Liquidity & Monetary Policy
Global M2 Money Supply
Aggregates M2 from the USA, China, Eurozone, Japan, and UK — the total money in circulation across the world's five largest monetary systems.
Expanding M2 signals increasing liquidity, historically supportive of risk assets. Contracting M2 signals tightening financial conditions.
Federal Funds Rate
The benchmark U.S. interest rate, setting the floor for borrowing costs across the global financial system.
Rising rates reduce risk appetite and increase the cost of capital. Falling rates encourage risk-on behavior and support speculative assets.
Reverse Repo (RRP)
Measures excess cash parked by financial institutions overnight — a direct proxy for system-wide liquidity conditions.
High RRP usage signals liquidity being withdrawn from the system. Declining RRP suggests liquidity returning to markets.
Inflation & Economic Growth
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Tracks changes in consumer-level prices — the primary inflation gauge watched by central banks and markets.
Rising CPI strengthens the inflation hedge narrative for hard assets. Falling CPI reduces urgency to hold inflation protection.
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Tracks input prices at the producer level — a leading indicator of consumer inflation before it reaches retail prices.
Rising PPI suggests inflation is building upstream and may feed through to CPI. Falling PPI signals easing cost pressure.
Real GDP Growth
Measures national economic expansion or contraction — the broadest indicator of economic health.
Strong GDP typically favors traditional equities over alternative assets. Weak GDP may push capital into alternative stores of value.
Yields & Bond Markets
10-Year Treasury Yield
The benchmark long-term interest rate — the global risk-free rate against which all asset valuations are implicitly measured.
Rising yields make bonds more competitive, pressuring risk assets. Declining yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding risk assets.
2-Year Treasury Yield
Reflects near-term interest rate expectations set by Federal Reserve policy — the market's read on where rates are heading in the short term.
Rising 2Y yields signal tighter monetary policy expectations. Falling 2Y yields indicate easing expectations.
Yield Curve (10Y–2Y)
The spread between long-term and short-term Treasury yields — the most widely watched recession indicator in macro analysis.
Inversion (negative spread) historically precedes economic downturns and triggers risk-off behavior. Steepening signals improving growth expectations.
FX & Global Risk Indicators
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Measures USD strength against a basket of major currencies — the primary driver of global capital flow direction.
Strong dollar is broadly bearish for risk assets and commodities. Weak dollar supports capital flows into risk assets globally.
Volatility Index (VIX)
Measures expected equity market volatility — the market's real-time fear gauge.
Elevated VIX signals risk-off sentiment, often accompanied by broad asset selling. Low VIX indicates calm conditions and higher risk appetite.
Uncertainty Index
Tracks economic policy uncertainty — measuring how unpredictable the regulatory and fiscal environment is at any given time.
High uncertainty can drive demand for decentralized or hard assets as hedges. Low uncertainty favors traditional market participation.
Equities, Commodities & Crypto
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Tracks performance of the 500 largest U.S. companies — the primary barometer of U.S. equity market health and global risk appetite.
Rising SPX signals risk-on conditions broadly supportive of other risk assets. Falling SPX typically pressures correlated markets.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)
Tech-heavy index representing the highest-beta segment of U.S. equities — closely correlated with high-growth and speculative asset classes.
Strong Nasdaq performance tends to align with bullish trends in risk assets. Weakness in NDX often leads broader risk-off rotation.
Gold Price (XAU/USD)
The traditional safe-haven and inflation hedge — and the primary competing store-of-value narrative to Bitcoin.
Rising gold may reflect macro conditions that also support Bitcoin. Declining gold in a risk-on environment may redirect flows to higher-beta assets.
Crude Oil Price (WTI)
Reflects energy market dynamics and global economic demand — a leading indicator of inflationary pressure and industrial activity.
Rising oil supports inflation narratives and can reinforce hard asset demand. Falling oil may signal weakening demand and reduced risk appetite.
Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD)
The primary barometer of crypto market sentiment — tracked alongside macro indicators to assess how digital assets are responding to the broader environment.
Rising BTC alongside supportive macro conditions confirms risk-on alignment. Divergence between BTC and macro signals warrants extra caution.