The Timing of Taxes: Labor Supply Responses over the Year, SSRN WP 5766123, 2025.
Presentations: Food For Thought/ Brown Bag (Bocconi), IPP Seminar (PSE), Informal Seminar (PSE), PSE-CEPR Policy Forum
How does labor supply respond to a change in the timing of tax payments? I leverage a natural experiment in France that increased the frequency of income tax payments, shifting from three quarterly installments to twelve monthly deductions, holding the total tax burden constant. Using matched survey and administrative data, I apply a triple difference-in-differences strategy and estimate a decrease in hours worked by 2 percent, concentrated in months newly subject to payment. These findings are in line with predictions of an inattentive agent model in which taxes are more salient in periods in which they are paid. Following a sufficient statistic approach, I map the reform's effect into a wage-equivalent change. Due to a lack of salience, a 10 percent tax increase reduces hours only by an 8.55 percent cut in the gross wage. Since the reduction in hours comes mainly from workers shirking at work, the findings imply that inattention acts as a positive productivity externality.
The Welfare Effects of Paternalistic Retirement Policies - With Matthias Rodemeier and Gregory Sun
More coming soon!
Post-Brexit Imports, Supply Chains, and the Effect on Consumer Prices - With Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Joshua de Lyon, and Dilan Yang
– Published in The economics of Brexit: what have we learned?, CEPR
– Coverage (selected): Financial Times, The Economist, New York Times, BBC, Reuters, BBC Radio 4, Economics Observatory, The Guardian, The Independent