Job Market Paper (2022-2023 season):
``Crime and Punishment?" How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," with Anna Pestova and Steven Ongena [Latest version: June 2023] Submitted to a journal
Slides (October 2022)
CEPR Discussion paper 16075 (April 2021), CERGE-EI Working Paper 753 (June 2023), Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 23-59 (July 2023)
Media coverage: VoxEU (June 2021)
Talks: 2023 North Finance Association (NFA) Meeting (September 2023, Toronto, scheduled), 50th EFA Conference (August 2023, Amsterdam), Research Seminar at HEC Lausanne (8 May 2023), ``Brown Bag'' at Michigan State University (14 April 2023), Informal Macro Seminar at Princeton University (October 2022), CERGE-EI ``Brown Bag" Research Seminar (Prague, Czech Republic, September 2022), Research Seminar at the Bundesbank (Online, August 2022), Tri-City Day-Ahead Workshop on the Future of Financial Intermediation (Frankfurt, August 2022), the 11th MoFiR CEPR banking workshop (July 2022, Portugal), EUI Florence School of Banking and Finance Research seminar ``Crime and Punishment: The Effects of Sanctions on Russia'' (May 2022, Florence, Italy), the AFI Research Seminar at KU Leuven (April 2022), EBRD Research Seminar (April 2022), Research Seminar in Contract Theory, Banking and Money at the University of Zurich (March 2022), 2021-EEA-ESEM (August 2021), Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society (June 2021)
Abstract: We study the impact of global financial sanctions on banks and their corporate borrowers in Russia. Financial sanctions were consecutively imposed between 2014 and 2019, allowing targeted (but not yet sanctioned) banks to adapt their international and domestic exposures in advance. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach with in-advance adaptation to anticipated treatment, we establish that targeted banks immediately reduced their foreign assets and actually expanded their international borrowings, compared to similar other banks. Once sanctioned, however, these banks not only further reduced their foreign assets but also started to decrease their international borrowings as well and faced considerable outflow of domestic private deposits. The introduction of government support prevented the banks' disorderly failures and resulted in credit reshuffling: the banks contracted their lending to the domestic corporate sector by at least 4% of GDP and increased household lending by almost the same magnitude, mostly offsetting the total economic loss. Further, we introduce a two-stage treatment diffusion approach that flexibly addresses potential spillovers of the sanctions to private banks with political connections. Using unique hand-collected board membership and bank location data our approach shows that, throughout this period, politically-connected banks were not all equally recognized as potential sanction targets. Finally, using the syndicated loan data we establish that the negative real effects of sanctions materialized only when sanctioned firms were borrowing from sanctioned banks.
Working Papers:
1) ``Quo Vadis? New Firm-Bank Matching Following "Sin'' Bank Closures," with Roman Goncharenko, Steven Ongena, Svetlana Popova, and Natalia Turdyeva [Latest version: April 2023]
Slides (April 2023)
CEPR Discussion Paper 17075 (January 2022)
Talks: Research Seminar at the SKEMA Business School (Nice, 16 December 2024, scheduled), 3rd Paris School of Business Workshop on Banks and Financial Markets (26 April 2024), French Inter-Business School Workshop in Finance (Montpellier Business School, 25 April 2024), Brown Bag seminar at Halle Institute for Economic Studies (IWH, 12 March 2024), ``Finance in the Tuscan Hills'' seminar series at the Florence School of Banking and Finance (EUI, 7 December 2023), 2023-EEA-ESEM (August 2023, Barcelona), Special Banking Seminar at the University of Zurich (May 2023), Brown Bag at the University of Miami (24 April 2023), 2022-EEA-ESEM (22-24 August 2022, Bocconi University), 26th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (ICMAIF, May 2022, Crete, Greece), BOFIT Research Seminar (March 2022, Helsinki), CInSt HSE Research Seminar (January 2022, Moscow),
2) ``The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia,” with Anna Pestova [Latest version: May 2023]
Slides (September 2022)
CERGE-EI Working paper 704 (September 2021)
Media coverage: The Guardian (October 2022), VoxTalks Podcast (June 2022), VoxEU #1 (April 2022), VoxEU #2 (October 2022), CERGE-EI ``Talking Economics'' Podcast (April 2022), RBC (June 2019)
Talks: 25th Conference ``Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics'' (April 2022, King's College London), Research Seminar in Contract Theory, Banking and Money at the University of Zurich (May 2022), 26th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (ICMAIF, May 2022, Crete, Greece), EUI Florence School of Banking and Finance Research seminar ``Crime and Punishment: The Effects of Sanctions on Russia'' (May 2022, Florence, Italy), Research Seminar at the Bundesbank (Online, August 2022), the 2nd ``Sailing the Macro'' Workshop (September 2022, Ventotene, Italy), 2023-EEA-ESEM (August 2023, Barcelona)
3) "Disasters and (Bank) Financing," with Anna Pestova and Steven Ongena [March 2024] new!
CEPR Press eBook (March 2024)
Slides (coming soon!)
Media coverage: VoxTalks Podcast (March 2024),
Talks: 3rd LTI Conference at Collegio Carlo Alberto (November 2023, Turin)
4) "Credit Expansion and the Risk of Recession in the Global Cross-Section of Firms," with Anna Pestova and Eleonora Sfrappini [draft coming by mid-June 2024]
Previous title: Bank Credit and the Risk of Recession: The Role of Business Cycle Shocks [Latest version: April 2023]
Slides (May 2022)
Talks: Essex Finance Center (EFiC) 2024 Conference in Banking and Finance (July 4-5, scheduled), 2023 Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society (August), Macro dinner at Princeton University (December 2022), CERGE-EI Brown Bag seminar (2020, 2022), Center for Econometrics and Business Analytics at the St.Petersburg State University (2020), the Royal Economic Society Conference (RES-2021), the Italian Econometric Society Conference (ICEEE-2021), 26th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (ICMAIF, May 2022, Crete, Greece), Research Seminar in Contract Theory, Banking and Money at the University of Zurich (August 2022), the 2nd ``Sailing the Macro'' Workshop (September 2022, Ventotene, Italy)
5) "Bank Cost Efficiency and Credit Market Structure Under a Volatile Exchange Rate," with Artem Prokhorov and Christopher Parmeter [Latest version] re-submitted to the Journal of Banking and Finance (2nd round)
Slides (June 2022)
[SSRN, Supplementary Material] (April 2022)
Talks: the 13th International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and Methodological Statistics (CMStatistics 2020, London), 12th (virtual) North-American Productivity Workshop (vNAPW 2021, Miami), 1st Inaugural International Conference on Econometrics and Business Analytics (iCEBA 2021, Saint-Petersburg), 5th International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta 2022, Japan)
6) "Credit Supply Shocks and Household Defaults," with Anna Pestova
Slides (May 2021)
SSRN (April 2023), CERGE-EI Working paper 691 (March 2021)
Talks: 2020-EEA-ESEM (August 2020, virtual), 2020 Central Bank Macro Modelling Workshop (Norway, October 2020), SEHO Annual Meeting (Boston, May 2021)
7) "Measuring Fraud in Banking and Its Impact on the Economy: A Quasi-Natural Experiment"
Slides (soon)
SSRN (June 2022), CERGE-EI Working paper (soon)
Talks: the 2023 International Conference in Finance, Banking and Accounting (2023-ICFBA, Montpellier Business School, France, September 2023)
8) "The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Economy" [2020] with Daria Kolesnik, Alexei Kiselev, and Anna Pestova - Accepted at the Oxford Bulleting of Economics & Statistics
Work in Progress:
1) "Political Extremism, Bank Credit, and Recessions" with Mario Carillo, Raoul Minetti, and Pierluigi Murro
2) "Striving for Sustainability in Banking? Evidence from Socio-Environmental Guidelines in Brazil" with Hans Degryse, Bernardus van Doornik, Carola Theunisz, and Maxim Schepers.
3) "Fanning the Flames? Cross-Border Bank Lending during Wars and Conflicts" with Ralph De Haas, Alexander Popov, and Iliriana Shala
4) "The Great Revenge? How Politicians Punish Firms in Opposition Areas after Elections" with Alexander Popov and Steven Ongena
5) "Potato to the Rescue: Home Production and Child Nutrition during Deep Economic Crises" with Anna Pestova and Ella Sargsyan