It must be / It can’t be … (deductions about the present)
It must surely be…
It must have (participle) / It can’t have (+ participle)… (deductions about the past)
There must have been…
She is likely to (+inf)
This car is likely to cost a fortune.
The criminal is likely to have left the country days ago.
He is bound to live nearby.
They are bound to have stolen the painting under (the) cover of night.
I’m pretty sure / rather sure it is …
It (certainly) looks like…
MAKING GUESSES
I’m guessing from … that …
I can make a(n) (fairly) educated guess that … (example)
My gut tells me that …
BEING SURE ABOUT SOMETHING
I know for a fact that…
I am well aware that…