All publications
Articles in refereed journals
77. Yao, Fosgerau, Paulsen, Rasmussen. Perturbed utility stochastic traffic assignment. Forthcoming Transportation Science.
76. Fosgerau, Monardo, de Palma. The Inverse Product Differentiation Logit Model. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3141041 (Forthcoming AEJ Micro).
75. Fosgerau, Lukawska, Paulsen, Rasmussen. (2023) Bikability and the induced demand for cycling. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120 (16) e2220515120 (Open access).
74. Sørensen, Fosgerau. (2022) How McFadden Met Rockafellar and Learned to Do More With Less. Journal of Mathematical Economics. (Open access)
73. Fosgerau, Paulsen, Rasmussen. (2022) A perturbed utility route choice model. Transportation Research Part C. Vol. 136, 103514. (Open Access).
72. Fosgerau, Sethi, Weibull. (2023) Equilibrium Screening and Categorical Inequality. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2023, 15 (3), pp. 201–242.
71. Fosgerau, Melo, Shum, Sørensen. (2021) Some Remarks on CCP-based Estimators of Dynamic Models. Economics Letters, Vol. 204 . (Open access) Code available here.
70. Fosgerau, M., Melo, E., de Palma, A., Shum, M. (2020) Discrete Choice and Rational Inattention: A General Equivalence Result. International Economic Review, Vol. 61 (4), 1569-1589. (Open access)
69. Fosgerau, M., Kristensen, D. (2021) Identification of a class of index models: A topological approach. The Econometrics Journal. Vol. 24 (1), pp. Pages 121–133. (Open Access)
68. Engelson, L., Fosgerau, M. (2020) Scheduling preferences and the value of travel time information. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 134, pp. 256-265. (Published, WP)
67. Czerny, J., Fosgerau, M., Jost, P.J., van Ommeren, J., (2019) Why Pay for Jobs (and Not for Tasks)? Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 168, pp. 419-433. (Published, WP)
66. Jiang, G., Fosgerau, M., Lo, H.K. (2019) Route choice, travel time variability, and rational inattention. Transportation Research Part B. (Published, WP)
65. Kim, J., Fosgerau, M. (2019) Commuting and land use in a city with bottlenecks: Theory and evidence. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 77, pp. 182-204 . (Published, WP)
64. Eliasson, J., Fosgerau, M. (2019) Cost-benefit analysis of transport improvements in the presence of spillovers, matching and an income tax. Economics of Transportation, Vol. 18, 1-9. (Published, WP)
63. Fosgerau, M., Jiang, G. (2019) Travel time variability and rational inattention. Transportation. Research Part B, Vol. 120, pp. 1-14. (Published, WP)
62. Hvidtfeldt, C., Schultz-Nielsen, M.L., Tekin, E., Fosgerau, M. (2018) An estimate of the effect of waiting time in the Danish asylum system on post-resettlement employment among refugees: separating the pure delay effect from the effects of the conditions under which refugees are waiting. PLOS ONE. (Published, WP)
61. Fosgerau, M., Kim, J., Ranjan, A. (2018) Vickrey Meets Alonso: Commute Scheduling and Congestion in a Monocentric City. Journal of Urban Economics 105, pp. 40-53. (Published, WP)
60. Fosgerau, M., Lindberg, P.O., Mattsson, L.-G., Weibull, J. (2018) A note on the invariance of the distribution of the maximum. Journal of Mathematical Economics, Vol. 74, pp. 56-61. (Published, WP)
59. Fosgerau, M., Ranjan, A. (2017) A note on identification in discrete choice models with partial observability. Theory and Decision. Vol. 83 (2), pp 283–292. (Published, WP)
58. Mai, T., Frejinger, E., Fosgerau, M., Bastin, F. (2017) A dynamic programming approach for quickly estimating large network-based MEV models. Transportation Research Part B. Vol. 98, pp. 179-197. (Published, WP)
57. Fosgerau, M., Small, K. (2017) Endogenous scheduling preferences and congestion. International Economic Review, Vol. 58 (2), pp. 585–615. (Published, WP)
56. Engelson, L., Fosgerau, M. (2016) The cost of travel time variability: three measures with properties. Transportation Research Part B. Vol. 91, pp. 555–564. (Published, WP)
55. Carra, G., Mulalic, I., Fosgerau, M., Barthelemy, M. (2016) Modeling the relation between income and commuting distance. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol 13, Issue 119. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0306. (Published, WP)
54. Fosgerau, M., Börjesson, M. (2015) Manipulating a stated choice experiment. Journal of Choice Modelling, Vol. 16, pp. 43-49. (Published, WP)
53. Fosgerau, M. (2015) Congestion in the bathtub. Economics of Transportation, Vol 4. 241-255. (Published, WP)
52. Mai, T., Frejinger, E., Fosgerau, M. (2015) A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 75, pp. 100-112. (Published, WP)
51. Hjorth, K., Börjesson, M., Engelson, L., Fosgerau, M. (2015) Estimating exponential scheduling preferences. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 81, pp. 230-251. (Published, WP)
50. Börjesson, M., Fosgerau, M. (2015) Response Time Patterns in a Stated Choice Experiment. Journal of Choice Modelling, Vol. 14, pp- 48-58. (Published, WP)
49. Fosgerau, M., Engelson, L., Franklin, J. (2014) Commuting for meetings. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 81, pp. 104-113. (Published, WP)
48. Eliasson, J., Fosgerau, M. (2013) Cost overruns and demand shortfalls: deception or selection? Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 57, pp. 105-113. (Published, WP)
47. Fosgerau, M., Frejinger, E., Karlstrom, A. (2013) A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 56, pp. 70-80. (Published, WP)
46. Fosgerau, M., de Palma, A. (2013) The dynamics of urban traffic congestion and the price of parking. Journal of Public Economics Vol. 105, pp. 106-115. (Published, WP)
45. Fosgerau, M., Lindsey, R.(2013) Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents. Regional Science and Urban Economics. Vol. 45 (5), pp. 764-782. (Published, WP)
44. Fosgerau, M., McFadden, D., Bierlaire, M. Choice-probability Generating Functions. (NBER WP 17970.) Journal of Choice Modelling Vol. 8, pp. 1-18. (Published, WP)
43. de Palma, A. & Fosgerau, M. (2013) Random queues and risk averse users. European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 230 (2), pp. 313-320. (Published, WP)
42. Fosgerau, M. & Mabit, S. (2013) Easy and flexible mixture distributions. Economics Letters 120(2), pp. 206-210. (Published, WP)
41. Fosgerau, M. & Small, K. (2013) Hypercongestion in downtown metropolis. Journal of Urban Economics 76, pp. 122-134. (Published, WP)
40. Fosgerau, M. & van Dender, K. (2013) Road Pricing with Complications. Transportation, Vol. 40(3), pp. 479-503. (Published, WP)
39. Hjorth, K. & Fosgerau, M. (2012) Using prospect theory to investigate the low marginal value of travel time for small time changes. Transportation Research Part B 46, pp. 917-932. (Published, WP)
38. Fosgerau, M. & Fukuda, D. (2012) Characteristics of the distribution of travel times on an urban road. Transportation Research Part C, Vol. 24, pp. 83-101. (Published, WP)
37. Ben-Akiva, M., de Palma, A., McFadden, D., Abou-Zeid, M. Chiappori, P.A., de Lapparent, M., Durlauf, S.N., Fosgerau, M., Fukuda, D., Hess, S., Manski, C., Pakes, A., Picard, N., Walker, J (2012). Process and Context in Choice Models. Marketing Letters 23 (2), pp. 439–456. (Published, WP)
36. Fosgerau, M. & de Palma, A. (2012) Congestion in a city with a central bottleneck. Journal of Urban Economics 71, pp. 269-277. (Published, WP)
35. De Borger, B. & Fosgerau, M. (2012) Information provision by regulated bus companies. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 46, pp. 492-510. (Published, WP)
34. Fosgerau, M. & Jensen, T.C. (2013) A green reform is not always green. Transportation Research Part C, Vol. 30, pp. 210-220. (Published, WP)
33. Börjesson, M., Fosgerau, M., & Algers, S. (2012) On the income elasticity of the value of travel time. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 46, Issue 2, pp. 368-377. (Published, WP)
32. Fosgerau, M. & Small, K. (2011) Marginal congestion cost on a dynamic expressway network. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 46, pp. 431-450. (Published, WP)
31. Engelson, L. & Fosgerau, M. (2011) Additive measures of travel time variability. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 45 (10) pp. 1560–1571. (Published, WP)
30. Börjesson, M., Fosgerau, M., & Algers, S. (2012) Catching the Tail: Empirical Identification of the Distribution of the Value of Travel Time. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 46, Issue 2, pp. 378-39. (Published, WP)
29. Fosgerau, M. (2011) How a fast lane may replace a congestion toll. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 45 (6), pp. 845-851. (Published, WP)
28. Hjorth, K. & Fosgerau, M. (2011) Loss aversion and individual characteristics. Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 49 (4), pp. 573-596. (Published, WP)
27. Mabit, S. & Fosgerau, M. (2011) Demand for alternative-fuel vehicles when registration taxes are high. Transportation Research D, 16, pp. 225-231. (Published, WP)
26. Fosgerau, M. & Engelson, L. (2011) The value of travel time variance. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 45, Issue 1, pp. 1-8. (Published, WP)
25. Fosgerau, M. & Nielsen, S.F. (2010) Deconvoluting preferences and errors: A model for binomial panel data. Econometric Theory Vol. 26, pp. 1846-1854. (Published, WP)
24. Fosgerau, M., Hjorth, K. & Vincent, S. (2010) Between-mode differences in the value of travel time: Self-selection or strategic behaviour? Transportation Research D, Vol. 15 (7), pp. 370-381. (Published, WP)
23. Fosgerau, M. (2010) On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Vol. 34 (4), 598-603. (Published, WP)
22. Fosgerau, M. & Karlström, A. (2010) The value of reliability. Transportation Research Part B Vol. 44, Issue 1, pp. 38-49. (Published, WP)
21. Fosgerau, M. & Hess, S. (2009) A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models . European Transport, Issue 42. (Published, WP)
20. Fosgerau, M. (2009) The marginal social cost of headway for a scheduled service. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43, Issue 8-9, pp. 813-820. (Published, WP)
19. Fosgerau, M. & Bierlaire, M. (2009) Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43, Issue 5, pp. 494-505. (Published, WP)
18. van Ommeren, J. & Fosgerau, M. (2009) Workers' marginal costs of commuting. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 65, 38-47. (Published, WP)
17. Kuosmanen, T. & Fosgerau, M. (2009) Neoclassical versus frontier production models? Testing for the skewness of regression residuals. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 111(2), pp. 351-367. (Published, WP)
16. Fosgerau, M. (2008) Specification testing of discrete choice models: a note on the use of a nonparametric test. Journal of Choice Modelling, Vol. 1(1), pp. 26-39. (Published, WP)
15. De Borger, B. & Fosgerau, M. (2008) The trade-off between money and time: A test of the theory of reference-dependent preferences. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 64 (1), pp. 101-115. (Published, WP)
14. Pilegaard, N. & Fosgerau, M. (2008) Cost Benefit Analysis of a Transport Improvement in the Case of Search Unemployment. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 42, Part 1. (Published, WP)13. Fosgerau, M. (2007). Using nonparametrics to specify a model to measure the value of travel time. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 41/9, pp. 842-856. (Published, WP)
12. Fosgerau, M., Bierlaire, M. (2007). A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 41, Issue 7, August 2007, pp. 784-794. (Published, WP)
11. Kveiborg, O. & Fosgerau, M. (2007). Decomposing the decoupling of freight traffic growth and economic growth. Transport Policy, Vol. 14, Issue 1, January 2007, pp. 39-48. (Published, WP)
10. Fosgerau, M. (2006). Investigating the distribution of the value of travel time savings. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 40, Issue 8, pp. 688-707. (Published, WP)
9. Fosgerau, M. & Bjørner, T.B. (2006). Joint models for noise annoyance and willingness to pay for road noise reduction. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 40, Issue 2, pp. 164-178. (Published, WP)
8. Fosgerau, M. & Kristensen, N.B. (2005). Who gains? - Allocation of Freight Transport User Benefits from International Infrastructure Projects in Multicountry Cost-Benefit Analysis, Transportation Research Record 1906, pp. 19-25. (Published, WP)
7. Fosgerau, M. (2005). Speed and income. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Vol. 39, Part 2, May 2005, pp. 225-240. (Published, WP)
6. Fosgerau, M. (2004). Speed and income with endogenous speed and distance. CD of Selected and Revised Papers of the X. World Conference on Transport Research, 4-8 July 2004, Istanbul, Turkey. (NA)
5. Fosgerau, M. & Kveiborg, O. (2004). A review of some critical assumptions in the relationship between economic activity and freight transport. International Journal of Transport Economics, Vol. XXXI No. 2, June 2004. (Published, WP)
4. Fosgerau, M., Jensen, S.E.H. & Sørensen, A. (2002). Measuring Educational Heterogeneity and Labor Quality: A Note. Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 261-69, June. (Published, WP)
3. Fosgerau, M. (2001). Nogle facts om dansk produktivitet. Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift, 139: 42-60. (Published, WP)
2. Fosgerau, M. (1995). Selection From Upper Semi-continuous Compact Valued Mappings. Mathematica Scandinavica, 76, 247-256. (Published, WP)
1. Fosgerau, M. (1993). When Are Borel Functions Baire Functions? Fundamenta Mathematicae, 143. (Published, WP)
Reprints
Reprinted in Vickerman, R. (ed., 2012) Recent Developments In The Economics Of Transport, Edward Elgar.
3. Fosgerau, M. & Karlström, A. (2010) The value of reliability.
2. Fosgerau, M. (2010) On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand.
1. Fosgerau, M. (2006). Investigating the distribution of the value of travel time savings.
Theses, Books and Monographs
2. Three papers in analysis and general topology, 1992. Ph.D. dissertation, University College London.
1. Measurable selection, monotone convergence and a lot of other things, 1989. Cand.scient.oecon dissertation, University of Aarhus.
Chapters in Books
7. Fosgerau, M., Pilegaard, N. (2021) The rule-of-a-half and interpreting the consumer surplus as accessibility In: Vickerman, Roger (eds.) International Encyclopedia of Transportation vol 1. pp.237 - 241. United Kingdom: Elsevier Ltd.
6. Fosgerau, M. (2014) Nonparametric approaches to describing heterogeneity. Handbook of Choice Modelling, Edward Elgar.
5. de Palma, A. & Fosgerau, M. (2011) Dynamic Traffic Modeling. In de Palma, A., Lindsey, R., Quinet, E., & Vickerman, R. (eds) A Handbook of Transport Economics, Edward Elgar.
4. Mabit, S. & Fosgerau, M. (2010) Mode choice endogeneity in value of travel time estimation. In Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (eds), Choice Modelling: the state-of-the-art and the state-of-practice - Proceedings from the inaugural international choice modelling conference, Emerald.
3. Mabit, S., Fosgerau, M. (2007) Controlling for sample selection in the estimation of the value of travel time. Forthcoming in the Proceedings of the 2006 IATBR Conference in Kyoto, Japan.
2. Fosgerau, M. (2001). PETRA - an Activity-based Approach to Travel Demand Analysis. In Lars-Göran Mattson and Lars Lundquist, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden (Eds.), National Transport Models. ‘Advances in Spatial Science’, Springer Verlag.
1. Fosgerau, M., Sørensen, A. (2000). Produktivitetsvækst i Danmark. In Jensen, S.H. (Ed.), Økonomi og Erhvervspolitik, Handelshøjskolens Forlag.
Articles in Danish Publications
13. Ny økonomisk teori kan forklare bilkøb, hjælpe byplanlæggere og gøre os bedre til at forudsige fremtiden. Videnskab.dk, 2019.
12. Modeller fra fysikken kan forudsige, hvor langt du vil pendle. Videnskab.dk, 2016.
11. Vinderens forbandelse. Politiken August 2014.
10. Trængsel i badekarret. Weekendavisen – Ideer. 25 juni 2014.
9. Bane til Billund – økonomisk galimatias (with Otto Anker Nielsen). Berlingske January 20, 2014.
8. Derfor bliver broer og motorveje altid dyrere end beregnet. Videnskab.dk, September 2, 2013.
7. Betalingsring bør indføres med omtanke. Politiken 10. September 2011.
6. Hvornår skal vækkeuret ringe? Weekendavisen – Ideer. Nr. 16, 17. - 24. april 2008.
5. Hvad koster ti minutter. Weekendavisen – Ideer. Nr. 49, 9. - 15. december 2005.
4. Arbejdskraften og den økonomiske vækst i Danmark. CEF OB-2000-2, http://www.cebr.dk.
3. Aktivt Ejerskab og Selskabsstyring i mindre virksomheder (with Morten Bennedsen). CEF OB-2000-3, http://www.cebr.dk
2. PETRA – analysemodel for persontransport (with Jørgen Jordal-Jørgensen and Anne Ohm). Transportrådet, Notat 99-06.
1. Analyse af Bilafgifter 2000 (with Anne Ohm and Mette Bøgelund). Transportrådet, Notat 95-05.
Selected reports
29. Fosgerau, M. (2019) “Automation and the Value of Time in Passenger Transport”, International Transport Forum Discussion Papers, No. 2019/10, OECD Publishing, Paris.
28. Le Masurier, P., M Fosgerau, K. Hjorth, R. Maldonardo, J. Polak (2015). Value of travel time savings - Peer review & audit. Prepared for the Department for Transport, UK.
27. Fosgerau, M., K. Hjorth, C. Brems, D. Fukuda (2008). Travel time variability – definition and valuation. DTF Rapport.
26. Fosgerau, M. m.fl. (2007) Langsigtet fremskrivning af vejtrafik – indikation af fremtidige problemområder. Baggrundsrapport til Infrastrukturkommissionen. DTF Rapport.
25. Fosgerau, M. m.fl. (2007) Langsigtet fremskrivning af vejtrafik – indikation af fremtidige problemområder. Hovedrapport til Infrastrukturkommissionen. DTF Rapport.
24. Fosgerau, M., K. Hjorth, S. Vincent Lyk-Jensen and J. Marott (2005). The Danish Value of Time Study: Transfer Pricing. DTF Note.
23. Fosgerau, M., K. Hjorth, and S. Vincent Lyk-Jensen (2006). The Danish Value of Time Study: Results from experiment 2. DTF Note.
22. Fosgerau, M., K. Hjorth, and S. Vincent Lyk-Jensen (2006). The Danish Value of Time Study: Results from experiment 1. DTF Note.
21. Fosgerau, M., K. Hjorth, and S. Vincent Lyk-Jensen (2006). The Danish Value of Time Study: Data description, DTF Note.
20. Fosgerau, M., Hjorth, K., Vincent Lyk-Jensen, S. (2006). The Danish Value of Time Study, final report. DTF Report
19. Mogens Fosgerau (2006). Hvad ved vi om kørselsafgifter? DTF Notat.
18. Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen, Mogens Fosgerau and Ole Kveiborg (2005). Forecasting future freight flows for Denmark. DTF Notat 4-2005.
17. Christens, P.F., Fosgerau, M. (2004). Rådighed over bil. DTF Notat 3-2004.
16. Kveiborg, O., Fosgerau, M. (2004). Udviklingen i godstransport med lastbil i Danmark. DTF Notat 4-2004.
15. Fosgerau, M., Holmblad, M., Pilegaard, N. (2004). ART En aggregeret prognosemodel for dansk vejtrafik. DTF Notat 5-2004.
14. Samfundsøkonomisk konsekvensvurdering af en fast forbindelse over Femern Bælt (with Ninette Pilegaard and COWI). http://www.trafikministeriet.dk, 2004.
13. Samfundsøkonomisk konsekvensvurdering af en fast forbindelse over Femern Bælt (with Ninette Pilegaard). http://www.dtf.dk, 2004.
12. En national godstrafikmodel – Arbejdsprogram (with Otto Anker Nielsen and Christian Overgaard Hansen). http://www.dtf.dk, 2003.
11. En national godstrafikmodel – Metodestudie (with Otto Anker Nielsen, Christian Overgaard Hansen, Mikal Holmblad and Jeppe Husted Rich). http://www.dtf.dk, 2003.
10. Forstudie til samfundsøkonomiske tidsværdier, (with Goran Jovicic, Ninette Pilegaard and others). Trafikministeriet, 2003.
9. Værdien af tid - Grundlaget for tidsværdier til samfundsøkonomiske vurderinger (with Ninette Pilegaard). http://www.dtf.dk, 2003.
8. Notat 1 Behovsanalyse, forstudie vedrørende en national godstrafikmodel. http://www.dtf.dk, 2003.
7. Enlargement and transport. Commission Expert Group on Transport and Environment, Working Group III, 10. January 2003.
6. 130 km/t på motorveje – Konsekvenser af ændret hastighedsgrænse. http://www.dtf.dk, 2002.
5. Undersøgelse af muligheder for at forbedre kvaliteten af modelarbejdet på transportområdet i Hovedstadsregionen, 2001. http://www.dtf.dk.
4. Tidsvärden och transportkvalitet - INREGIA:s studie av tidsvärden och transportkvalitet för godstransporter 1999, (with Christer Persson and others). Underlagsrapport till SAMPLAN 2001:1, 2001.
3. Udenrigshandelsmodel for Sverige (with Mikkel Birkeland). SIKA, http://www.sika-institute.se/utgivning/sam01_1_u2.pdf, 1999.
2. Personbilers energieffektivitet – potentialet for forbedring gennem afgiftsstrukturen (with Mikkel Birkeland and Jørgen Jordal-Jørgensen). Energiministeriets Forskningsprogram, 1998.
1. Afgiftsdifferentiering og miljømærkning. CO2-reduktioner i transportsektoren, Trafikministeriet, 1997.