6: Conclusion

The conclusion attempts to give a statistical answer to the Problem.

Answer the question(s) posed in the Problem section. Remember to answer in context (linking to the scenario).

Example: Scenario 1

From this simulation, the probability of three or more children in a group of six all wanting to use the swings is 13/50 = 0.26 = 26%.

The mean number of children wanting to use the swings (from a group of six) is 87 / 50 = 1.74 children.

There is randomness in the scenarios that we are simulating, so there will be uncertainty in the results of every simulation.

This is why, when a group of students in a class do a simulation, everyone can come up with a different answer to the same Problem.

The more trials in a simulation, the more accurate we can expect it might be; which is why a small simulation is not a good idea.

Every simulation should have an acknowledgement of this uncertainty, something like the paragraph below. This must be more than just a generic statement; it should be linked to the scenario.

Scenario 1

The results of my simulation of groups of six children using a playground should give a reasonable answer to my statistical question about the probability of three or more children wanting to use the swings. I would expect another simulation to give a similar answer to this question about the playground, but if I wanted to be sure I would conduct a larger simulation.

The probability of rare events is harder to simulate accurately with small simulations, so it is hard to be certain of an accurate 50-trial simulation with a 'successful' event probability less than 10%. Ideally, we would want a larger simulation (if time permits).