Current research/working papers

• Uncertainty Shocks in Currency Unions, with Benjamin Born and Johannes Pfeifer, CEPR Discussion paper 15579, December 2020

• The Coronavirus stimulus package: How large is the transfer multiplier?, with Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, and Ralph Luetticke, CEPR Discussion paper 14600, This version: November 2020, summary on VoxEU

• The Lockdown Effect: A Counterfactual for Sweden, with Benjamin Born and Alexander Dietrich, this version: November 2020, see also CEPR Discussion paper 14744, summary on VoxEU, a short lecture (in German) explaining the study is available here, an earlier version was published as "Do lockdowns work? A counterfactual for Sweden" in COVID Economics: vetted and real-time papers, issue 16.

• Different no more: Country spreads in advanced and emerging economies, with Benjamin Born, Johannes Pfeifer, and Susanne Wellmann, May 2020, summary on VoxEU,

• Firm expectations and economic activity, with Zeno Enders and Franziska Hünnekes, May 2020, revise and resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association, earlier version: CESifo Working Paper 7623

• The macroeconomic impact of Trump, with Benjamin Born, Petr Sedlacek, and Moritz Schularick, April 2020, earlier version: CEPR Discussion paper 13798, summary on VoxEU,

• News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact, with Alexander Dietrich, Keith Kuester, and Raphael Schoenle, April 2020, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper No. 20-12, summary in german, summary on VoxEU in english; see real time tracker of consumer expectations at Cleveland FED

• Big G, with Lydia Cox, Ernesto Pasten, Raphael Schoenle, and Michael Weber, CEPR Discussion paper 14625, April 2020

• The worst of both worlds: fiscal policy and fixed exchange rates, with Benjamin Born, Francesco D'Ascanio, and Johannes Pfeifer, October 2019, CEPR Discussion paper 14073

• Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory, with Martin Wolf and Thomas Hettig, CEPR Discussion paper 13597, March 2019

Recently published or forthcoming

• Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-run Fluctuations, with Zeno Enders and Michael Kleemann, this version: January 2020, earlier version: CESifo Working paper 4548, conditionally accepted, The Review of Economics and Statistics

• Does Austerity Pay Off?, with Benjamin Born and Johannes Pfeifer, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(2), May 2020, doi, Summary on VoxEU.org, Summary in German on Oekonomenstimme.org, replication files

• Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms, with Zeno Enders and Franziska Hünnekes, Journal of Monetay Economics, 108, 45-63, December 2019, doi

• Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions, with Alexander Kriwoluzky and Martin Wolf, Online Appendix, Journal of International Economics, 121, November 2019, doi

• The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment, with Benjamin Born, Petr Sedlacek, and Moritz Schularick, The Economic Journal 129(10), October 2019, doi, summary on VoxEU

• Fiscal policy coordination in currency unions at the effective lower bound, with Thomas Hettig, Journal of International Economics 115, November 2018, 80-98, doi

• Fixed on flexible: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession, with Giancarlo Corsetti and Keith Kuester, IMF Economic Review 65(3), 586-632, August 2017, see Summary on VoxEU.org

• Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area, with Dmitry Kuvshinov and Martin Wolf, European Economic Review 88, 42-66, September 2016

Short course on the "International Dimensions of Fiscal policy" (Syllabus)

• Lecture 1: Preliminaries

• Lecture 2: The multiplier under flexible exchange rates

• Lecture 3: The multiplier under fixed exchange rates

• Lecture 4: Non-linear effects of fiscal policy

• Lecture 5: Optimal fiscal policy in currency unions

• Lecture 6: International spillovers from fiscal policy

• Lecture 7: Government debt and deficits