Cybertruck Revenue

The Reservation Tracker has collected statistics on over 52000 Cybertruck reservations. We have used those statistics, along with adjustment assumptions, to estimate total outstanding Cybertruck reservations. On the Cybertruck Production page we  map out our estimate of the production ramp. We use that ramp along current costs per motor configuration, statistical cost of FSD, and statistical FSD buy rates to arrive at a revenue ramp. The results are presented below. 

We are not counting destination charges, delivery charges, registration charges, or taxes. We also assume that income converts between currencies without surcharges.  We simply add up the $USD base charge for each Motor and FSD options at the time the reservation is made. We also independently estimate the total dollar value of all refundable deposits although they do not affect revenue projections.

Below is our, more speculative, assessment of Persistent Reservations. 'Persistent Reservations' are those reservations from the pool of current reservations that will eventually become orders. In order to speculate on this we have to estimate a cancellation rate for each trim type. Our estimated cancellation rates are based on multiple factors; however, they are balanced in a way that Tesla deliveries (Persistent Reservations) match estimated capacity (see Max Growth Principle we discuss on the Cybertruck Tracking page). Although, the assumptions made could be dubious, Persistent Reservations is a more important metric than Net Reservations. We use this data to estimate where one is in line relative to Persistent Reservations and to ultimately estimate the delivery date.

Cybertruck Pricing Estimate: Around October 12, 2021, Tesla removed Cybertruck pricing and configuration options from its Cybertruck pre-order page. This action, taken in conjunction with inflationary pressures, suggests that Tesla will adjust pricing upward. As a result, we added $10,000 to the 2019 stated pricing for each  trim model to arrive at our pricing estimate. This adjustment only affects our revenue predictions. Ultimately, we were motivated to keep the Tri Motor variant below $80k which is the currently proposed cap for government incentives for Trucks. However, if inflationary pressures continue  it would not be out of the question for final pricing to be higher than we estimate. Tesla may also reduce performance to save cost (for example, reducing the proposed 500 mile range of the Tri Motor).  Tesla has never given a Quad Motor price estimate.  Please see our Cybertruck Tracking page for a discussion of the Quad Motor variant and our pricing rationale. In August 2022, Elon stated: “Cybertruck pricing, it was unveiled in 2019, and the reservation was $99. A lot has changed since then, so the specs and the pricing will be different. I hate to give sort of a little bit of bad news, but I think there's no way to sort of have anticipated quite the inflation that we've seen and the various issues.” 

FSD Revenue:  As Tesla has increased the cost of FSD, the percentage of FSD pre-orders has fallen. This is likely in response to cost vs perceived value. When FSD cost increases it could be viewed as less 'worth it' to buy FSD. Similarly, if FSD perceived value decreases it could also be viewed as less 'worth it' to buy FSD. Both of these factors appear to be at play with regard to Cybertruck Reservations. When FSD cost increased we saw a drop in percentage of FSD reservations.  And recently with all the negative FSD publicity, we see a continued drop in percentage of FSD reservations.  However, as more FSD features move out of Beta, the perceived value should increase. FSD transitioned from $7,000 to $8,000 around July 1, 2020. Prior to this increase Elon had been discussing a price increase. As a result we see some loading up of FSD orders prior to 7/1/20 and then a drop off after 7/1/20. Elon gave less of a 'heads up' prior to FSD price transitioning from $8,000 to $10,000.  This transition occurred around  October 20, 2020.  As a result we see a rapid spike in FSD orders a week before 10/20/20 and then a drop off after 10/20/20.  Around October 15, 2021, Tesla removed Cybertruck pricing and configuration options.  This was un announced. As a result, its no longer possible to pre-order FSD. Consequently we have seen a rapid drop off of intent to purchase FSD. We attribute that to a 'wait and see' approach. 

While there is a 'per FSD owner' cost impact at Tesla, that impact is small compared to the fixed 'core' costs of developing FSD. And this core cost is undoubtedly large (> 2 billion $USD by now). To keep FSD from bleeding other operations, Tesla has had to focus on immediate Gross FSD Income. Tesla has achieved that by allowing owners to pre-purchase FSD rights. By our estimates Tesla should have already brought in > 2 Billion $USD by selling these rights.  However, as FSD matures, it may make more sense for Tesla to transition to a subscription-only option for FSD.  This would allow for a steady income stream to balance FSD maintenance costs. The transition from FSD development to FSD maintenance is several years away; therefore Tesla will likely continue to emphasize full FSD rights over subscriptions.  

With the drop off of FSD orders, one could pose the simple question: "What is the optimal cost for FSD that maximizes gross FSD dollars in the short run?" Another way of posing the question is: "Does Tesla leave money on the table each time they increase FSD price? ". Before we ran the statistics, we assumed the drop in FSD orders would result in fewer FSD dollars. In general we were wrong. The market absorbed the increase without significantly impacting gross FSD dollars in a negative way.  AND, Tesla has a dial that they can use with all the owners that opted out on FSD (e.g. they are potential subscription customers). Below are two tables. The first tabulates FSD pre-order rates per Cybertruck Trim / FSD price.  The second tabulates average FSD income per Cybertruck Trim / FSD price. The per vehicle average FSD income has increased in spite of FSD price increases. In addition to the increase in FSD income there are also more potential new customers for FSD (the number that have opted out has increased). For example: Roughly 74% of pre-orders prior to 7/1/20 included FSD and this translated to an average of roughly $5200 per vehicle with 26% remaining as potential future FSD buyers; Roughly 58% of preorders after 10/20/20 included FSD and this translated to $5800 per vehicle with 42% remaining as potential future FSD buyers. The increase from 26% to 42% of potential future FSD buyers is significant. If Tesla ever needed money fast to shore up its books, it could offer a discount to those future FSD buyers.  For example, if Tesla offered half-off FSD and 33% of potential future FSD buyers opted in then Tesla could raise approximately 2 billon $USD (assuming 2m tesla's, 42% non FSD owners, $7500 discounted FSD price) with almost zero cost (all Tesla has to so is  toggle a download switch on 300,000 Tesla's). Several years from now, assuming 50% of Tesla's not opted into FSD and 5 million Tesla's on the road, Tesla could easily generate over $150 million $USD per month in FSD subscription fees; that alone would pay for 5000 high income FSD engineers and some serious supercomputers. Imagine the rate of refinement of autonomous driving with that type of infrastructure! It appears that Tesla continues to successfully thread the autonomy needle and is quickly emerging as a guaranteed autonomous driving powerhouse.

Estimated Million $USD of Booked Cybertruck Orders per Region. Hover cursor over maps for live context sensitive information:

Below tables exclude regions with 5 or fewer contributions to the Reservation Tracker.