Abstract: Does increased exposure to forced migration affect violent crime rates in developing host countries? To answer this question we exploit the unprecedented inflow of Venezuelans to Brazil. Contrary to fears propagated by the anti-immigration rhetoric, our two-stage least squares estimates reveal that the sudden influx of refugees did not affect violent crime in which natives were victimized. In fact, our results suggest that forced migration only increased violent crime involving Venezuelan victims. Victimization of migrants seems to have increased at a slower pace than their presence in the host country. Yet, it was concentrated among young males between the ages of 15 and 39 living in the border region of Brazil with Venezuela. Evaluating the causal impacts of forced migration in a developing context is crucial to providing governments and international agencies with rigorous evidence to support policy decisions. In absence of the latter, public perception can play a key role as host populations may pressure authorities for anti-immigration policies based solely on perceptions. Moreover, violence hinders migration’s documented long-term benefits by imposing high economic and social costs.

Abstract: Climate change risk perceptions are subjective constructs that individuals use to interpret the potential harms of climate change and influence their engagement in mitigation and adaptation efforts. While research in high-income Western countries has identified cognitive processes, socio-cultural factors, and political ideology as key predictors of climate risk perceptions, their applicability to low- and middle-income regions remains uncertain. This study uses a cross-national survey conducted in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Mexico (N = 5338) to assess climate risk perceptions in Latin America. We show that emotional responses, especially worry and perceived vulnerability to extreme weather, are the strongest predictors. In contrast, political ideology and socio-demographic factors exhibit weak and inconsistent associations, diverging from patterns observed in high-income countries. These findings highlight that climate change is not perceived as a politically divisive issue in the region, suggesting opportunities for cross-party collaboration on climate initiatives. Understanding these unique drivers in regions with emerging economies is crucial for developing effective, tailored risk communication strategies.

Abstract: We study how visa restrictions imposed by a transit country affect irregular migration to a final destination and legal tourism to itself. In 2021, Mexico reintroduced a tourist visa requirement for Brazilians, a nationality that had been a major source of both irregular migration to the United States and international tourists to Mexico. Using a difference-in-differences design, we compare Brazilians to unaffected nationalities in administrative data on U.S. border encounters and Mexican airport arrivals. The policy reduced Brazilian encounters at the U.S.–Mexico border by more than 75 percent, with larger declines among women and older individuals and a shift toward riskier crossing sectors. At the same time, Brazilian tourist arrivals to Mexico fell by nearly 50 percent, or about 170,000 visitors annually, with losses concentrated among younger travelers and women. Even under the extreme assumption that every irregular migrant first entered Mexico as a tourist, the contraction in genuine tourism remains of similar magnitude. The results show that transit-country visa policies can substantially reduce irregular migration, but only at the cost of large losses in legal mobility and tourism revenues.

Abstract:  This paper examines the effect of forced migration on the host country’s public health system. Specifically, we analyze how the large and sudden inflow of Venezuelan refugees impacts healthcare spending in Brazilian municipalities exposed to this shock. For identification, we exploit geographic variation in exposure to Venezuelan refugees and use the distance to the border city of Pacaraima as an instrument. The results indicate that while healthcare spending rises in affected municipalities, it fails to keep up with the growing demand driven by the increase in population size. Furthermore, we find that, amid limited financial support from federal and state governments, affected municipalities had to absorb most of the fiscal burden using their own resources. Our findings contribute to the broader debate on the fiscal impacts of migration in developing host countries by showing how the financial burden of public service provision can fall disproportionately on local governments. They also highlight the potential limitations of decentralized healthcare systems in responding to large-scale refugee inflows.

Abstract: Lacking punitive measures to prevent defection from international environmental cooperation, the Paris Agreement relies on effective peer pressure to ensure compliance. Scholars have shown that foreign climate shaming drives domestic public support for compliance in Western democracies, while rhetorical efforts by incumbents to counteract such criticism prove largely ineffective. The present study extends the analysis to the Global South, a region essential to the success of the Paris Agreement due to its growing emissions and disproportionate vulnerability to climate change. Through survey experiments in Brazil, we find that foreign climate shaming decreases public support for leaders who fail to comply with climate commitments, but targeted government counter-rhetoric justifying noncompliance completely eliminates this effect. Our results show that incumbents can eliminate the audience costs of noncompliance by deploying four rhetorical strategies common in Global South environmental diplomacy: historical responsibilities, reciprocity as effectiveness, reciprocity as self-interest, and defiance. The effects prove robust across demographic and political subgroups, suggesting that climate shaming operates less uniformly as a compliance mechanism than existing scholarship implies. These findings reveal fundamental asymmetries in international pressure dynamics across different political contexts, with important implications for the design of global environmental governance.

Abstract: coming soon.