Embedded Files
A Qualitative Consensus Method
"Collective Intelligence"
The Delphi Process is a forecasting process framework where a panel of experts remain anonymous and independent in debate, and arrive at a unanimous and common consensus as a result of multiple rounds of comprehensive questionnaires. At the end of each round of questionnaires, the panel of experts share their opinions, viewpoints, estimates and assumptions to the neutral facilitator (Fink-Hafner, 2019). Below is a visual flow chart to aid in the understanding of how the Delphi method is to be utilized.
Did you know? 💡 In Greek mythology, the “Oracle of Delphi” was a priestess that made prophecies (predictions) about the future, and ultimately helped to establish law and order.
The Delphi process was developed in the 1950’s by the RAND Corporation, and has since benefited many different fields including business, government, and healthcare (Dufresne, 2018). The process is typically used when there is no definitive answer in research, or when opinions are considered. This process relies on the opinions of a panel of experts, since relying on a single expert would be bias (Dufresne, 2018). The process has an impact on assessing and forecasting the future, so it is used to make decisions about complex research issues with input based on experts input (i.e: decision making, policies and long-range forecasting).
There are four defining characteristics of the Delphi process- anonymity, iteration with controlled feedback, statistical group response and expert input (Dufresne, 2018).
1. Anonymity- Group members can express their beliefs and opinions freely. Removes the potential for peer-influenced decisions
2. Iteration with controlled feedback- Controlled feedback provides panel experts to have insight into what other panel members are expressing
3. Statistical group response- Participants are able to reflect and build upon the information
4. Expert input- Experts in the field are consulted and represent the most accurate prediction to the problem
What are the Delphi Process Steps?
1. Survey Development
Identifying and defining a clear research problem that needs to be solved.
Choosing a facilitator to mediate the process. The facilitator is ususally a person without bias who has in-depth knowledge of the topic to understand conversation and interpret results.
2. Participant Recruitment
Identifying a panel of experts who have insight and knowledge on the research problem.
3. Data Analysis
The facilitator starts the process by asking the first set of questions through a questionnaire, where participants are asked to provide their honest opinions. Personal opinion, experience, and previous research findings will influence their decision.
The facilitator will then disseminate the responses and identifies common themes and consolidates results by eliminating irrelevant findings.
Based on the responses, the facilitator proceeds with the second questionnaire and repeats the process.
4. Ending the Delphi Process
An unanimous and common consensus is reached.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse