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Karsa Nusa
Evan
Kajian dan Riset Kebijakan Ekonomi Nusa Tenggara Timur
Doi : (Under Review)
Abstract :
The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector constitutes the largest contributor to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) of East Nusa Tenggara Province, yet this contribution remains disproportionate to the level of community welfare due to the spatial fragmentation of the archipelagic region and the persistent pressure of productive land conversion. This study aims to identify regional connectivity and growth centers, predict landuse change up to 2046 through Business As Usual (BAU) and Sustainability scenarios, and integrate the analytical results into a WebGIS platform as a basis for formulating policy recommendations. The study employs a deductive method with a quantitative approach, combining Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) analysis based on Point of Interest and Nighttime Light (NTL) data, Origin-Destination (OD) analysis to measure movement patterns, and Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling to project land cover change, which is subsequently overlaid with protected area policies in accordance with the Spatial Plan (RTRW) of East Nusa Tenggara Province. The results indicate that the province's growth centers exhibit a multicentric pattern, comprising three main nodes, Kupang, West Manggarai, West Sumba and Southwest Sumba. The Sustainability scenario proved more effective in preserving primary sector land compared to the BAU scenario, with a primary sector land balance reaching 2,924,749.40 hectares by 2046, subsequently visualized through a WebGIS platform. These findings provide the basis for formulating downstreaming strategies and spatial planning policy recommendations to support the transformation of East Nusa Tenggara's primary sector into one that is productive, inclusive, and value added.
KEMISKINAN DI KABUPATEN KOTAWARINGIN TIMUR : POLA PERSEBARAN DAN VARIAN FAKTOR PENYEBAB
Jurnal Plano Madani
Evan, Doddy Aditya Iskandar
Volume 15 Nomor 2 (Oktober 2026)
Doi : (Soon)
Abstract :
Poverty represents one of the oldest and most persistent societal challenges, remaining difficult to resolve until today. In addressing poverty, spatial aspects have often been neglected, as evidenced by the uniform application of poverty alleviation programs across diverse contexts. Currently, East Kotawaringin Regency ranks first in Central Kalimantan Province in terms of the number of poor residents, reaching 30,328 individuals. However, there is still a lack of measurable information and analysis regarding the characteristics of poverty that constitute the specific challenges faced by this regency. Given this situation, it is necessary to conduct a study on the identification of poverty clusters in East Kotawaringin Regency, particularly examining the dominant patterns of land use within the established clusters. To achieve this, cluster analysis was employed using detailed data at the individual level, which were subsequently aggregated into spatial aspects at the village scale. The results of multicollinearity testing indicated that the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values for variables such as household size, sources of clean water, sources of lighting energy, sanitation facilities, number of bicycles, and household welfare status were below 0.05. Based on the cluster analysis, poverty in East Kotawaringin Regency can be categorized into three clusters. The first cluster represents low-level poverty characterized by limited access to basic facilities and sanitation, predominantly situated in large-scale plantation areas covering 214,070.08 hectares. The second cluster reflects moderate-level poverty with a high dependency ratio, primarily associated with dense forest areas totaling 445,093.85 hectares. The third cluster represents high-level poverty characterized by low welfare conditions, also dominated by dense forest land use spanning 78,661.08 hectares.
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