Undergrad Thesis
Title: Analyzing the nexus between anthropogenic emission and its determinants: A case study from an emerging economy perspective
Supervisor: Dr. A. B. M. Mainul Bari, Associate Professor, Dept. of Industrial and Production Engineering, BUET
Currently, the work is under review in 'Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment'
Abstract:
Human activities, like- burning fossil fuels, industrial growth, and urban expansion, have led to alarming increases in CO2 levels, contributing to rising global temperatures and environmental degradation. In developing countries like Bangladesh, rapid industrialization, expanding urban populations, and energy demands have created further challenges in managing environmental sustainability. Understanding the dynamic relationships between these factors is crucial to mitigating their impacts on the environment. For this reason, this research examines the association between electricity access, manufacturing productivity, urbanization, and trade with the emission of CO2 in an emerging economy like Bangladesh, utilizing the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. This study used openly available data extracted from the World Bank database. The extracted annual data ranges from 1991 to 2021. This research discovers that all variables have a positive and statistically significant effect on the emission of CO2 in both the long term and short term. Particularly, a 1% increase in electricity access leads to a 0.07% rise in CO2 emissions in the long term and a 0.10% rise in the short term. Manufacturing productivity results in a 0.61% long-term and 0.46% short-term increase. Urbanization contributes to a 1.36% increase in the long run and a 1.46% in the short run, while trade causes a 0.58% long-term and 0.27% short-term increase in emissions. The robustness of these findings is confirmed through alternative estimation techniques like Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). Later, a pairwise Granger causality test was also conducted to explore the causal links between the variables. Our findings emphasize the need for policies in Bangladesh that promote energy efficiency, green manufacturing, sustainable urban planning, and environmentally conscious trade practices to control temperature rise and mitigate environmental degradation.
Research Framework
Results
ARDL Bounds test and ARDL, Error Correction Model (ECM) results
ARDL Bounds test calculation (To determine long-term cointegration)
ARDL and ECM results
Diagnostic Inspection Test (to assess the relibility of ARDL results)
Robustness Analysis (to assess the long term validity of ARDL results)
-employed three models (FMOLS, DOLS and CCR)