Would those who have died WITH COVID-19 have died anyway? WHY ARE LESS PEOPLE DYING THIS YEAR THAN LAST?

Why are FEWER PEOPLE DYING in these same months this year than last year, before coronavirus struck? The media have become fond of pushing very alarming figures into our faces - and linking those figures to a blame game. But how real are those figures?

Are MORE people dying - or is it just that a number of people dying have Corona Virus among other conditions? There is no doubt that hospitals are making it clear that people are dying of accidents and illnesses, as they always have. 600,000 per year in the UK.

BUT, those who have died who turn out to have the Corona Virus among their conditions are being INCLUDED in Corona deaths figures. Which is quite different from them having died of the virus as is being presented.

Here is a May BBC article on this subject: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654.

There seems one quite 'simplz' way to know the actual effect of CoronaVirus upon (the UK) England & Wales - by a study of the number of deaths occurring that, statistically, would not have occurred had there been no virus.

This is done by comparing the number of deaths each month (using week numbers) this year, with the same weeks/month last year, and other years before the virus.

AT THE START:

The pandemic of 'severe acute respiratory syndrome CoronaVirus 2' - which causes the 'coronavirus disease 2019 - and so is called COVID-19, spread to the United Kingdom in early 2020. The first cases were identified in late January 2020, and transmission within the UK of 15 cases was confirmed in late February 2020.

On 5th March the first death where the deceased had COVID-19.

As of 9th May, the overall death toll for the UK has passed 36,500 people, with confirmed infection, who have died.

So does that mean that MORE people are dying every day, week, month than (say) last year - before the virus arrived?

A simplz test is to compare how many MORE people die each month, following the first Corona Virus death in March 2020 - than died in the same month in 2019.

In Jan-2019 - 53,910 people died, in Feb-19 - 45,796, in Mar-19 - 43,946, Apr-19 - 44,123, May-19 - 44,388, Jun-19 - 38,606, Jul-19 - 42,305, Aug-19 - 38,843, Sep-19 - 40,012, Oct-19 - 46,240, Nov-19 - 45,219, Dec-19 - 47,469

FEBRUARY COMPARISON:

The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in February 2020 was 43,653. This was a decrease of 2,143 deaths in comparison with the same month in 2019. But it was early days. By February 29th 2020 there were 15 known cases of COVID-19 and no known deaths in the UK. On 5th March came the first death where the deceased had COVID-19.

MARCH COMPARISON:

Coronavirus took off in the UK in March. The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in March 2020 (weeks 10-13) was 43,700 - BUT - 43,946 had died in March 2019. A decrease of 246 in 2020 over 2019! England and Wales deaths for week ending 6 March 2020 (Week 10) - 10,895, for week ending 13 March 2020 (Week 11) - 11,019, for week ending 20 March 2020 (Week 12) - 10,645, for week ending 27 March 2020 (Week 13) - 11,141. Total 43,700.

We have to assume that April will see a different position - because that has been the month of the virus in the UK peaking - fingers crossed! But there has been plenty of seeming hype, about and during, the period above. Lies, dam lies and statistics and all that.

WATCH THIS SPACE - and while you are at it - stay safe. <11 May 2020>