Research
Publications:
Effects of a large-scale program for the construction of daycare and preschool centers on cognitive skills and female employment (w/ B. Cruz) 2023. Education Economics Full text shareable link https://doi.org/10.1080/09645292.2023.2254516
The Impacts of the Age of Majority on the Exposure to Violent Crimes. Empirical Economics (w/ Tirso, C.) 2023; 64:983–1023. Full text shareable Link https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02262-0 Versão working paper - português
The Effects of Health Spending on the Propagation of Infectious Diseases, Health Economics (w/ E, Mattos and F. Patriota) 2021, Vol. 30 (Issue 10) 1-22 http://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4388 Available at Researchgate
Measuring Fiscal Spillovers in Brazilian Municipalities. Public Finance Review (w/ Mattos, E.). 2021;49(2):221-261. https://doi.org/10.1177/1091142121993522
Working papers:
Why Don’t Small Jurisdictions Rebel Against Central Power? Submitted
Projects:
"Health Spillovers in a Decentralized Public System", with Enlinson Mattos and Fernanda Patriota
Review Resumo com comentários (em português) Slides
VERSÃO MARÇO 2020 - RESEARCHGATE
Abstract
Unraveling the impact of health spending in one jurisdiction on health outcomes in a larger region is a first-order concern in any federation. In this paper, we propose to estimate the causal spatial spillover effects of health spending on health outcomes in Brazilian municipalities. We explore the rules governing the main federal grant to municipalities, which varies discontinuously near population thresholds, to identify the effects of exogenous increases in local health spending on neighboring towns’ health inputs and outcomes. We find that the whole region benefits by reducing infant mortality and hospitalization due to infectious diseases. The impacts on neighbors are heterogeneous: large neighbors spend more on health and hire more physicians, while small towns reduce health spending.
"Breaking up: Do Smaller Jurisdictions Provide Better Public Services?", with Daniel da Mata
Abstract
We exploit several institutional changes promoted by the 1988 Brazilian Constitution to estimate the impacts of territorial subdivisions on the quality of local bureaucracy, the provision of public services, and social outcomes. After the Constitution, most states flexibly set minimum population sizes to allow the establishment of new towns and required plebiscites in the willing-to-separate districts, leading to an increase of roughly 25% in the number of local governments. Using Regressions in Discontinuity Design, we find positive effects of splits on the provision of public services, and reductions in poverty and infant mortality. Areas with territorial subdivisions employ more qualified civil servants and pay higher wages, which contributes to increase local income inequality. Nonetheless, the analysis suggests that the country as a whole may be worse off, as the cost of public services provision is higher in the created towns.
Assessing a quasi-experiment spillover: Evidence from a grant to Brazilian municipalities, with Enlinson Mattos
Abstract
In which extent the impact of an unconditional transfer to a municipality may be affected if a bordering town also receives the transfer? In this paper, we test whether a federal grant to Brazilian municipalities, Municipalities' Participation Fund (FPM), differently affects municipal expenditures depending on the bordering towns, and how municipalities react to fiscal variation of neighbors. We use the the fact that FPM is distributed according to the local population, and changes abruptly at some thresholds. We estimate the impacts of own and neighbors' FPM considering bordering towns near different cutoffs. We show that part of the flypaper effect of FPM on local economies that has been estimated in the literature can be explained by neighboring municipalities' grants. Fiscal spillovers are generally positive, with the exception of spending in health and sanitation for some groups. We also consider a sample of neighbors that are distant from the thresholds, and we show that in these situations the differences on estimations when we control for the neighbors’ FPM are not substantial.
The links between fiscal federalism, political alignment and elections - com Tiago Cisalpino
PDF SSRN Why big cities rebel more against central power? (comentários em português)
Abstract
Does economic dependence of small towns on federal grants lead to electoral support? To answer this question, we use an exogenous rule of distribution to estimate the effects of the main federal transfer to Brazilian small towns on the results of local elections. We find that more unconditional grants benefit the central government party, whereas the main opposition party loses votes on mayoral and presidential races. The hypothesis is that enforcing economic dependence of small towns on central government's grants can be a channel of political alignment - it is more difficult for a local politician to oppose the federal government when it is too dependent on it. On the other hand, larger cities can be a resilient place of opposition, once the size of government is smaller and where average income fluctuates more, especially in periods of low economic growth.
Homicídios e Maioridade Penal em Minas Gerais: Um Estudo em Densidade Descontínua - com Cesar Tirso
Banner com resumo dos resultados
Resumo
This research evaluates the impacts of the age of criminal law by analyzing the distribution of murders that occurred between 2012 and 2016 in Minas Gerais, where the victims were young people close to 18 years. We used a unique feature of the report cards obtained from the Public Security Observatory, which includes, in addition to the age and race of the victim, the relationship with the perpetrator. Considering young and black men, about 80% of victims, we found an increased chance of being murdered after age 18. We found a small reduction in femicide crimes, which shows that women are less exposed than men to possible aggression when they are of age. Finally, we estimate the age of the perpetrator, and show that the legal majority does not affect potential perpetrators of femicide crimes. Results show that increased exposure to crime after age 18 outweighs any deterrent effect due to stricter punishment.
Effects of a large-scale program of childcare provision on cognitive skills and women’s participation in the labor market - com Breno Cruz
Abstract
This paper aimed to assess the impacts of a nationwide construction program of daycare centers in Brazil named Proinfância. Estimates using differences in differences with paring by the nearest neighbor indicate a significant increase of 2.6% on the attendance rate in early childhood education. However, there is no evidence of effects on women’s participation in the formal market or future school performance. Hence, it is worth noting that the program contributed to the increase of preschool care, but it presents low performance due to technical difficulties in its implementation process.
Efeitos das Transferências Condicionais e Incondicionais sobre a Arrecadação Tributária dos Municípios Brasileiros - com Cleomar Gomes e Cristiano Pacheco
Este trabalho estima os impactos das principais transferências condicionais e incondicionais sobre a arrecadação tributária dos municípios brasileiros. São analisados dados fiscais e tributários de 5.570 municípios brasileiros entre 2000 e 2012. Vários métodos econométricos são usados para contornar o problema de endogeneidade, sobretudo, em virtude de regiões menos desenvolvidas arrecadarem menos e receberem maior montante de transferências: Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO); painel estático com efeito fixo e aleatório; e painel dinâmico. Os resultados mostram que o Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM) impacta negativamente a arrecadação tributária. Esse efeito é maior sobre o Imposto Predial e Territorial Urbano (IPTU) comparativamente ao Imposto Sobre Serviços de Qualquer Natureza (ISS), componentes da maior parcela da arrecadação tributária municipal. Por outro lado, o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) e o Fundo de Manutenção e Desenvolvimento da Educação Básica e de Valorização dos Profissionais da Educação Básica (FUNDEB) impactam positivamente. Isso sinaliza que as transferências condicionais são mais eficientes para incentivar o esforço fiscal dos municípios brasileiros.
Neste estudo, analisamos empiricamente os determinantes da taxa de inadimplência relacionada a empréstimos do Fundo Constitucional de Financiamento do Nordeste, visando estimar os efeitos de uma variação nos encargos financeiros dos empréstimos, devido a um bônus de adimplência, e no Produto Interno Bruto municipal (PIB). Utilizamos dados sobre taxa de inadimplência municipal entre 2000 e 2014 e a metodologia de Regressões em Descontinuidade. Para estimar o efeito do bônus de adimplência, nós utilizamos uma alteração nos subsídios aos pagadores na região semi-árida em 2013 e municípios na fronteira dessa região. Além disso, estimamos o efeito causal de um aumento no PIB municipal devido a uma variação “quase-aleatória” na principal transferência federal aos municípios brasileiros.
Pareceres: PPE, Estudos econômicos, Economia aplicada, Economia Ensaios, Cadernos de Saúde Pública, Public Finance Review, Applied Economics