Theme and Keynote

Theme 

The Return of Inflation and Exchange Rate Realignments

Subject

We have recently witnessed again, after 2-3 decades of ‘great moderation’ followed by ‘zero lower bound’ macroeconomic policies across the world, a return of high inflation and exchange rate realignments, accompanied by a ‘return to normal’ in policy rates, and even a trend toward unusually high interest rates to combat inflation. Moreover, unfortunately, we have also been surprised by a war in Europe. These developments may have several roots, in particular the large disruptions in global politics, trade and finance due to various sources such as populism, nationalism, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and natural disasters, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulting in energy and food crises. So, what is new and what resembles past episodes of such global disturbances and divisions, and what could the right approaches and policies be? How has the trend toward ‘deglobalisation’, via decoupling and fragmentation of the world economy, been reshaping international trade and finance, and the geopolitical map? What are the welfare costs, who benefits and who loses, and can still international treaties, institutions and UN-led negotiations restore a peaceful and efficient world order? What are the implications for fiscal, monetary, trade, financial or migration policies and for the mandates of the IMF and the World Bank in these turbulent times? What paradigms, goals and values could possibly reunite our disintegrating world and its vital trade, finance and political linkages?

Topics could cover issues such as:

-        Exchange rate realignments and currency or tariff wars

- High inflation and monetary policies to reverse and contain it

- Energy and food prices and pass-through on consumer prices

- International interest rate hikes, parity conditions and exchange rates

- Supply chains and multinational firms: disruptions and reconfigurations

- ‘Wartime’ global economics: markets and politics

- ‘Deglobalisation’: decoupling and fragmentation of the global economy

- War, migration and economic policies

- Effects of economic sanctions

Keynote speaker

Cédric TILLE (Graduate Institute Geneva)