Barker et al. 2023

An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer.

Barker, B. S., Coop, L., Duan, J. J., & Petrice, T. R. (2023). An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer. Frontiers in Insect Science, 3, 1239173.

Keywords:

Forests and Woodlands; Tools and Practice; Agrilus planipennis; Fraxinus; forecast; surveillance; thermal stresses

Summary:

Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. Barker et al. (2023) presented a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats. Overall, the model exhibited strong performance, particularly in predicting adult phenological events. Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States (CONUS) are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions.

Take Home Points:

• Incorporating model forecasts into monitoring activities may increase the likelihood of EAB detection.

• Model forecasts may also improve the timing of control measures against susceptible life stages.

• Near real-time forecasts of EAB adult emergence and egg hatch for CONUS are available at the USA National Phenology Network and USPest.org.

Management Implications:

• Phenological models can support timely

  • • applications of insecticides for adults and larvae.

    • surveillance of adults (the most visible and therefore most easily detected life stage), which supports early detection programs for EAB.

    • releases of parasitoids that target EAB eggs or larvae.

• The model can be applied to explore potential shifts in EAB’s phenology and potential distribution under climate change.

Suggested Pairing:

NE RISCC Research Summary: Duan et al. 2018. "Host utilization, reproductive biology, and development of the larval parasitoid Tetrastichus planipennisi as influenced by temperature: Implications for biological control of the emerald ash borer in North America."

Summary Author: Brittany Barker

Summary Editor: Emily Fusco