5: Assumptions

1: Fixed Probabilities

The design of our tool requires the probability of each outcome to be fixed. This means it cannot take into account variations between individuals or variations over time.

For example, consider Scenario 1. The probability of children using the different equipment might depend on their age. Younger children might have different preferences to older children. This makes age a confounding variable.

The probabilities might also chance depending on the whether (children might use the slides less if it is wet, and more when it is dry). This would mean that the probability of success (3 children choosing the swings) would be different, depending on the whether.

2: Independent Events

The design of our simulation considers each of the tools in a trial in isolation. The outcomes of the earlier tools do not affect what happens to the later tools. This might not be realistic in the scenario.

For example, consider Scenario 1. If a child saw that there were other children on the climbing net, they may want to do that too (increasing the probability of the next child choosing the climbing net). Conversely, if both of the swings were in use, a child might choose something else (decreasing the probability of the next child choosing the swings). Both of these would decrease the probability of three children choosing the swings, compared to the simulation with independent events.

3: Simplifications

The design of our simulation has fixed details, such as the definition of success and the stop condition. There might be real-world circumstances when the scenario would stop sooner, run for longer, or deviate from the simulation in some other way.

For example, consider Scenario 1. The entire simulation considers the preferences of 6 children, but it is possible that a different number of children could be at the park at the same time. Some parents might encourage their children to all play together, which would make it more likely to have a group all wanting to use the swings.