Working Papers

Controls, Not Shocks: Estimating Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics
With Ed Manuel
[Latest Draft | April 2024] [CFM Discussion Paper #2024-22 | April 2024]
Previously presented and circulated under the title "Controls, Not Shocks: Estimating Dynamic Causal Effects in the Face of Confounding Factors".

Granular Banking Flows and Exchange-Rate Dynamics
With Balduin Bippus and Daniel Ostry
[Latest Version | January 2024] [Bank of England Staff Working Paper #1043 | September 2023] [Cambridge Working Paper #2359 | September 2023]
Blogs: [Bank Underground]

The Transmission of Macroprudential Policy in the Tails: Evidence from a Narrative Approach
With Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo and Ed Manuel
[ESRB Working Paper #145 | November 2023] [Bank of England Staff Working Paper #1027 | June 2023]
Blogs: [Bank Underground]
Runner Up, 2023 Ieke van den Burg Prize for Research on Systemic Risk, ESRB.

Global Value Chains and International Risk Sharing
With Giancarlo Corsetti, Lucio D'Aguanno, Aydan Dogan and Rana Sajedi
[CEPR Discussion Paper | October 2023] [EUI Working Paper 2023/61 | October 2023]

Aggregation Across Each Nation: Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics
With Noëmie Lisack and Rana Sajedi
[Latest Draft | September 2023] [Banque de France Working Paper #894 | December 2022] [Bank of England Staff Working Paper #982 | May 2022]
Twitter: [Summary Thread]
Previously presented and circulated under the title "Aggregation Across Each Nation: Aggregator Choice and Macroeconomic Dynamics".

Negative Rates, Monetary Policy Transmission and Cross-Border Lending via International Financial Centres
With Desislava Andreeva, Andra Coman, Mary Everett, Maren Froemel, Kelvin Ho, Baptiste Meunier, Justine Pedrono, Dennis Reinhardt, Andrew Wong, Eric Wong and Dawid Żochowski, R&R @ Journal of Financial Stability
[Latest Draft | September 2023] ECB Working Paper #2775 | February 2023] [Bank of England Staff Working Paper #1010 | January 2023]

Financial-Services Trade Restrictions and Lending from an International Financial Centre
With Dennis Reinhardt and Rhiannon Sowerbutts
[Latest Draft | August 2023] [Bank of England Staff Working Paper #1022 | April 2023]

U.S. Risk and Treasury Convenience
With Giancarlo Corsetti, Emile Marin and Daniel Ostry
[Latest Draft | July 2023]

When Growth-at-Risk Hits the Fan: Comparing Quantile-Regression Predictive Densities with Committee Fan Charts
With Giulia Mantoan and Ed Manuel
Update Coming Soon!
[Preliminary Draft | May 2022]

Exchange-Rate Risk and Business Cycles
With Emile Marin
Update Coming Soon!
[Cambridge Working Paper #1996 | October 2021 (Updated)] [Bank of England Staff Working Paper #872 | June 2020 (Old)]
Blogs: [Bank Underground] [VoxEU, by co-authors]
Previously presented and circulated under the title "Uncovered Interest Parity and the Yield Curve: The Long and the Short of It".

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing
[Cambridge Working Paper #1735 | September 2017]

Work in Progress

Long-Term Interest Rates, International Risk Sharing and Global Macroeconomic Spillovers
Last edited: September 2017
Second Prize for Best Ph.D. Paper at the Money, Macro and Finance Annual Conference 2017 under the (former) title "The International Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy to Long-Term Interest Rates in Advanced Economies".