Hi! I am Manuel Menkhoff, an Assistant Professor in Economics at the University of Copenhagen and Research Director at the ifo Institute. I am also a Member at CEBI and a CESifo Research Network Affiliate.
Research Fields: Macroeconomics, Corporate Finance, Public Economics, Behavioral Economics
Research Topics: Expectations, Firm Heterogeneity, Monetary Policy, Corporate Taxation
CV: pdf
Contact: mmk[at]econ.ku.dk
Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro (with Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Gernot J. Müller and Knut Niemann), October 2025, CEPR DP, Policy Briefs: VoxEU, X Thread
Revise and Resubmit at American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Belief Updating and AI Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Firms, April 2026, CESifo WP, Policy Brief: EconPol
Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Financial Economics
The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms, July 2026, CESifo WP, Policy Brief: VoxEU
The Impact of Interest: Firms' Investment Sensitivity to Interest Rates (with Lea Best and Benjamin Born), August 2026, CESifo WP, CEPR DP, Policy Brief: VoxEU
The Persistent Effects of Adverse Shocks to Investment (with Lea Best and Sebastian Link), July 2026, CESifo WP
Firms’ Pass-Through Dynamics: A Survey Approach (with Isabel Gödl-Hanisch), CEPR DP, Policy Brief: ifo SD, X Thread
Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, accepted
Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs (with Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen, Stefan Lautenbacher and Martin Schneider), NBER WP
American Economic Review, 2026, 116(8): 2806-2849.
Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes (with Sebastian Link, Andreas Peichl and Paul Schüle), CESifo WP, Policy Briefs: EconPol, Cato, X Thread,
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2024, 16(4): 194–222.
Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment Heterogeneity during the Covid-19 Pandemic (with Almut Balleer, Sebastian Link and Peter Zorn), CESifo WP, Policy Briefs: VoxEU, ifo SD,
International Journal of Central Banking, 2024, 20(1): 93-158.
Why Does Uncertainty Increase in Recessions? (with Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen and Martin Schneider)
Subjective Uncertainty about Job Loss Risk (with Josefina Cenzon)
Wie passen Unternehmen ihre Investitionen an die gestiegenen Zinsen an? (with Lea Best and Benjamin Born), ifo Schnelldienst digital, Vol. 5(3), 01-04, 2024.
Inwieweit geben Unternehmen die gestiegenen Einkaufspreise an ihre Kunden weiter? (with Isabel Gödl-Hanisch), ifo Schnelldienst, Vol. 75(12), 32-34, 2022.
Umsatzunsicherheit und Umsatzerwartungen deutscher Firmen zur Zeit des Ukraine-Kriegs: Gas und Gasausfall spielen eine eher geringe Rolle (with Rüdiger Bachmann, Kai Carstensen and Martin Schneider), ifo Schnelldienst, Vol. 75(6), 33-36, 2022.
The EU’s Social Connectedness to Ukraine and Its Implications for the Distribution of Ukrainian Refugees (with Lea Best), CESifo Forum, Vol. 23(4), 17-20, 2022. ifo SD (German)
Several contributions to the ifo economic forecasts (with firm-level data analysis), e.g. ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2022: Inflation, Lieferengpässe und Krieg bremsen wirtschaftliche Erholung in Deutschland, ifo Schnelldienst, 2022, Vol. 75(Sonderausgabe Juni), 01-53, 2022.