, are due to relative scarcity of data. As more people submit 2022 reservation data the  variations will reduce.