Abstract: Does increased exposure to forced migration affect violent crime rates in developing host countries? To answer this question we exploit the unprecedented inflow of Venezuelans to Brazil. Contrary to fears propagated by the anti-immigration rhetoric, our two-stage least squares estimates reveal that the sudden influx of refugees did not affect violent crime in which natives were victimized. In fact, our results suggest that forced migration only increased violent crime involving Venezuelan victims. Victimization of migrants seems to have increased at a slower pace than their presence in the host country. Yet, it was concentrated among young males between the ages of 15 and 39 living in the border region of Brazil with Venezuela. Evaluating the causal impacts of forced migration in a developing context is crucial to providing governments and international agencies with rigorous evidence to support policy decisions. In absence of the latter, public perception can play a key role as host populations may pressure authorities for anti-immigration policies based solely on perceptions. Moreover, violence hinders migration’s documented long-term benefits by imposing high economic and social costs.

Abstract: Climate change risk perceptions are subjective constructs that individuals use to interpret the potential harms of climate change and influence their engagement in mitigation and adaptation efforts. While research in high-income Western countries has identified cognitive processes, socio-cultural factors, and political ideology as key predictors of climate risk perceptions, their applicability to low- and middle-income regions remains uncertain. This study uses a cross-national survey conducted in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Mexico (N = 5338) to assess climate risk perceptions in Latin America. We show that emotional responses, especially worry and perceived vulnerability to extreme weather, are the strongest predictors. In contrast, political ideology and socio-demographic factors exhibit weak and inconsistent associations, diverging from patterns observed in high-income countries. These findings highlight that climate change is not perceived as a politically divisive issue in the region, suggesting opportunities for cross-party collaboration on climate initiatives. Understanding these unique drivers in regions with emerging economies is crucial for developing effective, tailored risk communication strategies.

Abstract: Lacking punitive measures to prevent defection from international environmental cooperation, the Paris Agreement relies on effective peer pressure to ensure compliance. Scholars have shown that foreign climate shaming drives domestic public support for compliance in Western democracies, while rhetorical efforts by incumbents to counteract such criticism prove largely ineffective. The present study extends the analysis to the Global South, a region essential to the success of the Paris Agreement due to its growing emissions and disproportionate vulnerability to climate change. Through survey experiments in Brazil, we find that foreign climate shaming decreases public support for leaders who fail to comply with climate commitments, but targeted government counter-rhetoric justifying noncompliance completely eliminates this effect. Our results show that incumbents can eliminate the audience costs of noncompliance by deploying four rhetorical strategies common in Global South environmental diplomacy: historical responsibilities, reciprocity as effectiveness, reciprocity as self-interest, and defiance. The effects prove robust across demographic and political subgroups, suggesting that climate shaming operates less uniformly as a compliance mechanism than existing scholarship implies. These findings reveal fundamental asymmetries in international pressure dynamics across different political contexts, with important implications for the design of global environmental governance.

Abstract:  This paper examines the effect of forced migration on the host country’s public health system. Specifically, we analyze how the large and sudden inflow of Venezuelan refugees impacts healthcare spending in Brazilian municipalities exposed to this shock. For identification, we exploit geographic variation in exposure to Venezuelan refugees and use the distance to the border city of Pacaraima as an instrument. The results indicate that while healthcare spending rises in affected municipalities, it fails to keep up with the growing demand driven by the increase in population size. Furthermore, we find that, amid limited financial support from federal and state governments, affected municipalities had to absorb most of the fiscal burden using their own resources. Our findings contribute to the broader debate on the fiscal impacts of migration in developing host countries by showing how the financial burden of public service provision can fall disproportionately on local governments. They also highlight the potential limitations of decentralized healthcare systems in responding to large-scale refugee inflows.

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of Mexico’s recent imposition of visa requirements on travelers from Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil on both tourism inflows and irregular border crossings into the United States. The policy was introduced in response to rising numbers of migrants transiting through Mexico to reach the U.S.-Mexico border, and it aimed to better regulate entries from countries associated with increased migration flows. Using variation in the timing and nationality-specific rollout of the policy, we estimate its effects on two outcomes: (i) short-term tourism to Mexico and (ii) U.S. Border Patrol encounters at the southern border. Preliminary results show that the policy significantly reduced travel from Brazil, including tourism. Correspondingly, encounters of Brazilian nationals at the U.S.-Mexico border declined. In contrast, we find no measurable impact on Ecuadorian encounters. Strikingly, encounters involving Venezuelans increased following the policy, likely reflecting the broader humanitarian crisis and limited alternatives for legal mobility. Our findings point to heterogeneous effects of migration enforcement policies, particularly when applied to countries facing distinct economic and political conditions. These results suggest that visa restrictions may deter some flows while displacing others, highlighting the need for more differentiated policy approaches.

Abstract: coming soon.

Abstract: States increasingly deploy naming-and-shaming tactics to drive third-party compliance with international environmental norms. This is despite scholarly research showing that in related fields such as human rights foreign criticism can backfire if it hits a nerve among ordinary citizens in the target state. In this paper, we experimentally explore public defiance against foreign climate shaming for the first time. Defiance occurs when domestic audiences support policies that explicitly challenge foreign critics by insisting on non-compliant behavior. We make two novel contributions by fielding a conjoint experiment to a representative sample in Brazil, a recurrent target of international climate criticism. First, we empirically establish defiance against critical cues in the climate sphere. Second, we leverage experimental methods to provide micro-foundations for defiant behavior, specifying the factors that are more likely to trigger such a response. Our results show domestic audiences to be more prone to defy foreign climate shaming when the source of the criticism is perceived to be hypocritical, when the critical message is couched in liberal-cosmopolitan rather than sovereigntist-parochial language, and when critics threaten to impose costlier measures (the threat of the use of force triggers defiance more powerfully than trade sanctions or diplomatic pressure). These effects are moderated by political orientation, with conservative and Right-wing members of the public more easily mobilized to defy international shaming than their progressive and Left-wing co-nationals. Together, these findings carry important implications for theories of foreign shaming and the practice of diplomacy.