Abstract: Does increased exposure to forced migration affect violent crime rates in developing host countries? To answer this question we exploit the unprecedented inflow of Venezuelans to Brazil. Contrary to fears propagated by the anti-immigration rhetoric, our two-stage least squares estimates reveal that the sudden influx of refugees did not affect violent crime in which natives were victimized. In fact, our results suggest that forced migration only increased violent crime involving Venezuelan victims. Victimization of migrants seems to have increased at a slower pace than their presence in the host country. Yet, it was concentrated among young males between the ages of 15 and 39 living in the border region of Brazil with Venezuela. Evaluating the causal impacts of forced migration in a developing context is crucial to providing governments and international agencies with rigorous evidence to support policy decisions. In absence of the latter, public perception can play a key role as host populations may pressure authorities for anti-immigration policies based solely on perceptions. Moreover, violence hinders migration’s documented long-term benefits by imposing high economic and social costs.

Media coverage: Blog Impacto (FGV)

Abstract: Climate change risk perceptions are subjective constructs that individuals use to interpret the potential harms of climate change and influence their engagement in mitigation and adaptation efforts. While research in high-income Western countries has identified cognitive processes, socio-cultural factors, and political ideology as key predictors of climate risk perceptions, their applicability to low- and middle-income regions remains uncertain. This study uses a cross-national survey conducted in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Mexico (N = 5338) to assess climate risk perceptions in Latin America. We show that emotional responses, especially worry and perceived vulnerability to extreme weather, are the strongest predictors. In contrast, political ideology and socio-demographic factors exhibit weak and inconsistent associations, diverging from patterns observed in high-income countries. These findings highlight that climate change is not perceived as a politically divisive issue in the region, suggesting opportunities for cross-party collaboration on climate initiatives. Understanding these unique drivers in regions with emerging economies is crucial for developing effective, tailored risk communication strategies.

Abstract: We study how visa restrictions imposed by a transit country affect irregular migration to a final destination and legal tourism to itself. In 2021, Mexico reintroduced a tourist visa requirement for Brazilians, a nationality that had been a major source of both irregular migration to the United States and international tourists to Mexico. Using a difference-in-differences design, we compare Brazilians to unaffected nationalities in administrative data on U.S. border encounters and Mexican airport arrivals. The policy reduced Brazilian encounters at the U.S.–Mexico border by more than 75 percent, with larger declines among women and older individuals and a shift toward riskier crossing sectors. At the same time, Brazilian tourist arrivals to Mexico fell by nearly 50 percent, or about 170,000 visitors annually, with losses concentrated among younger travelers and women. Even under the extreme assumption that every irregular migrant first entered Mexico as a tourist, the contraction in genuine tourism remains of similar magnitude. The results show that transit-country visa policies can substantially reduce irregular migration, but only at the cost of large losses in legal mobility and tourism revenues.

Funding: Institute for Humane Studies (grant no. IHS019318)
Presentations: IHS Migration & Citizen Workshop (Rice University), APPAM's 47th Annual Fall Research Conference (upcoming)

Abstract: We study the impact of a large and sudden inflow of refugees on public health and local public finances in Brazil. Exploiting cross-municipality variation in exposure to Venezuelan refugees and using distance to the country's only official border crossing with Venezuela as an instrument, we find that a one–percentage–point increase in the refugee share raises mortality by 4.2 percent and infant mortality by up to 9 percent. The inflow increases hospital congestion and preventable admissions, while healthcare spending lags behind rising demand. Municipalities bear most of the costs, diverting funds from education to finance the additional burden. These patterns reflect the poor health status of arriving refugees and the limited fiscal capacity of affected municipalities. Overall, our findings highlight the need for stronger national support to help decentralized health systems absorb large and geographically concentrated migration shocks.

Presentations: Graduate Research Workshop (Duke University), PPGE Seminar (UCB), APPAM's 47th Annual Fall Research Conference (upcoming)

Abstract: Lacking punitive measures to prevent defection from international environmental cooperation, the Paris Agreement relies on effective peer pressure to ensure compliance. Scholars have shown that foreign climate shaming drives domestic public support for compliance in Western democracies, while rhetorical efforts by incumbents to counteract such criticism prove largely ineffective. The present study extends the analysis to the Global South, a region essential to the success of the Paris Agreement due to its growing emissions and disproportionate vulnerability to climate change. Through survey experiments in Brazil, we find that foreign climate shaming decreases public support for leaders who fail to comply with climate commitments, but targeted government counter-rhetoric justifying noncompliance completely eliminates this effect. Our results show that incumbents can eliminate the audience costs of noncompliance by deploying four rhetorical strategies common in Global South environmental diplomacy: historical responsibilities, reciprocity as effectiveness, reciprocity as self-interest, and defiance. The effects prove robust across demographic and political subgroups, suggesting that climate shaming operates less uniformly as a compliance mechanism than existing scholarship implies. These findings reveal fundamental asymmetries in international pressure dynamics across different political contexts, with important implications for the design of global environmental governance.

Abstract: Despite growing recognition of its importance for human capital, access to mental healthcare remains limited. In this paper, we examine whether expanding community-based mental health services improves educational outcomes. We study a nationwide mental health reform in Brazil, which replaced hospital-based care with community-based Psychosocial Care Centers (CAPS). To identify the causal effect, we exploit the staggered rollout of these units over the last two decades. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the expansion of CAPS leads to persistent reductions in dropout rates, improvements in approval rates, and declines in age–grade distortion, with effects particularly pronounced among high school students. Our findings highlight the role of mental healthcare provision in supporting human capital accumulation through educational gains.

Presentations: Graduate Research Workshop (Duke University)