Class: Risk and Regulatory Policy 2019
1) April 11 ---Handout
Key phrases : Risk, benefit, hazard
Introduction: What is risk? What is safety? How are risks controlled in our society?
References:
- Wilson, R. and Crouch, A. C. (2001). Risk-Benefit Analysis, Cambridge, MA, Harvard Center for Risk Analysis.
- Fischhoff, B. and Kadvany, J. (2011). Risk: A Very Short Introduction 1st Edition. Oxford University Press. （中谷内一也訳『リスク 不確実性の中での意思決定 (サイエンス・パレット)』丸善出版、2015年）
2) April 18 -- Handout
Key phrases : Risk comparison
Wilson, Richard (1979). Analyzing the daily risks to life. Technology Review 81(4):41–46.
Risk regulation: Chemical substances (in Japan)
RIA document Occupational Exposure to Hexavalent Chromium: final rule
References:
- Rodricks, J. V. (2007). Calculated Risks: The Toxicity and Human Health Risks of Chemicals in our Environment. Cambridge University Press.
3) April 25 -- Handout
Key phrases: risk perception
Slovic, Paul (1987). Perception of risk. Science 236: 280-285.
Risk regulation: Cancinogens (in Japan)
RIA document : Arsenic in Drinking Water Rule Economic Analysis
Reference:
- Travis, C. C. and Hattemer-Frey, H. A. (1988). Determining an acceptable level of risk. Environmental Science & Technology 22(8): 873-876.
4) May 9 -- Handout
Key phrases: Regulatory impact analysis/assessment (RIA)
Reagan, Ronald (1981). Executive Order 12291 --Federal regulation
Clinton, William (1993). Executive Order 12866 -- Regulatory Planning and Review
Risk regulation : Traffic accidents 1 (in Japan)
RIA document : Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards;Rear Visibility
References:
- OECD (2012). Recommendation of the Council on Regulatory Policy and Governance.
- OECD (2015). Regulatory Policy Outlook 2015.
- OECD (2018). Regulatory Policy Outlook 2018.
- 岸本充生（2018）．規制影響評価（RIA）の活用に向けて：国際的な動向と日本の現状と課題．関東学院大学経済経営学会研究論集「経済系」 275: 26-44.
5) May 16 --Guest Lecture by MATSUO Makiko
Key phrases： Global risk, Risk governance,Complex risk
Risk regulation： Ebola outbreak
Further readings
- IRGC (2006). White Paper on Risk Governance: Towards an Integrated Approach. International Risk Governance Council.
- Renn, O. (2008). Risk Governance: Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World, London: Earthscan.
- Renn, O. Klinke, A. and van Asselt, M.B.A. (2011) “Coping with complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity in risk governance”, AMBIO 1(1): 67-81.
6) May 23 -- Handout
Key Phrases : Value of statistical life (VSL)
Schelling, T.C. (1968). “The Life You Save May Be Your Own,” in S.B. Chase, Jr., ed., Problems in Public Expenditure Analysis (Brookings Institute, Washington), 127-162.
Risk Regulation : Traffic accidents 2
RIA document: Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Occupant Crash Protection; Final Rule
Further readings
- Viscusi, W.K., (2018). Pricing Lives: Guideposts for a Safer Society. Princeton University Press.
- Viscusi, W.K., and J.E. Aldy (2003). “The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates Throughout the World,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 27(1): 5-76.
- US Environmental Protection Agency, “Mortality Risk Valuation”
- 岸本充生（2007）「確率的生命価値（VSL）とは何か－その考え方と公的利用」 日本リスク研究学会誌 17(2): 29-38.
7) May 30 -- Handout
Key phrases: Risk trade-off
Graham, J. D. and Wiener, J. B. (1995). Confronting Risk Tradeoffs. (Chapter 1 in Risk versus Risk: Tradeoffs in protecting health and the environment.)
Risk Regulation Height of the seawall (in Japan)
RIA document : Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Occupant Crash Protection; Final Rule
Further readings
- Graham, J. D. and Wiener, J. B. eds. (1995). Risk versus Risk: Tradeoffs in protecting health and the environment. Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press.
8) June 6 -- Handout
Key phrases : Resilience, Natech
Risk regulation : Natural disasters (in Japan)
RIA document : Impact Assessment of the national speed limit for Heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) in England and Wales
References:
- Argonne National Laboratory, Resilience: Theory and Applications.
- Pęciłło, M. (2016). The concept of resilience in OSH management: a review of approaches. Int J Occup Saf Ergon. 22(2): 291–300.
- 岸本充生（2014）．Natech（自然災害起因の産業事故）リスクの評価と管理．安全工学 53(4): 214-219.
- Mulargia, F. et al. (2017). Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used? Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 264: 63-75.
9) June 13 -- Handout
Key phrases: Nudge, Heuristic, biases, system 1 and system 2
Thaler, R. H. and Sunstein, C. R. (2006). Libertarian paternalism. The American Economic Review 93(2): 175-179.
Risk regulation: Fire safety (in Japan)
RIA document: RIA on the ban on the sale of non-child-resistant cigarette lighters in Japan (ライターの消費生活用製品安全法における特定製品及び特別特定製品への追加に係る事前評価書)
Further readings
- Cass R. Sunstein, Nudging: A Very Short Guide, 37 J. Consumer Pol'y 583 (2014).
- Thaler, R. H. and Sunstein, C. R. (2009). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. Penguin Books. （リチャード・セイラー, キャス・サンスティーン著『実践 行動経済学』日経BP社．）
- Obama, B. (2015). Executive Order 13707 -- Using Behavioral Science Insights to Better Serve the American People.
10) June 20 -- Handout
Questions and Answers.
Review of the previous class.
11) June 27 -- Handout
Key phrases: Trans-science, regulatory science, Post-normal science
Weinberg, A. M. (1972). Science and Trans-Science. Minerva 10(2): 209-222.
Regulatory Impact Analysis (in the U.S.)
RIA document :
Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Clean Power Plan Final Rule (2015)
Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Review of the Clean Power Plan: Proposal (2017)
Further readings
- Jasanoff, S. (2011). What is the regulatory science? Concept and history in United States and in Japan ─ Interview with Professor Sheila Jasanoff ─. Clinical Evaluation. 39（1）：1-16
12) July 4 -- Handout
Key term: Risk communication
Fischhoff, B. (1995). Risk Perception and Communication Unplugged: Twenty Years of Process’. Risk Analysis 18(2): 137-145.
Risk regulation: Crime prevention (in Japan and the US)
RIA document : The Criminal Justice Act 1988 (Offensive Weapons) (Amendment) Order 2016 in the UK
Further readings:
- National Research Council (1989). Improving Risk Communication. National Academies Press.
- Donohue and Levitt (2001). The impact of legalized abortion on crime. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):249–275.
- Reyes (2007). Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 7(1) Article 51.
- Donohue and Levitt (2019). The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades. NBER Working Paper No. 25863, Issued in May 2019.
- 日工組 社会安全研究財団 (2019) , 犯罪に対する不安感等に関する調査研究― 第6回調査報告書 ―.
13) July 11 --- Handout
Key term: Risk governance
IRGC Risk Governance Framework (link)
Risk regulation: ”All Hazard Approach"
World Economic Forum (WEF). Global Risks Report 2019. (link)
UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies – 2017 Edition (link)
Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University, “Global Challenges: 12 Risks that threaten human civilization” (link)