Testing the Political Waters

by Jonah Rand, Treasurer and Reporter

Current Event/Politics

Biden’s Foreign Policy

The 2020 election was quite tumultuous and heavily focused on domestic policy, including the economy, racial justice, and healthcare. While those issues were on the tops of voters’ minds, the geopolitical climate is heating up, and Biden aims to settle the waters. The Biden Administration is taking a far different stance on several aspects of American global policy than Trump’s administration. Biden's differing political views and strategies than former President Trump are bound to change relationships with world leaders.

Biden’s policy starkly contrasts with Trump’s. Biden has reverted back to the Obama Administration's approach on Putin and the Russian government: firm and direct. Biden aimed to address the Solarwinds cyberattack, one of the largest cyberattacks on the U.S. along with attempts to interfere with U.S. elections. The administration did not directly follow with sanctions but did internationally condemn the Russian government’s actions. On top of that, the opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was poisoned in August of last year, was sentenced by Russian Courts after returning to Moscow. Then, the Biden administration called for the release, increasing tensions. The most recent feud between the two governments has been Russian encroachment on the Russian-Ukraine border, Russian-occupied Crimea, and sections of the Black Sea. The EU estimated that 100,000 Russian troops had amassed at the border, which concerned NATO. Russia stated it was a military exercise but they have used similar statements as justification before annexing other territories in the past. With increased Russian presence in the Black Sea with the blockage foreign shipping vessels, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky grows wary. Shortly afterward, Biden contacted Putin and requested a summit alongside new sanctions. With a NATO summit around the corner in June, Russia is the most critical topic on the agenda.

The Middle East and Central Asia are experiencing two coinciding developments: Iran’s nuclear arsenal and troops in Afghanistan. President Biden has made few statements regarding Iran, a massive contrast to Trump and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Trump pulled out of Iran’s nuclear deal, which was created under the Obama Administration. Biden and his State Department have continued to state and show their willingness to restore the deal by taking steps to meet with the Iranians in Vienna and through press briefings by Jen Psaki. Those opposed, including the former president, argue the deal only aims to appease a nation that displays strong anti-United States rhetoric. In Afghanistan, Biden pushed back the date to pull out U.S. troops to September 11th of this year, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attack that engaged the U.S. into a war with Afghanistan. The date Trump promised was the 1st of May. The U.S. increased military presence with new F-18s and B-52 Stratofortress bombers. European officials and U.S. politicians have expressed concern over a possible collapse of the state once U.S. troops are removed due to the persecution of women and journalists by the Taliban. Furthermore, Biden stated he will withdraw support for the Saudi coalition in the Yemeni Civil War. Biden has left out the Israel-Palestine conflict from major policy pieces; however tensions are rising in East Jerusalem and Gaza. The Israel-Palestine Conflict, Yemeni Civil War, and Afghanistan War, plus geopolitical uncertainty with Iran all bore weight on the past two administrations; the Biden Administration kicked-off their foreign policy campaign in the Middle East in hopes of future peace and stability.

Biden is left with one of the most powerful nations in his hands and now has to represent the U.S. on the world stage. With significant developments, the administration has taken several steps against what it believes will be a tumultuous geopolitical scene.

California Recall Election

Gavin Newsom (D) was elected in 2018 as the 40th governor of California. His current position is one of many government positions in his career. Newsom was on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from 1997 to 2004, then later served as mayor from 2004 to 2010. He was elected as California's lieutenant governor and held the position until he became governor in 2019. He is one of the most well-known governors in the U.S. but has not sustained a high approval rate in past months. The Public Policy Institute of California found that Newsom has sustained a 54 percent approval between January and March. That number is far from his high of 65 percent in May of 2020. Now, he faces a recall election before the end of 2021.

California is no stranger to recall elections. In 2003 Arnold Shawrzannegger (R) won the recall effort for Gray Davis (D). The state possesses one of the lowest overall thresholds for signatures in a recall effort. Only 12 percent of the total voters in the election that elected the original official are needed to sign the recall petition.

While the Californian public previously attempted recall efforts, this is the first to reach the signature requirement. The petition started in June 2020 and was extended due to the health restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Several people are currently running to replace Newsom, including the prominent former GOP mayor of San Diego, Kevin Faulconer. Additionally, John Cox, a major investor, lost the gubernatorial election multiple times. Two other Republicans include Doug Ose, who represents the suburbs of Sacramento in the United States Congress, and Richard Grenell, a former diplomat under the Trump Administration. However, the most surprising name in the run for governor is Olympian and TV star Caitlyn Jenner. This was a major shock, but many media outlets made connections from her surprise announcement to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s in 2003. The previously named candidates are only a few of over 100 names on the replacement list. In a recent poll by SurveyUSA conducted in early May, Newsom was polling at a positive 47 percent when SurveyUSA asked 642 registered voters whether they would vote for him to stay in office. An alarming 36 percent vouched they would vote to recall him, while seventeen percent were undecided. The highest polling Republicans were John Cox at nine percent along with Richard Grenell and Katlyin Jenner, both at five percent. While Gavin Newsom won his election with a considerable margin, polls and pundits point that Newsom will greatly struggle in future events of the election.

2022 Senate Elections

The 2022 election, commonly known as the midterms, must occur on the first Tuesday of November. The election also includes gubernatorial, U.S. congressional, and other statewide elections. While there are 435 seats, the 2022 U.S. Senate elections equal a finite 34 with many retirements, creating an exciting election night. There are currently five known retirement plans with a high possibility of future announcements. This section will culminate with reports from Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Ballotpedia from states that are expected to be battlegrounds or having an eventful election.

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) is the current senator and announced his retirement. While the factor of incumbency was lost, the state will stay a safe red state.

Alaska: While, Lisa Murkowski (R) did not announce her retirement, it appears she has a strong chance of winning her election; she will face a harsh pro-Trump primary competition after she voted to impeach him earlier this year. With Ranked-Choice Voting, also known as Instant Runoff Voting, she has a solid electoral base.

Arizona: Mark Kelly (D), the astronaut, beat Martha McSally in a special election for 2020. He is now up again for a full term (6 years) in 2022. Arizona was not a safe state for Democrats in 2020; this is the first time two Democrats have held Arizona’s two Senatorial seats since 1953. Kelly now needs to fight to preserve his seat in the now Democrat leaning state.

Georgia: Similar to Mark Kelly, Rafael Warnock (D), a pastor, needs to keep his seat in the 2021 runoff, making the Senate 50-50. For the Democrats to keep the Senate, he must win reelection. Like Arizona, the state turned blue for the first time since Jimmy Carter won the state in the late 1970s.

Missouri: Roy Blunt (R) announced he is not seeking reelection in 2022. After his narrow margin win in 2016 of 2.6 percent in a safe state, Missourians are taking his word for it; however, the Republicans will most likely easily sustain his seat.

Nevada: This state went to Biden by 2.4 percent and is likely to lean towards Democrat for reelection runner Cathrine Cortez-Masto (D). So far, this election is the quietest out of the battleground states and would be a massive win for Republicans if they can pick up the senate seat.

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) faces a similar battle to Senator Cortez-Masto. She is seeking reelection in a Democrat leaning state. She may face a steep uphill battle if the popular governor who publicly expressed interest in running, Chris Sununu, runs. If he does, this is a significant pick-up target for the Republicans that the Democrats need to sustain.

North Carolina: Richard Burr (R) currently serves as senator but announced his retirement and with four other Republicans. North Carolina is known as an inelastic swing state, meaning it has a small preferential margin to one party—in this case, Republicans—and goes to the opposition rarely, like Obama’s win of the state in 2008. However, Democrats seek this as a secondary pick-up, but they have a tough electoral battle ahead.

Ohio: This state, categorized as a likely red state after moving away from its swing-state history, will see an open seat in 2022. Rob Portman (R) announced his retirement, and now there is a tumultuous primary ahead for Republicans looking to take his seat.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania went to Biden by 1.2 percent; plus, Democrats hold a majority of statewide elected officials. Pat Toomey (R), currently serving as Senator for the seat, announced his retirement. The Republican primary looks like a pro-Trump candidate will be the front runner versus Toomey, who voted to impeach Trump in January. The Democrats are looking to make this their primary pickup, and for a safe majority of 51 or more, they need to win this election.

According to recent polling, the 2022 election is still up for grabs. A likely red wave year is facing the Democrats, and more blue seats are required to keep and expand their majority in the Senate. The senate cannot be gerrymandered like house states, where it looks as if multiple representatives will be drawn out of their districts. The campaigning for 2022 is on the horizon, and this is a referendum on both parties’ rhetoric from 2020.

DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints expressed by the various authors in this paper do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints of Kamiak High School or The Gauntlet.

Sources

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