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Publications in Peer-Reviewed Journals
1. Public and private school grade inflations patterns in secondary education, accepted for publication in The B.E. Journal of Economics Analysis & Policy, 2025 , 25 (2), 305-342
(with S. L. DesJardins, R. Biscaia, C. Sá, and P. N. Teixeira)
2. Specialists or all-rounders: How best to select university students?, Journal of Human Capital, 2024, Volume 18, Number 2, 227 - 271
DOI: 10.1086/728086 ; Published in Golden Open Access
Media Briefing at RES [here]
For those who prefer listening, here’s an AI-generated podcast by NotebookLM that explains the paper in audio format: AI Podcast
3. Competition and diversification in higher education: Analysing impacts on access and equity in the case of Portugal, European Journal of Education, 2022, 57(2), 235-254
DOI: 10.1111/ejed.12501
(with P. N. Teixeira, R. Biscaia, and C. Sá)
4. Student selection and performance in higher education: admission exams vs. high school scores, Education Economics, 2020, 28:5, 437-454.
DOI: 10.1080/09645292.2020.1782846
(with A. B. Reis, C. Seabra, L. C. Nunes, and M. Alves)
Working Papers (submitted and R&R)
5. Clustered local average treatment effects: fields of study and academic student progress [Submitted]
(join with D. Nibbering and M. Oosterveen)
Abstract: Multiple unordered treatments with a binary instrument for each treatment are common in policy evaluation. This multiple treatment setting allows for different types of changes in treatment status that are non-compliant with the activated instrument. Therefore, instrumental variable (IV) methods have to rely on strong assumptions on the subjects' behavior to identify local average treatment effects (LATEs). This paper introduces a new IV strategy that identifies an interpretable weighted average of LATEs under relaxed assumptions, in the presence of clusters with similar treatments. The clustered LATEs allow for shifts across treatment clusters that are consistent with preference updating, but render IV estimation of individual LATEs biased. The clustered LATEs are estimated by standard IV methods, and we provide an algorithm that estimates the treatment clusters. We empirically analyze the effect of fields of study on academic student progress, and find violations of the LATE assumptions in line with preference updating, clusters with similar fields, treatment effect heterogeneity across students, and significant differences in student progress due to fields of study.
Working paper available at IZA Discussion Papers No. 15159 [here] and SSRN [here]
6. High school and exam scores: Does their predictive validity for academic performance vary with programme selectivity? [R&R]
(join with C. Sá, R. Biscaia and P. N. Teixeira)
Abstract: Students are admitted into higher education based on their past performance. This paper compares two measures of past cognitive skills: teacher and national exam scores. By using a nationwide dataset, we look at how the predictive power of teacher assessment and exam scores for selecting successful students may vary with the degree of selectivity of higher education programmes. We find that teacher scores predict students' performance in higher education more accurately, and its predictive power remains the same independently of the selectivity programme indicator considered. We found that national exam scores are noisier and only gain relevance for highly selective programmes. Furthermore, we explore national exams' volatility and institutional selectivity as potential mechanisms to justify the results. Our results provide solid policy hints on the role that high school scores and admission exams should have for access and performance in higher education.
Working paper available at IZA Discussion Papers No. 15350 [here]
(This paper won the María Jesus San Segundo Award in the AEDE 2022 in the category of the best paper award for young researchers)
7. Keeping it in the family: Student to degree match [R&R]
(with R. Murphy)
Abstract: This paper examines systematic inequalities in the match between students and the university degree they apply to, and enroll in. Using linked administrative data on the population of Portuguese applicants we create a transparent and continuous measure of student-to-degree match employing minimal assumptions. We find that students who are first in the family to attend post-secondary education consistently match to lower quality degrees across the entire achievement distribution. In contrast, only the highest achieving female students relatively undermatch. These gaps are larger at the application stage. We explore the role of student preferences and the consequences for intergenerational mobility.
Working paper available at CESifo Working papers No. 11075 [here] and IZA Discussion Papers No. 16931 [here]
Selected Work in Progress
8. When girls enter STEM
(with A. R. Cardoso and L. Morin)
9. Income-based affirmative action, take-up rate, and university enrolment
(with A. R. Cardoso and L. Morin)
10. Beyond the binary: A multi-dimension classification of Portuguese higher education institutions
(with C. Sarrico)
11.Determinants of switching higher education degrees
(with L. Orujova, C. Sá, and A. Carneiro)
12. The effects of skill mismatch and educational mismatch on earnings of Portuguese higher education graduates
(with A. Inácio and R. Biscaia)
13. The Impact of COVID-19 on dropout and delayed completion rates in Portuguese higher education
(with C. Sá, R. Luz, O.Tavares, and M. J. Tavares)
Books
14. Análise em Rn, Escolar Editora, 2017 (ISBN: 9789725925195, Year of Publication: 2017, Pages: 382)
(with P. Xufre and D. Mendes) [Undergraduate-level mathematics textbook (Portuguese)]
Book Chapters
15. Education as markets: Efficiency and equity as critical challenges
P. L. Silva, P. N. Teixeira
Editors: M. P. Amaral, S. Jornitz, S. K. Amos
Handbook: The global business of education: approaches, issues and critical directions
Springer Nature (Open Access)
Expected by Spring 2025
Abstract: The aim of this chapter is to explore how higher education has evolved into a more market-oriented sector and to examine the resulting challenges. Building on earlier discussions about the economics of education as a driver of human capital development, this chapter will focus on the essential issues of efficiency and equity in educational decision-making. By analysing the significant expansion in HE access, the chapter will underscore the high social and individual expectations regarding HE's role in promoting economic development and growth. Additionally, it will address the potential problems arising from this expansion, including aspects such as retention and dropout and increasing inequalities among graduates in employability and earnings. The chapter will critically evaluate the effects of deregulation and competition within higher education systems, weighing the arguments for and against these trends. Furthermore, it will investigate how higher education systems can perpetuate or exacerbate inequalities through institutional stratification and differing job market outcomes based on the type of degree, institution, and field of study.
Policy Reports
16. Avaliação de Impacto do Contingente Prioritário para Beneficiários de Ação Social Escolar (ASE-A) (Impact Assessment of the Priority Contingent for Beneficiaries of School Social Action (ASE-A)), for EDULOG - Belmiro de Azevedo Foundation [here] [dashboard]
(with L. Morin, A. R. Cardoso)
This report evaluates the effects of a policy implemented by the Portuguese government in the 2023/2024 academic year, which reserved 2% of public higher education vacancies for students receiving ASE-A benefits. The study found that without this priority contingent, approximately 41% of ASE-A beneficiaries who utilized this support would not have been admitted to their chosen courses and institutions. However, only about 43% of eligible candidates activated this option during their application process, possibly due to information gaps, financial constraints, or mismatches between available programs and student interests. The report suggests enhancing awareness of the ASE-A contingent, publishing minimum entry scores for all contingents to aid informed decision-making, providing additional financial support for relocation and accommodation, and continuously monitoring the long-term impacts on academic and professional success
17. Doutoramentos em Portugal (Doctoral Education in Portugal) [here]
(with C. Sarrico)
This work was suggested to the authors by Alberto Amaral, President of the Independent Commission for the evaluation of the application of the Legal Regime of Higher Education Institutions (Order No. 764/2023, dated January 16, 2023, Official Gazette No. 11/2023, Series II of January 16, 2023, pages 93 – 94). However, the responsibility for the work and its conclusions belongs solely to the authors.
18. Mestrados em Portugal (Master education in Portugal) [here]
(with C. Sarrico)
This work was suggested to the authors by Alberto Amaral, President of the Independent Commission for the evaluation of the application of the Legal Regime of Higher Education Institutions (Order No. 764/2023, dated January 16, 2023, Official Gazette No. 11/2023, Series II of January 16, 2023, pages 93 – 94). However, the responsibility for the work and its conclusions belongs solely to the authors.
19. Eurograduate 2022 National Report [here]
(with N. Rodrigues, F. Oliveira, R. Biscaia, A. Inácio, and V. Rudakov)
Google Sites
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