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ClimateHub project - forecasting crop yields at farm and field scales
ClimateHub project - forecasting crop yields at farm and field scales
Purpose
Purpose
Cornwall, in common with many parts of the world, is experiencing changes in climate. While some of these are having an adverse impact on agriculture, they also create opportunities to grow new crops or expand the cultivation of existing crops that are only grown in small quantities. However, as many such crops originate from warmer regions, they require specific microclimatic conditions in which to grow. An important challenge for the Cornish agricultural industry is therefore to identify where these locations will be, so that any opportunities can be fully realised.
Cornwall, in common with many parts of the world, is experiencing changes in climate. While some of these are having an adverse impact on agriculture, they also create opportunities to grow new crops or expand the cultivation of existing crops that are only grown in small quantities. However, as many such crops originate from warmer regions, they require specific microclimatic conditions in which to grow. An important challenge for the Cornish agricultural industry is therefore to identify where these locations will be, so that any opportunities can be fully realised.
The ClimateHub project
The ClimateHub project
The University of Exeter ClimateHub project (conducted in partnership with Farm Cornwall and supported and funded by Agri-tech Cornwall and the European Regional Development Fund) has developed and applied a series of climate models and coupled these to state-crop growth models to predict and map crop yields under current and future climate conditions. Building on 15 years of expertise in microclimate modelling, we have modelled the climate across Cornwall at 100m resolution, thereby enabling farm and field-scale estimates of crop yields. The crop model used, ‘WOFOST’ (WOrld FOod Studies), is one of the key components of the European MARS crop yield forecasting system and underpins analyses in the Global Yield Gap Atlas.
The University of Exeter ClimateHub project (conducted in partnership with Farm Cornwall and supported and funded by Agri-tech Cornwall and the European Regional Development Fund) has developed and applied a series of climate models and coupled these to state-crop growth models to predict and map crop yields under current and future climate conditions. Building on 15 years of expertise in microclimate modelling, we have modelled the climate across Cornwall at 100m resolution, thereby enabling farm and field-scale estimates of crop yields. The crop model used, ‘WOFOST’ (WOrld FOod Studies), is one of the key components of the European MARS crop yield forecasting system and underpins analyses in the Global Yield Gap Atlas.
What the maps show
What the maps show
Predicted yields are shown for the current period (2012-2017) and future climate (2042-2047), making the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise over the next 50 years. Initial analysis focuses on fourteen crops listed below. These are a combination of crops currently grown and ones which could potentially be grown under future conditions. Of those that could potentially be grown, only subsets predicted to reach maturity in the region are shown. Analyses are restricted to farmland and places where wind speeds do not regular exceed 35 knots. For each crop, you are able to toggle between maps of current and future yield projections. The spatial resolution of these maps is 100m.
Predicted yields are shown for the current period (2012-2017) and future climate (2042-2047), making the assumption that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise over the next 50 years. Initial analysis focuses on fourteen crops listed below. These are a combination of crops currently grown and ones which could potentially be grown under future conditions. Of those that could potentially be grown, only subsets predicted to reach maturity in the region are shown. Analyses are restricted to farmland and places where wind speeds do not regular exceed 35 knots. For each crop, you are able to toggle between maps of current and future yield projections. The spatial resolution of these maps is 100m.
English name and primary geographic range of the crop species modelled using the WOFOST crop model
English name and primary geographic range of the crop species modelled using the WOFOST crop model
Primary geographic region of variety shown
Primary geographic region of variety shown
Europe
Europe
Tropical
Tropical
Tropical
Tropical
Europe
Europe
Southern Germany, Northern France
Southern Germany, Northern France
Sub-tropical varieties
Sub-tropical varieties
Northern Europe
Northern Europe
Central and Northern Europe
Central and Northern Europe
Northern France
Northern France
Northern Europe
Northern Europe
France, Italy, Spain, Greece
France, Italy, Spain, Greece
Tropical
Tropical
Tropical
Tropical
Tropical
Tropical
Further information
Further information
For more information about ClimateHub and other agricultural research projects please see the Agritech Cornwall website here https://www.agritechcornwall.co.uk/projects/climatehub/
For more information about ClimateHub and other agricultural research projects please see the Agritech Cornwall website here https://www.agritechcornwall.co.uk/projects/climatehub/
For more information about novel crops please see WOFOST website. The R-software implantation of the model developed by the University of Exeter can be obtained from here. The microclimate modelling software can be obtained from here.
For more information about novel crops please see WOFOST website. The R-software implantation of the model developed by the University of Exeter can be obtained from here. The microclimate modelling software can be obtained from here.
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