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Las Elecciones se Deciden en la Ultima Semana (Elections are decided in the last week); an old axiom passed down from my longtime politically involved family—this small sentence presents a wholesale explanation of the State of Puerto Rican Politics on this final weekend before the election.
Heading into this race, the PPD seemed on death's door, barely competitive with their strongest candidate (Pablo José Hernández Rivera), forced to only run 4 at-large candidates (instead of the usual 6), set to lose the Senate, the plurality in the house, and potentially a mayority of Mayoralties.
While not much has changed on the legislative front (except my confidence in the PNP winning back a plurality the house & majority in the senate crashing in recent days unless they can recover momentum), the PPD is once showing signs of life—with Pablo José on the cusp of being elected Resident Commissioner, the Party being favored in a majority of Mayoralties, and having a fighting a chance in the legislature; with the collapse of the Governorship being a major black mark on the party (and potentially? something that could make these signs of life but a mirage)
Since I last updated the race on October 12, We have had a complete upending of the race, now with the El Nuevo día poll out the Governor average stands as such:
(PNP) Jenniffer González: 35% (+7%)
(PIP) Juan Dalmau: 28%
(PPD) Jesús Manuel Ortíz: 19%
(PD) Javier Jímenez: 9%
In recent weeks, we have had two polls showing González up by 2% over Juan Dalmau, one by LitDataPR, and another from Gaither; and as a consequence the potential for a Dalmau win has become a real posibility. However, through la Consultoría Académica e Investigación Social (via Prof. Jorge Benítez, who has also done MVC internals) and El Nuevo Día (independent of any campaigns), a comfortable Jenniffer González lead has asserted itself, with both of them showing her leading Juan Dalmau by 8%
This upending can be ascribed to a few things:
1) the October surprise wherein wife of PIP candidate Juan Dalmau got a cerebral Brain Hemorrhage; forcing Dalmau off of the campaign trail for 2 weeks in the final stretch, coming back Sunday the 27th.
2) Occurred before this, but a conspiracy theory—promoted by the Founder of Proyecto Dignidad César Vázquez Muñiz—over Jenniffer's pregnancy. Prompting the Resident Commissioner to post a video of her while she was undergoing a cesarian section. Which he later apologized for (and González accepted)
3) The ongoing Collapse of PPD Candidate Jesús Manuel Ortiz's gubernatorial campaign, prompting some senior Soberanistas to jump ship and endorse Juan Dalmau to stop Jenniffer González Colón. Most prominently Eudaldo Baéz Galíb and the disaffiliated Carmen Yulín Cruz Soto. Prompting a major damage control campaign from Jesus Manuel
4) related to 3, but Longtime PPD ally Nydia Vélazquez (alongside AOC, though her endorsement doesn't carry as much weight as Nydia's—whom was the last head of the PR Migration office, appointed by Rafael Hernández Colón himself) Endorsing Alianza. However, it should be noted that outside of the Gov race, this endorsement seems to have had limited effect in the polling—specifically, with Anna Irma Rivera Lassén not appearing to grow from it.
5) Refusing to attend the final Debate, where Dalmau would not attend because his wife was hospitalized, and having it asked for it to be canceled—despite denying it
6) and the most important one, the comment made by the "comedian" Tony Hinchcliff at Republican Former President Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden Rally, wherein he said "There is literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now; I believe it's called Puerto Rico". These comments sparked a firestorm of condemnation going so far as to reach RNC Delegate and PRGOP chair Ángel Cintrón, who said that he would not vote for Donald Trump on the island's straw poll if he did not apologize, and Jenniffer González condemning the remarks, but maintaining her support for Trump despite questions from the media as to why she maintains said suport over those heinous comments
Whatever the effect, this continuous bad news cycle for Jenniffer González has weakened her from her 12% lead to a 7% lead in the average, with the Hinchcliff comments prompting momentum against her.
However, the PNP, in an attempt to regain momentum is pouncing on a fresh breaking Alianza scandal, where one of their high ranking communications directors—deeply involved with (MVC) Rosa Seguí's San Juan I senate campaign—was accused of sexual harrasment, with the party doing nothing. Harkening this back to Joel Vázquez's scandal a few months back in an attempt to stop their rise.
However, there's a decent chance this backfires as the victim appealed for privacy, and emphasized that Juan Dalmau, Manuel Natal y Joel Vázquez were not involved at all; maintaining her support for Alianza.
This is on top of them attacking Juan Dalmau on seeking to cut federal funding for Puerto Rico in pursuit of independence, an attack some internal PNP polling I have personally seen find to be the most effective attack against Dalmau; even if it has yet to bear Fruit.
for his part, Dalmau has eschewed supporting independence in favor of a "change" and "anti-corruption" platform
Overall, JGo's lead has collapsed to half what it started as, in part because she hasn't responded to any of these events well (and is mostly campaigning behind her gargantuan cash advantage—with Bad Bunny sponsoring a large amount of attack ads and billboards) but despite this, she still leads. Leading just barely outside of the normal 4-6% polling error Puerto Rico suffered in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016 (of which the highest was the PPD being overestimated by 6% in 2008—importantly, I should note that all were El Nuevo Día poll errors as that's all we have), and as such the governorship moves to Lean PNP, down from Likely PNP in October.
Insofar as this means anything, Jenniffer González is modestly favored to win, however, an upset on behalf of (PIP) Juan Dalmau is not out of the question—and is now a very realistic possibility, even if—as of writing—it's not the most likely possibility.
Like the Govenrorship, PNP chances in the Resident Commishionership have collapsed, placing them in their worst position in this contest in over 20 years, with the PPD candidate Pablo José Hernandez leading in the combined average of the polling by 2%.
Current Average:
(PPD) Hernández: 34% (+2%)
(PNP) Villafañe: 32%
(MVC) Lassén: 14%
(PD) Ramírez: 7%
Due to Jenniffer González's collapsing chances, the debates, and Pablo José's strong campaign, the latter turned a 7% (34-27%) deficit in mid-October into a 2% (34-32%) lead, and now stands favored to become the first PPD Resident Commissioner in 20 years.
Here, the contours of the race Fundamentally boil down to Pablo José Hernández's strengths as a candidate. Again, Performing well in debates, and maintaining a significant chunk of (PIP) Juan Dalmau voters throughout the cycle, such as can be seen in the October, and November END polls
Representative of all of this, and Pablo José's broader effort to appeal to former PPD's, he released what is likely the strongest ad of the cycle, a rehash of the PPD's oldest (and strongest) Jingle: El Hymno de Vergüenza
Used since literally the beginning of the party, El Hymno de Vergüenza is the symbol of what the PPD is (or was). and Pablo José's use of it here is a callback to the glory days of the PPD, and an active call of support for him in order to stop the PNP—a poignant message to Dalmau supporters, especially with Anna Irma Rivera Lassén Polling in the mid Teens (and despite the Nydia Vélazquez endorsement of Anna Irma).
I should note that the effect of the Hinchcliff comments is less a direct consequence to Villafañe—who endorsed Kamala Harris—than it is something that is harming him indirectly via Jenniffer González.
The underlying result being the same, but out of Villafañe's control.
It should be noted that in both 2012, 2016 and 2020 that the Resident Commissioner's race errored to be closer, mostly because of the straight party vote, so this could present an issue for Pablo José to win as Jesus Manuel Ortiz's campaign is collapsing. However, this is unlikely to Help Anna Irma Rivera Lassen as she doesn't share a straight ticket option with Juan Dalmau, and will likely help the PIP's paper candidate in that race have a strong showing.
Despite this, Polls were very on point for the RC race in 2020, only overestimating JGo by 3%—and while Pablo Jose leads by much less than JGo did at this point in 2020, most observers agree that he has the momentum. Something which combines with Alianza's campaign to increase the mixed vote (and the mixed vote increasing in 2020) to prompt an increased likelihood that Pablo José Hernández wins, especially when compared to 2016/2012. Even if the straight Party vote has a big potential to destroy Hernández's election chances.
I would feel most comfortable leaving this race as the truest of tossups, but, since I am obligated to pick a winner, I'd say that as of today—eliminating tossups—the race is Lean PPD, with momentum carrying Hernández to a narrow victory.
There's not much to say about the Presidential contest. Kamala Harris, following the Tony Hinchcliff Coments, is going to win the straw poll (Likely Dem, again: out of lack of precedent) in a landslide, with the bigger question being "does she get a plurality, or Majority of the vote in Puerto Rico".
In any case polling on election eve, with all polls conducted of this presidential straw poll throughout the year, shows that Kamala leads Trump by 25%, attaining 48% of the vote to Trump's 23% with 29% of the vote either undecided or Abstaining.
As a result of this, she is going to win the straw poll in Puerto Rico, there is little doubt about that; and as a consequence, it will give us our first true Test of Puerto Rico's partisanship on these 2024 elections.
Moving onto Status, unlike last time where he only had one question testing the question that will be asked on the plebiscite, now we have four, and a decent average to go along with. Here, it shows:
Plebiscite Ballot:
Statehood: 43% (+23%)
Free Association: 20%
None/Blank: 17%
Independence: 14%
The underlying result indicates a comfortable victory for statehood on the question itself, with the likelihood that (after accounting for undecideds) it gets 46% of the vote with a total of 18% abstaining. Technically a decrease from 2020's 52% of the vote for Statehood, but within the historical tendency for the status preference to get ~45-47% of the vote most of the time.
While those numbers are a problem for lobbying for statehood in congress, (again, suggesting that it will get 46% of all votes cast when all is said and done) campaining for the Plebiscite ballot has mostly been done by the Super Pacs who have spent a combined $1.4 Million promoting Statehood. One such example of these campaigns can be seen by the PAC ERAELA Inc. Linked below:
Overall, considering the average of the polling, it is unlikely that Statehood falls under 50% of the votes cast in the plebiscite (the Current average, ignoring those who won't vote or are undecided, sees it getting 56%, to Free Association's 26% and Independence's 19%) but it is likely that it won't get a majority of votes cast. However, due to the increase in support in El Nuevo Día's November Poll compared to it's October poll, as well as it's past maority support it is still possible; as a consequence while Statehood will get the most votes (Safe Statehood) and it will likely get a majority in the question (Likely Majority), it is also only a slight underdog to get a plurality over total ballots cast in the governor's race (Lean Plurality). And once more, I should note that if it gets a majority of votes cast in the Governor's election, then that would constitute the biggest win for Statehood in Puerto Rico's history, eclipsing the 2020 Yes/No Referendum in significance.
We are flying Partly blind in the San Juan Mayoral race, here, we have only had one Poll since October 22nd, The LitDataPR SJ Tracking Poll (which showed slight momentum for the MVC's Manuel Natal, within the poll's Margin of Error. However, the data stands as such:
Average:
(PNP) Miguel Romero: 37% (+5%)
(MVC) Manuel Natal: 32%
(PPD) Terestella González: 13%
(PD) Maidalys Irizarry: 4%
(I) José "Joe" Vargas: 1%
While Romero has a small advantage, Polling in San Juan's mayoral race has historically been all over the place. While Yulín was underestimated by 3% in El Nuevo Día in their November 2016 Poll, in their October Poll, she was overestimated by 12%. Likewise, she was underestimated by 11% in the October 2012, El Nuevo Día Poll, and infamously, Manuel Natal was underestimated by 22% in El Nuevo Día's September Poll (released in October)
Further, El Vocero/Gaither's 2020 Poll underestimated Natal by 10%, while overestimating now-Mayor Miguel Romero by 1% (an error of 11%). Herein, while Romero doesn't clear the ENDI 2020 Error, he does clear the Gaither Error, something that when combined with two other pollsters showing him ahead (though one is a PNP internal), and only one (MVC's internal Pollster) shows Manuel Natal ahead by 1% places Miguel Romero as a slight favorite for Reelection. As such, while I can't rule out the possibility of another error, under a preponderance of caution and deference to the Data, I lable the San Juan Mayoralty as Lean PNP
I should note here, that the Race for Mayor of San Juan has taken a major heat in the past month, here Manuel Natal has attacked Romero over the Public Order Code not raising police salaries enough, and over the PNP's increase of electoral recusals. By contrast, Miguel Romero has criticized Manuel Natal over his failure in managing San Juan's head start program under Carmen Yulín Cruz's Administration as well as tying him to the—by it's end (in March she registered a 62-15% negative rating, islandwide)—unpopular Carmen Yulín Cruz Administration.
There's also the recent issue of Flooding in Santurce which Miguel Romero has tried to work on an Manuel Natal has hit him on.
Once More: I am deferring to the current data we have and placing the San Juan Mayoralty at Lean PNP, however, (as heading into today I had the race as a Tossup) I would not be shocked by a extremely close race, or even a Natal win; this is just the state of the race as the data we have highlights it.
Taking a look at the senate race, we have 5 shifts compared to October
Bayamón Seat 2: Likely PNP > Lean MVC (Gain)
Ponce V Seat 1: Lean PNP > Lean PPD
Ponce V Seat 2: Tossup > Lean PPD
Guayama VI Seat 1: Lean PPD > Lean PNP (Gain)
Humacao VII Seat 2: Tossup > Lean PPD
Going from first to last, most of these results have understandable reasons
Bayamón II: Dalmau's surge brings Betitito, a stronger candidate in this seat due to his father (the PNP Toa Baja mayor) into ever so slight favorite status, as Dalmau likely only loses this seat narrowly (2-4%), or wins it if he gets close, before he wins islandwide. If Betitito Márquez doesn't win, as could occur if JGo wins by closer to 8%, then that would likely mark an overall disappointing night for Alianza, unless (once again) Natal wins in San Juan, or they sweep both of the San Juan I territorial Senate districts.
Ponce V: Looking at primary results, the Full Master Services poll in the city of Ponce that had the JMO losing less support than on the island level, and anecdotal data that has the PPD strongest in Ponce, they are small favorites now to hold both seats.
Guayama VI: There has been a chat scandal for one of the PPD Incumbents—Héctor Santiago—broken by La Comay—which (combining with some intra party tension in the PPD) may cause them to lose one of the seats. Elected incumbent Albert Torres Berríos remains a slight favorite though as this has been one of the most PPD seats in the last decade
Humacao VII: as with Ponce, I have heard anecdotal reports (all I have for this) that the Caguas PPD, comprising a lot of (PIP) Dalmau voters, has strengthened and is strongly supporting Nina Valedón for Senate. combined with the Collapse in PNP fortunes, I am predicting this close seat goes to the PPD, retaining the divided Humacao Senate district for a third consecutive term.
As of now, I only believe the PNP gets 13 seats, with 1nyting from 16-10 seats being probable. As such, it is likely, though not guaranteed, that former Senate President Thomas Rivera Schatz becomes senate president again. We'll have to wait for votes to be counted to see what happens.
Lastly, we come to the House of Representatives, where we have a slieu of ratings changes
HD-01: Likely PNP > Lean PNP
HD-09: Likely PNP > Lean PNP
HD-10: Tossup > Lean PPD
HD-11: Likely PPD > Lean PPD
HD-21: Lean PNP > Lean PPD
HD-24: Tossup > Lean PPD
HD-31: Tossup > Lean PPD
HD-35: Lean PPD > Likely PPD
HD-37: Likely PNP > Lean PNP
HD-38: Likely PNP > Lean PNP
HD-01: Out of an abundance of caution, strong Alianza numbers in 2020, and alleged tension between incumbent Eddie Charbonier and PNP San Juan mayor Miguel Romero HD-01 shifts to lean PNP. Indicating it's competitive, and on potential upset watch
HD-09: A Primary with a new Candidate, with traditionally PPD Toa Alta controling the seats moreso than the more PPD section of Bayamón. While the PNP is favored to hold this seat, with their decreasing odds, this seat is now at the cusp of competitiveness (the PPD haven't won this seat since 1984)
HD-10: the PNP picked the candidate who lost in 2020: a partial Rematch with an MVC candidate where Betitito will likely win this seat, it is possible that MVC comes for an upset. But, PNP voters heading to Alianza is the biggest concern here due to the MVC campaign which combined with the PNP picking the 2020 loser makes the PPD modest favorites.
HD-11: Alianza will do well, and while the incumbent is the current senator for Arecibo III, the Doraro Primary between Rafael "Tatito" Hernandez and Carlitos López, may hurt the PPD here—upset watch
HD-21: Per anectdata, the PPD has strengthened in the Ponce region, and they had a strong showing in the primary results. this may not translate, but this is also a seat the PNP has never won so I am leaning towards caution.
HD-24: The PPD has strengthened in the Ponce region, with the MVC collapsing in Ponce, thereby placing the PPD in a good position to hold HD-24.
HD-31: Allegedly, this three way race between Incumbent (PPD) Jesus Santa Rodriguez, (PNP) Vimarie Peña Dávila and (PIP) Raúl Tirado has strengthened for the PPD due to Caguas Mayor (PPD) William Miranda Torres strengthening from 2020. This will be one of the most interesting races in Puerto Rico, and we will see how it goes but for now: Lean PPD
HD-35: PPD has allegedly strengthened in Humacao, and Sol Higgins—a conservative—has made overtures to keep the PD from splitting too much of her votes. That combined with the PPD likely winning 2/3 mayoralties in her seat puts her in a strong spot to win.
HD-37: There was a very close fought primary in this seat where the PPD holds 2/3 Mayoralties with strong incumbent mayors. Combined with Jenniffer's apparent collapse, this seat may become interesting with the PPD winning the seat that contains Loíza for the first time since 1988.
HD-38: Here, due to the incredibly competitive nature of the seat—has voted for the statewide winner since 1992—combined with potential Dalmau voters crossing over to the PIP and Jenniffer's worsening position I've downgraded this to leans PNP. However, not between all three candidates, but between the PNP and the PPD.
While the PNP is favored to gain a plurality, their current statewide condition makes it so that they're likely only going to gain seats that they have held—in some for or another—all but continuously since 2004 that they lost in 2020. Those being HD-18, 22, 26, and 28. With the MVC favored to Flip HD-2 & 3, and PIP HD-04 from the PNP (3 & 4) and PPD/IND (2).
This in turn would be a disappointing night for both the PNP and PPD, necessitating a coalition with smaller parties (or each other) to govern the house.
Overall, these elections have become some that are deeply unprecedented and turbulant in Puerto Rico's history, begining with the defeat of an incumbent by a member of their own party and potentially ending with the second Pro-Independence general election win in PR's history (the first being in 1940), and first elected Pro-Independence governor.
The results will be interesting to analyze, and I will once we have them, but for now, the above is how things stand in The Island of enchantment: Puerto Rico
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